Hello Everyone,
Marin IJ ran a front page article 12.17.09 that was unusually well-balanced, at least after one got past the headline:
Marin home prices buck Bay Area trend of increases
http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_14018255
The article credited some of the information used to La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, which published an online article a couple of days later.
Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091217.aspx
Read the articles for full details but the general 'drift' was:
Bay area home prices down from October, but up from November '08, the 2nd month in a row of year over year price increases; Bay Area foreclosure sales in November represented 32.5% of all sales activity, up slightly from October, but down substantially from 46.8% in November of '08; DQ article discussed general speculation and some concern over a possible 'shadow inventory' that may result in one more wave of coming foreclosures but noted foreclosure resales have declined this year due to shift in tactics by lenders to the pursuit of short sales and loan modifications rather than foreclosures in many instances. DQ also noted 'jumbo' loan availability improving at 29.5% of all purchases in November, down from 30.9% in October but up from only 24% a year ago. (Limited availability of these loans still acting as a drag on the upper end market here in Marin) Article also noted 22.4% of all BayArea real estate transactions in November appeared to be cash sales, and 15.7% of sales were to absentee buyers.
Lots of activity brewing here in Marin belies the belief that the buyers have all shuffled off for a long winter's nap. Inventory low, activity impressive.
Single Family Residence (SFR):
Sold in November '09- 167, In Nov. '08-- 90, In Nov. '07 140
Accepted offers Nov '09- 230, In Nov. '08-89, In Nov. '07 142
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 129.9%, Nov. 08-56.3%, Nov '07- 88.8%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-27.8%, Nov. '08- 9.1%, Nov. '07 16.7%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5, Nov.'08- 10.9, Nov. 07-6.1
Number of SFR's sold YTD as of December 15 at 1559, finally catching up to and surpassing the YTD figure for the same date in '08, drawing ahead by 2.4%
Condominiums:
Have slowed their formerly torrid pace during the last couple of months, with YTD unit sales at 477 as of Dec 15 vs. 491 at the same time in '08, down 2.8%. Current high levels of accepted offers and low months supply of inventory indicate lots of action still taking place in the Marin County condo market.
Sold in November '09- 41, In Nov. '08-- 47, In Nov. '07 35
Accepted offers Nov '09- 81, In Nov. '08-47, In Nov. '07 28
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 132.8%, Nov. 08-67.1%, Nov '07- 39.4%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-38.8%, Nov. '08- 15.4%, Nov. '07 8.9%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5.1, Nov.'08- 6.5, Nov. 07-8.9
(Data immediately above courtesy of Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. Data believed accurate but not verified)
Remember when looking at sales figures and price levels that 50.8% of all SFR's and 63% of all condo's sold in the County in November were in Novato and San Rafael. This significantly skews the averages and the medians. Your experienced local REALTOR can help you with current values in your neighborhood.
Dow Jones ended the week down 1.4 %, the biggest decline in over a month, according to the 12.19 Wall Street Journal, which went on to say "an earnings-fueled rally bolstered technology stocks" Friday, helping the market to recover partially from a 44 point drop earlier in the day which, it said, was caused by concern about "sovereign credit and the global economy". These kinds of concerns will be around for a while and 2010 shaping up to be an interesting and very possibly pivotal year. We will see what happens.
More next time----.
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holidays and the New Year,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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Sunday, December 20, 2009
Sunday, December 6, 2009
12.6.2009
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows inventory down in every city/town covered by the report. Percentage in contract up in 8 of the 13 covered locations. Total Single Family Homes sold YTD as of Dec 1 was 1472 vs. 1481 at the same time last year or minus only 6/10 of one percent--- a nice catch-up over the last couple of months. Condo YTD unit sales at 451 vs. 2008's 474, holding steady since last report at -4.8% compared to a year ago.
Reports on U.S. economy unexpectedly good last week, especially jobs report. This could be bad news for future interest rates, including mortgages. We will see. Some folks still worried about "shadow inventory" of homes about to be foreclosed upon or recently foreclosed coming on the market and further depressing prices. One never knows for sure, but percentage in contract for every price point of both SFR's and Condo's is up since last report. SFR's under $1million at over 46% and Condo's over 47%. These are very high levels! Percentage in contract starting to inch up for pricier homes in the $1million to $3million-plus range as well.
Market slower now as we approach the Holidays, but serious buyers and sellers are still in the game. As I have said here before, a great time for buyers to make deals with less competition from those who are taking time off from their search until after the New Year.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holiday Season,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows inventory down in every city/town covered by the report. Percentage in contract up in 8 of the 13 covered locations. Total Single Family Homes sold YTD as of Dec 1 was 1472 vs. 1481 at the same time last year or minus only 6/10 of one percent--- a nice catch-up over the last couple of months. Condo YTD unit sales at 451 vs. 2008's 474, holding steady since last report at -4.8% compared to a year ago.
Reports on U.S. economy unexpectedly good last week, especially jobs report. This could be bad news for future interest rates, including mortgages. We will see. Some folks still worried about "shadow inventory" of homes about to be foreclosed upon or recently foreclosed coming on the market and further depressing prices. One never knows for sure, but percentage in contract for every price point of both SFR's and Condo's is up since last report. SFR's under $1million at over 46% and Condo's over 47%. These are very high levels! Percentage in contract starting to inch up for pricier homes in the $1million to $3million-plus range as well.
Market slower now as we approach the Holidays, but serious buyers and sellers are still in the game. As I have said here before, a great time for buyers to make deals with less competition from those who are taking time off from their search until after the New Year.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holiday Season,
Fred
Sunday, November 22, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 11.21.09
Hello Everyone,
The week ended on mixed news.
The Marin IJ ran a welcome, though recently rare headline Friday November 20, "Marin home prices,sales rise", citing year over year increases from October '08 to October '09 both in Marin and for much of the Bay Area.
An article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, Thursday, November 19, titled "Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since '07" reported "The Bay Area's housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy last month as fewer distressed properties sold-----. The nine-county region posted a modest year-over-year gain in its median sale price-the first in nearly two years-----."
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091119.aspx
Here in Marin County sales of Single Family Residences under $1million continued to be hot and hotter, with 264 of 567 (46.5%) MLS-listed homes in contract on November 17. Homes on the upper end a different story with 19% of $1million-$2million homes in contract, 14% of $2million-$3million homes, and only 9% of homes over $3million. Year-to-date sales of SFR's in the County at 1390 compared to 1429 at the same time last year, or -2.7%, a significant and continued improvement from the -5.8% at last report. Average days on market at 106 compared to 87 last year at this time. Average list price $1,053,208 and average sold price $1,000,819.
Condominium inventory remained roughly static at 305 vs. 309 at last report. 288 of these were under $1million, with the average list at $391,046 and the average sale at $377,874. Of these, 135 units, or 46.88% were in contract on November 17. Out of the other 17 "high-end" units, only 1 was in contract. As of November 17, 428 units had sold YTD vs. 450 at the same time last year, or -4.8%, slightly less than the -4.5% at last report.
Marin County real estate market split between brisk under-$1million market with buyers feeling more of a sense of urgency now, and more sluggish upper-end market where opportunity still abounds. A story circulating last week had a property formerly listed at over $4million going into contract at under $3million. These deals will not last forever! Experienced local REALTORS know the difference between a bargain and a white elephant. Let one of them help you!
More next time---
Until then,
Happy Thanksgiving to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
The week ended on mixed news.
The Marin IJ ran a welcome, though recently rare headline Friday November 20, "Marin home prices,sales rise", citing year over year increases from October '08 to October '09 both in Marin and for much of the Bay Area.
An article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, Thursday, November 19, titled "Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since '07" reported "The Bay Area's housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy last month as fewer distressed properties sold-----. The nine-county region posted a modest year-over-year gain in its median sale price-the first in nearly two years-----."
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091119.aspx
Here in Marin County sales of Single Family Residences under $1million continued to be hot and hotter, with 264 of 567 (46.5%) MLS-listed homes in contract on November 17. Homes on the upper end a different story with 19% of $1million-$2million homes in contract, 14% of $2million-$3million homes, and only 9% of homes over $3million. Year-to-date sales of SFR's in the County at 1390 compared to 1429 at the same time last year, or -2.7%, a significant and continued improvement from the -5.8% at last report. Average days on market at 106 compared to 87 last year at this time. Average list price $1,053,208 and average sold price $1,000,819.
Condominium inventory remained roughly static at 305 vs. 309 at last report. 288 of these were under $1million, with the average list at $391,046 and the average sale at $377,874. Of these, 135 units, or 46.88% were in contract on November 17. Out of the other 17 "high-end" units, only 1 was in contract. As of November 17, 428 units had sold YTD vs. 450 at the same time last year, or -4.8%, slightly less than the -4.5% at last report.
Marin County real estate market split between brisk under-$1million market with buyers feeling more of a sense of urgency now, and more sluggish upper-end market where opportunity still abounds. A story circulating last week had a property formerly listed at over $4million going into contract at under $3million. These deals will not last forever! Experienced local REALTORS know the difference between a bargain and a white elephant. Let one of them help you!
More next time---
Until then,
Happy Thanksgiving to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, November 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 11.6.2009
Hello Everyone,
According to Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest program, Marin County Single Family Residences for sale at the end of October represented just a 5.6 month supply. Condo's even lower with only a 4.4 months worth of inventory. Just last month there was an 8 month supply of SFR's and a 5.3 month supply of condo's! Accepted offers for the month for SFR's are at 137% of new listings and 35% of inventory compares to 61% and 16% last month. October Accepted offers on Condo's at 103. This is also 137% of new listings and it is 48% of existing inventory. Compares to September's 97.5% and 29.6%. Bottom line--- increasing sales and decreasing inventory.
Listing agents starting to set offer dates again for attractively priced homes, especially REO's (bank-owned real estate). Many of these are attracting multiple offers which often go over asking price but not necessarily by a large margin. One listing agent in Novato recently had multiple offers on a property, had the deal fall through twice. The property had multiple offers each of three times it was on the market. It closed escrow on the third try, over asking price. Especially in Novato, cash is king. Investors offering all cash deals or large cash down payments, quick closes, sometimes as short as 7 days. Buyers well-advised to write good solid offers but not to feel pressed into situations they are not comfortable with.
City-by-City report out this week shows 11 of 13 covered cities and towns increased percentage in contract. Greenbrae and Novato bucking the trend with decreases but probably not tremendously significant. Greenbrae most likely the result of small sample size and Novato decreasing 4 percentage points but still leading the County with 50% of all listings in contract as of November 1.
Marin County SFR and Condo reports showing all price points with an increase in percentage in contract as of November 3. Condo's under $1million, led by the Novato REO market, particularly strong at 46% in contract. SFR's under $1million at 42% in contract. See City-by-City Report for variation by city/town.
