Hello Everyone,
We are still in a very active real estate market, even though we have entered the traditionally slower holiday season. A snapshot of our current market might read something like this: "Inventory low; percentage in contract, relatively high; prices down from the same time last year, but up slightly from October. Frustrated buyers snapping up good new listings as soon as they come on the market."
A December 14 report from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service confirms the above characterization of the market, and adds that distressed properties continued to make up about 47% of all home sales in the Bay Area in November, a number it says is up slightly from 45.2% in October, and 46.7% a year ago. According to the article, investors purchased over 22% of Bay Area real estate in November, and over 27% of all sales appeared to have been for cash. For some time, we have been noting this trend among investors and we think it is worth repeating. Read the full text of the article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111214.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending December 13, there were 795 single family homes listed on the Marin MLS. 303 of them, or 38.11% were in contract. In the under-$1million range, it was 48.25%;
$1million to $2million, 26.32%; $2million to $3million, 14%; and $3million-up at 9.52%. Of these, only the $2-3million range constituted a drop---- it was 17.86% at last report. But with only 50 listings in the segment, 2 or 3 homes can make this kind of difference so probably not statistically significant. What is significant is that homes in the over-$2million range still represent an incredible value for those who want and can afford them. YTD SFR's sold as of 12.13.11 at 1816 vs. 1744 the same time last year, an increase of 4.1%. Days on Market (DOM) at 114 vs. 111 last year, and average sold price at $996,650 compared to $1,031,860 at the same time in 2010.
Condo's
On December 13, there were 266 condominiums listed on MLS in Marin County, and 123 of them, or 46.24% were in contract. Even though that represents a 3 point drop from last report, it is an impressively high number. In the under-$1million segment (all but 9 units), the percentage in contract was 47.47%. For condo's over 1 million, only 1 of 9 listed units was in contract, or 11%. YTD condo sales as of 12.13 were 547, compared to the year-ago figure of 454, representing an increase of 20%. DOM were up from 138 last year at this time, to 145, and average sold price was $374, 475, down from the comparable 2010 figure of $396,894. Some buyers have been getting very good deals on condo's that they would not have been able to afford just a few years ago. They are taking advantage of this window of opportunity to get a foothold in the Marin County real estate market. Some of these units are in attractive developments and require only cosmetic repairs. Rewards in this market are going to those who recognize value and are willing to act.
More next time. Until then, wishing you all the best for the Holidays and the New Year ahead,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
The next report will be in January
Monday, December 19, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.4.11
Hello Everyone,
Something is afoot! Or is it? Hard to tell anymore. Here's the evidence. You can decide for yourselves!
Tons of open escrows. Tons of closed escrows too. Low inventory of homes for sale. Much lower than last November or November of 2009.
City-by-City Report, out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 towns and cities covered increased, 2 remained virtually unchanged, and 3 decreased. Novato on top again, extending its lead, with 51.98% of listed units in contract on December 1. San Anselmo close behind at 50%, and Greenbrae third at 45%. Belvedere holding down the floor, with only 1 of 27 listed homes in contract, or 3.7%. Buyers with cash and a desire to live in Belvedere might do well to grab a local REALTOR and go shopping.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
SFR's overall at 36% in contract, up from 33% at last report. Homes under $1million up again, at 44.7% in contract compared to 42.4% last time. Homes in the $1million-$2million range also showed gains, going from 22% to 26.3% in contract over the two week period. $2million-$3million dollar range still struggling, and down over 2 points at 17.8% from last report's 20%. Still an improvement from several weeks ago when it was in the 12-16% range. Homes in the $3million and up range at 8.22% in contract, up modestly from 5.06% at last report. Units sold, YTD, at 1752, up 5.1% from this time last year (1667), but average SFR sold price at $997,404 compared to $1,039,445 a year ago. About half of that estimated to be price attrition, with the other half attributable to market mix. Average Days on Market for sold listings at 114, only slightly more than the year-ago figure of 111. Market Action Report, also out this week shows SFR Months Supply of Inventory in the County at 3.5 months- a very low number that compares to a bit over 6 months in each of the last two years. Inventory of homes for sale at 521 on 11.30.11 (vs. over 900 in November of 2010 per CB MarketQuest) also the lowest in over 24 months covered by the charts (inventory numbers on attached reports don't always directly compare to each other due to different methods of classifying homes in varying stages of the sales process).
Condominiums
Condo's overall at 49.66% in contract as of November 29, with condo's priced at under $1million hitting 50.53%. Year-to-date, 509 Condo units had sold as of Nov 29, compared to 437 a year ago, representing a 16.5% increase. Average sold price of $375,462 compares to the 2010 YTD figure of $400,231, while average DOM for sold listings was at 146 on Nov 29, compared to 136 at the same time last year. MSI for condo's even lower than for SFR's, at a 3.1 months. Compares to 7.1 last November, and 6.1 in Nov of 2009. (Please see notes above, under Single Family Residences, as they also apply to condo statistics)
Global economic turmoil continues to keep buyers on edge. Dramatic stock market fluctuations follow daily news of Euro crisis. One day's euphoria and market run-up quickly displaced by dysphoric programmed selling a day or so later. Fortunately the effect on our real estate market is largely peripheral. Regular folks are buying homes to live in and are getting great deals. A lot of people seem to be tired of living in the shadow of what might happen to the economy and are getting on with their lives. Quality homes placed on the market at reasonable prices are selling quickly and not infrequently with multiple offers. Want to know what your home is worth? Call a local REALTOR who knows your market.
More next time.
Until then, best Holiday wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Something is afoot! Or is it? Hard to tell anymore. Here's the evidence. You can decide for yourselves!
Tons of open escrows. Tons of closed escrows too. Low inventory of homes for sale. Much lower than last November or November of 2009.
City-by-City Report, out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 towns and cities covered increased, 2 remained virtually unchanged, and 3 decreased. Novato on top again, extending its lead, with 51.98% of listed units in contract on December 1. San Anselmo close behind at 50%, and Greenbrae third at 45%. Belvedere holding down the floor, with only 1 of 27 listed homes in contract, or 3.7%. Buyers with cash and a desire to live in Belvedere might do well to grab a local REALTOR and go shopping.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
SFR's overall at 36% in contract, up from 33% at last report. Homes under $1million up again, at 44.7% in contract compared to 42.4% last time. Homes in the $1million-$2million range also showed gains, going from 22% to 26.3% in contract over the two week period. $2million-$3million dollar range still struggling, and down over 2 points at 17.8% from last report's 20%. Still an improvement from several weeks ago when it was in the 12-16% range. Homes in the $3million and up range at 8.22% in contract, up modestly from 5.06% at last report. Units sold, YTD, at 1752, up 5.1% from this time last year (1667), but average SFR sold price at $997,404 compared to $1,039,445 a year ago. About half of that estimated to be price attrition, with the other half attributable to market mix. Average Days on Market for sold listings at 114, only slightly more than the year-ago figure of 111. Market Action Report, also out this week shows SFR Months Supply of Inventory in the County at 3.5 months- a very low number that compares to a bit over 6 months in each of the last two years. Inventory of homes for sale at 521 on 11.30.11 (vs. over 900 in November of 2010 per CB MarketQuest) also the lowest in over 24 months covered by the charts (inventory numbers on attached reports don't always directly compare to each other due to different methods of classifying homes in varying stages of the sales process).
Condominiums
Condo's overall at 49.66% in contract as of November 29, with condo's priced at under $1million hitting 50.53%. Year-to-date, 509 Condo units had sold as of Nov 29, compared to 437 a year ago, representing a 16.5% increase. Average sold price of $375,462 compares to the 2010 YTD figure of $400,231, while average DOM for sold listings was at 146 on Nov 29, compared to 136 at the same time last year. MSI for condo's even lower than for SFR's, at a 3.1 months. Compares to 7.1 last November, and 6.1 in Nov of 2009. (Please see notes above, under Single Family Residences, as they also apply to condo statistics)
Global economic turmoil continues to keep buyers on edge. Dramatic stock market fluctuations follow daily news of Euro crisis. One day's euphoria and market run-up quickly displaced by dysphoric programmed selling a day or so later. Fortunately the effect on our real estate market is largely peripheral. Regular folks are buying homes to live in and are getting great deals. A lot of people seem to be tired of living in the shadow of what might happen to the economy and are getting on with their lives. Quality homes placed on the market at reasonable prices are selling quickly and not infrequently with multiple offers. Want to know what your home is worth? Call a local REALTOR who knows your market.
More next time.
Until then, best Holiday wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Friday, November 18, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.18.2011
Hello Everyone,
La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, in a November 16 report, stated:
"The Bay Area housing market logged another month of lackluster activity in October as some of the recent signs of incremental market improvement began to fade. High-end sales dropped markedly, likely the result of changes to “conforming loan” limits---". This is a reference to the limits for government-insured housing loans which, here in Marin County, were reduced from $729,750 to $625,500 on October 1. Most lenders had stopped taking applications for the higher limits substantially before that time. The House of Representatives voted Thursday (Nov 17) to reinstate the expired higher loan limits, and President Obama signed the bill into law on Friday. Many had predicted that decreasing the limits in a still-faltering economy would deprive the struggling housing market of much-needed liquidity and result in further price attrition. That prediction was not "rocket science". The article goes on to say that although Bay Area real estate unit sales for October, at 6,444 were up from 6,122 (5.5%) in October of 2010, they were down 4.5% from 6,749 in September of this year. The article notes that sales are usually "flat" from Sept. to Oct. so a decline was unexpected. “We’ve been watching the real estate market take itty bitty baby steps in the direction of normalcy, but that trend paused last month. ARM and jumbo loan usage went back down, cash and investor sales went back up as a portion of the market. This may well be a short-term pause while the market recalibrates changes in loan thresholds. We’ll know more in a few months,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. Fortunately, now that the increased limits have been reinstated, we will not have to wait a few months for a result that would have been almost a foregone conclusion. It may take a while to ramp the sales back up though, particularly as we are approaching the traditionally slow Holiday Season.
Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111116.aspx
I have written on a number of occasions about the benefits to Buyers and Sellers of staying in the market during the Holidays rather than taking time off. Fundamentally, it boils down to this:
Buyers---Less competition for the homes you want. Get them now!
Sellers-- The Buyers who are still out there during the Holidays are motivated. Make sure your property is available to them!
Marin County real estate inventory continues its seasonal decline, with percentage in contract increasing at every price point.
Single Family Residences
The hot segment here is still $0-999K, increasing again (Nov 15) to 42.37% in contract, from 40.26% on October 25. All other price points also increased percentage in contract. Overall market checking in at "Balanced", with 33.3% in contract, compared to 30.21% last time.
$1M-$1.99M segment at 22% vs. 18.8% on Oct. 25, and $2M-$2.99 going from 16.05% to 20% during the same period. The $3M and up segment increased slightly, from 4.6% to 5.06% during the period. YTD unit sales of SFR's at 1682 on Nov 15, up from 1611 at the same time last year, but average sales prices down from prior year to $1,000,731 from $1,037,976.
Condo's still smoking hot, with 47.08% in contract on November 15. For the under-$1M segment, it is even higher, at 48.81%. Compares to 45.51% and 46.54%, respectively, on our October 25 report. Condo YTD unit sales at 489, up 16.9% from 418 at the same time last year. Condo prices also down to $376,978 from $404,058 last year.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website,
http://www.fredanlyan.com
La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, in a November 16 report, stated:
"The Bay Area housing market logged another month of lackluster activity in October as some of the recent signs of incremental market improvement began to fade. High-end sales dropped markedly, likely the result of changes to “conforming loan” limits---". This is a reference to the limits for government-insured housing loans which, here in Marin County, were reduced from $729,750 to $625,500 on October 1. Most lenders had stopped taking applications for the higher limits substantially before that time. The House of Representatives voted Thursday (Nov 17) to reinstate the expired higher loan limits, and President Obama signed the bill into law on Friday. Many had predicted that decreasing the limits in a still-faltering economy would deprive the struggling housing market of much-needed liquidity and result in further price attrition. That prediction was not "rocket science". The article goes on to say that although Bay Area real estate unit sales for October, at 6,444 were up from 6,122 (5.5%) in October of 2010, they were down 4.5% from 6,749 in September of this year. The article notes that sales are usually "flat" from Sept. to Oct. so a decline was unexpected. “We’ve been watching the real estate market take itty bitty baby steps in the direction of normalcy, but that trend paused last month. ARM and jumbo loan usage went back down, cash and investor sales went back up as a portion of the market. This may well be a short-term pause while the market recalibrates changes in loan thresholds. We’ll know more in a few months,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. Fortunately, now that the increased limits have been reinstated, we will not have to wait a few months for a result that would have been almost a foregone conclusion. It may take a while to ramp the sales back up though, particularly as we are approaching the traditionally slow Holiday Season.
Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111116.aspx
I have written on a number of occasions about the benefits to Buyers and Sellers of staying in the market during the Holidays rather than taking time off. Fundamentally, it boils down to this:
Buyers---Less competition for the homes you want. Get them now!
Sellers-- The Buyers who are still out there during the Holidays are motivated. Make sure your property is available to them!
Marin County real estate inventory continues its seasonal decline, with percentage in contract increasing at every price point.
Single Family Residences
The hot segment here is still $0-999K, increasing again (Nov 15) to 42.37% in contract, from 40.26% on October 25. All other price points also increased percentage in contract. Overall market checking in at "Balanced", with 33.3% in contract, compared to 30.21% last time.
$1M-$1.99M segment at 22% vs. 18.8% on Oct. 25, and $2M-$2.99 going from 16.05% to 20% during the same period. The $3M and up segment increased slightly, from 4.6% to 5.06% during the period. YTD unit sales of SFR's at 1682 on Nov 15, up from 1611 at the same time last year, but average sales prices down from prior year to $1,000,731 from $1,037,976.
Condo's still smoking hot, with 47.08% in contract on November 15. For the under-$1M segment, it is even higher, at 48.81%. Compares to 45.51% and 46.54%, respectively, on our October 25 report. Condo YTD unit sales at 489, up 16.9% from 418 at the same time last year. Condo prices also down to $376,978 from $404,058 last year.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website,
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, November 6, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.31.11
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report out this week. The only big surprise is Sausalito, roused from its somnolent state and sizzling at 40.28% in contract, now solidly in sellers’ market territory and up from where it languished as a buyers’ market for an extended period. Percentage in contract at last report was 28%. Remains to be seen if it is finally catching fire or if the sizzle will fizzle. Time will tell.
