for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www/fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.31.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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