Current average Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's is 106 vs. 86 at this time last year.
For Condo's it is 116 DOM vs. 104 in Oct. '08. SFR YTD units sold at 1312 on Nov 3 vs 1393 same time last year, or -5.8%---- compares favorably with -10% at last report. Condo YTD units sold at 407 vs 426 last year or -4.5%-- a slight improvement over last report's -4.8%. Average sold prices still down with SFR's at $996,458 vs. $1,298,170 last year and Condo's at $372,301 vs. '08's $495,281. Remember, this is partially a function of market-mix (meaning that lower-end homes were a higher percentage of sold homes) and not all price decline.
Market conditions look hopeful. May be anticipating economic recovery. Home Buyer Tax Credit extension approved by Congress goes to President Obama for signature.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
According to Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest program, Marin County Single Family Residences for sale at the end of October represented just a 5.6 month supply. Condo's even lower with only a 4.4 months worth of inventory. Just last month there was an 8 month supply of SFR's and a 5.3 month supply of condo's! Accepted offers for the month for SFR's are at 137% of new listings and 35% of inventory compares to 61% and 16% last month. October Accepted offers on Condo's at 103. This is also 137% of new listings and it is 48% of existing inventory. Compares to September's 97.5% and 29.6%. Bottom line--- increasing sales and decreasing inventory.
Listing agents starting to set offer dates again for attractively priced homes, especially REO's (bank-owned real estate). Many of these are attracting multiple offers which often go over asking price but not necessarily by a large margin. One listing agent in Novato recently had multiple offers on a property, had the deal fall through twice. The property had multiple offers each of three times it was on the market. It closed escrow on the third try, over asking price. Especially in Novato, cash is king. Investors offering all cash deals or large cash down payments, quick closes, sometimes as short as 7 days. Buyers well-advised to write good solid offers but not to feel pressed into situations they are not comfortable with.
City-by-City report out this week shows 11 of 13 covered cities and towns increased percentage in contract. Greenbrae and Novato bucking the trend with decreases but probably not tremendously significant. Greenbrae most likely the result of small sample size and Novato decreasing 4 percentage points but still leading the County with 50% of all listings in contract as of November 1.
Marin County SFR and Condo reports showing all price points with an increase in percentage in contract as of November 3. Condo's under $1million, led by the Novato REO market, particularly strong at 46% in contract. SFR's under $1million at 42% in contract. See City-by-City Report for variation by city/town.
Current average Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's is 106 vs. 86 at this time last year.
For Condo's it is 116 DOM vs. 104 in Oct. '08. SFR YTD units sold at 1312 on Nov 3 vs 1393 same time last year, or -5.8%---- compares favorably with -10% at last report. Condo YTD units sold at 407 vs 426 last year or -4.5%-- a slight improvement over last report's -4.8%. Average sold prices still down with SFR's at $996,458 vs. $1,298,170 last year and Condo's at $372,301 vs. '08's $495,281. Remember, this is partially a function of market-mix (meaning that lower-end homes were a higher percentage of sold homes) and not all price decline.
Market conditions look hopeful. May be anticipating economic recovery. Home Buyer Tax Credit extension approved by Congress goes to President Obama for signature.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 19, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 10.18.2009
Hello Everyone,
October 16, 2009, Dow Jones closes at 9995, pulling back slightly from Thursday's 1-year high close of 10,062. Marin IJ pours cold water on the nascent flames with front page headline "Tough month for Marin real estate". The article compares September's real estate sales to those of August. A more appropriate comparison would be to September of 2008. That comparison would show activity up considerably while prices are admittedly down due to sales of bank-owned property and the sluggishness of the upper end of the market. IJ article notes "---Marin bucked an upward trend in home sales elsewhere in the Bay area". According to an October 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick information services, the average sales volume decline in the Bay Area comparing Sept 08 to Sept. 09 is 8.4%, while Marin County declined only 3.5%. The article states that the median price decline for the area was -8.8% while Marin declined only 6.5%. Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091015.aspx
NRT MarketQuest reveals the following statistics:
Single Family Residences: Accepted offers in Sept '08=143, in August '09, 207, and in Sept '09, 244. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 49% while Sept '09 at 80.8%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 149 units to this September's 143 units.
Condo's: Accepted offers in Sept '08=58, in August '09, 70, and in Sept '09, 89. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 55.2% while Sept '09 at 106%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 55 units to this September's 50 units. Sold median price of condo's at $395K in September of '09 actually up over both August '09 at $375K and Sept '08 at $325K.
These facts do not seem to warrant front page doom and gloom. Under- $1million sector of the market at a very robust 41.25% in contract for Single Family Residences and 43.71% in contract for condo's. The big question is when sales in the upper end of the market will re-ignite. This segment is mostly SFR's, as very few condo's in this price range, usually fewer than 20 units at any given time. Answer revolves around availability of "Jumbo" loans which have been scarce since the financial meltdown last year. Major opportunity still exists for all-cash buyers of high-end homes as well as those with large down-payments and exemplary credit/earnings.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see: http://www.fredanlyan.com
October 16, 2009, Dow Jones closes at 9995, pulling back slightly from Thursday's 1-year high close of 10,062. Marin IJ pours cold water on the nascent flames with front page headline "Tough month for Marin real estate". The article compares September's real estate sales to those of August. A more appropriate comparison would be to September of 2008. That comparison would show activity up considerably while prices are admittedly down due to sales of bank-owned property and the sluggishness of the upper end of the market. IJ article notes "---Marin bucked an upward trend in home sales elsewhere in the Bay area". According to an October 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick information services, the average sales volume decline in the Bay Area comparing Sept 08 to Sept. 09 is 8.4%, while Marin County declined only 3.5%. The article states that the median price decline for the area was -8.8% while Marin declined only 6.5%. Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091015.aspx
NRT MarketQuest reveals the following statistics:
Single Family Residences: Accepted offers in Sept '08=143, in August '09, 207, and in Sept '09, 244. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 49% while Sept '09 at 80.8%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 149 units to this September's 143 units.
Condo's: Accepted offers in Sept '08=58, in August '09, 70, and in Sept '09, 89. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 55.2% while Sept '09 at 106%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 55 units to this September's 50 units. Sold median price of condo's at $395K in September of '09 actually up over both August '09 at $375K and Sept '08 at $325K.
These facts do not seem to warrant front page doom and gloom. Under- $1million sector of the market at a very robust 41.25% in contract for Single Family Residences and 43.71% in contract for condo's. The big question is when sales in the upper end of the market will re-ignite. This segment is mostly SFR's, as very few condo's in this price range, usually fewer than 20 units at any given time. Answer revolves around availability of "Jumbo" loans which have been scarce since the financial meltdown last year. Major opportunity still exists for all-cash buyers of high-end homes as well as those with large down-payments and exemplary credit/earnings.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see: http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics
10.4.09
Hello Everyone,
Unemployment up, Dow Jones down. October 2 Wall Street Journal runs a headline on the "Marketplace" front page: "Cruel September for Car Makers" citing sales drops of of 45% for GM and 42% for Chrysler following the termination of the "Clunker" rebate program. An article in the "Money and Investing" section of the same paper announces "Tax Free Bonds Reach a 40-Year Low", goes on to cite high demand and limited supply and predicts the trend won't end anytime soon. Just below that, another article titled "Mortgage Rates Below 5%"--- the lowest since last May 28, according to the article. Fed Open Market Committee on Sep 23 announces its decision to hold interest rates at historic lows but concerns about inflation spark speculation that this party won't last forever. Everyone hedging their bets, not knowing for sure what will happen next.
What we know for sure is that there will be an economic recovery. What we don't know is the timing. Lots of talk among buyers and sellers and even among real estate professionals about a possible next wave of bank-owned property hitting the market and about whether the housing crisis that began in the sub-prime markets will bleed over into the upper end. Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity. Many investors jumping in to the real estate market along with those just looking for a home they can afford. Some still waiting on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. This may or may not materialize. As a friend of mine is fond of saying "better is the enemy of good"!
What went up and what went down:
Marin County "City-by-City" report shows out of 13 communities monitored, 8 increased their percentage in contract since last month, 4 declined, and 1 remained about the same. Sausalito, Belvedere and Tiburon offering the best opportunities right now with 14.1%,12.8%, and 11.1%, respectively, in contract.
Marin County Single Family Residences showing fairly stable percentages in contract across all price ranges with only minor changes. Inventory up slightly from 1199 at last report to 1213 units on Sept 28. With the exception of certain very desirable properties, homes in the $2million-plus range continue to offer major opportunities to well-heeled buyers. Overall YTD units sold at 1119 on Sept 29 vs. 1253 on the same date last year, or -10.62%---- another increase from last report's -11.3%, so headed in an encouraging direction.
Condo's inventory down 1 unit from 324 to 323 while 4 additional units in contract lifted the overall percentage in contract modestly from 40.43% to 41.8%. Average Days on Market for Marin Condo's at 116 and average sales price at $375,522 compared to 105 and $504,385 last year at the same time. Much of the price disparity a product of market-mix, with lots of lower-priced bank-owned properties populating the lower end of the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Unemployment up, Dow Jones down. October 2 Wall Street Journal runs a headline on the "Marketplace" front page: "Cruel September for Car Makers" citing sales drops of of 45% for GM and 42% for Chrysler following the termination of the "Clunker" rebate program. An article in the "Money and Investing" section of the same paper announces "Tax Free Bonds Reach a 40-Year Low", goes on to cite high demand and limited supply and predicts the trend won't end anytime soon. Just below that, another article titled "Mortgage Rates Below 5%"--- the lowest since last May 28, according to the article. Fed Open Market Committee on Sep 23 announces its decision to hold interest rates at historic lows but concerns about inflation spark speculation that this party won't last forever. Everyone hedging their bets, not knowing for sure what will happen next.
What we know for sure is that there will be an economic recovery. What we don't know is the timing. Lots of talk among buyers and sellers and even among real estate professionals about a possible next wave of bank-owned property hitting the market and about whether the housing crisis that began in the sub-prime markets will bleed over into the upper end. Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity. Many investors jumping in to the real estate market along with those just looking for a home they can afford. Some still waiting on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. This may or may not materialize. As a friend of mine is fond of saying "better is the enemy of good"!
What went up and what went down:
Marin County "City-by-City" report shows out of 13 communities monitored, 8 increased their percentage in contract since last month, 4 declined, and 1 remained about the same. Sausalito, Belvedere and Tiburon offering the best opportunities right now with 14.1%,12.8%, and 11.1%, respectively, in contract.