Market action reports for October show inventory for both single family residences (SFR) and Condo’s down substantially from last year’s levels. SFR’s, with only a 4.6 month supply of inventory (MSI), down 45% from Oct. of 2010. Condo MSI down 51% from the same time last year. Inventory continuing to tighten. Reluctant sellers, waiting for market values to recover, hold on to their property unless required to sell by some compelling circumstance. Basic economics teaches us that reduced supply eventually results in increasing prices which then attract a greater supply. Here in Marin County, this has yet to happen, with inventory continuing to go from low to lower. Attractive, well-priced, well-located properties often selling almost immediately, often with multiple offers, and frequently at a premium to list price. Most multiple-offer situations still not going wildly over list price because tight appraisal guidelines continue to hold prices in check, however cash buyers are obviously free to spend any amount they care to and often come out on the winning end of bidding contests, particularly in the lower end of the market. One agent was recently overheard telling clients that if they liked a particular newly-listed property, they should make an offer right away as it probably would not be around next week. The agent was right, it wasn’t. These are not hard-sell tactics--- this is just the reality of today’sMarinCountyreal estate market. There is a large pool of frustrated buyers ready to pounce on prime properties. Buyers in the higher price points may have the luxury of shopping around, but should take advantage of the opportunity while the party lasts! The only thing we know for sure is that everything changes.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Percentage in contract up for most pricing segments. Overall percentage in contract up slightly from 29.6% to 30.2% since last report. Still an overall buyers’ market, but first impressions prove deceptive when we take a closer look. Homes under $1million up another point, finally breaking the 40% barrier- a solid sellers’ market. $1million to $1.99 million range down just slightly but basically even at 18.3% in contract---continuing to be a strong buyers’ market and representing a great opportunity. $2 million to $2.99 million price point offering similar or even slightly better opportunity for buyers, at only 16.05% in contract, while the over $3million segment, at only 4.6% in contract offers enormous opportunities for those with buying and bargaining power. SFR unit sales at 1556 on Nov. 1, compared to 1499 at the same time last year, or up 3.8%. Prices are down a bit to an average of $1,008,371 compared to $1,033,918 on the same date last year.
Condominiums
Condo percentage in contract increased slightly overall, with 45.51%, of listed units in contract on October 25—just on the verge of becoming a strong sellers’ market. The under $1million condo market already there, at 46.54% in contract. YTD condo units sold at 449, up 14% from the 386 units sold last year at the same time. Average sold price for condo’s also down to $369,368 vs. last year’s $399,432. Average days on market were 147 vs 132 last year. Decreases in sales prices for Condo’s and SFR’s not entirely attributable to market price attrition. Many analysts assign about 50% of decline in average sales price to changes in market mix and other factors.
Holiday Season once again almost upon us. Many Buyers and Sellers traditionally take a break from real estate during this time. Could be a mistake for both sides as sellers can benefit from buyers who are still in the market and tend to be much more motivated, and buyers also benefit when the competition takes a break.
Bottom line: Interest rates are great; prices are low; people are buying homes!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report out this week. The only big surprise is Sausalito, roused from its somnolent state and sizzling at 40.28% in contract, now solidly in sellers’ market territory and up from where it languished as a buyers’ market for an extended period. Percentage in contract at last report was 28%. Remains to be seen if it is finally catching fire or if the sizzle will fizzle. Time will tell.
Market action reports for October show inventory for both single family residences (SFR) and Condo’s down substantially from last year’s levels. SFR’s, with only a 4.6 month supply of inventory (MSI), down 45% from Oct. of 2010. Condo MSI down 51% from the same time last year. Inventory continuing to tighten. Reluctant sellers, waiting for market values to recover, hold on to their property unless required to sell by some compelling circumstance. Basic economics teaches us that reduced supply eventually results in increasing prices which then attract a greater supply. Here in Marin County, this has yet to happen, with inventory continuing to go from low to lower. Attractive, well-priced, well-located properties often selling almost immediately, often with multiple offers, and frequently at a premium to list price. Most multiple-offer situations still not going wildly over list price because tight appraisal guidelines continue to hold prices in check, however cash buyers are obviously free to spend any amount they care to and often come out on the winning end of bidding contests, particularly in the lower end of the market. One agent was recently overheard telling clients that if they liked a particular newly-listed property, they should make an offer right away as it probably would not be around next week. The agent was right, it wasn’t. These are not hard-sell tactics--- this is just the reality of today’sMarinCountyreal estate market. There is a large pool of frustrated buyers ready to pounce on prime properties. Buyers in the higher price points may have the luxury of shopping around, but should take advantage of the opportunity while the party lasts! The only thing we know for sure is that everything changes.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Percentage in contract up for most pricing segments. Overall percentage in contract up slightly from 29.6% to 30.2% since last report. Still an overall buyers’ market, but first impressions prove deceptive when we take a closer look. Homes under $1million up another point, finally breaking the 40% barrier- a solid sellers’ market. $1million to $1.99 million range down just slightly but basically even at 18.3% in contract---continuing to be a strong buyers’ market and representing a great opportunity. $2 million to $2.99 million price point offering similar or even slightly better opportunity for buyers, at only 16.05% in contract, while the over $3million segment, at only 4.6% in contract offers enormous opportunities for those with buying and bargaining power. SFR unit sales at 1556 on Nov. 1, compared to 1499 at the same time last year, or up 3.8%. Prices are down a bit to an average of $1,008,371 compared to $1,033,918 on the same date last year.
Condominiums
Condo percentage in contract increased slightly overall, with 45.51%, of listed units in contract on October 25—just on the verge of becoming a strong sellers’ market. The under $1million condo market already there, at 46.54% in contract. YTD condo units sold at 449, up 14% from the 386 units sold last year at the same time. Average sold price for condo’s also down to $369,368 vs. last year’s $399,432. Average days on market were 147 vs 132 last year. Decreases in sales prices for Condo’s and SFR’s not entirely attributable to market price attrition. Many analysts assign about 50% of decline in average sales price to changes in market mix and other factors.
Holiday Season once again almost upon us. Many Buyers and Sellers traditionally take a break from real estate during this time. Could be a mistake for both sides as sellers can benefit from buyers who are still in the market and tend to be much more motivated, and buyers also benefit when the competition takes a break.
Bottom line: Interest rates are great; prices are low; people are buying homes!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, October 14, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.14.11
Hello Everyone,
An October 14th article by DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service features the headline: "Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago". Chart at the bottom of the article lists Marin County as having a 10.6% increase in unit sales, comparing Sept., 2010 to Sept., 2011 results, but a 10.5% decrease in the median sales price. Article notes that Bay Area foreclosure resales were down a couple of percentage points during September, compared to the year-ago figure--- 25.6% of homes sold during the month vs. 27.5% last year. However, short sales made up about 20.1% of resales last month, compared to15.4% in September, 2010 and 15.3% in September, 2009, the article went on to say. Full text of article available at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111014.aspx
Our own MLS statistics similar to those referenced in the article, showing Single Family Residences (SFR) up in unit sales, from 1431, YTD, as of 10/1, 2010 to1487 as of 10/1/2011---a 3.9% increase. Average YTD sold price for SFR's for the date are $1,002,406, compared to $1,049,919 a year ago. Percentages will not line up directly with the DataQuick numbers because they measure different areas by slightly different yardsticks. The important thing is that the trends are the same. SFR inventory down again, to 1033 units on 10/1. 306 of those, or 29.62% were in contract, about the same as last report. Homes under $1million, though, continue to be strong performers, with 39.38% in contract. Homes in the $1million to $2million range held steady, at a little over 19% in contract, while $2million-$3million homes notched up from 12.35% in contract at last report to 15.66% this time, the highest since July.
Condominiums actually forging ahead much more strongly on sales, with 426 sold, YTD, as of October 1, compared to 371 last year, a 14.8% increase. Prices on condo's also decreased, with the average sold price for the year at $365,319 on October 1, compared to $401,599 a year ago. Condo percentage in contract keeps going up, while inventory continues to head in the opposite direction. On July 26, there were 378 active condo listings in Marin, and 135 were in contract--- about 35.7%. On October 1, the figures were 337 active listings, of which 45.1% or 152 units were in contract. Just a reminder about sales prices for both SFR's and Condo's. It is estimated that only about half of the amount of price decreases is attributable to lower values--- the other half a result of changes in "market mix", meaning homes of lesser value were coming to market.
Stock market has just finished its 3rd positive week, removing some of the fear from the forefront of people's minds, but try to remember that the future of the Marin County real estate market is not directly related to the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market. What is more important is that prices are great, and interest rates are low. For those who need a place to live, this should provide a major incentive to take the plunge.
Marin County real estate market is active, with buyers looking for what they consider to be acceptable properties, then pouncing on them, often several at a time. One home last week was rumored to have over 16 offers. Many sellers still holding off listing their homes, trying to wait out the down market. May be missing an opportunity to sell at a good price now!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. To view spreadsheets, please visit my website:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
An October 14th article by DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service features the headline: "Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago". Chart at the bottom of the article lists Marin County as having a 10.6% increase in unit sales, comparing Sept., 2010 to Sept., 2011 results, but a 10.5% decrease in the median sales price. Article notes that Bay Area foreclosure resales were down a couple of percentage points during September, compared to the year-ago figure--- 25.6% of homes sold during the month vs. 27.5% last year. However, short sales made up about 20.1% of resales last month, compared to15.4% in September, 2010 and 15.3% in September, 2009, the article went on to say. Full text of article available at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111014.aspx
Our own MLS statistics similar to those referenced in the article, showing Single Family Residences (SFR) up in unit sales, from 1431, YTD, as of 10/1, 2010 to1487 as of 10/1/2011---a 3.9% increase. Average YTD sold price for SFR's for the date are $1,002,406, compared to $1,049,919 a year ago. Percentages will not line up directly with the DataQuick numbers because they measure different areas by slightly different yardsticks. The important thing is that the trends are the same. SFR inventory down again, to 1033 units on 10/1. 306 of those, or 29.62% were in contract, about the same as last report. Homes under $1million, though, continue to be strong performers, with 39.38% in contract. Homes in the $1million to $2million range held steady, at a little over 19% in contract, while $2million-$3million homes notched up from 12.35% in contract at last report to 15.66% this time, the highest since July.
Condominiums actually forging ahead much more strongly on sales, with 426 sold, YTD, as of October 1, compared to 371 last year, a 14.8% increase. Prices on condo's also decreased, with the average sold price for the year at $365,319 on October 1, compared to $401,599 a year ago. Condo percentage in contract keeps going up, while inventory continues to head in the opposite direction. On July 26, there were 378 active condo listings in Marin, and 135 were in contract--- about 35.7%. On October 1, the figures were 337 active listings, of which 45.1% or 152 units were in contract. Just a reminder about sales prices for both SFR's and Condo's. It is estimated that only about half of the amount of price decreases is attributable to lower values--- the other half a result of changes in "market mix", meaning homes of lesser value were coming to market.
Stock market has just finished its 3rd positive week, removing some of the fear from the forefront of people's minds, but try to remember that the future of the Marin County real estate market is not directly related to the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market. What is more important is that prices are great, and interest rates are low. For those who need a place to live, this should provide a major incentive to take the plunge.
Marin County real estate market is active, with buyers looking for what they consider to be acceptable properties, then pouncing on them, often several at a time. One home last week was rumored to have over 16 offers. Many sellers still holding off listing their homes, trying to wait out the down market. May be missing an opportunity to sell at a good price now!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. To view spreadsheets, please visit my website:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 3, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate. 10.3.2011
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, September 18, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.18.2011
Hello Everyone,
"More Bay Area homes sold last month but the pace was still well below average as the market remained plagued by uncertainty – over the future of home prices, jobs, the economy and the nation’s political future. The median price paid for a home dropped below the year-ago level for the 11th consecutive month as distressed property sales claimed around half of the resale market" according to a September 16 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, a real estate news service. This pretty much sums up what we have been saying recently about our local Marin County real estate market. Buyers afraid to make long-term commitments when they don't know if they will have jobs or if their newly-purchased homes will maintain their value. Article goes on to state "Looking ahead, we'll be watching the mortgage default filings closely, given their surge last month from July. If that continues this fall, it could mean a lot more distressed properties on the market next year, which would put downward pressure on prices." Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110916.aspx
Here in Marin County, year-to-date (YTD) real estate sales vs. 2010 are up in units but down in price.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Approximately 47% of Main County SFR's sold YTD represented some type of distressed sale, resulting in continued price restraint. Unit sales as of September 13 were 1339 units, vs. 1290 at the same time last year, an increase of 3.8%. Average sold price, however, fell from $1,042,985 to $1,001,269. As we have noted previously, please keep in mind that we estimate at least half that price decline is attributable to market mix rather than price decline.
Condominiums
Condo's told a similar story. Approximately 61% of YTD Marin County condo sales were distressed. Condo unit sales as of September 13 were 384 units vs. 340 at the same time in 2010, an increase of 13%. Condo prices were down too, with the average sold price at $371,429 vs. the year-ago figure of $404,630.
While it may be true, as the DataQuick article suggests, that there is more downside risk in this market, it appears that if we are not at the bottom of the market, we are certainly near it. Population will continue to increase, there is a limited supply of Bay Area housing, and Marin County has very little room to build more. In real estate, as in the stock market, just about everyone agrees it is extremely difficult to identify the absolute bottom of a market. Usually what happens is that by the time people realize that the market has turned positive again, significant gains have already been made. So the question becomes whether or not any money lost on a small post-purchase price decline would be less than the extra money paid by delaying the purchase until prices are already on their way back up. At that point, more properties will be receiving multiple offers and competition with other buyers will be driving prices up--- probably not the way they went up in 2006-2007, but significantly, nonetheless. In addition, mortgage rates will probably increase due to an increased demand for funds. Is it better to buy now, with less competition, lower price, lower rate mortgage--- or wait until everyone else decides to jump in the market? A $500,000 mortgage with an increase of 1% in the lending rate would add on about $416 to the monthly payment. As we have said before, buying Marin County real estate now seems like a no-brainer. The DataQuick article notes that, in August, 21.3% of homes sold in the County were purchased by "absentee buyers-mostly investors", up from 17.8% a year ago. Do they know something the rest of us don't?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
"More Bay Area homes sold last month but the pace was still well below average as the market remained plagued by uncertainty – over the future of home prices, jobs, the economy and the nation’s political future. The median price paid for a home dropped below the year-ago level for the 11th consecutive month as distressed property sales claimed around half of the resale market" according to a September 16 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, a real estate news service. This pretty much sums up what we have been saying recently about our local Marin County real estate market. Buyers afraid to make long-term commitments when they don't know if they will have jobs or if their newly-purchased homes will maintain their value. Article goes on to state "Looking ahead, we'll be watching the mortgage default filings closely, given their surge last month from July. If that continues this fall, it could mean a lot more distressed properties on the market next year, which would put downward pressure on prices." Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110916.aspx
Here in Marin County, year-to-date (YTD) real estate sales vs. 2010 are up in units but down in price.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Approximately 47% of Main County SFR's sold YTD represented some type of distressed sale, resulting in continued price restraint. Unit sales as of September 13 were 1339 units, vs. 1290 at the same time last year, an increase of 3.8%. Average sold price, however, fell from $1,042,985 to $1,001,269. As we have noted previously, please keep in mind that we estimate at least half that price decline is attributable to market mix rather than price decline.
