Hello Everyone,
In the interest of accurate reporting and analysis, I'll keep my comments to a minimum this week and next. This will allow the holiday weekend to pass and the normal market activity to begin to resume. At that point, perhaps we will get a truer picture of the current market trend here in Marin County.
The spreadsheets for the past week are available at http://www.fredanlyan.com/ . Next week, the monthly city-by-city report will be out and should be indicative of how the various local markets are faring.
In the last week, the inventory of Single Family Residences continued to decline, and is now at 886, versus 903 the prior week. In spite of this, the overall in-contract rate is under 21%, a buyers' market, and YTD SFR sales fell below the year-ago mark for the first time this year. All price ranges of the SFR market are now in buyers' market territory, but this does not mean that every city or every neighborhood or every home is a buyers' opportunity for negotiation. There are still multiple offers and properties going over asking price. Mill Valley is one of the areas where this is happening. Still, even in these areas, pricing is critical and overpricing is to be avoided. The best course of action for buyers and sellers in this type of market is to consult a trusted and experienced real estate professional to help walk the market tightrope. Success is within reach but excellent information and advice are critical components.
The Condo market continues to be challenging, with inventory up to 312 units vs. 305 a week ago. Condo YTD unit sales are running about 16% below the same date last year, after lagging for most of the year. The majority of the condo market remains in buyers' market territory. This market represents a great opportunity for smart buyers, but,again, not every unit is an opportunity for negotiation. Some prime units are still selling well. An experienced local real estate professional is the best source of guidance for both buyers and sellers. Owners needing to sell now can be successful with careful pricing, preparation and presentation. This is a time to tune in to the market and go with the flow, rather than trying out an overly aggressive price.
more next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, August 31, 2007
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 08.21.2007
Hello Everyone,
The lender liquidity crisis struck home with the closing of Novato's Greenpoint Mortgage, an arm of Capital One. Over 400 people were laid off.
Although it is challenging to try to separate the normally slower August real estate market in Marin from the effects of the lender liquidity/mortgage meltdown problems, we should remember that we have a number of advantages here in Marin. Land is limited and there is not a great deal of new construction to saturate the market and compete with the sale of existing homes. There are a lot of individuals with a great deal of cash available. This is one of the most beautiful areas in the world, and is right next door to a world-class city. It will always be a desirable area. Does this make us immune to market forces? No. Is it a great buffer? Absolutely.
Buyers and sellers are trying to transcend the current uncertainty and decide on the best course of action. Some are waiting for the next meeting of the Fed to see if they lower interest rates, and how much. From the people I have talked to, it seems a good bet that the Fed will vote to lower, but it probably will not have an immediate downward effect on mortgage rates. It may help hold off further increases though. Normally, the financial markets automatically figure in the effect of future Fed actions, so the only time news has a really immediate effect is when the action is not what everyone expected. Then there is a correction.
Market conditions in Marin are a bit sluggish, with all segments of the Single Family Residence market in buyers' territory. Even the formerly red hot sellers' market in SFR's under $1million has cooled and is at 22.5% in contract--- a solid buyers' market. Condominiums, with one exception, are all deeply in buyers' market territory. The exception is the $1-2million segment which is comprised of only 16 listings, and is currently "balanced" at 25% in contract. Having said that, well-priced prime homes in prime areas are still selling quickly, sometimes with multiple offers and over asking price. Even in a buyers' market, not every property is an opportunity for negotiation. An experienced REALTOR with knowledge of the area is a prime asset in doing research and making offers in the current market.
Successful buyers and sellers are seeking the assistance of experienced real estate professionals. These savvy agents are scrutinizing loan arrangements very carefully and keeping tabs on loans constantly. Is the mortgage broker known and experienced? Is the lender solid? Has the buyer's pre-approval been updated? Within the last week?