Marin County Single Family Residences showing fairly stable percentages in contract across all price ranges with only minor changes. Inventory up slightly from 1199 at last report to 1213 units on Sept 28. With the exception of certain very desirable properties, homes in the $2million-plus range continue to offer major opportunities to well-heeled buyers. Overall YTD units sold at 1119 on Sept 29 vs. 1253 on the same date last year, or -10.62%---- another increase from last report's -11.3%, so headed in an encouraging direction.
Condo's inventory down 1 unit from 324 to 323 while 4 additional units in contract lifted the overall percentage in contract modestly from 40.43% to 41.8%. Average Days on Market for Marin Condo's at 116 and average sales price at $375,522 compared to 105 and $504,385 last year at the same time. Much of the price disparity a product of market-mix, with lots of lower-priced bank-owned properties populating the lower end of the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 9.15.09
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones closed on Friday,September 18 above 9800--- a pretty good week !
LaJolla, CA-based MDA Data Quick ran the an article headed:
Bay Area August home sales and median price fall
saying that although Bay Area sales fell August compared to July, they were still 4% higher than in August of 2008, a trend they noted has now continued for 12 consecutive months. Blaming the drop on "a thinner inventory of distressed properties for sale, (and) fewer 'bargains' ", the article went on to quote MDA Data Quick President, John Walsh---- "people are still concerned about job security, and about how many foreclosures might yet hit the market. " "There are ongoing reports of mortgage delinquencies rising, yet the number of homes being foreclosed on has trended down lately. It’s bred a lot of uncertainty among the pundits and the public about how many more foreclosures are coming, when they’ll hit, and what impact they’ll have on prices.”
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090917.aspx
Here in Marin County, inventories of both single family homes (SFR) and condo's increased modestly.
Numbers of newly-listed SFR's were up considerably from last report at 140 vs. 98, while "sold" listings dropped from 89 to 51, most likely reflecting the pause from the Labor Day holiday, its anticipation and aftermath. Contingent listings doing reasonably well at 95 compared to 105 at last report. Inventory of SFR's overall at 1199 compared to last report's 1156 with percentage in contract up again to 27.69% overall and up to a very strong 40.13% for properties under $1million. In fact, the percentage in contract of every SFR price point increased with the exception of the over-$3million segment which declined from 6.31% to 4.5% on the strength of only a two listing change. Translation--- sample size too small to be statistically significant. Year-to-date (YTD) SFR units sold at 1048 compared to the same time last year when they were at 1181. Difference -11.3%, a bit more negative than last report's -10.46% figure.
Condominiums new listings at 27 compared to 32 at last report, a slight drop. Sold listings holding steady for the period at 19, pendings also at 19, and contingent's dropping from 39 to 21 perhaps reflecting the "thinner inventory of distressed properties" discussed above. Total condo listings dropped slightly from 331 to 324 and percentage in contract also dropping a bit from 42.9% to 40.43% overall and from 44.65% to 42.39% in the under-$1million segment. Still putting forth a pretty good showing.
Number of condo's sold YTD down again and now at -2% compared to a year ago at 320 vs. 327 in '08 at this time--- this after several months at the beginning of the year with a large sales lead. Condo market which was the epicenter of the REO market has cooled from its earlier frenzied pace.
Lots of talk in the real estate community of multiple offers, but with a big difference from previous markets. Even with multiples, many properties not going much (if at all) over asking price. Of course there are always exceptions for prime properties. One story had a multi-million dollar home selling at a substantial profit after only a relatively brief period of ownership. Most owners will do well not to count on this kind of "bounce" but to carefully price, prepare and present their properties using the advice of an experienced local real estate professional familiar with their market.
More next time. (also, watch for the monthly city-by-city report)
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Dow Jones closed on Friday,September 18 above 9800--- a pretty good week !
LaJolla, CA-based MDA Data Quick ran the an article headed:
Bay Area August home sales and median price fall
saying that although Bay Area sales fell August compared to July, they were still 4% higher than in August of 2008, a trend they noted has now continued for 12 consecutive months. Blaming the drop on "a thinner inventory of distressed properties for sale, (and) fewer 'bargains' ", the article went on to quote MDA Data Quick President, John Walsh---- "people are still concerned about job security, and about how many foreclosures might yet hit the market. " "There are ongoing reports of mortgage delinquencies rising, yet the number of homes being foreclosed on has trended down lately. It’s bred a lot of uncertainty among the pundits and the public about how many more foreclosures are coming, when they’ll hit, and what impact they’ll have on prices.”
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090917.aspx
Here in Marin County, inventories of both single family homes (SFR) and condo's increased modestly.
Numbers of newly-listed SFR's were up considerably from last report at 140 vs. 98, while "sold" listings dropped from 89 to 51, most likely reflecting the pause from the Labor Day holiday, its anticipation and aftermath. Contingent listings doing reasonably well at 95 compared to 105 at last report. Inventory of SFR's overall at 1199 compared to last report's 1156 with percentage in contract up again to 27.69% overall and up to a very strong 40.13% for properties under $1million. In fact, the percentage in contract of every SFR price point increased with the exception of the over-$3million segment which declined from 6.31% to 4.5% on the strength of only a two listing change. Translation--- sample size too small to be statistically significant. Year-to-date (YTD) SFR units sold at 1048 compared to the same time last year when they were at 1181. Difference -11.3%, a bit more negative than last report's -10.46% figure.
Condominiums new listings at 27 compared to 32 at last report, a slight drop. Sold listings holding steady for the period at 19, pendings also at 19, and contingent's dropping from 39 to 21 perhaps reflecting the "thinner inventory of distressed properties" discussed above. Total condo listings dropped slightly from 331 to 324 and percentage in contract also dropping a bit from 42.9% to 40.43% overall and from 44.65% to 42.39% in the under-$1million segment. Still putting forth a pretty good showing.
Number of condo's sold YTD down again and now at -2% compared to a year ago at 320 vs. 327 in '08 at this time--- this after several months at the beginning of the year with a large sales lead. Condo market which was the epicenter of the REO market has cooled from its earlier frenzied pace.
Lots of talk in the real estate community of multiple offers, but with a big difference from previous markets. Even with multiples, many properties not going much (if at all) over asking price. Of course there are always exceptions for prime properties. One story had a multi-million dollar home selling at a substantial profit after only a relatively brief period of ownership. Most owners will do well not to count on this kind of "bounce" but to carefully price, prepare and present their properties using the advice of an experienced local real estate professional familiar with their market.
More next time. (also, watch for the monthly city-by-city report)
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, September 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 09.01.2009
Hello Everyone,
Hard to believe it is almost fall. Where did the summer go?
Dow Jones ended the week down just a bit over 1% after losing over 180 points on Monday and gaining back about half of that on Friday. Investors cautiously dipping their toes back into the market but watching the economic news carefully.
Here in Marin County, the City by City report, out this week shows most cities and towns trading in essentially the same range in August as they did in July. San Anselmo slipped a bit to 17.35% in contract vs. July's 23.4% while Fairfax roared ahead, accelerating from 26.67% all the way to 36.96% in contract. San Rafael and Novato still lead the County in percentage in contract with 34.44% and 49.56% respectively. Yes that is correct, nearly half the listings in Novato were in contract as of September 1!
Single Family Residences overall at 25.61% in contract, down a couple of points since the last report-- basically a balanced market. Homes in the $0-$999K price range at 37% in contract overall, much of this reflected in the previously mentioned Novato and San Rafael markets which weight the averages. Homes over $2million still an attractive opportunity for buyers at 10.92% in contract for $2-$3million homes and 6.31% for homes over $3 million. Accepted offers on SFR's at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- shows a much more active market. YTD units sold show continued improvement with 1002 units sold as of Sept. 1 vs. 1119 at the same time last year, or -10.46%. This an increase from -12.5% at last report. Let's see if this continues.
Condo's overall at 42.9% in contract, up over 4 percentage points since the last report. Condo's under $999 K (all but 13 of active listings) doing even better at 44.65%--- either way a strong sellers' market. Multiple offers back but often don't go over listing price or if so not much over. Average sold price of condo's in the County at $369,887 YTD vs $529,076 last year at the same time. As of August 31, accepted offers at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- also shows accelerating market activity. But YTD units sold still continuing to lose steam with 300 units sold as of Sept 1 vs. 301 last year, or essentially even. This after having had a substantial lead for most of the prior months.
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, in an article dated August 21 noted the local real estate market's improved prospects with the headline:
"Bay Area home sales hit 4-year high; median price up again"
The article quotes DataQuick president John Walsh, saying "----we continue to see the market moving gradually back toward a more normal balance of sales across all price ranges. The high end of the market finally has a pulse and that has led to a swift rise in the median sale price. It's the opposite of what we saw two years ago, when the credit crunch slammed the brakes on jumbo lending and sales of more expensive homes screeched to a halt.-------"
Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090821.aspx
More next time-----
Until then, have a happy and safe Labor Day Weekend.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hard to believe it is almost fall. Where did the summer go?
Dow Jones ended the week down just a bit over 1% after losing over 180 points on Monday and gaining back about half of that on Friday. Investors cautiously dipping their toes back into the market but watching the economic news carefully.
Here in Marin County, the City by City report, out this week shows most cities and towns trading in essentially the same range in August as they did in July. San Anselmo slipped a bit to 17.35% in contract vs. July's 23.4% while Fairfax roared ahead, accelerating from 26.67% all the way to 36.96% in contract. San Rafael and Novato still lead the County in percentage in contract with 34.44% and 49.56% respectively. Yes that is correct, nearly half the listings in Novato were in contract as of September 1!
Single Family Residences overall at 25.61% in contract, down a couple of points since the last report-- basically a balanced market. Homes in the $0-$999K price range at 37% in contract overall, much of this reflected in the previously mentioned Novato and San Rafael markets which weight the averages. Homes over $2million still an attractive opportunity for buyers at 10.92% in contract for $2-$3million homes and 6.31% for homes over $3 million. Accepted offers on SFR's at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- shows a much more active market. YTD units sold show continued improvement with 1002 units sold as of Sept. 1 vs. 1119 at the same time last year, or -10.46%. This an increase from -12.5% at last report. Let's see if this continues.
Condo's overall at 42.9% in contract, up over 4 percentage points since the last report. Condo's under $999 K (all but 13 of active listings) doing even better at 44.65%--- either way a strong sellers' market. Multiple offers back but often don't go over listing price or if so not much over. Average sold price of condo's in the County at $369,887 YTD vs $529,076 last year at the same time. As of August 31, accepted offers at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- also shows accelerating market activity. But YTD units sold still continuing to lose steam with 300 units sold as of Sept 1 vs. 301 last year, or essentially even. This after having had a substantial lead for most of the prior months.