Condominiums
Condo's told a similar story. Approximately 61% of YTD Marin County condo sales were distressed. Condo unit sales as of September 13 were 384 units vs. 340 at the same time in 2010, an increase of 13%. Condo prices were down too, with the average sold price at $371,429 vs. the year-ago figure of $404,630.
While it may be true, as the DataQuick article suggests, that there is more downside risk in this market, it appears that if we are not at the bottom of the market, we are certainly near it. Population will continue to increase, there is a limited supply of Bay Area housing, and Marin County has very little room to build more. In real estate, as in the stock market, just about everyone agrees it is extremely difficult to identify the absolute bottom of a market. Usually what happens is that by the time people realize that the market has turned positive again, significant gains have already been made. So the question becomes whether or not any money lost on a small post-purchase price decline would be less than the extra money paid by delaying the purchase until prices are already on their way back up. At that point, more properties will be receiving multiple offers and competition with other buyers will be driving prices up--- probably not the way they went up in 2006-2007, but significantly, nonetheless. In addition, mortgage rates will probably increase due to an increased demand for funds. Is it better to buy now, with less competition, lower price, lower rate mortgage--- or wait until everyone else decides to jump in the market? A $500,000 mortgage with an increase of 1% in the lending rate would add on about $416 to the monthly payment. As we have said before, buying Marin County real estate now seems like a no-brainer. The DataQuick article notes that, in August, 21.3% of homes sold in the County were purchased by "absentee buyers-mostly investors", up from 17.8% a year ago. Do they know something the rest of us don't?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, September 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.4.11
Hello Everyone,
The summer seemed to pass us by really quickly, and here we are-- already at the end of another Labor Day Weekend!
City-by-City analysis, out this week shows 6 of 13 listed cities and towns' percentage in contract up, and 7 down, most of them only incremental. Three notable exceptions to this are:
1. Belvedere, with 29 homes on the market as of 9/4, and none of them in contract 2.Mill Valley, where inventory decreased from 173 last month, to 159, and percentage in contract increased from 24.86% to 29.56% 3. Novato, with a decrease from 334 to 313 listed housing units and percentage in contract increasing from 38% to 43.45%.
Overall, housing inventory very low for this time of year, compared to prior years. Results in a lot of activity for attractive, well-priced new listings, which are often gone in the first 1 or 2 weeks, not infrequently with multiple offers. Most of them not going far over listing price, but a few are. Proper pricing still a major key to success, as overpriced homes tend to sit on the market while buyers wait for prices to get into line with reality. Many buyers making offers substantially below listing price, hoping to negotiate something in between their offer and the advertised price. Many of them successful!
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory, at 710 units (CB Market action report. Figures do not include properties in-contract, accounting for the difference between this number and the SFR and Condo reports, which do include those properties). To put this in perspective, in August of 2010, there were 1,237 SFR units listed, and in August of '09, 1,212. In December of '10, the low point for the year, there were 753 SFR units on MLS. In Dec. of '09, it was 809, and in '08, it was 805. On 8/30, the months' supply of inventory (MSI) for SFR's (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, less than half of last August's 9 month supply. In the County, 1264 SFR units sold YTD as of 8/30, compared to 1222 at the same time last year, a 3.7% increase, so even with less inventory from which to choose, buyers somehow managed to find and purchase more property this year than last. Judging from the number of open escrows we are seeing, we are looking for that trend to continue through the fall. The big question is-- when will sellers start to turn the supply of homes back on??
Condominiums following a pattern similar to SFR's. Inventory severely constrained, with only 247 units available (CB Market Action Report) as of 8/30. Compares to 381 last August, and 344 in Aug of '09. The December figures for the last 3 years are: Dec, 2010----291; Dec 2009-- 260'; and Dec 2008----287. YTD condo units sold as of 8/30 were 358, up 11.5% from last August's 321. MSI for condo's as of 8/30 (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, again less than half of last August's 10 month supply!
There seems to be a lot of pent-up buyer demand in the market. Normally, this would result in higher prices which, in turn, would pull more inventory into the market. Strict underwriting and appraisal standards are holding this in check to a large extent, so sellers are giving the contracts to the "gold plated" buyers--- the ones they think have the best chance of closing escrow. All-cash buyers, or those with a major portion of the purchase price in cash have a very significant advantage in this market, especially in sales involving new listings. Homes priced above $2million (mostly SFR's) declined to 9.86% in contract from last month's 17.72%. Previous 3 months had been in the 13% to 16% range. Unclear if this is a trend, but looks like a further opportunity for high-end buyers. Individuals thinking about moving up to larger homes would do well to focus more attention on the huge potential savings on a new upper-end home purchase as it will more than likely significantly outweigh any potential loss on the sale of the lower-priced current home. When opportunity knocks-------!
More next time.
Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous autumn season,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
The summer seemed to pass us by really quickly, and here we are-- already at the end of another Labor Day Weekend!
City-by-City analysis, out this week shows 6 of 13 listed cities and towns' percentage in contract up, and 7 down, most of them only incremental. Three notable exceptions to this are:
1. Belvedere, with 29 homes on the market as of 9/4, and none of them in contract 2.Mill Valley, where inventory decreased from 173 last month, to 159, and percentage in contract increased from 24.86% to 29.56% 3. Novato, with a decrease from 334 to 313 listed housing units and percentage in contract increasing from 38% to 43.45%.
Overall, housing inventory very low for this time of year, compared to prior years. Results in a lot of activity for attractive, well-priced new listings, which are often gone in the first 1 or 2 weeks, not infrequently with multiple offers. Most of them not going far over listing price, but a few are. Proper pricing still a major key to success, as overpriced homes tend to sit on the market while buyers wait for prices to get into line with reality. Many buyers making offers substantially below listing price, hoping to negotiate something in between their offer and the advertised price. Many of them successful!
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory, at 710 units (CB Market action report. Figures do not include properties in-contract, accounting for the difference between this number and the SFR and Condo reports, which do include those properties). To put this in perspective, in August of 2010, there were 1,237 SFR units listed, and in August of '09, 1,212. In December of '10, the low point for the year, there were 753 SFR units on MLS. In Dec. of '09, it was 809, and in '08, it was 805. On 8/30, the months' supply of inventory (MSI) for SFR's (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, less than half of last August's 9 month supply. In the County, 1264 SFR units sold YTD as of 8/30, compared to 1222 at the same time last year, a 3.7% increase, so even with less inventory from which to choose, buyers somehow managed to find and purchase more property this year than last. Judging from the number of open escrows we are seeing, we are looking for that trend to continue through the fall. The big question is-- when will sellers start to turn the supply of homes back on??
Condominiums following a pattern similar to SFR's. Inventory severely constrained, with only 247 units available (CB Market Action Report) as of 8/30. Compares to 381 last August, and 344 in Aug of '09. The December figures for the last 3 years are: Dec, 2010----291; Dec 2009-- 260'; and Dec 2008----287. YTD condo units sold as of 8/30 were 358, up 11.5% from last August's 321. MSI for condo's as of 8/30 (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, again less than half of last August's 10 month supply!
There seems to be a lot of pent-up buyer demand in the market. Normally, this would result in higher prices which, in turn, would pull more inventory into the market. Strict underwriting and appraisal standards are holding this in check to a large extent, so sellers are giving the contracts to the "gold plated" buyers--- the ones they think have the best chance of closing escrow. All-cash buyers, or those with a major portion of the purchase price in cash have a very significant advantage in this market, especially in sales involving new listings. Homes priced above $2million (mostly SFR's) declined to 9.86% in contract from last month's 17.72%. Previous 3 months had been in the 13% to 16% range. Unclear if this is a trend, but looks like a further opportunity for high-end buyers. Individuals thinking about moving up to larger homes would do well to focus more attention on the huge potential savings on a new upper-end home purchase as it will more than likely significantly outweigh any potential loss on the sale of the lower-priced current home. When opportunity knocks-------!
More next time.
Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous autumn season,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, August 21, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.21.11
Hello Everyone,
I love the following quote from John Walsh, president of La Jolla-based Data Quick, a real estate information service. The article in which it appeared was dated August 16. Full text available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110816.aspx
Speaking of the Bay Area housing market, Mr. Walsh stated:
"We’re still looking at a dysfunctional market. Distribution curves are lopsided, bottom-feeding is still prevalent and the lending market is just plain weird. We’re off bottom by all metrics, but far from anything resembling normal,"
Normally, the local real estate market takes a bit of a vacation, along with everyone else, in July and August. But this year, it took a bit more of a vacation than usual, with Bay-Area home unit sales decreasing 13.9 percent from June, compared to a historical average of 6.8 percent since 1988. (from DQ statistics)
With all the financial drama from the debt cap debacle and the constantly publicized continuing concern over the stability of the Euro and certain countries' solvency all being reflected in Wall Street swoops and dives, it is nearly impossible to tell whether we are climbing out of a familiar hole or falling into a new one! The media hype tends to engender fear and paralysis and many people find it difficult to make a large financial commitment in the face of such uncertainty.
Meanwhile, people who need homes and have faith in the economy are buying and they are getting great deals on two fronts. First, prices are more attractive than they have been in years, and second, interest rates are at historic lows. Buying property now, especially in Marin County, seems like a complete no-brainer. Many buyers who take time to do the math find that with the tax benefits and the low prices and loan rates , they can buy more cheaply than they can rent---and they won't lose their security deposit for hanging pictures on the walls! The truth is that while housing prices have been falling, rental rates have often increased.
Sellers wondering what's in it for them in this market can look to the low current levels of housing inventory for sale in Marin County. According to Coldwell Banker MarketQuest, inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at the end of July was down 19.3% from June, and 38.8% from July of 2010. Similarly, Condominium inventory was down 11.8% from June, and down 22.2% from July of 2010. These reduced levels of inventory create more demand and more competition for the properties that are on the market and more opportunities for sellers.
YTD unit sales of SFR's in Marin County were 1186 as of August 16, compared to the year-ago figure of 1161, up 2.2%. Average sold price was down about 4.6%, from $1,051,462 as of 8.16.10 to $1,006,672 on the same date this year, and days on the market (DOM) for YTD sold properties was 106 this year vs. 87 a year ago. The figures for condo's were: YTD unit sales as of 8.16.11--334, compared to 304 on 8.16.10, an increase of 9.2%. Average YTD condo sold price down 6.4% from $396,364 in Aug of 2010 to $370,939 on 8.16.2011, or -6.4%. As we have mentioned a number of times previously, unit price declines are not entirely attributable to declines in value but also have to do with "market mix", meaning less expensive homes are selling in greater numbers, skewing the averages. Percentage in contract for SFR's under $1million at 37.98%, down only slightly from 39.79% at last report, still considered a sellers' market. Higher-priced SFR's in the $1million to $2million and $2million to $3million ranges went up by 1 to 2 percentage points, but still in 'Strong Buyers' territory. Properties over $3million dropped from 11% to only 6% in contract over the last two weeks. Higher-end SFR's continue to represent a trememdous opportunity for buyers with money to spend. Percentage in contract for condo's under $1million (all but 15 of them) also down slightly from 37.12% at last report to 35.67% on August 16, hanging in to sellers' market territory by a gnat's breath.
Business at local brokerages brisk over the past couple of weeks. Lots of talk about listings with multiple offers. This is still not the rule, by any means, but attractive, well-priced and well-located homes often become the object of buyer competition. Investors continue to snap up properties. According to the DataQuick, article, "absentee buyers---mostly investors--purchased 21.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold (in July), up from 20% in June, and 17.4% a year ago". The article goes on to state that all-cash buyers "accounted for 26.3% of sales in July, up from 26.0% in June, and up from 25.1% a year ago.------ the monthly average is 11.9% since 1988". All things considered, the local real estate market seems very much alive. More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
I love the following quote from John Walsh, president of La Jolla-based Data Quick, a real estate information service. The article in which it appeared was dated August 16. Full text available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110816.aspx
Speaking of the Bay Area housing market, Mr. Walsh stated:
"We’re still looking at a dysfunctional market. Distribution curves are lopsided, bottom-feeding is still prevalent and the lending market is just plain weird. We’re off bottom by all metrics, but far from anything resembling normal,"
Normally, the local real estate market takes a bit of a vacation, along with everyone else, in July and August. But this year, it took a bit more of a vacation than usual, with Bay-Area home unit sales decreasing 13.9 percent from June, compared to a historical average of 6.8 percent since 1988. (from DQ statistics)
With all the financial drama from the debt cap debacle and the constantly publicized continuing concern over the stability of the Euro and certain countries' solvency all being reflected in Wall Street swoops and dives, it is nearly impossible to tell whether we are climbing out of a familiar hole or falling into a new one! The media hype tends to engender fear and paralysis and many people find it difficult to make a large financial commitment in the face of such uncertainty.
Meanwhile, people who need homes and have faith in the economy are buying and they are getting great deals on two fronts. First, prices are more attractive than they have been in years, and second, interest rates are at historic lows. Buying property now, especially in Marin County, seems like a complete no-brainer. Many buyers who take time to do the math find that with the tax benefits and the low prices and loan rates , they can buy more cheaply than they can rent---and they won't lose their security deposit for hanging pictures on the walls! The truth is that while housing prices have been falling, rental rates have often increased.
Sellers wondering what's in it for them in this market can look to the low current levels of housing inventory for sale in Marin County. According to Coldwell Banker MarketQuest, inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at the end of July was down 19.3% from June, and 38.8% from July of 2010. Similarly, Condominium inventory was down 11.8% from June, and down 22.2% from July of 2010. These reduced levels of inventory create more demand and more competition for the properties that are on the market and more opportunities for sellers.
YTD unit sales of SFR's in Marin County were 1186 as of August 16, compared to the year-ago figure of 1161, up 2.2%. Average sold price was down about 4.6%, from $1,051,462 as of 8.16.10 to $1,006,672 on the same date this year, and days on the market (DOM) for YTD sold properties was 106 this year vs. 87 a year ago. The figures for condo's were: YTD unit sales as of 8.16.11--334, compared to 304 on 8.16.10, an increase of 9.2%. Average YTD condo sold price down 6.4% from $396,364 in Aug of 2010 to $370,939 on 8.16.2011, or -6.4%. As we have mentioned a number of times previously, unit price declines are not entirely attributable to declines in value but also have to do with "market mix", meaning less expensive homes are selling in greater numbers, skewing the averages. Percentage in contract for SFR's under $1million at 37.98%, down only slightly from 39.79% at last report, still considered a sellers' market. Higher-priced SFR's in the $1million to $2million and $2million to $3million ranges went up by 1 to 2 percentage points, but still in 'Strong Buyers' territory. Properties over $3million dropped from 11% to only 6% in contract over the last two weeks. Higher-end SFR's continue to represent a trememdous opportunity for buyers with money to spend. Percentage in contract for condo's under $1million (all but 15 of them) also down slightly from 37.12% at last report to 35.67% on August 16, hanging in to sellers' market territory by a gnat's breath.