Pricing, preparation, and presentation of homes for sale are absolutely critical in this market as is the willingness to negotiate. I heard a story today of a seller who turned away a buyer over a $5,000 impasse in negotiations. Shortly thereafter, the seller had a change of heart but the buyer had moved on. Offers from qualified buyers are worth their weight in gold!
More next week-------
Until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com/
The lender liquidity crisis struck home with the closing of Novato's Greenpoint Mortgage, an arm of Capital One. Over 400 people were laid off.
Although it is challenging to try to separate the normally slower August real estate market in Marin from the effects of the lender liquidity/mortgage meltdown problems, we should remember that we have a number of advantages here in Marin. Land is limited and there is not a great deal of new construction to saturate the market and compete with the sale of existing homes. There are a lot of individuals with a great deal of cash available. This is one of the most beautiful areas in the world, and is right next door to a world-class city. It will always be a desirable area. Does this make us immune to market forces? No. Is it a great buffer? Absolutely.
Buyers and sellers are trying to transcend the current uncertainty and decide on the best course of action. Some are waiting for the next meeting of the Fed to see if they lower interest rates, and how much. From the people I have talked to, it seems a good bet that the Fed will vote to lower, but it probably will not have an immediate downward effect on mortgage rates. It may help hold off further increases though. Normally, the financial markets automatically figure in the effect of future Fed actions, so the only time news has a really immediate effect is when the action is not what everyone expected. Then there is a correction.
Market conditions in Marin are a bit sluggish, with all segments of the Single Family Residence market in buyers' territory. Even the formerly red hot sellers' market in SFR's under $1million has cooled and is at 22.5% in contract--- a solid buyers' market. Condominiums, with one exception, are all deeply in buyers' market territory. The exception is the $1-2million segment which is comprised of only 16 listings, and is currently "balanced" at 25% in contract. Having said that, well-priced prime homes in prime areas are still selling quickly, sometimes with multiple offers and over asking price. Even in a buyers' market, not every property is an opportunity for negotiation. An experienced REALTOR with knowledge of the area is a prime asset in doing research and making offers in the current market.
Successful buyers and sellers are seeking the assistance of experienced real estate professionals. These savvy agents are scrutinizing loan arrangements very carefully and keeping tabs on loans constantly. Is the mortgage broker known and experienced? Is the lender solid? Has the buyer's pre-approval been updated? Within the last week?
Pricing, preparation, and presentation of homes for sale are absolutely critical in this market as is the willingness to negotiate. I heard a story today of a seller who turned away a buyer over a $5,000 impasse in negotiations. Shortly thereafter, the seller had a change of heart but the buyer had moved on. Offers from qualified buyers are worth their weight in gold!
More next week-------
Until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 8.14.2007
Hello Everyone,
Marin County did not experience a big change in inventory or percentage in contract of either SFR's or Condo's in the past week but sales activity in both markets was down significantly from the same period last year. 47 Single Family Residences were sold during the week in 2006 vs. 24 this year. The figures for Condo's are 14 in 2006 vs. 9 this year.
It is not clear whether this is a result of August vacations, the current mortgage "crunch", or just a blip on the radar screen. We will have to wait and see.
The sub-prime mortgage "crisis" has caused a lack of demand for mortgage-backed securities in the financial markets. A number of lenders are cutting back on non-conforming loans or placing much more stringent conditions and higher interest rates on those loans. Some of the lenders who are still taking such loans are backed up and not getting out documents on time, resulting in instances of delayed closings. In addition, my conversations with title officers and mortgage brokers give me the impression that 2nd loans are getting to be about as scarce as the proverbial hens' teeth.
As we reported earlier, American Home Mortgage, reportedly the 10th largest lender, recently filed for bankruptcy. My information is that, nationally, about 100 lenders have closed their doors in the last year.
What this means to buyers and sellers.