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, in an article dated August 21 noted the local real estate market's improved prospects with the headline:
"Bay Area home sales hit 4-year high; median price up again"
The article quotes DataQuick president John Walsh, saying "----we continue to see the market moving gradually back toward a more normal balance of sales across all price ranges. The high end of the market finally has a pulse and that has led to a swift rise in the median sale price. It's the opposite of what we saw two years ago, when the credit crunch slammed the brakes on jumbo lending and sales of more expensive homes screeched to a halt.-------"
Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090821.aspx
More next time-----
Until then, have a happy and safe Labor Day Weekend.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, August 16, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.16.2009
For access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A very short report this week due to vacation. Regular report will resume 1st week of September. Until then wishing you all a few more weeks of happy and healthy summer activities and celebrations!
Single Family Residences. (SFR) Inventory down slightly and percentage in contract up in almost all price ranges. SFR's in general continuing to do well at over 27% in contract, and homes under $1million still hot at over 38% in contract, an increase of about 1percentage point since last report . Of course this varies considerably by area, neighborhood, condition etc. Particularly notable is a pick-up in activity on upper-end homes'. May be an early sign of recovery. We will watch this in the coming weeks to see if it signals a market shift for this segment. Overall SFR year-to-date units sold at 878 as of August 12 vs. 1004 last year at the same time, or -12.5%, a continued improvement from last report's -14.3%.
Condo inventory up by just a handfull of units, and percentage in contract around 38%, continues to reflect strong demand by investors and individuals looking for homes. Signs in recent weeks that this torrid market segment may be cooling just a bit continue as YTD units sold now at 267 as of August 12 vs. 264 last year, or up 1%. Has been slipping every week for several reports now. Lenders reportedly being quite particular about ratio of owner-occupied units to rental units in each condo development. A good statistic for prospective buyers to check out early in the game.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A very short report this week due to vacation. Regular report will resume 1st week of September. Until then wishing you all a few more weeks of happy and healthy summer activities and celebrations!
Single Family Residences. (SFR) Inventory down slightly and percentage in contract up in almost all price ranges. SFR's in general continuing to do well at over 27% in contract, and homes under $1million still hot at over 38% in contract, an increase of about 1percentage point since last report . Of course this varies considerably by area, neighborhood, condition etc. Particularly notable is a pick-up in activity on upper-end homes'. May be an early sign of recovery. We will watch this in the coming weeks to see if it signals a market shift for this segment. Overall SFR year-to-date units sold at 878 as of August 12 vs. 1004 last year at the same time, or -12.5%, a continued improvement from last report's -14.3%.
Condo inventory up by just a handfull of units, and percentage in contract around 38%, continues to reflect strong demand by investors and individuals looking for homes. Signs in recent weeks that this torrid market segment may be cooling just a bit continue as YTD units sold now at 267 as of August 12 vs. 264 last year, or up 1%. Has been slipping every week for several reports now. Lenders reportedly being quite particular about ratio of owner-occupied units to rental units in each condo development. A good statistic for prospective buyers to check out early in the game.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, August 2, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 7.31.2009
For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Economic news upbeat this week with the Wednesday (7/29) Wall Street Journal featuring a front page headline "Home Prices Rise Across U.S.", going on to say "Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years----" The Saturday (8/1) WSJ front page flashed a headline "U.S. Economy Pulls Out of Tailspin" above an article that begins "The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing-----" Also front page news in the "Money and Investing" section of that same edition was an article titled "Dow's Month Was the Best Since 2002" referring to the July performance of the widely-followed index. The piece began "Stocks closed out a blistering month------"
Bottom line is media are starting to pick up on the same themes we have been observing and reporting for months. Our opinion is that recovery will still take a while with more ups and downs, but the worst is probably over.
Monthly City-by-City report still shows plenty of buyers' opportunities here in Marin County, especially in higher-priced homes. Jumbo mortgages still challenging. One such sale closed last week after four months in escrow while buyer jumped through lender hoops. For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers still not giving away property but there are great deals available. Corte Madera, San Rafael and Novato have the highest percentage in contract as of 7/31, with 30.4%, 35.18%, and 48.97% in contract, respectively. Holding down the bottom rungs of the ladder are Belvedere, at 10% in contract, Tiburon at 11.7% and Mill Valley at 17.02%. These are very popular places to live and represent great opportunities.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory down 3 units from last report at 1207. Overall percentage in contract is 26.35%, which I am still calling "balanced". The under-$900k market, however, is hot, hot, hot at 37.52% in contract. Above $1million, opportunity increases in direct proportion to price with $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.1%, $2million to $2.9million at 10.57%, and above $3million at only 3.7%. According to NRT MarketQuest, figures for the month of July (as of the 29th) showed the ratio of accepted offers to new listings at over 110% meaning that homes are selling faster than new listings become available. Year to date units sold at 791 as of 7/28 vs. 923 at the same time last year, or a decrease in YTD units sold of 14.3%. This is actually an improvement over the last report when the number was -14.7%. Basic idea: Sales are still behind last year but interest seems to be increasing substantially!
Condo's in the County cooling just a bit from their earlier torrid pace with overall percentage in contract down a notch from 38% at last report to 37% on July 28. $0-$999k price range (all but 14 units) at 38.66% in contract compared to 39.62% at last report. YTD units sold at 247 as of 7/28 compared to 233 a year ago at this time or up 5.66%. This represents a continued decrease and compares to a +11.9% at last report. Condo sales, which were red-hot for the first half of the year seem to be taking a bit of a break, but remember, 38% in contract is still a strong market. Sellers need to be cautious, however, since pricing is still critical and over-priced listings will sit.
Hotsheet for the period 7/15 to 7/28 showed the flip-side of current market activity with 60 SFR and 15 Condo listings withdrawn or temporarily off the market during the period. Best recipe for success--- an experienced local REALTOR, a realistic attitude regarding current market pricing, excellent preparation and presentation and skillful marketing.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Economic news upbeat this week with the Wednesday (7/29) Wall Street Journal featuring a front page headline "Home Prices Rise Across U.S.", going on to say "Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years----" The Saturday (8/1) WSJ front page flashed a headline "U.S. Economy Pulls Out of Tailspin" above an article that begins "The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing-----" Also front page news in the "Money and Investing" section of that same edition was an article titled "Dow's Month Was the Best Since 2002" referring to the July performance of the widely-followed index. The piece began "Stocks closed out a blistering month------"
Bottom line is media are starting to pick up on the same themes we have been observing and reporting for months. Our opinion is that recovery will still take a while with more ups and downs, but the worst is probably over.
Monthly City-by-City report still shows plenty of buyers' opportunities here in Marin County, especially in higher-priced homes. Jumbo mortgages still challenging. One such sale closed last week after four months in escrow while buyer jumped through lender hoops. For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers still not giving away property but there are great deals available. Corte Madera, San Rafael and Novato have the highest percentage in contract as of 7/31, with 30.4%, 35.18%, and 48.97% in contract, respectively. Holding down the bottom rungs of the ladder are Belvedere, at 10% in contract, Tiburon at 11.7% and Mill Valley at 17.02%. These are very popular places to live and represent great opportunities.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory down 3 units from last report at 1207. Overall percentage in contract is 26.35%, which I am still calling "balanced". The under-$900k market, however, is hot, hot, hot at 37.52% in contract. Above $1million, opportunity increases in direct proportion to price with $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.1%, $2million to $2.9million at 10.57%, and above $3million at only 3.7%. According to NRT MarketQuest, figures for the month of July (as of the 29th) showed the ratio of accepted offers to new listings at over 110% meaning that homes are selling faster than new listings become available. Year to date units sold at 791 as of 7/28 vs. 923 at the same time last year, or a decrease in YTD units sold of 14.3%. This is actually an improvement over the last report when the number was -14.7%. Basic idea: Sales are still behind last year but interest seems to be increasing substantially!
Condo's in the County cooling just a bit from their earlier torrid pace with overall percentage in contract down a notch from 38% at last report to 37% on July 28. $0-$999k price range (all but 14 units) at 38.66% in contract compared to 39.62% at last report. YTD units sold at 247 as of 7/28 compared to 233 a year ago at this time or up 5.66%. This represents a continued decrease and compares to a +11.9% at last report. Condo sales, which were red-hot for the first half of the year seem to be taking a bit of a break, but remember, 38% in contract is still a strong market. Sellers need to be cautious, however, since pricing is still critical and over-priced listings will sit.
Hotsheet for the period 7/15 to 7/28 showed the flip-side of current market activity with 60 SFR and 15 Condo listings withdrawn or temporarily off the market during the period. Best recipe for success--- an experienced local REALTOR, a realistic attitude regarding current market pricing, excellent preparation and presentation and skillful marketing.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, July 18, 2009
The Anlyan Report Marin County Real Estate Statistics 7.18.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
According to the July 18 Wall Street Journal "The Dow ended the week up 7.3% at 8743.94, taking just five days to recover almost all the 7.4% decline of the previous four weeks-----." The article went on to say this was the strongest weekly gain for the Dow since March. Look for more volatility in stocks in the coming weeks and months, but outlook overall appears hopeful.
Here in Marin County, single family residences (SFR) gained back a bit of ground compared to 2008, with 89 homes sold between June 30 and July 14 vs. only 74 in the same period a year ago. This brought YTD unit sales up to 724 compared to 849 last year at this time or -14.7%. In our report two weeks ago the figure was -18.06% so almost a 20% improvement over the two week period. In spite of this, percentage in contract figures for SFR's slipped slightly in all except the over $3million price range with that increase due to changes in only 3 units so probably not significant. Overall SFR percentage in contract slipped from 26.7% to 25.12%, losing its toehold on "sellers' market" status and drifting back into "balanced" territory. The hot under-$1million segment also cooled just a bit from 39.06% in contract to 37.26%, still technically a strong sellers' market but with not much power behind pricing, sellers still advised to pay careful attention to recent comparable sales, stage well, and go with the flow. Inventory overall down slightly to 1210 units from 1236 at last report.
Condo inventory in the County up 5 units from 321 to 326 since the June 30 report. Condo market still red hot with 38.03% of MLS-listed units in contract as of July 14. In the under-$1million segment, a scorching 40% in contract on that date. YTD units sold slipped again for the second reporting period, but still 11.9% ahead of this time last year with 234 YTD units sold vs. '08's 206 Average price of YTD sold units at $369,173 vs. $538,912 last year at this time. Part of this of course due to price deterioration, but quite a bit of it the result of "market mix", meaning a large percentage of the units on the market are lower-end properties, many of them bank-owned foreclosures. Multiple offers not uncommon in this segment. With more foreclosure activity still to come, opportunity for interested buyers should continue for a while but won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
According to the July 18 Wall Street Journal "The Dow ended the week up 7.3% at 8743.94, taking just five days to recover almost all the 7.4% decline of the previous four weeks-----." The article went on to say this was the strongest weekly gain for the Dow since March. Look for more volatility in stocks in the coming weeks and months, but outlook overall appears hopeful.