Business at local brokerages brisk over the past couple of weeks. Lots of talk about listings with multiple offers. This is still not the rule, by any means, but attractive, well-priced and well-located homes often become the object of buyer competition. Investors continue to snap up properties. According to the DataQuick, article, "absentee buyers---mostly investors--purchased 21.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold (in July), up from 20% in June, and 17.4% a year ago". The article goes on to state that all-cash buyers "accounted for 26.3% of sales in July, up from 26.0% in June, and up from 25.1% a year ago.------ the monthly average is 11.9% since 1988". All things considered, the local real estate market seems very much alive. More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, August 1, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.1.2011
Hello Everyone,
About four times every year, the calendar gets out of synch with our twice-per-month reporting format, and we have to wait for it to "catch up". The current period is one of those times. While we are waiting for the end-of-month data to be compiled by the reporting services we use, the writer has provided the monthly reports that are available for your use via his website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
The City-by-City Report, out this week, shows the percentage in contract of only 3 of the covered Marin County cities and towns decreased. It increased, even if only slightly, in the other 10! Single Family YTD home sales as of July 26 were 1058, compared to 1055 last year at the same time, or up 1/3 of 1%! This is great news, since we had the federal and state tax incentives last year and none this year! SFR inventory down slightly from 1141 at last report to 1115 on July 26, with percentage in contract holding pretty steady, and even increasing in the $0-$999K range (from 36.8% to 39.8%). Condo's putting forth a creditable effort too, with 292 YTD units sold as of July 26, compared to the year-ago figure of 275, or up 6%. This, a significant increase from the 2.7% year-over-year increase reported last time. Condo percentages in contract holding or increasing slightly as well.
The writer wishes all a safe and enjoyable summer season.
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
About four times every year, the calendar gets out of synch with our twice-per-month reporting format, and we have to wait for it to "catch up". The current period is one of those times. While we are waiting for the end-of-month data to be compiled by the reporting services we use, the writer has provided the monthly reports that are available for your use via his website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
The City-by-City Report, out this week, shows the percentage in contract of only 3 of the covered Marin County cities and towns decreased. It increased, even if only slightly, in the other 10! Single Family YTD home sales as of July 26 were 1058, compared to 1055 last year at the same time, or up 1/3 of 1%! This is great news, since we had the federal and state tax incentives last year and none this year! SFR inventory down slightly from 1141 at last report to 1115 on July 26, with percentage in contract holding pretty steady, and even increasing in the $0-$999K range (from 36.8% to 39.8%). Condo's putting forth a creditable effort too, with 292 YTD units sold as of July 26, compared to the year-ago figure of 275, or up 6%. This, a significant increase from the 2.7% year-over-year increase reported last time. Condo percentages in contract holding or increasing slightly as well.
The writer wishes all a safe and enjoyable summer season.
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, July 17, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.17.2011
Hello Everyone,
Marin County year-to-date (YTD) sales of single family residences (SFR) continuing to put in a good effort, holding roughly even with last year's sales at 978 units as of July 12, vs. the year-ago figure of 980, representing a decrease of just 2/10ths of a percent. Condominium sales hanging in there too, with 270 YTD units sold on July 12 vs. last year's 263, a 2.6% increase! This all the more notable since last year's sales in the 1st half of the year were artificially supported by the now-expired federal tax credits. Average home prices in the County are down a bit, and days on market (DOM) up: The average selling price of a Marin County SFR as of 7.12.11, was $1,001,582, compared to $1,041,200 at the same time in 2010. Average DOM were 105, compared to the 2010 figure of 88 on the same date. The 2011 YTD average sale price for condo's to July 12 was $370,371 and average DOM were 134. This compares to $396,802 and 104 DOM on the same date in 2010. As we have remarked before, probably only about half of the price attrition is attributable to declining home values, with the remainder due to sales of lower-priced foreclosures that are often in poor condition. Home prices vary widely by city, town, neighborhood, street, and individual residence. The best source of information about the value of your home is a REALTOR experienced in your specific market.
San Diego-based DataQuick, in a July 14 article noted that Marin County home sales were up 8.3% in June, with 313 total units (SFR and condo) selling during the period, compared to 289 the prior year (June, 2010), but median prices were down an average of 6.9% for the same period (follow link to see chart on p.2 of their article). The article also noted a 14.5% increase in units sold from May, 2011 to June, 2011 for the entire Bay Area. Full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110714.aspx
Percentage in contract and inventory of both SFR's and Condo's remaining roughly stable over the last two weeks, with 28.5% of SFR's in contract, representing 325 of 1141 listed properties. This figure a bit deceptive since properties under $1million actually doing significantly better, with 244 of 663 listed properties in that price range in contract, or 36.8%. Homes above $1million at between 11.7% and 19.% in contract depending upon price range, with percentage in contract decreasing as market price increases. This reflects continued challenges of obtaining "jumbo" financing--- easier than at the low point of the market, but still not easy. In spite of these challenges, upper-end home sales holding fairly steady, but continuing to present a major opportunity for buyers who either have cash or can qualify for financing.
Agents, buyers, and sellers in the know warily eyeing the scheduled reduction in the temporarily increased FHA loan limits, currently $729,750 in Marin County. If not renewed, the loan limit would drop on October 1, to $625,500, a reduction of $104,250. Concern is that the reduction has the potential for significant adverse effect on loan rates, home prices, and sales. Congress scheduled next week to consider whether to extend the higher limits. More on this later. Wall St. Journal recently published an informative article on the subject. See full text at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576450511770761504.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Marin County year-to-date (YTD) sales of single family residences (SFR) continuing to put in a good effort, holding roughly even with last year's sales at 978 units as of July 12, vs. the year-ago figure of 980, representing a decrease of just 2/10ths of a percent. Condominium sales hanging in there too, with 270 YTD units sold on July 12 vs. last year's 263, a 2.6% increase! This all the more notable since last year's sales in the 1st half of the year were artificially supported by the now-expired federal tax credits. Average home prices in the County are down a bit, and days on market (DOM) up: The average selling price of a Marin County SFR as of 7.12.11, was $1,001,582, compared to $1,041,200 at the same time in 2010. Average DOM were 105, compared to the 2010 figure of 88 on the same date. The 2011 YTD average sale price for condo's to July 12 was $370,371 and average DOM were 134. This compares to $396,802 and 104 DOM on the same date in 2010. As we have remarked before, probably only about half of the price attrition is attributable to declining home values, with the remainder due to sales of lower-priced foreclosures that are often in poor condition. Home prices vary widely by city, town, neighborhood, street, and individual residence. The best source of information about the value of your home is a REALTOR experienced in your specific market.
San Diego-based DataQuick, in a July 14 article noted that Marin County home sales were up 8.3% in June, with 313 total units (SFR and condo) selling during the period, compared to 289 the prior year (June, 2010), but median prices were down an average of 6.9% for the same period (follow link to see chart on p.2 of their article). The article also noted a 14.5% increase in units sold from May, 2011 to June, 2011 for the entire Bay Area. Full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110714.aspx
Percentage in contract and inventory of both SFR's and Condo's remaining roughly stable over the last two weeks, with 28.5% of SFR's in contract, representing 325 of 1141 listed properties. This figure a bit deceptive since properties under $1million actually doing significantly better, with 244 of 663 listed properties in that price range in contract, or 36.8%. Homes above $1million at between 11.7% and 19.% in contract depending upon price range, with percentage in contract decreasing as market price increases. This reflects continued challenges of obtaining "jumbo" financing--- easier than at the low point of the market, but still not easy. In spite of these challenges, upper-end home sales holding fairly steady, but continuing to present a major opportunity for buyers who either have cash or can qualify for financing.
Agents, buyers, and sellers in the know warily eyeing the scheduled reduction in the temporarily increased FHA loan limits, currently $729,750 in Marin County. If not renewed, the loan limit would drop on October 1, to $625,500, a reduction of $104,250. Concern is that the reduction has the potential for significant adverse effect on loan rates, home prices, and sales. Congress scheduled next week to consider whether to extend the higher limits. More on this later. Wall St. Journal recently published an informative article on the subject. See full text at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576450511770761504.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.5.11
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows only 4 of 13 cities and towns covered by the report increased percentage in contract since May. Fairfax, with a slight bump from 45.95% to 46.67%, leads the pack. Larkspur (29%), Belvedere (22%), and Tiburon (18%) also up. Even though percentage in contract is down, Greenbrae (39%), Novato (38%), San Rafael (32%), and San Anselmo (31%)all doing relatively well.
According to the monthly Market Action Report, also out this week, Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) at very low levels---3.7 months for SFR's---the lowest value in the last 24 months. The Condo Market Action Report shows 4.6 months of inventory---the lowest number since December of '09. Low inventory is typically a good sign for sellers since it creates more competition among buyers for existing listings.
Year-to-date units sold reversed course and headed in an upward direction for both SFR's and Condo's. SFR YTD units sold were 910 on June 28, compared to the year-earlier figure of 892. This represents an increase of 2% from the same period last year. On our last report, this figure was -.7%. Condo YTD units sold were 248 as of June 28, compared to 240 at the same time last year. This represents an increase of 3% from last year, and turns around the -1.3% statistic from our last report. These figures are particularly good news since sales were artificially inflated in 2010 due to Federal tax credits for homebuyers. This statistic is very encouraging, particularly if it continues.
This is the time of year that the local real estate market takes a siesta, waking up again after Labor Day when buyers and sellers return from vacation. Dedicated buyers and sellers are in the market until their goals/needs are met, regardless of vacations, holidays. This period of lower activity actually can benefit those who persevere by giving them the opportunity to shop with less competition from other buyers. Sellers can also benefit right now from the low level of inventory which has resulted in many more multiple-offer situations than we would normally expect in a market like this. There is something for everyone here!
Recent conversations with other agents and with escrow officers confirm our experience that the market has been up and down this year, reacting to financial and other news. Because of this, our local real estate market may or may not follow normal trends, but is is definitely active. Prices are reasonable, interest rates are favorable and there is opportunity for everyone!
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows only 4 of 13 cities and towns covered by the report increased percentage in contract since May. Fairfax, with a slight bump from 45.95% to 46.67%, leads the pack. Larkspur (29%), Belvedere (22%), and Tiburon (18%) also up. Even though percentage in contract is down, Greenbrae (39%), Novato (38%), San Rafael (32%), and San Anselmo (31%)all doing relatively well.
According to the monthly Market Action Report, also out this week, Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) at very low levels---3.7 months for SFR's---the lowest value in the last 24 months. The Condo Market Action Report shows 4.6 months of inventory---the lowest number since December of '09. Low inventory is typically a good sign for sellers since it creates more competition among buyers for existing listings.
Year-to-date units sold reversed course and headed in an upward direction for both SFR's and Condo's. SFR YTD units sold were 910 on June 28, compared to the year-earlier figure of 892. This represents an increase of 2% from the same period last year. On our last report, this figure was -.7%. Condo YTD units sold were 248 as of June 28, compared to 240 at the same time last year. This represents an increase of 3% from last year, and turns around the -1.3% statistic from our last report. These figures are particularly good news since sales were artificially inflated in 2010 due to Federal tax credits for homebuyers. This statistic is very encouraging, particularly if it continues.
This is the time of year that the local real estate market takes a siesta, waking up again after Labor Day when buyers and sellers return from vacation. Dedicated buyers and sellers are in the market until their goals/needs are met, regardless of vacations, holidays. This period of lower activity actually can benefit those who persevere by giving them the opportunity to shop with less competition from other buyers. Sellers can also benefit right now from the low level of inventory which has resulted in many more multiple-offer situations than we would normally expect in a market like this. There is something for everyone here!
Recent conversations with other agents and with escrow officers confirm our experience that the market has been up and down this year, reacting to financial and other news. Because of this, our local real estate market may or may not follow normal trends, but is is definitely active. Prices are reasonable, interest rates are favorable and there is opportunity for everyone!
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, June 20, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 6.19.2011
Hello Everyone,
Some concern this week about the ending, June 30th, of the Federal Reserve injection of cash into the financial system, known as Quantitative Easing. The Fed has supplied the financial markets with some $600 Billion in cash liquidity since the beginning of this (2nd) phase of the program in November, 2010. Stock market jittery. Many different opinions on what will happen next. Some analysts predicting the government will be forced to support the economy with a third round of Quantitative easing before too long.
Two weeks ago, in the cold and rain, we wondered if spring would ever come. Yes, there had been a few nice days, but always a return to the rain After over seven months of cold, windy, rainy weather, we had had enough. Now, suddenly it is summer and the weather is beautiful. And the real estate market seems just like that--- a few bright spots surrounded by pessimism and doubt. Meanwhile, investors continue to snap up a large portion of the available Bay Area residential real estate--- over 21% in May, according to the most recent DataQuick monthly report, dated June 15. http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110615.aspx These investors know a good deal when they see one. Home prices and mortgage rates continue at lows not seen in many years, and, like our recent extended winter, it may seem as if these bargains will go on forever. History tells us they will not. One day we will realize that the recovery has happened. In the interim, many people who formerly found themselves unable to achieve their dream of home ownership will reach out and grab it. Buyers are encouraged to take a serious look at the opportunities presented by this market! Don't wait 'till it's over!
Here in Marin County, sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) holding up pretty well. 29.33% of all SFR's listed on MLS in contract as of June 14, just slightly below the 30.56% when we reported 2 weeks ago. $0-$999K segment down 7/10ths of a point at 38.12%. We are calling this a Sellers' Market, but it is largely a Sellers' Market in name only. Homes that are attractively priced, prepared, and presented are selling, sometimes with multiple offers, but sellers ability to dictate price is still not there in most cases. Upper-end homes continue to be a huge bargain for buyers, and the more upper-end, the better the bargains. Homes over $3million considered a Very Strong Buyers' Market, with only 9.9% of listings in contract on June 14. YTD units sold on June 15 were 799 compared to 805 on the same date last year, down 7/10ths of a point. Up until May 31, this number had been in positive terrtory for the year. Let's watch this trend carefully in coming weeks and keep in mind that tax incentives artificially inflated sales figures in the first half of last year as buyers rushed to make their purchases before the credits expired .