Here in Marin County, single family residences (SFR) gained back a bit of ground compared to 2008, with 89 homes sold between June 30 and July 14 vs. only 74 in the same period a year ago. This brought YTD unit sales up to 724 compared to 849 last year at this time or -14.7%. In our report two weeks ago the figure was -18.06% so almost a 20% improvement over the two week period. In spite of this, percentage in contract figures for SFR's slipped slightly in all except the over $3million price range with that increase due to changes in only 3 units so probably not significant. Overall SFR percentage in contract slipped from 26.7% to 25.12%, losing its toehold on "sellers' market" status and drifting back into "balanced" territory. The hot under-$1million segment also cooled just a bit from 39.06% in contract to 37.26%, still technically a strong sellers' market but with not much power behind pricing, sellers still advised to pay careful attention to recent comparable sales, stage well, and go with the flow. Inventory overall down slightly to 1210 units from 1236 at last report.
Condo inventory in the County up 5 units from 321 to 326 since the June 30 report. Condo market still red hot with 38.03% of MLS-listed units in contract as of July 14. In the under-$1million segment, a scorching 40% in contract on that date. YTD units sold slipped again for the second reporting period, but still 11.9% ahead of this time last year with 234 YTD units sold vs. '08's 206 Average price of YTD sold units at $369,173 vs. $538,912 last year at this time. Part of this of course due to price deterioration, but quite a bit of it the result of "market mix", meaning a large percentage of the units on the market are lower-end properties, many of them bank-owned foreclosures. Multiple offers not uncommon in this segment. With more foreclosure activity still to come, opportunity for interested buyers should continue for a while but won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, July 5, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.30.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
7.5.2009
Hello Everyone,
A short trading week with the Dow Jones Index down over 200 points on Thursday as government reports that unemployment hit a 26 year high took a bite out of investors' confidence and put the brakes on the recent rally in equity prices. This uncertainty typically carries over into the housing market where a lack of confidence in the economy keeps many buyers in the wings. May be a good situation for contrarians with the confidence to vote their convictions with their wallets.
City-by-City report out this week shows 8 of 13 cities and towns percentage in contract down, and 5 up. Novato still leading the pack with an amazing 50.73% of MLS listings (Condo's and Single Family combined) in contract as of June 29. San Anselmo in 2nd place at 34.62%, and San Rafael a solid 3rd at 33.33%. A point of interest--- of 341 active listings in Novato, 101 were condo's, and 64 of those were in contract on June 29, a sizzling 63%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory in Marin County dropped to 1236 from 1256 at last report. Overall percentage in contract stayed about the same at 26.7%. $0-$999k price range doing best at 39.06% in contract due to relative availability of mortgage money in this segment. $1million to $1.99million homes at 16.53% in contract while $2million to $2.99million at 10.16% and $3million and up at only 7.21%--- reflecting the difficulty of getting "Jumbo" financing at this point in time. There is money out there but lenders are skittish, many requiring two independent appraisals as well as Full documentation. Lending process backed up at institutions doing these loans and taking substantially longer than was formerly the case. Individuals with cash or with large down payments in good negotiating position on higher-end homes with sellers now paying careful attention to which buyer is most likely to be successful in obtaining financing. During the month of June accepted offers on SFR's in Marin amounted to 27.7% of existing inventory and 105% of new listings (source NRT MarketQuest) , the highest in the past 24 months.
Condo's overall at 38.63% in contract on a county-wide basis with 124 of 321 MLS- listed properties in contract on June 30. There were 239 new condo listings and 88 accepted offers, or 111.4%, the highest in the past 24 months. Accepted condo offers amounted to 36.8% of total existing MLS-listed condo inventory, also a 24 month high as home buyers and investors snapped up properties at prices unheard of a year or 2 ago.
Hoping that everyone had a happy and safe 4th!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
7.5.2009
Hello Everyone,
A short trading week with the Dow Jones Index down over 200 points on Thursday as government reports that unemployment hit a 26 year high took a bite out of investors' confidence and put the brakes on the recent rally in equity prices. This uncertainty typically carries over into the housing market where a lack of confidence in the economy keeps many buyers in the wings. May be a good situation for contrarians with the confidence to vote their convictions with their wallets.
City-by-City report out this week shows 8 of 13 cities and towns percentage in contract down, and 5 up. Novato still leading the pack with an amazing 50.73% of MLS listings (Condo's and Single Family combined) in contract as of June 29. San Anselmo in 2nd place at 34.62%, and San Rafael a solid 3rd at 33.33%. A point of interest--- of 341 active listings in Novato, 101 were condo's, and 64 of those were in contract on June 29, a sizzling 63%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory in Marin County dropped to 1236 from 1256 at last report. Overall percentage in contract stayed about the same at 26.7%. $0-$999k price range doing best at 39.06% in contract due to relative availability of mortgage money in this segment. $1million to $1.99million homes at 16.53% in contract while $2million to $2.99million at 10.16% and $3million and up at only 7.21%--- reflecting the difficulty of getting "Jumbo" financing at this point in time. There is money out there but lenders are skittish, many requiring two independent appraisals as well as Full documentation. Lending process backed up at institutions doing these loans and taking substantially longer than was formerly the case. Individuals with cash or with large down payments in good negotiating position on higher-end homes with sellers now paying careful attention to which buyer is most likely to be successful in obtaining financing. During the month of June accepted offers on SFR's in Marin amounted to 27.7% of existing inventory and 105% of new listings (source NRT MarketQuest) , the highest in the past 24 months.
Condo's overall at 38.63% in contract on a county-wide basis with 124 of 321 MLS- listed properties in contract on June 30. There were 239 new condo listings and 88 accepted offers, or 111.4%, the highest in the past 24 months. Accepted condo offers amounted to 36.8% of total existing MLS-listed condo inventory, also a 24 month high as home buyers and investors snapped up properties at prices unheard of a year or 2 ago.
Hoping that everyone had a happy and safe 4th!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, June 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.16.2009
(for spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, June 7, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.5.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, May 23, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.19.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Hello Everyone,
Marin County Single Family Residencees as a group crossed over into what has been traditionally known as "sellers' market" territory for the first time in quite a while at 27.1% in contract. This largely on the strength of the under- $1million market which is incredibly hot at 40.25% in contract, led by Novato and San Rafael. The Marin IJ front page today (5/22) trumpeted "Marin Home Sales Increase", also noting that median price went from $935,000 last year to $743,500 in April of this year (this author did not verify these statistics). Article went on to quote "analysts" as saying "a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics", something we have been saying for months. Home sales in the higher end continue to languish while buyers and even real estate agents question when the supply of "jumbo" mortgage money will be turned back on. Conversations with loan brokers indicate that this supply is slowly coming back but is tightly controlled. Word is that jumbo money is becoming available for adjustable loans, but that 30 year fixed money is still expensive and difficult to obtain. Guidelines and ratios for loans being strictly observed by lenders. Unknown factor affecting home sales is a possible "bulge in the python" of new foreclosures after several months of moratorium recently observed by lenders. Large new supply of inventory could depress prices. Many buyers with cash in search of high-end properties getting extraordinary deals. Smart investors in a buying mode. SFR days on market to May 19, 108 vs. 87 at this time last year. 408 units sold so far this year compared to 520 in '08, or -21.5%. 1247 SFR's listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of May 19, 338 of them in contract.
326 Condo's Listed on the Marin MLS on May 19. 117, or 35.85% in contract. Traditionally regarded as a "sellers" market, just on the borderline of "strong sellers' "---- with one major difference------ sellers do not have the ability to dictate pricing. 156 Condo units sold YTD vs. 135 at this time last year, a 15.5% increase. DOM for YTD sales at 117 vs. last year's 95. Median price $363,808 vs. $574,547 last year, held down by the preponderance of low-end bank-owned properties on the market. End of foreclosure moratorium brings up same questions/concerns as with SFR's, but invoestors reportedly snapping up multiple properties as they look at what they consider to be bargain pricing.
More will be revealed---
In the meantime, a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Holiday to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Marin County Single Family Residencees as a group crossed over into what has been traditionally known as "sellers' market" territory for the first time in quite a while at 27.1% in contract. This largely on the strength of the under- $1million market which is incredibly hot at 40.25% in contract, led by Novato and San Rafael. The Marin IJ front page today (5/22) trumpeted "Marin Home Sales Increase", also noting that median price went from $935,000 last year to $743,500 in April of this year (this author did not verify these statistics). Article went on to quote "analysts" as saying "a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics", something we have been saying for months. Home sales in the higher end continue to languish while buyers and even real estate agents question when the supply of "jumbo" mortgage money will be turned back on. Conversations with loan brokers indicate that this supply is slowly coming back but is tightly controlled. Word is that jumbo money is becoming available for adjustable loans, but that 30 year fixed money is still expensive and difficult to obtain. Guidelines and ratios for loans being strictly observed by lenders. Unknown factor affecting home sales is a possible "bulge in the python" of new foreclosures after several months of moratorium recently observed by lenders. Large new supply of inventory could depress prices. Many buyers with cash in search of high-end properties getting extraordinary deals. Smart investors in a buying mode. SFR days on market to May 19, 108 vs. 87 at this time last year. 408 units sold so far this year compared to 520 in '08, or -21.5%. 1247 SFR's listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of May 19, 338 of them in contract.
326 Condo's Listed on the Marin MLS on May 19. 117, or 35.85% in contract. Traditionally regarded as a "sellers" market, just on the borderline of "strong sellers' "---- with one major difference------ sellers do not have the ability to dictate pricing. 156 Condo units sold YTD vs. 135 at this time last year, a 15.5% increase. DOM for YTD sales at 117 vs. last year's 95. Median price $363,808 vs. $574,547 last year, held down by the preponderance of low-end bank-owned properties on the market. End of foreclosure moratorium brings up same questions/concerns as with SFR's, but invoestors reportedly snapping up multiple properties as they look at what they consider to be bargain pricing.
More will be revealed---
In the meantime, a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Holiday to all,
Fred
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.9.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Whew, Feel the Heat!
City-by-City Report shows Novato at 43% in contract for single family residences (SFR) and condo's currently listed on MLS. Greenbrae follows at 35.14%, and San Rafael just a nose behind at 34.8%. Corte Madera also doing well at 30.48% in contract. Kentfield and Belvedere almost tied for last place with 7.89% and 8.93% (respectively) of listed homes in contract as of May 4.
County-wide, there are 1203 SFR's listed on MLS as of May 6, with 297, or 24.69% in contract, tantalizingly close to a "balanced" market. The under-$1million range hot at 37.58% in contract while upper-end homes still feeling the chill of restricted availability of "jumbo" mortgage money. Still time to get a piece of this cake before the heat melts the frosting---a golden opportunity that most likely will not last! $1-2million range at 13.7%, $2-3 million range at 10.74% and $3million and above at only 4.33% in contract! Average list price of SFR's sold YTD $1,017,204. Average sold price $960,035. Average Days on Market 112. YTD units sold 356, or 21% fewer than this time last year. Compares favorably with -25% at last report.
Condo's overall at 34.59% in contract, just short of a point higher than last month, but according to NRT Market Quest, accepted offers on condo's running at 107% of new listings in the month of April. Condo's that are selling are largely lower-end, with an average (YTD) list price of $350,127 and an average sold price of $338,037. Average days on market are 110. As of May 6, 138 condo's had sold YTD vs. 118 at the same time last year-- still ahead by 14% but losing a bit of steam compared to last month's +17.39%.
Dow Jones still volatile but trending up. Closed out the week on May 8 above 8500 and with a 164 point gain. People feeling hopeful again. So when the flow of jumbo mortgage money is turned back on, and it will---- bets are that the upper end will turn around.
More next time-----
Until then, Happy Mothers' Day and best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Whew, Feel the Heat!
City-by-City Report shows Novato at 43% in contract for single family residences (SFR) and condo's currently listed on MLS. Greenbrae follows at 35.14%, and San Rafael just a nose behind at 34.8%. Corte Madera also doing well at 30.48% in contract. Kentfield and Belvedere almost tied for last place with 7.89% and 8.93% (respectively) of listed homes in contract as of May 4.
County-wide, there are 1203 SFR's listed on MLS as of May 6, with 297, or 24.69% in contract, tantalizingly close to a "balanced" market. The under-$1million range hot at 37.58% in contract while upper-end homes still feeling the chill of restricted availability of "jumbo" mortgage money. Still time to get a piece of this cake before the heat melts the frosting---a golden opportunity that most likely will not last! $1-2million range at 13.7%, $2-3 million range at 10.74% and $3million and above at only 4.33% in contract! Average list price of SFR's sold YTD $1,017,204. Average sold price $960,035. Average Days on Market 112. YTD units sold 356, or 21% fewer than this time last year. Compares favorably with -25% at last report.
Condo's overall at 34.59% in contract, just short of a point higher than last month, but according to NRT Market Quest, accepted offers on condo's running at 107% of new listings in the month of April. Condo's that are selling are largely lower-end, with an average (YTD) list price of $350,127 and an average sold price of $338,037. Average days on market are 110. As of May 6, 138 condo's had sold YTD vs. 118 at the same time last year-- still ahead by 14% but losing a bit of steam compared to last month's +17.39%.
Dow Jones still volatile but trending up. Closed out the week on May 8 above 8500 and with a 164 point gain. People feeling hopeful again. So when the flow of jumbo mortgage money is turned back on, and it will---- bets are that the upper end will turn around.
More next time-----
Until then, Happy Mothers' Day and best wishes to all,
Fred
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.14.2009
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www/fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.31.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, March 22, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 3.20.2009
for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
3.20.2009
Hello Everyone,
Better economic news this week:
From CNNMoney.com,
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks managed gains for the second week in a row despite tumbling Friday, as investors pulled back after the recent run.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 122 points or 1.7%. However, it also managed slim gains for the week, rising for the second week in a row for the first time since last May. Full story at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
March 20 Wall Street Journal headline Informs "Under 5% Mortgages Are Likely At the Bottom", saying "The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed."
Here in the Marin County housing market, both inventory and activity are up, with exuberance of spring buoying spirits and tempting both buyers and sellers.
Single Family Residences (SFR): Inventory at 956 homes, 193 in contract, or 20.19, about a 1 point increase over two weeks ago. Still a "buyers' " market overall but mostly due to continued sluggishness in the upper end. Listings above $1million at between 5% and 12% in contract continue to be attractive buying opportunities for those flush with cash or with excellent credit and sufficient down payment. Properties under $1million at 28.7% in contract on a county-wide basis with 149 of 519 listings in contract as of March 17. Typically this would qualify as a sellers' market but sellers are cautioned that buyers continue to be particularly price and value sensitive and may wish to exercise restraint in pricing and negotiations. YTD SFR sales at 163 compared to 234 at this time last year. Average selling price at $910,508 vs last year's $1,365,544. Not necessarily an indication that housing values have declined to this extent. Market mix of homes selling comprised of more entry-level homes due to relative ease of obtaining "conforming mortgages" (up to $729,750) vs. "jumbo's". Between 3/4 and 3/17, there were 153 new listings of SFR's and125 price reductions. 73 listings went contingent, 41 pending, and 31 were sold. 26 Listings expired and 41 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's continuing their excellent run with 101 of 308 listings in contract overall, or 32.79%. In the $0-999K range, 97 of 293 listings are in contract, or 33.11%. Even the $1million-$1.99 million range has 4 of 15 units in contract, or 26.67%. Prices for sold units at $297,680 vs. last year's $584,103, or just about half. This reflecting the large numbers of REO (bank-owned) properties selling at deep discounts, particularly in Novato. Again, not necessarily an indication that condo's in the county have lost this kind of value. For an accurate assessment of market value, contact an experienced local real estate professional. Year-to-date units sold at 74 vs. 60 at this time last year, or an increase of 23.3%. For the period from 3/4/09 to 2/17/09, there were 33 new condo listings and 46 price reductions. 36 listings went contingent, 11 pending, and 15 were sold. 10 listings expired and 11 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
3.20.2009
Hello Everyone,
Better economic news this week:
From CNNMoney.com,
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks managed gains for the second week in a row despite tumbling Friday, as investors pulled back after the recent run.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 122 points or 1.7%. However, it also managed slim gains for the week, rising for the second week in a row for the first time since last May. Full story at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
March 20 Wall Street Journal headline Informs "Under 5% Mortgages Are Likely At the Bottom", saying "The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed."
Here in the Marin County housing market, both inventory and activity are up, with exuberance of spring buoying spirits and tempting both buyers and sellers.
Single Family Residences (SFR): Inventory at 956 homes, 193 in contract, or 20.19, about a 1 point increase over two weeks ago. Still a "buyers' " market overall but mostly due to continued sluggishness in the upper end. Listings above $1million at between 5% and 12% in contract continue to be attractive buying opportunities for those flush with cash or with excellent credit and sufficient down payment. Properties under $1million at 28.7% in contract on a county-wide basis with 149 of 519 listings in contract as of March 17. Typically this would qualify as a sellers' market but sellers are cautioned that buyers continue to be particularly price and value sensitive and may wish to exercise restraint in pricing and negotiations. YTD SFR sales at 163 compared to 234 at this time last year. Average selling price at $910,508 vs last year's $1,365,544. Not necessarily an indication that housing values have declined to this extent. Market mix of homes selling comprised of more entry-level homes due to relative ease of obtaining "conforming mortgages" (up to $729,750) vs. "jumbo's". Between 3/4 and 3/17, there were 153 new listings of SFR's and125 price reductions. 73 listings went contingent, 41 pending, and 31 were sold. 26 Listings expired and 41 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's continuing their excellent run with 101 of 308 listings in contract overall, or 32.79%. In the $0-999K range, 97 of 293 listings are in contract, or 33.11%. Even the $1million-$1.99 million range has 4 of 15 units in contract, or 26.67%. Prices for sold units at $297,680 vs. last year's $584,103, or just about half. This reflecting the large numbers of REO (bank-owned) properties selling at deep discounts, particularly in Novato. Again, not necessarily an indication that condo's in the county have lost this kind of value. For an accurate assessment of market value, contact an experienced local real estate professional. Year-to-date units sold at 74 vs. 60 at this time last year, or an increase of 23.3%. For the period from 3/4/09 to 2/17/09, there were 33 new condo listings and 46 price reductions. 36 listings went contingent, 11 pending, and 15 were sold. 10 listings expired and 11 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, March 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.06.2009
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Economy and stock market continue to rock and roll, with the Dow finishing the week in the 6700 range, lowest since 1997. Much of this on fears about Citibank and GM. According to the March 6 Wall Street Journal, GM now openly talking about the possibility of a "pre-packaged" bankruptcy while their auditors say they may not be able to continue operations under the current conditions----something unthinkable only months ago.
Marin City by City Analysis out this week shows Novato and San Rafael out in front of the pack at 34.2% and 27.1%, respectively, of MLS listings in-contract as of March 3. As we have discussed before, this primarily due to REO activity and resultant lower prices. Out of 13 towns and cities covered by the report, 7 showed increased percentage in contract, 5 decreased and San Anselmo remained essentially unchanged at 16%. Greenbrae at the bottom of the ladder with 0 of 20 listings in contract as of March 3.
Single Family Residences down to 19.22% in contract overall. This, primarily due to lagging sales in the over- $1million listings, which range from 6.9% to 12.55% in contract- solid buyers markets with big opportunities for those well qualified for loans or with cash to spend. Conversely, the under-$1million market at 26.15% in contract, down a bit from last month's 30.6%, but still respectable. Year to date (YTD) units sold at 133 to March 3 vs. 177 last year, a drop of 24.8% but actually a slight improvement over -27% in last month's report. Average sale price of units sold YTD is at $838,372 vs. $1,398,972 last year at the same time. This due in large part to less expensive homes selling (the under-$1million segment mentioned above), and not an indication that home prices have plummeted 40%. Days on Market (DOM) for sold listings at 116 vs. 109 a year ago. In February, there were 225 new SFR listings, 56 sales, 148 accepted offers and 121 listings expired or were cancelled (MarketQuest).
Condo's doing quite nicely at 31.2% in contract overall and 59 units sold YTD as of March 3 vs. 43 units last year at the same time, an increase of 37%. Again, average prices for units sold at $306,400 vs. last year's $600,887 a result of lower-end units selling and not an indication of a 50% collapse in value, though condominium values, particularly in northern Marin have suffered due to REO sales. DOM at117 vs. 95 at this time in 08. In February there were 75 new condo listings, 22 sales, 68 accepted offers and 46 listings expired or were cancelled (Market Quest).