Condominium percentage in contract actually increased across the board since our report two weeks ago. Overall market up from 34.92% in contract on May 31 to 36.71% on June 14.
$0-$999k price range up to 38.19% in contract from 36.58% two weeks ago, and even the upper-end condo's eked out a gain, with 14% in contract compared to the May 31 figure of 5.56% for condo's over $1million. YTD condo units sold on June 15 were 219, 1.3% less than the year-ago figure of 222 units. Two weeks ago, we were at -1%. This also bears watching, but so far, we believe there is a considerable amount of activity in the Marin County real estate market and are encouraged by the number of open escrows at local brokerages and positive agent reports about local market activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Some concern this week about the ending, June 30th, of the Federal Reserve injection of cash into the financial system, known as Quantitative Easing. The Fed has supplied the financial markets with some $600 Billion in cash liquidity since the beginning of this (2nd) phase of the program in November, 2010. Stock market jittery. Many different opinions on what will happen next. Some analysts predicting the government will be forced to support the economy with a third round of Quantitative easing before too long.
Two weeks ago, in the cold and rain, we wondered if spring would ever come. Yes, there had been a few nice days, but always a return to the rain After over seven months of cold, windy, rainy weather, we had had enough. Now, suddenly it is summer and the weather is beautiful. And the real estate market seems just like that--- a few bright spots surrounded by pessimism and doubt. Meanwhile, investors continue to snap up a large portion of the available Bay Area residential real estate--- over 21% in May, according to the most recent DataQuick monthly report, dated June 15. http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110615.aspx These investors know a good deal when they see one. Home prices and mortgage rates continue at lows not seen in many years, and, like our recent extended winter, it may seem as if these bargains will go on forever. History tells us they will not. One day we will realize that the recovery has happened. In the interim, many people who formerly found themselves unable to achieve their dream of home ownership will reach out and grab it. Buyers are encouraged to take a serious look at the opportunities presented by this market! Don't wait 'till it's over!
Here in Marin County, sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) holding up pretty well. 29.33% of all SFR's listed on MLS in contract as of June 14, just slightly below the 30.56% when we reported 2 weeks ago. $0-$999K segment down 7/10ths of a point at 38.12%. We are calling this a Sellers' Market, but it is largely a Sellers' Market in name only. Homes that are attractively priced, prepared, and presented are selling, sometimes with multiple offers, but sellers ability to dictate price is still not there in most cases. Upper-end homes continue to be a huge bargain for buyers, and the more upper-end, the better the bargains. Homes over $3million considered a Very Strong Buyers' Market, with only 9.9% of listings in contract on June 14. YTD units sold on June 15 were 799 compared to 805 on the same date last year, down 7/10ths of a point. Up until May 31, this number had been in positive terrtory for the year. Let's watch this trend carefully in coming weeks and keep in mind that tax incentives artificially inflated sales figures in the first half of last year as buyers rushed to make their purchases before the credits expired .
Condominium percentage in contract actually increased across the board since our report two weeks ago. Overall market up from 34.92% in contract on May 31 to 36.71% on June 14.
$0-$999k price range up to 38.19% in contract from 36.58% two weeks ago, and even the upper-end condo's eked out a gain, with 14% in contract compared to the May 31 figure of 5.56% for condo's over $1million. YTD condo units sold on June 15 were 219, 1.3% less than the year-ago figure of 222 units. Two weeks ago, we were at -1%. This also bears watching, but so far, we believe there is a considerable amount of activity in the Marin County real estate market and are encouraged by the number of open escrows at local brokerages and positive agent reports about local market activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, May 23, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.22.11
Hello Everyone,
La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in its monthly report dated May 16, fretted over Bay-Area sales declines in both unit sales volume and median price. But the article also cited encouraging statistics regarding decreasing foreclosure sales, sales to investors, all-cash buyers sales, as well as increased availability of adjustable rate and "jumbo" mortgages. The really good news for Marin County homeowners came in a chart at the end of the article. That table showed Marin County sales volume for April down only 1.6% from April of 2010, only about half the Bay Area average. Also, according to the index, the Marin County median sales price actually inceased .2 percent compared to the 2.7 percent average Bay Area decline for the period putting Marin in top position of the nine-county area.
Read the full article at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110516.aspx
After a torrid two months, the Marin County real estate market paused to catch its breath for the last couple of weeks. Local offices caught up on their paperwork and wondered what was going to happen next. Conversations with local agents reveal that agents and their clients are working really hard to put deals together, with buyers often making several offers on prospective homes before being successful. Multiple offers still with us, but mostly in much less dramatic fashion than in the years when appraisers were rubber-stamping deals on a regular basis. Agents, Buyers, and Sellers all acutely aware that if a loan is involved in the purchase transaction, the home will have to appraise at contract value for the deal to go through. Lots of all-cash deals still around though and these are not subject to appraisal. A recent story about a listing in the mid-$1million range that had 7 offers and went more than $200 K over asking price is a case in point of what can happen with all-cash deals. Still, this is the exception rather than the rule, and sellers are advised, as always, to focus their attention on preparation, pricing, presentation, and good-faith negotiation. Best source of information and advice for this is still a local REALTOR who is experienced in your market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending May 17, SFR listings had increased slightly, from 1087 to 1118. 334 of these, or 30.77% were in contract on that date, just slightly more than the 30.45% recorded on May 3. The under-$1million price range had 646 available units county-wide, and 253 of them, or about 39% were in contract on May 17, just about the same as last time, indicating this price range is just a bit of a sellers' market. $1million-$2million and $2million-$3million price ranges holding their own at 21.79% and 23.33% in contract, respectively. Both solid buyers' markets, and both representing great opportunities for buyers shopping for value in upper-end homes. Year to date unit sales at 628 on May 17, compared to the year-ago figure of 599, or up 5%. This, in spite of the fact that last year's buyer tax incentives are no longer with us.
Condo's
On May 17, there were 348 active condominium listings in the County, an increase of 22 units over the May 3 figure. 122 of these, or 35.06% were in contract, an increase from 32.52% at last report. 333 of the above units were priced under $1million. Of these, 36.04% were in contract, putting the category just into sellers' market territory. Just enough to make sellers feel good about their prospects, but not enough to be a pricing advantage. Condo pricing still very competitive. Buyers continue to shop for attractive deals, but they will buy when they perceive value. Condo YTD units sold at 179 on May 17, virtually unchanged from the year-ago figure of 178.
Everyone waiting to see what the next few weeks bring for Marin County real estate. Deals starting to come in again in the last few days, renewing optimism about the prospects for continued improvement during the second half of the year. We will know soon enough!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. see my website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in its monthly report dated May 16, fretted over Bay-Area sales declines in both unit sales volume and median price. But the article also cited encouraging statistics regarding decreasing foreclosure sales, sales to investors, all-cash buyers sales, as well as increased availability of adjustable rate and "jumbo" mortgages. The really good news for Marin County homeowners came in a chart at the end of the article. That table showed Marin County sales volume for April down only 1.6% from April of 2010, only about half the Bay Area average. Also, according to the index, the Marin County median sales price actually inceased .2 percent compared to the 2.7 percent average Bay Area decline for the period putting Marin in top position of the nine-county area.
Read the full article at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110516.aspx
After a torrid two months, the Marin County real estate market paused to catch its breath for the last couple of weeks. Local offices caught up on their paperwork and wondered what was going to happen next. Conversations with local agents reveal that agents and their clients are working really hard to put deals together, with buyers often making several offers on prospective homes before being successful. Multiple offers still with us, but mostly in much less dramatic fashion than in the years when appraisers were rubber-stamping deals on a regular basis. Agents, Buyers, and Sellers all acutely aware that if a loan is involved in the purchase transaction, the home will have to appraise at contract value for the deal to go through. Lots of all-cash deals still around though and these are not subject to appraisal. A recent story about a listing in the mid-$1million range that had 7 offers and went more than $200 K over asking price is a case in point of what can happen with all-cash deals. Still, this is the exception rather than the rule, and sellers are advised, as always, to focus their attention on preparation, pricing, presentation, and good-faith negotiation. Best source of information and advice for this is still a local REALTOR who is experienced in your market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending May 17, SFR listings had increased slightly, from 1087 to 1118. 334 of these, or 30.77% were in contract on that date, just slightly more than the 30.45% recorded on May 3. The under-$1million price range had 646 available units county-wide, and 253 of them, or about 39% were in contract on May 17, just about the same as last time, indicating this price range is just a bit of a sellers' market. $1million-$2million and $2million-$3million price ranges holding their own at 21.79% and 23.33% in contract, respectively. Both solid buyers' markets, and both representing great opportunities for buyers shopping for value in upper-end homes. Year to date unit sales at 628 on May 17, compared to the year-ago figure of 599, or up 5%. This, in spite of the fact that last year's buyer tax incentives are no longer with us.
Condo's
On May 17, there were 348 active condominium listings in the County, an increase of 22 units over the May 3 figure. 122 of these, or 35.06% were in contract, an increase from 32.52% at last report. 333 of the above units were priced under $1million. Of these, 36.04% were in contract, putting the category just into sellers' market territory. Just enough to make sellers feel good about their prospects, but not enough to be a pricing advantage. Condo pricing still very competitive. Buyers continue to shop for attractive deals, but they will buy when they perceive value. Condo YTD units sold at 179 on May 17, virtually unchanged from the year-ago figure of 178.
Everyone waiting to see what the next few weeks bring for Marin County real estate. Deals starting to come in again in the last few days, renewing optimism about the prospects for continued improvement during the second half of the year. We will know soon enough!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. see my website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.8.2011
Hello Everyone,
Well, it sure seems as if 2011 is streaking by us with the throttle stuck on "afterburner". Hard to believe it is May already, but the sunny weather is certainly welcome, and the buyers are out in droves. Agents report open houses well-attended, and local offices seeing large numbers of open escrows. At some locations, admins having trouble keeping up with all the open files--- not a bad problem to have after going through the last couple of years!
Coldwell Banker MarketQuest report for April shows accepted offers for April at 291 for Single Family Residences (SFR) and 86 for Condo's. This compares to April, 2010's 170/44 and 2009's 141/47, so there is significantly more activity in this year's market. The April ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 107% and for Condo's, it was 89.6%. For SFR's, this represents the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. For condo's, it is the highest since December of '09, which came in at 102%. We expect these kinds of numbers more during the Holidays, when folks are taking their homes off the market as much as they are putting new ones on, but in the spring, with growing inventory, it is a very favorable sign! As we have reported these numbers have been favorable and growing in recent months.
Mortgage rates, which had been rising, have trended down in the past few weeks, extending the opportunity for potential buyers chance to purchase their dream home at a price they could only dream of until recently! MarketQuest, confirming what we have read in recent articles shows the average price of homes sold in April down from March levels, for both SFR' s and Condo's. This a bit confusing, since the same report shows 3 month $/sq ft. prices up for both categories. SFR April level at $429/SF vs. March's $415. For Condo's, the April number was $309/SF vs. March's $297. Upon further investigation through Marin County MLS listing history, the average Condo or SFR sold in April was smaller than in March! The average size of an SFR sold in April was 2,155 SF compared to 2,302 in March, while the average size of a Condo sold in April was 1,294 SF compared to 1,324 in March. This certainly helps explain the decrease in selling prices from March to April.
City-by-City Report out this week shows that of the 13 towns and cities covered, 4 increased their percentage in contract, 6 decreased, and 3 remained essentially unchanged. Fairfax at the top of the heap, with 40% in contract. Novato next at 39+%. Corte Madera close behind at 38%. Larkspur and Greenbrae both hanging in nicely at about 35% and San Rafael just above 34%. Belvedere back down to 6%, with only 2 of 33 listed properties in contract as of May 3. A great opportunity for high-end buyers!
Wishing all Mothers the very best of everything on this beautiful Mothers' Day!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Well, it sure seems as if 2011 is streaking by us with the throttle stuck on "afterburner". Hard to believe it is May already, but the sunny weather is certainly welcome, and the buyers are out in droves. Agents report open houses well-attended, and local offices seeing large numbers of open escrows. At some locations, admins having trouble keeping up with all the open files--- not a bad problem to have after going through the last couple of years!
Coldwell Banker MarketQuest report for April shows accepted offers for April at 291 for Single Family Residences (SFR) and 86 for Condo's. This compares to April, 2010's 170/44 and 2009's 141/47, so there is significantly more activity in this year's market. The April ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 107% and for Condo's, it was 89.6%. For SFR's, this represents the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. For condo's, it is the highest since December of '09, which came in at 102%. We expect these kinds of numbers more during the Holidays, when folks are taking their homes off the market as much as they are putting new ones on, but in the spring, with growing inventory, it is a very favorable sign! As we have reported these numbers have been favorable and growing in recent months.
Mortgage rates, which had been rising, have trended down in the past few weeks, extending the opportunity for potential buyers chance to purchase their dream home at a price they could only dream of until recently! MarketQuest, confirming what we have read in recent articles shows the average price of homes sold in April down from March levels, for both SFR' s and Condo's. This a bit confusing, since the same report shows 3 month $/sq ft. prices up for both categories. SFR April level at $429/SF vs. March's $415. For Condo's, the April number was $309/SF vs. March's $297. Upon further investigation through Marin County MLS listing history, the average Condo or SFR sold in April was smaller than in March! The average size of an SFR sold in April was 2,155 SF compared to 2,302 in March, while the average size of a Condo sold in April was 1,294 SF compared to 1,324 in March. This certainly helps explain the decrease in selling prices from March to April.
City-by-City Report out this week shows that of the 13 towns and cities covered, 4 increased their percentage in contract, 6 decreased, and 3 remained essentially unchanged. Fairfax at the top of the heap, with 40% in contract. Novato next at 39+%. Corte Madera close behind at 38%. Larkspur and Greenbrae both hanging in nicely at about 35% and San Rafael just above 34%. Belvedere back down to 6%, with only 2 of 33 listed properties in contract as of May 3. A great opportunity for high-end buyers!
Wishing all Mothers the very best of everything on this beautiful Mothers' Day!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, April 25, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.24.11
San Diego-based DataQuick Information Systems, in an article dated April 14 noted:
Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off-------"
However, the chart at the bottom of the page shows Marin County leading the entire Bay Area in both numbers of sales (up 10.7% for March, year over year) and appreciation in the median selling price (+4.4% for March compared to the year-ago figure).
(Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110414.aspx )
The Wall Street Journal, in an April 21 article titled Mortgage Rates Fall; 30-Year Fixed at 4.8% remarked
"Mortgage rates fell in the latest week for the first time in more than a month, with the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages falling to 4.8%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of mortgage rates. ", adding " 'Low inflation is keeping mortgage rates at bay', said Freddie Chief Economist Frank Nothaft",
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703983704576277083168337572.html
So there is some happy news for buyers and sellers, and, theoretically, some incentive for buyers sitting on the proverbial fence to finally take advantage of a great opportunity while it lasts!