Current market offers great opportunity with excellent prices. Good ability to negotiate. Great loan rates. Not likely we will see a confluence of these events again for many years. Wise buyers and sellers benefit from the experience and market knowledge of experienced local real estate professionals and loan officers/mortgage brokers-- invaluable in this kind of environment.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Economy and stock market continue to rock and roll, with the Dow finishing the week in the 6700 range, lowest since 1997. Much of this on fears about Citibank and GM. According to the March 6 Wall Street Journal, GM now openly talking about the possibility of a "pre-packaged" bankruptcy while their auditors say they may not be able to continue operations under the current conditions----something unthinkable only months ago.
Marin City by City Analysis out this week shows Novato and San Rafael out in front of the pack at 34.2% and 27.1%, respectively, of MLS listings in-contract as of March 3. As we have discussed before, this primarily due to REO activity and resultant lower prices. Out of 13 towns and cities covered by the report, 7 showed increased percentage in contract, 5 decreased and San Anselmo remained essentially unchanged at 16%. Greenbrae at the bottom of the ladder with 0 of 20 listings in contract as of March 3.
Single Family Residences down to 19.22% in contract overall. This, primarily due to lagging sales in the over- $1million listings, which range from 6.9% to 12.55% in contract- solid buyers markets with big opportunities for those well qualified for loans or with cash to spend. Conversely, the under-$1million market at 26.15% in contract, down a bit from last month's 30.6%, but still respectable. Year to date (YTD) units sold at 133 to March 3 vs. 177 last year, a drop of 24.8% but actually a slight improvement over -27% in last month's report. Average sale price of units sold YTD is at $838,372 vs. $1,398,972 last year at the same time. This due in large part to less expensive homes selling (the under-$1million segment mentioned above), and not an indication that home prices have plummeted 40%. Days on Market (DOM) for sold listings at 116 vs. 109 a year ago. In February, there were 225 new SFR listings, 56 sales, 148 accepted offers and 121 listings expired or were cancelled (MarketQuest).
Condo's doing quite nicely at 31.2% in contract overall and 59 units sold YTD as of March 3 vs. 43 units last year at the same time, an increase of 37%. Again, average prices for units sold at $306,400 vs. last year's $600,887 a result of lower-end units selling and not an indication of a 50% collapse in value, though condominium values, particularly in northern Marin have suffered due to REO sales. DOM at117 vs. 95 at this time in 08. In February there were 75 new condo listings, 22 sales, 68 accepted offers and 46 listings expired or were cancelled (Market Quest).
Current market offers great opportunity with excellent prices. Good ability to negotiate. Great loan rates. Not likely we will see a confluence of these events again for many years. Wise buyers and sellers benefit from the experience and market knowledge of experienced local real estate professionals and loan officers/mortgage brokers-- invaluable in this kind of environment.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, February 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.21.2009
Hello Everyone,
Today, Friday, February 20, The Marin IJ front page screamed "HOME PRICES IN MARIN DROP 24% IN A YEAR".
Data Quick Information Services, the La Jolla-based real estate information company, was quoted in the article as a major information source. The Data Quick website
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090219.aspx
features an article with some of the quoted information. It says, in part:
"The median has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 14 consecutive months. Its dramatic plunge is partially the result of the regional decline in home values. But the decline also reflects a shift toward more sales in the less-expensive inland markets; slower high-end sales; and buyers' preference for lower-priced foreclosures" (emphasis added). In other words, more low-end homes are selling, affecting the market mix and thus the average and median prices so that not all of the drop in prices is attributable to a loss of value.
According to Wikipedia, Mark Twain, quoting Benjamin Disraeli said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.", a reference to "the persuasive power of numbers , the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments----------"
The headline, while not technically untrue, presents an incomplete, limited, and misleading picture of the Marin County real estate market. Later, the body of the article backtracks, stating "January's decline was predominately due to the 40 condo sales with a median price of $246,000".
First, one month does not necessarily characterize the market. Second, the County does not consist of one uniform real estate market. The real estate market in each town or city has its own unique characteristics. Novato and San Rafael have experienced significant declines, particularly in the condominium market, while other towns and cities have fared significantly better. For combined Single Family and Condo results by city 1965 through 2008 email Fred at fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for free report.
As of February 17, there were 850 Single Family Residences listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. 121 of those, or slightly over 21%, were in contract. Homes under $1million doing much better, with 144 of 470 listed homes, or over 30% in contract. High-end homes, $1million and up at between 5.8% and 11.8% in contract, depending on price range making them a great target for well-heeled buyers looking for bargains. 96 SFR's sold YTD vs. 132 at the same time last year, down 27%. And yes, the average sold price is down from 08's $1,373,497 to $852,692, but remember, market-mix is a very significant portion of this drop. It does not mean last year's $1.4million home is this year's $850k home.
Condo's unit sales volume up about 70% YTD over last year at 48 vs. 08's tally of 20. And for the specific units that sold, the average sales price was $287,450 vs. last year's $641,345. Are condo's worth less than half of what they were worth last year? In a word, "no". And out of the 274 condo's currently on the Marin MLS for under $1million, 88 of them, or almost 32%, are in contract.
Have we reached a market bottom in Marin? The crystal ball is hazy. Ask again later, and more will be revealed. Investors are actively in the market, and some properties garner multiple offers, over asking price. Folks who need a place to live are still buying homes and getting great interest rates. First-time buyers are doing well with low prices and advantageous loans, especially the low-down-payment FHA loans.
Let's watch and see what happens.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Today, Friday, February 20, The Marin IJ front page screamed "HOME PRICES IN MARIN DROP 24% IN A YEAR".
Data Quick Information Services, the La Jolla-based real estate information company, was quoted in the article as a major information source. The Data Quick website
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090219.aspx
features an article with some of the quoted information. It says, in part:
"The median has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 14 consecutive months. Its dramatic plunge is partially the result of the regional decline in home values. But the decline also reflects a shift toward more sales in the less-expensive inland markets; slower high-end sales; and buyers' preference for lower-priced foreclosures" (emphasis added). In other words, more low-end homes are selling, affecting the market mix and thus the average and median prices so that not all of the drop in prices is attributable to a loss of value.
According to Wikipedia, Mark Twain, quoting Benjamin Disraeli said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.", a reference to "the persuasive power of numbers , the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments----------"
The headline, while not technically untrue, presents an incomplete, limited, and misleading picture of the Marin County real estate market. Later, the body of the article backtracks, stating "January's decline was predominately due to the 40 condo sales with a median price of $246,000".
First, one month does not necessarily characterize the market. Second, the County does not consist of one uniform real estate market. The real estate market in each town or city has its own unique characteristics. Novato and San Rafael have experienced significant declines, particularly in the condominium market, while other towns and cities have fared significantly better. For combined Single Family and Condo results by city 1965 through 2008 email Fred at fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for free report.
As of February 17, there were 850 Single Family Residences listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. 121 of those, or slightly over 21%, were in contract. Homes under $1million doing much better, with 144 of 470 listed homes, or over 30% in contract. High-end homes, $1million and up at between 5.8% and 11.8% in contract, depending on price range making them a great target for well-heeled buyers looking for bargains. 96 SFR's sold YTD vs. 132 at the same time last year, down 27%. And yes, the average sold price is down from 08's $1,373,497 to $852,692, but remember, market-mix is a very significant portion of this drop. It does not mean last year's $1.4million home is this year's $850k home.
Condo's unit sales volume up about 70% YTD over last year at 48 vs. 08's tally of 20. And for the specific units that sold, the average sales price was $287,450 vs. last year's $641,345. Are condo's worth less than half of what they were worth last year? In a word, "no". And out of the 274 condo's currently on the Marin MLS for under $1million, 88 of them, or almost 32%, are in contract.
Have we reached a market bottom in Marin? The crystal ball is hazy. Ask again later, and more will be revealed. Investors are actively in the market, and some properties garner multiple offers, over asking price. Folks who need a place to live are still buying homes and getting great interest rates. First-time buyers are doing well with low prices and advantageous loans, especially the low-down-payment FHA loans.
Let's watch and see what happens.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, February 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.06.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows most Marin County towns and cities percentage in contract down since last month's report. Sausalito at the bottom with only 2 of 39 listed properties in contract as of February 2, or 5.13%. Exceptions include San Rafael and Novato at the top of the list with 28 and 32 percent of properties in contract, respectively. Kentfield, San Anselmo and Fairfax also posted modest increases. Inventory of Single Family Residences up from 754 to 791. 153, or 19.34% of those in contract. In the under-$1million market, 122 of 433 homes in contract, or 28%. Homes above $1million a more difficult market due to new underwriting and appraisal standards. $1million to $2million range at 11.3% in contract but $2-$3million segment at only 3.75% in contract. Of 66 homes currently listed at $3million and above, only 4 in contract on February 2, or 6%. High-end buyers with cash in a great position to make deals while many high-end would-be sellers choosing to wait out an improvement in the market. Real estate analyst Carol Rodoni, in a presentation this week to Marin County Coldwell Banker agents, said that current market conditions in California may continue through 2009 and into 2010 or even 2011 in some areas. Year to date units sold at 68 vs. 89 at this time last year, down 23%. Average sold price at $882,069 vs. $1,395,098 in '08 at the same time (price decrease a function of market mix as well as declines in value). Days on market for YTD sold properties now 123, up 19 from last year's comparable figure.
Marin County Condo market continued to show strong sales with 27.8% of all currently listed condo's in contract. The under-$1million condo market at 29.32% in contract while the over $1million segment sits with 14 listed properties and none in contract. YTD condo sales at 32 units to February 2 vs. 19 units at the same time last year. Average sale price $276,769 vs. $688,863 last year. This reduction a combination of decline in value as well as market mix, meaning that lower-end properties are selling. Average Days on market for YTD sold properties at 112 vs. 90 for the same time in '08.
Current U.S. economy still awaits an injection of confidence while new administration wrangles with Congress over what form the stimulus package will take. Stocks rallied today (Feb 6) on hopes the program would take shape soon and be voted into law.
More next time----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows most Marin County towns and cities percentage in contract down since last month's report. Sausalito at the bottom with only 2 of 39 listed properties in contract as of February 2, or 5.13%. Exceptions include San Rafael and Novato at the top of the list with 28 and 32 percent of properties in contract, respectively. Kentfield, San Anselmo and Fairfax also posted modest increases. Inventory of Single Family Residences up from 754 to 791. 153, or 19.34% of those in contract. In the under-$1million market, 122 of 433 homes in contract, or 28%. Homes above $1million a more difficult market due to new underwriting and appraisal standards. $1million to $2million range at 11.3% in contract but $2-$3million segment at only 3.75% in contract. Of 66 homes currently listed at $3million and above, only 4 in contract on February 2, or 6%. High-end buyers with cash in a great position to make deals while many high-end would-be sellers choosing to wait out an improvement in the market. Real estate analyst Carol Rodoni, in a presentation this week to Marin County Coldwell Banker agents, said that current market conditions in California may continue through 2009 and into 2010 or even 2011 in some areas. Year to date units sold at 68 vs. 89 at this time last year, down 23%. Average sold price at $882,069 vs. $1,395,098 in '08 at the same time (price decrease a function of market mix as well as declines in value). Days on market for YTD sold properties now 123, up 19 from last year's comparable figure.