Marin County percentage in contract just a shade lower in all categories of both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums with the notable exception of the SFR $2million to $2.99 million price range, which went up, from 17.11% in contract at last report to 21.43% on April 19. Percentage in contract of all other price ranges for both SFR and Condo's down slightly, probably at least partially attributable to a recent increase in listings that had not yet been absorbed.
Local real estate offices very busy, with many deals going into contract. Significant numbers of multiple offers--- though still not going very far over asking price in most cases. Many agents cautiously upbeat about the prospects for the rest of the year, but aware that adverse news events and financial bumps in the road on the national and international scene can still trigger exaggerated effects on local real estate because they affect buyers' sense of security and willingness to make long-term financial commitments.
Banks still imposing strict standards on borrowers and not infrequently adding additional hoops for buyers to jump through as transactions progress. Not usually a problem for well-qualified borrowers. Buyers advised not to do anything to change their financial status during the escrow period--- includes making large credit card purchases, buying cars, boats, other big ticket items---- even furniture. If in doubt, check in with lender or mortgage broker beforehand!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off-------"
However, the chart at the bottom of the page shows Marin County leading the entire Bay Area in both numbers of sales (up 10.7% for March, year over year) and appreciation in the median selling price (+4.4% for March compared to the year-ago figure).
(Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110414.aspx )
The Wall Street Journal, in an April 21 article titled Mortgage Rates Fall; 30-Year Fixed at 4.8% remarked
"Mortgage rates fell in the latest week for the first time in more than a month, with the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages falling to 4.8%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of mortgage rates. ", adding " 'Low inflation is keeping mortgage rates at bay', said Freddie Chief Economist Frank Nothaft",
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703983704576277083168337572.html
So there is some happy news for buyers and sellers, and, theoretically, some incentive for buyers sitting on the proverbial fence to finally take advantage of a great opportunity while it lasts!
Marin County percentage in contract just a shade lower in all categories of both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums with the notable exception of the SFR $2million to $2.99 million price range, which went up, from 17.11% in contract at last report to 21.43% on April 19. Percentage in contract of all other price ranges for both SFR and Condo's down slightly, probably at least partially attributable to a recent increase in listings that had not yet been absorbed.
Local real estate offices very busy, with many deals going into contract. Significant numbers of multiple offers--- though still not going very far over asking price in most cases. Many agents cautiously upbeat about the prospects for the rest of the year, but aware that adverse news events and financial bumps in the road on the national and international scene can still trigger exaggerated effects on local real estate because they affect buyers' sense of security and willingness to make long-term financial commitments.
Banks still imposing strict standards on borrowers and not infrequently adding additional hoops for buyers to jump through as transactions progress. Not usually a problem for well-qualified borrowers. Buyers advised not to do anything to change their financial status during the escrow period--- includes making large credit card purchases, buying cars, boats, other big ticket items---- even furniture. If in doubt, check in with lender or mortgage broker beforehand!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.10.11
Hello Everyone,
CNN.Money.com staff writer Les Christie (and a lot of other people too) has been talking about a "double dip" housing recession. In a March 29 article "Home prices near a double dip", he wrote, "I think prices will drop another 5% to 10%.--------The double dip will hit in the next couple of months." (read the full article)
http://cnnmoney.mobi/primary/_T0o1le-iJAAuzZYl4
Mr. Christie is referring to the national housing market, an animal that barely exists, since it is composed of averages of thousands of individual markets which vary greatly from each other in their performance at any given point in time. And with regard to the national averages, Mr. Christie may or may not be right---- but he obviously hasn't been to Marin County recently!
Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest report for the period ending March 31 shows the following extremely encouraging statistics:
Single Family Residences:
Active inventory 647*. This is down from February's 754. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 1,078
Sold listings for March 168. An increase from February's 108. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 144.
Accepted offers for March, 307. In February it was 159. Last year in March it was 157.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 112%. February, 62.8%. Last March, 35.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 47.4%. February, 21.1%. Last March, 14.6% (yes, even with the stimulus program!)
Months supply of inventory 3.9. February, 7.0. Last March 7.5
Condominiums:
Active inventory 238*. This is down from February's 280. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 335.
Sold listings for March 52. An increase from February's 42. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 43.
Accepted offers for March 90. In February, it was 59. Last year in March, it was 57.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 109.8%. February, 67%. Last March 53.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 37.8%. February, 21.1%. Last March 17%.
Months supply of inventory 4.6. February, 6.7. Last March 7.8.
New "open" transaction files are being welcomed into Marin County real estate brokerages at an increasingly and encouragingly fast pace. Multiple offer situations becoming more common although not going wildly over asking prices as in the past, due to much stricter appraisals and lender standards as well as buyer reluctance. Lots of distressed property sales still working their way through the system also holding prices down and for the moment, mortgage rates are still excellent. This tremendous opportunity for Buyers Won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
CNN.Money.com staff writer Les Christie (and a lot of other people too) has been talking about a "double dip" housing recession. In a March 29 article "Home prices near a double dip", he wrote, "I think prices will drop another 5% to 10%.--------The double dip will hit in the next couple of months." (read the full article)
http://cnnmoney.mobi/primary/_T0o1le-iJAAuzZYl4
Mr. Christie is referring to the national housing market, an animal that barely exists, since it is composed of averages of thousands of individual markets which vary greatly from each other in their performance at any given point in time. And with regard to the national averages, Mr. Christie may or may not be right---- but he obviously hasn't been to Marin County recently!
Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest report for the period ending March 31 shows the following extremely encouraging statistics:
Single Family Residences:
Active inventory 647*. This is down from February's 754. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 1,078
Sold listings for March 168. An increase from February's 108. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 144.
Accepted offers for March, 307. In February it was 159. Last year in March it was 157.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 112%. February, 62.8%. Last March, 35.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 47.4%. February, 21.1%. Last March, 14.6% (yes, even with the stimulus program!)
Months supply of inventory 3.9. February, 7.0. Last March 7.5
Condominiums:
Active inventory 238*. This is down from February's 280. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 335.
Sold listings for March 52. An increase from February's 42. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 43.
Accepted offers for March 90. In February, it was 59. Last year in March, it was 57.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 109.8%. February, 67%. Last March 53.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 37.8%. February, 21.1%. Last March 17%.
Months supply of inventory 4.6. February, 6.7. Last March 7.8.
New "open" transaction files are being welcomed into Marin County real estate brokerages at an increasingly and encouragingly fast pace. Multiple offer situations becoming more common although not going wildly over asking prices as in the past, due to much stricter appraisals and lender standards as well as buyer reluctance. Lots of distressed property sales still working their way through the system also holding prices down and for the moment, mortgage rates are still excellent. This tremendous opportunity for Buyers Won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, March 21, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 03.13.11
Hello Everyone,
This is not the first time we have mentioned the quote about statistics attributed to Mark Twain, but the subject of this week's article compels us to make use of it again. The following excerpt from Wikipedia describes and encapsulates Twain's use of the phrase "Lies, damned lies, and statistics", though it reports that the origin of the quotation is disputed. See the full Wikipedia citation for an interesting read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed. The most plausible, given current evidence, is Englishman Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843–1911).
Whatever the origin of the idea that statistics can be manipulated to support multiple positions, it is certainly a concept that is germane to the subject of this week's report.
Inventory has been building slowly but consistently for the last several weeks, for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's, and sales have been gaining momentum, particularly in Condo's and SFR's priced under $1million. 40.47% of MLS-listed SFR's under $1million were in contract as of March 15 even though overall SFR percentage in contract decreased about one and a half points, from 33.49% to 31.99%, largely on soft sales in the $1-3 million range. Sales of homes over $3million defied the trend, and actually increased from 7.59% in contract to 10.87% in contract. Overall days on market (DOM) for YTD sold SFR properties at 128 as of March 15. YTD SFR units sold as of 3.15.10 were 279, up 4.9% from the same period last year. This, all the more significant because of the artificial bump that sales received from the buyer tax incentives in the first half of 2010. Condo sales showing a similar, but even more pronounced trend, with percentage in contract of units under $1million at 35.25% and overall YTD condo unit sales of 96 up 14.3% from the 84 units sold in the same period last year.
We have mentioned a number of times in previous reports that in spite of percentages in contract that have historically been recognized as sellers' markets, sellers currently experience very limited ability to push the price envelope in this market climate. We have recognized for some time that the characterization of the market as "Buyers", "Sellers", etc. might bear some adjustment due to changes brought about by the large percentage of distressed sales in the Marin County real estate market, and we will try to explain why we feel that way. (Thank you, Mr. Twain)
During the period from January 1 to March 15, there were approximately 374 unit sales of SFR's and Condo's. The average sales price was $756,637, DOM were 134, and the average ratio of sales price to list price was 94.5%. Out of this total, approximately 147 units were what we would call "normal sales". Their combined average sales price was $981,132, DOM were 103, and the ratio of sales price to list price was about 93%. REO's, (real estate owned, or repossessions) accounted for approximately 65 units of the total. The average sales price of those units was $481,218, DOM were only 89, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 98.4%. Short sales accounted for approximately 36 units of the total. The average DOM were 243. Average sales price was $519,102, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 97%. There are several other sales segments that are not included here, so the examples listed do not add up to total YTD sales. But, from the examples it is easy to see that a characterization of the overall market does not necessarily represent a marketing prediction for any particular segment or specific home. What the overall view does do, if it is applied consistently over time, is show market movement and market trends. Consistency is normally considered a virtue, however, when conditions change, it is sometimes necessary to make adjustments. We believe that the abnormally long sale and escrow process for some types of distressed sales sales is inflating the percentage in contract to a significant degree. To characterize the market more accurately, we plan to adjust the percentages in contract that we use to describe the various kinds of markets. We will do this beginning with our next report, which marks the start of a new calendar quarter.
However we label the various segments, current market activity seems quite brisk, the atmosphere is upbeat, and the year ahead looks hopeful. We look forward to being able to continue to report to you on this positive note.
Until next time, wishing you all the best,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
This is not the first time we have mentioned the quote about statistics attributed to Mark Twain, but the subject of this week's article compels us to make use of it again. The following excerpt from Wikipedia describes and encapsulates Twain's use of the phrase "Lies, damned lies, and statistics", though it reports that the origin of the quotation is disputed. See the full Wikipedia citation for an interesting read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed. The most plausible, given current evidence, is Englishman Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843–1911).
Whatever the origin of the idea that statistics can be manipulated to support multiple positions, it is certainly a concept that is germane to the subject of this week's report.
Inventory has been building slowly but consistently for the last several weeks, for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's, and sales have been gaining momentum, particularly in Condo's and SFR's priced under $1million. 40.47% of MLS-listed SFR's under $1million were in contract as of March 15 even though overall SFR percentage in contract decreased about one and a half points, from 33.49% to 31.99%, largely on soft sales in the $1-3 million range. Sales of homes over $3million defied the trend, and actually increased from 7.59% in contract to 10.87% in contract. Overall days on market (DOM) for YTD sold SFR properties at 128 as of March 15. YTD SFR units sold as of 3.15.10 were 279, up 4.9% from the same period last year. This, all the more significant because of the artificial bump that sales received from the buyer tax incentives in the first half of 2010. Condo sales showing a similar, but even more pronounced trend, with percentage in contract of units under $1million at 35.25% and overall YTD condo unit sales of 96 up 14.3% from the 84 units sold in the same period last year.
We have mentioned a number of times in previous reports that in spite of percentages in contract that have historically been recognized as sellers' markets, sellers currently experience very limited ability to push the price envelope in this market climate. We have recognized for some time that the characterization of the market as "Buyers", "Sellers", etc. might bear some adjustment due to changes brought about by the large percentage of distressed sales in the Marin County real estate market, and we will try to explain why we feel that way. (Thank you, Mr. Twain)
During the period from January 1 to March 15, there were approximately 374 unit sales of SFR's and Condo's. The average sales price was $756,637, DOM were 134, and the average ratio of sales price to list price was 94.5%. Out of this total, approximately 147 units were what we would call "normal sales". Their combined average sales price was $981,132, DOM were 103, and the ratio of sales price to list price was about 93%. REO's, (real estate owned, or repossessions) accounted for approximately 65 units of the total. The average sales price of those units was $481,218, DOM were only 89, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 98.4%. Short sales accounted for approximately 36 units of the total. The average DOM were 243. Average sales price was $519,102, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 97%. There are several other sales segments that are not included here, so the examples listed do not add up to total YTD sales. But, from the examples it is easy to see that a characterization of the overall market does not necessarily represent a marketing prediction for any particular segment or specific home. What the overall view does do, if it is applied consistently over time, is show market movement and market trends. Consistency is normally considered a virtue, however, when conditions change, it is sometimes necessary to make adjustments. We believe that the abnormally long sale and escrow process for some types of distressed sales sales is inflating the percentage in contract to a significant degree. To characterize the market more accurately, we plan to adjust the percentages in contract that we use to describe the various kinds of markets. We will do this beginning with our next report, which marks the start of a new calendar quarter.
However we label the various segments, current market activity seems quite brisk, the atmosphere is upbeat, and the year ahead looks hopeful. We look forward to being able to continue to report to you on this positive note.
Until next time, wishing you all the best,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, March 7, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 03.06.11
Hello Everyone,
Events in the Middle East had just about everyone guessing and the financial markets rocking and rolling this week. Gasoline again up around $4 a gallon. Dow Jones managed to eke out a small gain for the week after a dramatic drop on Tuesday, a big recovery on Thursday, and an unstable market on Friday with a triple-digit drop that was erased by the end of the day, leaving a .3% gain for the week. See Wall St Journal online:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703300904576178612184267474.html
Freddie Mac, in a March 3 report, showed a current aveage rate for a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage (in the western region) of 4.83%, noting that this was the third week of improving mortgage rates. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/release.html
HSH.com, a financial publishing service, notes, in a February 25 article "That improvement is largely related to a flight-to-safety buy of Treasury bonds. Yields on ten-year US Treasuries (which influence fixed mortgage rates) have dropped by perhaps 20 basis points or so over that time, dragging mortgage rates in the same direction, if to a lesser degree." The article, referring to investors' reaction to the continued instability in the Middle East, goes on to say: "As long as the US remains the place to stash cash when these global events occur, at least some benefit will accrue to American mortgage seekers. However, these events and any benefits are of unpredictable duration, so folks actively engaged in the mortgage process would do well to move quickly to lock in rates and secure transactions." http://www.hsh.com/trends.html
Here in Marin County, there is quite a bit of encouraging real estate activity. One bit of news that looks disappointing at first but, upon further examination appears much more hopeful, is the spike in Days on Market (DOM) for sold properties. According to CB MarketQuest, average DOM for YTD sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) spiked from 117 in January to 160 in February. The numbers for Condo's were similar, 108 average DOM in January, jumping to 140 in February. In both cases, these numbers appear to represent the sale of properties that had been on the market for extended periods of time, significantly raising the average sales time when included with other recently sold properties. To understand this, we need to look at inventory levels, which remain persistently low due to many sellers' reluctance to place their properties on the market to compete with distressed sales that hold average prices down. In addition, the traditional spring sales period is still a few weeks in the future. According to MarketQuest, active inventory at the end of February was 552 units for SFR's and 212 for Condo's (differs from MLS figures due to how properties in contract are counted). For SFR's, this figure compares to 877 units in February of '10 and 935 in '09. For Condo's, the February '10 figure was 310 units and in '09, it was 329.
There has been a surge in buyer activity, with 244 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's in February, both figures representing the largest numbers in over 2 years. This, according to MarketQuest's statistics, has resulted in a very low months supply of inventory (MSI) --- 5.5 for SFR's and 5.3 for Condo's. This attrition of inventory helps to explain the dramatically increased figures for DOM, as buyers with limited choices dig deep into the pool of older, unslold properties, and sellers with enhanced market awareness born of long experience make deals to put their properties in escrow. Please see attached SFR and Condo Market Action Reports for more numbers and details on the local market.
The popular City-by-City Analysis out this week shows 6 of 13 towns and cities covered as strong or very strong sellers' markets, with in excess of 35% of listed properties in contract.
Kentfield leading the pack, with an astonishing 47% in contract. Novato next in line with 41.73%, or 111 of 266 properties, and Corte Madera close behind, with 41.18%. Belvedere still at the bottom of the heap, but with a big improvement at 14.29% in contract compared to last month's 3.33%. Overall, 33.49% of SFR's and 32.6% of Condo's listed for sale on March 1 were in contract. (These figures from Marin County MLS). Sellers should be encouraged by these results but need to remain aware that this market is price sensitive and finely-balanced. Competition from distressed sales keeps a lid on prices, with, of course, exceptions for certain very special or unique properties. Lenders' appraisals continue to be very rigorous too. Not that unusual to see purchase prices adjusted downward following lender appraisal.
Locally, lots of agents looking forward to the spring market with anticipation. Professional REALTORS who know your market still the best source of information on your specific neighborhood.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Events in the Middle East had just about everyone guessing and the financial markets rocking and rolling this week. Gasoline again up around $4 a gallon. Dow Jones managed to eke out a small gain for the week after a dramatic drop on Tuesday, a big recovery on Thursday, and an unstable market on Friday with a triple-digit drop that was erased by the end of the day, leaving a .3% gain for the week. See Wall St Journal online:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703300904576178612184267474.html
Freddie Mac, in a March 3 report, showed a current aveage rate for a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage (in the western region) of 4.83%, noting that this was the third week of improving mortgage rates. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/release.html
HSH.com, a financial publishing service, notes, in a February 25 article "That improvement is largely related to a flight-to-safety buy of Treasury bonds. Yields on ten-year US Treasuries (which influence fixed mortgage rates) have dropped by perhaps 20 basis points or so over that time, dragging mortgage rates in the same direction, if to a lesser degree." The article, referring to investors' reaction to the continued instability in the Middle East, goes on to say: "As long as the US remains the place to stash cash when these global events occur, at least some benefit will accrue to American mortgage seekers. However, these events and any benefits are of unpredictable duration, so folks actively engaged in the mortgage process would do well to move quickly to lock in rates and secure transactions." http://www.hsh.com/trends.html
Here in Marin County, there is quite a bit of encouraging real estate activity. One bit of news that looks disappointing at first but, upon further examination appears much more hopeful, is the spike in Days on Market (DOM) for sold properties. According to CB MarketQuest, average DOM for YTD sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) spiked from 117 in January to 160 in February. The numbers for Condo's were similar, 108 average DOM in January, jumping to 140 in February. In both cases, these numbers appear to represent the sale of properties that had been on the market for extended periods of time, significantly raising the average sales time when included with other recently sold properties. To understand this, we need to look at inventory levels, which remain persistently low due to many sellers' reluctance to place their properties on the market to compete with distressed sales that hold average prices down. In addition, the traditional spring sales period is still a few weeks in the future. According to MarketQuest, active inventory at the end of February was 552 units for SFR's and 212 for Condo's (differs from MLS figures due to how properties in contract are counted). For SFR's, this figure compares to 877 units in February of '10 and 935 in '09. For Condo's, the February '10 figure was 310 units and in '09, it was 329.
There has been a surge in buyer activity, with 244 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's in February, both figures representing the largest numbers in over 2 years. This, according to MarketQuest's statistics, has resulted in a very low months supply of inventory (MSI) --- 5.5 for SFR's and 5.3 for Condo's. This attrition of inventory helps to explain the dramatically increased figures for DOM, as buyers with limited choices dig deep into the pool of older, unslold properties, and sellers with enhanced market awareness born of long experience make deals to put their properties in escrow. Please see attached SFR and Condo Market Action Reports for more numbers and details on the local market.
The popular City-by-City Analysis out this week shows 6 of 13 towns and cities covered as strong or very strong sellers' markets, with in excess of 35% of listed properties in contract.
Kentfield leading the pack, with an astonishing 47% in contract. Novato next in line with 41.73%, or 111 of 266 properties, and Corte Madera close behind, with 41.18%. Belvedere still at the bottom of the heap, but with a big improvement at 14.29% in contract compared to last month's 3.33%. Overall, 33.49% of SFR's and 32.6% of Condo's listed for sale on March 1 were in contract. (These figures from Marin County MLS). Sellers should be encouraged by these results but need to remain aware that this market is price sensitive and finely-balanced. Competition from distressed sales keeps a lid on prices, with, of course, exceptions for certain very special or unique properties. Lenders' appraisals continue to be very rigorous too. Not that unusual to see purchase prices adjusted downward following lender appraisal.
Locally, lots of agents looking forward to the spring market with anticipation. Professional REALTORS who know your market still the best source of information on your specific neighborhood.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, February 21, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.20.11
Hello Everyone,
DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego-based real estate news and information service, in a February 17 article, quoted its President, John Walsh, as saying something we have been emphacizing for the last couple of reports:
"January and February are the two months of the year that are the least predictive of upcoming trends. That said, last month’s activity was a continuation of trends we saw much of last year. The market is still dominated by distress sales and bargain hunting. We’re seeing little discretionary activity”.
However, the article also includes a chart comparing 2010 and 2011 YTD housing sales volume and prices by County. That table shows January (combined SFR and condo) unit home sales in Mariin County up 13.7% from 153 in January 2010 to 174 this year even though the median sales price for the period was down 6.5% from $535,000 to $500,000. These numbers are not exactly the same as ours (from the local MLS) but show the same trend--- unit sales up (mostly attributable to condo sales) and prices down. Full text of the DataQuick article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110217.aspx
A recent check of the Bareis/ Rappatoni MLS revealed that 269 out of 823 total SFR listings in Marin (over 32%) and 138 of 274 Condo listings (about 50%) were some sort of distressed sale (foreclosure, NOD, REO, VA repo, or short sale). Much of this activity is in Novato and San Rafael, but there is a significant amount of it throughout the County. Low prices generated by these distressed sales tend to keep a lid on non-distressed inventory as well. Inventory of homes for sale is low because owners who can postpone selling in this market tend to do so, hoping to get a better price later. Immaculate, extremely well-located homes do buck this trend a bit though they are still subject to its general influence. Owners who do choose to sell now are well-advised to pay careful attention to comparable sales and to dress their home for success by staging attractively and making it easy to show. Professional photography can make an enormous difference in a home's appearance on the MLS, generating more interest and more showings. Our formula of Preparation, Presentation, and Pricing bears repeatimg again and again. An experienced, professional REALTOR, familiar with your neighborhood is your best ally when planning to sell your home in today's market environment.
Many buyers still feeling frustrated by lack of available inventory. Multiple offers often generated when several of them pounce on the same attractive listing at the same time. Some of these multiple-offer situations are going over asking price, but not anywhere near as much as in the hot markets of just a few years ago. Recent gains in the stock market have folks feeling more confident about the economy and more comfortable about making a long-term financial commitment to a mortgage, although financial fallout from the recession/depression like Borders Books declaring bankruptcy last week, continues to dog the economy.
Many local real estate agents optimistic about prospects for better sales in 2011. Open houses are well-attended. Buyers are out in force and writing offers. Escrows are being opened. Some are falling through, but many are closing. There is anticipation in the air. Stock market is up. News of interest rates heading up is starting to make some buyers wonder if it is time to jump on board the train before it leaves the station. Are they correct? We will see soon enough.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes, to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego-based real estate news and information service, in a February 17 article, quoted its President, John Walsh, as saying something we have been emphacizing for the last couple of reports:
"January and February are the two months of the year that are the least predictive of upcoming trends. That said, last month’s activity was a continuation of trends we saw much of last year. The market is still dominated by distress sales and bargain hunting. We’re seeing little discretionary activity”.
However, the article also includes a chart comparing 2010 and 2011 YTD housing sales volume and prices by County. That table shows January (combined SFR and condo) unit home sales in Mariin County up 13.7% from 153 in January 2010 to 174 this year even though the median sales price for the period was down 6.5% from $535,000 to $500,000. These numbers are not exactly the same as ours (from the local MLS) but show the same trend--- unit sales up (mostly attributable to condo sales) and prices down. Full text of the DataQuick article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110217.aspx
A recent check of the Bareis/ Rappatoni MLS revealed that 269 out of 823 total SFR listings in Marin (over 32%) and 138 of 274 Condo listings (about 50%) were some sort of distressed sale (foreclosure, NOD, REO, VA repo, or short sale). Much of this activity is in Novato and San Rafael, but there is a significant amount of it throughout the County. Low prices generated by these distressed sales tend to keep a lid on non-distressed inventory as well. Inventory of homes for sale is low because owners who can postpone selling in this market tend to do so, hoping to get a better price later. Immaculate, extremely well-located homes do buck this trend a bit though they are still subject to its general influence. Owners who do choose to sell now are well-advised to pay careful attention to comparable sales and to dress their home for success by staging attractively and making it easy to show. Professional photography can make an enormous difference in a home's appearance on the MLS, generating more interest and more showings. Our formula of Preparation, Presentation, and Pricing bears repeatimg again and again. An experienced, professional REALTOR, familiar with your neighborhood is your best ally when planning to sell your home in today's market environment.
Many buyers still feeling frustrated by lack of available inventory. Multiple offers often generated when several of them pounce on the same attractive listing at the same time. Some of these multiple-offer situations are going over asking price, but not anywhere near as much as in the hot markets of just a few years ago. Recent gains in the stock market have folks feeling more confident about the economy and more comfortable about making a long-term financial commitment to a mortgage, although financial fallout from the recession/depression like Borders Books declaring bankruptcy last week, continues to dog the economy.
Many local real estate agents optimistic about prospects for better sales in 2011. Open houses are well-attended. Buyers are out in force and writing offers. Escrows are being opened. Some are falling through, but many are closing. There is anticipation in the air. Stock market is up. News of interest rates heading up is starting to make some buyers wonder if it is time to jump on board the train before it leaves the station. Are they correct? We will see soon enough.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes, to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, February 7, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 02.07.11
2.6.11
Hello Everyone,
Our comment of two weeks ago bears repeating. Last winter's real estate market, our current standard of comparison, was artificially inflated by Federal Homebuyer tax credits. As buyers rushed to get in on the tax-savings action, they skewed the numbers of sales by pushing them into the 1st and 2nd quarters. All of that artificial demand put a bit of upward pressure on prices too. So when we look at YTD sales of 87 Single Family Residences on February 1 (compared to 98 last year), a drop of 11.2%, it is really not such a bad number--- especially since it has gained significant ground since our last report, when it stood at -25.5%. Condo's, on the other hand, are actually up 3 units, from 37 last year to 40 on February 1. Prices have not held up as well though, with the average YTD sold price of an SFR at $824,748 compared to the year-ago figure of $1,114,266. Condo average sale prices also down, with an average YTD sold price of $338,593 on Feb 1 compared to last year's $392,979. These numbers affected significantly by market-mix, meaning that lower-value homes have been selling and not all of the price difference is value erosion.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 covered markets in the County up since last report, 4 down, and 1 (Ross) unchanged. Belvedere holding down the bottom of the pyramid at 3.33%, or only 1 of 30 active listings in contract. Fairfax at the apex with 43.75% and Novato close behind with 42.75%. Kentfield winning the "most improved" award, for going from 11% in contract at the end of December to 38% as of February 1!
SFR active inventory for Jan 31 lowest in over 2 years at only 583 units (CB MarketQuest*), compared to 827 in 2010 and 883 in '09. Accepted offers for January at 113% of new listings, down a bit from December's 140%, but still far above last January's 43% and '09's 24%. Months supply of inventory at 6.6, up a bit from December's 4.6, but still far better than 2010's 8.8 and 2009's 12.4. Upper-end homes doing better too, with 22.75% of homes in contract in the $1-2million dollar range, 25.5% in the $2-3 million dollar bracket, and homes over $3million up over 10% in contract.
Condo active inventory also lowest in more than 2 years at 193 units (CB MarketQuest*) compared to 266 in Jan 2010 and 287 in '09. Accepted condo offers for January at 71 more than double last year's 33 and Jan '09's 34. Months supply of condo inventory at 4.8 actually down from December's 5.9, as well as both Jan '10 and '09, which came in at 7.4 and 8.2, respectively. Condo percentage in contract overall at 35.8%, with those under $1million slightly better at 36.7%.
Lots of short sale and REO activity still going on. Multiple offers not unusual in the current market, but even with 4 or 5 offers most properties not going very far over asking price. Many agents optimistic about the year ahead and local offices busy with all the open escrows, but deals often challenging to bring to a successful conclusion. Interest rates a bit higher than the lowest lows, but still great. Read the attached January MarketQuest SFR and Condo reports for more details, and decide for yourself what kind of a year you think 2011 will turn out to be in the world of Marin County real estate. Email fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for a copy of Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's article "The Best Time in History to Buy a House" for an interesting perspective on today's real estate values compared to the entire 20th century!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
* CB MarketQuest statistics and MLS statistics count "active listings" differently because of the way in which each includes or excludes contingent and/or pending listings.