Marin County Condo market continued to show strong sales with 27.8% of all currently listed condo's in contract. The under-$1million condo market at 29.32% in contract while the over $1million segment sits with 14 listed properties and none in contract. YTD condo sales at 32 units to February 2 vs. 19 units at the same time last year. Average sale price $276,769 vs. $688,863 last year. This reduction a combination of decline in value as well as market mix, meaning that lower-end properties are selling. Average Days on market for YTD sold properties at 112 vs. 90 for the same time in '08.
Current U.S. economy still awaits an injection of confidence while new administration wrangles with Congress over what form the stimulus package will take. Stocks rallied today (Feb 6) on hopes the program would take shape soon and be voted into law.
More next time----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Thursday, January 29, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 01.23.2009
For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Happy New Year Everyone,
Probably too soon to form any opinions about the health of the Marin County real estate market or make any predictions for 2009. Stock market has the jitters again. People uncertain about the economy, waiting and hoping for Obamanomics to ride to the rescue. Look for a bit more stability if the rescue plan appears solid.
Inventory on Single Family Residences up slightly to 754 from 713 at the last (Jan 6) report. 128, or 17.5% of those are in contract, making the overall market a "buyers" market. This is a bit deceptive as the under-$1million segment at 25.7% in contract ("balanced market"), continues to outperform the "high end" which ranges from 8.96% to as low as 3.95% in contract. For example, of 76 homes currently listed between $2million and $3million on Multiple Listing Service (MLS), only 3 are currently in contract. Total single family homes sold year-to-date (YTD) at 37 vs. 60 in 2008, or about 38% fewer.
These are mostly homes that were in the pipeline from December contracts so not necessarily the beginning of a new downward trend.
Condominium inventory also up slightly at 271 vs. 256 on Jan 6. 31.25% of these in contract, technically a "sellers market" but condo market so price-sensitive as to render this term almost inapplicable at the moment. YTD units sold at 16 vs. 10 at this time in '08, or a 60% increase. This, as mentioned many times before in this report, the result of bank-owned real estate (REO) sales and major pricing concessions.
La Jolla, CA-based Data Quick Real Estate News, in a January 21 article, noted
"Bargain Hunting Dominates Bay Area Home Sales in December". Article notes reduced pricing due to REO's / price reductions as well as a lower-end market mix compared to previous periods. Also cites a 36% increase in units sold in the Bay Area in Dec, 2008 vs. Dec, 2007. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090121.aspx
More will be revealed as 2009 continues to unfold.
MAR 2008 full-year statistics not yet out but watch for our Marin County Annual Sales Comparison Year to Year 1965 through 2008 shortly after the data becomes available.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property SpecialistDirect: (415) 464-3509Mobile: (415) 847-0602Fax: (415) 925-0962Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.comWebsite: Visit My Website
Happy New Year Everyone,
Probably too soon to form any opinions about the health of the Marin County real estate market or make any predictions for 2009. Stock market has the jitters again. People uncertain about the economy, waiting and hoping for Obamanomics to ride to the rescue. Look for a bit more stability if the rescue plan appears solid.
Inventory on Single Family Residences up slightly to 754 from 713 at the last (Jan 6) report. 128, or 17.5% of those are in contract, making the overall market a "buyers" market. This is a bit deceptive as the under-$1million segment at 25.7% in contract ("balanced market"), continues to outperform the "high end" which ranges from 8.96% to as low as 3.95% in contract. For example, of 76 homes currently listed between $2million and $3million on Multiple Listing Service (MLS), only 3 are currently in contract. Total single family homes sold year-to-date (YTD) at 37 vs. 60 in 2008, or about 38% fewer.
These are mostly homes that were in the pipeline from December contracts so not necessarily the beginning of a new downward trend.
Condominium inventory also up slightly at 271 vs. 256 on Jan 6. 31.25% of these in contract, technically a "sellers market" but condo market so price-sensitive as to render this term almost inapplicable at the moment. YTD units sold at 16 vs. 10 at this time in '08, or a 60% increase. This, as mentioned many times before in this report, the result of bank-owned real estate (REO) sales and major pricing concessions.
La Jolla, CA-based Data Quick Real Estate News, in a January 21 article, noted
"Bargain Hunting Dominates Bay Area Home Sales in December". Article notes reduced pricing due to REO's / price reductions as well as a lower-end market mix compared to previous periods. Also cites a 36% increase in units sold in the Bay Area in Dec, 2008 vs. Dec, 2007. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090121.aspx
More will be revealed as 2009 continues to unfold.
MAR 2008 full-year statistics not yet out but watch for our Marin County Annual Sales Comparison Year to Year 1965 through 2008 shortly after the data becomes available.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property SpecialistDirect: (415) 464-3509Mobile: (415) 847-0602Fax: (415) 925-0962Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.comWebsite: Visit My Website
Friday, January 9, 2009
The Anlyan Report Marin Market Statistics 01.09.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone and Happy New Year,
As usual, the Marin County real estate market took a bit of a breather over the Holidays, so not too much action to report.
Before Christmas, President Bush announced a mini-bailout of the big 3, essentially assuring enough cash to last until the Obama inauguration. Whatever the new administration decides to do will be revealed soon enough, but financial markets calmed somewhat by the present administration's actions. Dow Jones was actually back in 9000 territory for a few days, but still very sensitive to continuing adverse economic news and currently back in the mid-8000 range. Mortgage interest rates at historic lows for those who have good income and good credit. This, combined with soft housing prices makes the current market a great opportunity for many buyers who have previously been frozen out by escalating prices and high rates. For those who are waiting for the market to drop further, there is no guarantee that will happen here in Marin. The prospect of a better deal in the future may be the enemy of a good deal now!
City-by-City report shows San Rafael, Novato, and Ross as the only "sellers' " markets as of January 2. San Rafael and Novato in this territory largely as the result of discount pricing led by REO's (bank owned property), and Ross with 4 of 13 properties in escrow could have significantly different statistics with one more property in or out of escrow. Other Marin locations in either Buyers' or Strong Buyers' territory, with Sausalito at the bottom of the heap showing only 2 of 30 properties in escrow as of January 2, or 6.6%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) showed 713 units on the market as of January 6, and 128 in contract, or 17.95%- a significant drop from Dec 16 when it was 152 properties in escrow out of 783 on the market. Homes under $1 million doing better at 25.56% in contract, a balanced market. Upper-end homes languishing at less than 10% in contract. This reflects the current more stringent lending guidelines for "jumbo" mortgages. Buyers who can either pay cash or with enough down payment to eliminate the need for jumbo mortgages on high-end properties are in great position now. From December 31 to January 6, there were 29 new listings and 42 price reductions. 12 units went contingent, 13 pending, and 23 units were sold. 71 listings expired, and 24 were withdrawn or are temporarily off the market.
Condominium inventory at 256, only 9 fewer units than on December 16. 31.25% in contract making it technically a "sellers' " market, down from just over 35% in contract in mid-December. During the 7 days from December 31 to January 6 there were 12 new condo listings, 9 price reductions, 9 units went contingent, 10 pending, and 8 units sold during the period. There were 21 expired listings and 3 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Marin Association of Realtors has advised that they will not have the official Marin County year-end figures available until at least the end of the 3rd week in January. The Marin County Annual Sales Comparison from 1965 to present will be available shortly after that. In the meantime, here are some figures compiled for the current edition of the Coldwell Banker "Marin Market Update" newsletter.
Marin County Sales Analysis Link
http://www.cbnorcalevents.com/MARIN/newsletter/January09/MRERJanuary09-2.html
More in a couple of weeks.
In the meantime, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone and Happy New Year,
As usual, the Marin County real estate market took a bit of a breather over the Holidays, so not too much action to report.
Before Christmas, President Bush announced a mini-bailout of the big 3, essentially assuring enough cash to last until the Obama inauguration. Whatever the new administration decides to do will be revealed soon enough, but financial markets calmed somewhat by the present administration's actions. Dow Jones was actually back in 9000 territory for a few days, but still very sensitive to continuing adverse economic news and currently back in the mid-8000 range. Mortgage interest rates at historic lows for those who have good income and good credit. This, combined with soft housing prices makes the current market a great opportunity for many buyers who have previously been frozen out by escalating prices and high rates. For those who are waiting for the market to drop further, there is no guarantee that will happen here in Marin. The prospect of a better deal in the future may be the enemy of a good deal now!
City-by-City report shows San Rafael, Novato, and Ross as the only "sellers' " markets as of January 2. San Rafael and Novato in this territory largely as the result of discount pricing led by REO's (bank owned property), and Ross with 4 of 13 properties in escrow could have significantly different statistics with one more property in or out of escrow. Other Marin locations in either Buyers' or Strong Buyers' territory, with Sausalito at the bottom of the heap showing only 2 of 30 properties in escrow as of January 2, or 6.6%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) showed 713 units on the market as of January 6, and 128 in contract, or 17.95%- a significant drop from Dec 16 when it was 152 properties in escrow out of 783 on the market. Homes under $1 million doing better at 25.56% in contract, a balanced market. Upper-end homes languishing at less than 10% in contract. This reflects the current more stringent lending guidelines for "jumbo" mortgages. Buyers who can either pay cash or with enough down payment to eliminate the need for jumbo mortgages on high-end properties are in great position now. From December 31 to January 6, there were 29 new listings and 42 price reductions. 12 units went contingent, 13 pending, and 23 units were sold. 71 listings expired, and 24 were withdrawn or are temporarily off the market.
Condominium inventory at 256, only 9 fewer units than on December 16. 31.25% in contract making it technically a "sellers' " market, down from just over 35% in contract in mid-December. During the 7 days from December 31 to January 6 there were 12 new condo listings, 9 price reductions, 9 units went contingent, 10 pending, and 8 units sold during the period. There were 21 expired listings and 3 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Marin Association of Realtors has advised that they will not have the official Marin County year-end figures available until at least the end of the 3rd week in January. The Marin County Annual Sales Comparison from 1965 to present will be available shortly after that. In the meantime, here are some figures compiled for the current edition of the Coldwell Banker "Marin Market Update" newsletter.
Marin County Sales Analysis Link
http://www.cbnorcalevents.com/MARIN/newsletter/January09/MRERJanuary09-2.html
More in a couple of weeks.
In the meantime, best wishes to all,
Fred
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