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Our comment of two weeks ago bears repeating. Last winter's real estate market, our current standard of comparison, was artificially inflated by Federal Homebuyer tax credits. As buyers rushed to get in on the tax-savings action, they skewed the numbers of sales by pushing them into the 1st and 2nd quarters. All of that artificial demand put a bit of upward pressure on prices too. So when we look at YTD sales of 87 Single Family Residences on February 1 (compared to 98 last year), a drop of 11.2%, it is really not such a bad number--- especially since it has gained significant ground since our last report, when it stood at -25.5%. Condo's, on the other hand, are actually up 3 units, from 37 last year to 40 on February 1. Prices have not held up as well though, with the average YTD sold price of an SFR at $824,748 compared to the year-ago figure of $1,114,266. Condo average sale prices also down, with an average YTD sold price of $338,593 on Feb 1 compared to last year's $392,979. These numbers affected significantly by market-mix, meaning that lower-value homes have been selling and not all of the price difference is value erosion.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 covered markets in the County up since last report, 4 down, and 1 (Ross) unchanged. Belvedere holding down the bottom of the pyramid at 3.33%, or only 1 of 30 active listings in contract. Fairfax at the apex with 43.75% and Novato close behind with 42.75%. Kentfield winning the "most improved" award, for going from 11% in contract at the end of December to 38% as of February 1!
SFR active inventory for Jan 31 lowest in over 2 years at only 583 units (CB MarketQuest*), compared to 827 in 2010 and 883 in '09. Accepted offers for January at 113% of new listings, down a bit from December's 140%, but still far above last January's 43% and '09's 24%. Months supply of inventory at 6.6, up a bit from December's 4.6, but still far better than 2010's 8.8 and 2009's 12.4. Upper-end homes doing better too, with 22.75% of homes in contract in the $1-2million dollar range, 25.5% in the $2-3 million dollar bracket, and homes over $3million up over 10% in contract.
Condo active inventory also lowest in more than 2 years at 193 units (CB MarketQuest*) compared to 266 in Jan 2010 and 287 in '09. Accepted condo offers for January at 71 more than double last year's 33 and Jan '09's 34. Months supply of condo inventory at 4.8 actually down from December's 5.9, as well as both Jan '10 and '09, which came in at 7.4 and 8.2, respectively. Condo percentage in contract overall at 35.8%, with those under $1million slightly better at 36.7%.
Lots of short sale and REO activity still going on. Multiple offers not unusual in the current market, but even with 4 or 5 offers most properties not going very far over asking price. Many agents optimistic about the year ahead and local offices busy with all the open escrows, but deals often challenging to bring to a successful conclusion. Interest rates a bit higher than the lowest lows, but still great. Read the attached January MarketQuest SFR and Condo reports for more details, and decide for yourself what kind of a year you think 2011 will turn out to be in the world of Marin County real estate. Email fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for a copy of Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's article "The Best Time in History to Buy a House" for an interesting perspective on today's real estate values compared to the entire 20th century!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
* CB MarketQuest statistics and MLS statistics count "active listings" differently because of the way in which each includes or excludes contingent and/or pending listings.
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, January 22, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.22.11
Hello Everyone,
DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service, in an article dated January 20, featured the headline
Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
(full text available at) http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110120.aspx
This wasn't exactly true in Marin County as there were a combined total of 195 SFR's and Condo's sold here during the month of December. While this represented about 14% fewer home sales than the comparable period in 2009, Days on Market (DOM) actually dropped a couple of days (from 118 to 116) and a number of local REALTORS closed out the year with a welcome but unexpected flurry of last minute sales. Now that the Holidays have ended and the New Year has arrived, we have begun to see more homes added to the available inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's. Some of these are fresh listings and some are "recycled" listings that were taken off the market at the end of 2010 and are now coming back on after a 30 day or more "rest" with the DOM counter reset to zero. As we approach the late winter and spring selling seasons, we normally expect the local housing inventory to continue to increase. This should be a welcome event for many frustrated wannabee home buyers who have been looking and looking but not finding and who are unwilling to "settle" for something that really doesn't meet their needs. While it is still too soon to tell what kind of market we will have this year, many local agents are optimistic and looking forward to at least a modest improvement in home sales for 2011.
Here's what we have seen so far:
Single Family Residence (SFR)
Overall inventory increased from 740 on January 6 to 770 on January 19 and percentage in contract increased from 27.8% to 29.8%. Homes under $1 million did even better with an increase from33.96% in contract to 36.49% while number of listed homes in that price range increased from 480 to 496. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range relatively stable at 21.38% in contract while listed units did increase by 11, to 159. Upper-end homes doing somewhat better than previously, with 9 of 44 listed units in contract as of Jan 19, or 20.45%. This compares to 17.39% at last report. Homes over $3 million also enjoying greater sales activity, with 6 of 71 homes on the market in contract (8.45% compared to 4.55% on January 6). YTD sales of SFR's as of January 19 were 38 units, compared to 51 in 2010, or down 25%, and DOM for homes sold during that period were 112, compared to the year-ago figure of 97. Average sold price at $885,616 compared to $1,233,119 in the same period a year ago. This appears to be an inauspicious start to the year but the number of sales is still very low so a "market mix" of lower-priced or less desirable homes can have an unbalancing effect on early-in-the-year statistics. In addition, we will have to remember during the first half of this year that we are comparing to 2010's skewed 1st and 2nd quarter sales resulting from the homebuyer tax credits.
Condo's
Overall inventory increased from 266 on January 6 to 271 on January 19, but the number of units in contract remained static at 94, pulling the percentage in contract down slightly from 35.34% to 34.69%. There was only one condo over $1million in contract of the 10 units on the market on January 19, or 10%, matching the level on January 6 when we last reported. YTD sales of condo's as of January 19 were 16 units, compared to 20 in 2010, or down 20%, and DOM for condo's sold during that period were 126, compared to the year-ago figure of 114. Average sold price at $321,006 compared to $334,841 in the same period a year ago. Please see remarks above under SFR's regarding these statistics which one would hope are not a harbinger of the year ahead!
Stay tuned for new developments as the year rolls out ahead of us.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service, in an article dated January 20, featured the headline
Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
(full text available at) http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110120.aspx
This wasn't exactly true in Marin County as there were a combined total of 195 SFR's and Condo's sold here during the month of December. While this represented about 14% fewer home sales than the comparable period in 2009, Days on Market (DOM) actually dropped a couple of days (from 118 to 116) and a number of local REALTORS closed out the year with a welcome but unexpected flurry of last minute sales. Now that the Holidays have ended and the New Year has arrived, we have begun to see more homes added to the available inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's. Some of these are fresh listings and some are "recycled" listings that were taken off the market at the end of 2010 and are now coming back on after a 30 day or more "rest" with the DOM counter reset to zero. As we approach the late winter and spring selling seasons, we normally expect the local housing inventory to continue to increase. This should be a welcome event for many frustrated wannabee home buyers who have been looking and looking but not finding and who are unwilling to "settle" for something that really doesn't meet their needs. While it is still too soon to tell what kind of market we will have this year, many local agents are optimistic and looking forward to at least a modest improvement in home sales for 2011.
Here's what we have seen so far:
Single Family Residence (SFR)
Overall inventory increased from 740 on January 6 to 770 on January 19 and percentage in contract increased from 27.8% to 29.8%. Homes under $1 million did even better with an increase from33.96% in contract to 36.49% while number of listed homes in that price range increased from 480 to 496. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range relatively stable at 21.38% in contract while listed units did increase by 11, to 159. Upper-end homes doing somewhat better than previously, with 9 of 44 listed units in contract as of Jan 19, or 20.45%. This compares to 17.39% at last report. Homes over $3 million also enjoying greater sales activity, with 6 of 71 homes on the market in contract (8.45% compared to 4.55% on January 6). YTD sales of SFR's as of January 19 were 38 units, compared to 51 in 2010, or down 25%, and DOM for homes sold during that period were 112, compared to the year-ago figure of 97. Average sold price at $885,616 compared to $1,233,119 in the same period a year ago. This appears to be an inauspicious start to the year but the number of sales is still very low so a "market mix" of lower-priced or less desirable homes can have an unbalancing effect on early-in-the-year statistics. In addition, we will have to remember during the first half of this year that we are comparing to 2010's skewed 1st and 2nd quarter sales resulting from the homebuyer tax credits.
Condo's
Overall inventory increased from 266 on January 6 to 271 on January 19, but the number of units in contract remained static at 94, pulling the percentage in contract down slightly from 35.34% to 34.69%. There was only one condo over $1million in contract of the 10 units on the market on January 19, or 10%, matching the level on January 6 when we last reported. YTD sales of condo's as of January 19 were 16 units, compared to 20 in 2010, or down 20%, and DOM for condo's sold during that period were 126, compared to the year-ago figure of 114. Average sold price at $321,006 compared to $334,841 in the same period a year ago. Please see remarks above under SFR's regarding these statistics which one would hope are not a harbinger of the year ahead!
Stay tuned for new developments as the year rolls out ahead of us.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, January 9, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 01.09.11
Hello Everyone,
A December 16 article by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, quoted their president,John Walsh, who, predicting recovery, but hedging his bets on timing, said:
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” (See full text at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101216.aspx )
Here in Marin County the market is mixed, with some areas doing much better than others. Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows Greenbrae, which topped the charts last month at 46.15% in contract has extended its lead to an astonishing 60.87% in contract, representing 14 of 23 homes on the market in that area. Nothing else in the County even comes close. Novato in 2nd place at 39.76%, down just slightly from last month, a very popular market with lots of attractively priced homes as a result of REO's and short sales. Ross next at 33%, followed by San Anselmo at 29.8%. Belvedere, with its high-end homes still at the bottom of the sales heap with only 7.4% of listed homes in contract-- a fertile hunting ground for value-minded high-end home hunters.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
2010 ended with a total of 1836 sold SFR units in the County, compared to 1668 for the year 2009, hanging on to a year-over-year gain of just over 10% despite a constant erosion since last summer after the end of the buyer tax credits. Active inventory at 622 units, and months supply of inventory at 4.1 as of December 31. New listings in December were down to 110, all figures the lowest in over 24 months. There were 212 accepted offers on SFR's in December, bringing the ratio of accepted offers to existing inventory to 34.1%, and accepted offers to new listings to 192.7%, all three representing the greatest numbers in over 24 months. SFR percentage in contract down slightly overall from 28.17% to 27.14%, with the under-$1million segment down about 1.25 percentage points and the $1million to $2million segment down about 3 percentage points. Big news, though, is that the $2million-$3million segment up substantially from 7.25% in contract at the beginning of December to 17.39% on January 6. This due more to the decrease in listed homes from 69 units to 46 than to the increase of homes in contract from 5 to 8 units. Sold SFR units for December at 151. This compares to 180 in December of 2009 and only 91 in December of 2008. Inventory down, accepted offers up, months supply of inventory down.
Condo statistics reveal a similar story with months supply of inventory at 5.4, the lowest since December of '09 when it stood at 5.2. Since then, it has been as high at 10.6 (in July). The ratio of accepted offers to inventory for December was 32.8%, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings 178.4%, both the highest in over 24 months. Active inventory at 201 condo units on Dec 31. This compares to 251 in December of '09 and 272 in '08. Number of condo units sold at the end of 2010 was 477, about 5.9% less than the 505 units sold in 2009.
A number of real estate agents in the County were unusually busy during the traditionally sleepy period between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. What this means is not clear at this time. Lots of discussion and conjecture among even experienced agents, but the truth is it will probably be about 6 weeks before a trend is established and we get a better idea of how 2011 may look for real estate. As in previous recoveries, we will probably not recognize the market bottom until after we have passed it and prices are on the way up. One thing we do know is that there are plenty of good real estate bargains out there right now. Picking a market bottom is extremely difficult and those who accomplish it often owe it to luck more than to skill. For the rest of us it may just be that waiting for a better deal later could deprive us of a very good deal now.
More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http/www.fredanlyan.com
A December 16 article by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, quoted their president,John Walsh, who, predicting recovery, but hedging his bets on timing, said:
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” (See full text at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101216.aspx )
Here in Marin County the market is mixed, with some areas doing much better than others. Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows Greenbrae, which topped the charts last month at 46.15% in contract has extended its lead to an astonishing 60.87% in contract, representing 14 of 23 homes on the market in that area. Nothing else in the County even comes close. Novato in 2nd place at 39.76%, down just slightly from last month, a very popular market with lots of attractively priced homes as a result of REO's and short sales. Ross next at 33%, followed by San Anselmo at 29.8%. Belvedere, with its high-end homes still at the bottom of the sales heap with only 7.4% of listed homes in contract-- a fertile hunting ground for value-minded high-end home hunters.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
2010 ended with a total of 1836 sold SFR units in the County, compared to 1668 for the year 2009, hanging on to a year-over-year gain of just over 10% despite a constant erosion since last summer after the end of the buyer tax credits. Active inventory at 622 units, and months supply of inventory at 4.1 as of December 31. New listings in December were down to 110, all figures the lowest in over 24 months. There were 212 accepted offers on SFR's in December, bringing the ratio of accepted offers to existing inventory to 34.1%, and accepted offers to new listings to 192.7%, all three representing the greatest numbers in over 24 months. SFR percentage in contract down slightly overall from 28.17% to 27.14%, with the under-$1million segment down about 1.25 percentage points and the $1million to $2million segment down about 3 percentage points. Big news, though, is that the $2million-$3million segment up substantially from 7.25% in contract at the beginning of December to 17.39% on January 6. This due more to the decrease in listed homes from 69 units to 46 than to the increase of homes in contract from 5 to 8 units. Sold SFR units for December at 151. This compares to 180 in December of 2009 and only 91 in December of 2008. Inventory down, accepted offers up, months supply of inventory down.
Condo statistics reveal a similar story with months supply of inventory at 5.4, the lowest since December of '09 when it stood at 5.2. Since then, it has been as high at 10.6 (in July). The ratio of accepted offers to inventory for December was 32.8%, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings 178.4%, both the highest in over 24 months. Active inventory at 201 condo units on Dec 31. This compares to 251 in December of '09 and 272 in '08. Number of condo units sold at the end of 2010 was 477, about 5.9% less than the 505 units sold in 2009.
A number of real estate agents in the County were unusually busy during the traditionally sleepy period between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. What this means is not clear at this time. Lots of discussion and conjecture among even experienced agents, but the truth is it will probably be about 6 weeks before a trend is established and we get a better idea of how 2011 may look for real estate. As in previous recoveries, we will probably not recognize the market bottom until after we have passed it and prices are on the way up. One thing we do know is that there are plenty of good real estate bargains out there right now. Picking a market bottom is extremely difficult and those who accomplish it often owe it to luck more than to skill. For the rest of us it may just be that waiting for a better deal later could deprive us of a very good deal now.
More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http/www.fredanlyan.com
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