Sellers need to be aware that lenders are a critical part of the sales transaction. Buyers who are pre-approved with substantial down payments are worth their weight in gold in these times. Negotiating in good faith with qualified buyers is a prudent thing to do, as is recognizing when the time is right to reduce the offering price of a home that is not receiving much market attention. The current mortgage situation will most likely continue to attenuate the pool of qualified buyers for the near future.
Buyers are wise to utilize the services of a reputable local lender or broker with a proven track record in Marin County. They should ensure that they are pre-approved and they should check frequently on the prevailing interest rates to make sure that the amount they qualify for has not changed substantially.
Experienced REALTORS can help ensure that transactions remain on track and on time. By keeping abreast of the transaction details, they can provide early warnings about potential problems and help preserve options for buyers and sellers. Based on their experience and expertise, REALTORS can be sources of useful information and advice. The current lending situation will work itself out in time, but until then successful buyers and sellers will benefit greatly from timely information and prudent action.
more next week----
Until then best wishes,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Marin County did not experience a big change in inventory or percentage in contract of either SFR's or Condo's in the past week but sales activity in both markets was down significantly from the same period last year. 47 Single Family Residences were sold during the week in 2006 vs. 24 this year. The figures for Condo's are 14 in 2006 vs. 9 this year.
It is not clear whether this is a result of August vacations, the current mortgage "crunch", or just a blip on the radar screen. We will have to wait and see.
The sub-prime mortgage "crisis" has caused a lack of demand for mortgage-backed securities in the financial markets. A number of lenders are cutting back on non-conforming loans or placing much more stringent conditions and higher interest rates on those loans. Some of the lenders who are still taking such loans are backed up and not getting out documents on time, resulting in instances of delayed closings. In addition, my conversations with title officers and mortgage brokers give me the impression that 2nd loans are getting to be about as scarce as the proverbial hens' teeth.
As we reported earlier, American Home Mortgage, reportedly the 10th largest lender, recently filed for bankruptcy. My information is that, nationally, about 100 lenders have closed their doors in the last year.
What this means to buyers and sellers.
Sellers need to be aware that lenders are a critical part of the sales transaction. Buyers who are pre-approved with substantial down payments are worth their weight in gold in these times. Negotiating in good faith with qualified buyers is a prudent thing to do, as is recognizing when the time is right to reduce the offering price of a home that is not receiving much market attention. The current mortgage situation will most likely continue to attenuate the pool of qualified buyers for the near future.
Buyers are wise to utilize the services of a reputable local lender or broker with a proven track record in Marin County. They should ensure that they are pre-approved and they should check frequently on the prevailing interest rates to make sure that the amount they qualify for has not changed substantially.
Experienced REALTORS can help ensure that transactions remain on track and on time. By keeping abreast of the transaction details, they can provide early warnings about potential problems and help preserve options for buyers and sellers. Based on their experience and expertise, REALTORS can be sources of useful information and advice. The current lending situation will work itself out in time, but until then successful buyers and sellers will benefit greatly from timely information and prudent action.
more next week----
Until then best wishes,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Thursday, August 9, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 08.07.2007
Hello Everyone,
The monthly city-by-city report is out this week (see website link below for all spreadsheet info), showing mixed results--some cities/towns up, some down. Mill Valley's percentage in contract slipped a bit, but still quite strong at over 35% in contract-- a strong sellers' market. Corte Madera red hot at 44.8% in contract, up from last month's 41%--- nearing a very strong sellers' market. San Rafael slipped to 20% in contract, still a buyers' market, and Novato down again to 15.6% in contract, nearing a strong buyers' market.
Single Family Residences (SFR) down again, now a definite buyers' market when taken as a whole at 23% in contract. Even the under $1million segment in buyers' market territory at 24.5% in contract. I am continuing to call it balanced because of underlying strength. There were 231 new SFR listings last month (July) and there were 286 accepted offers, so inventory is down a bit overall, augmenting market strength. Notwithstanding this, areas with softer demand present opportunities for buyers. They are recognizing this and deals are closing.
Condo's actually saw an increase in percentage in contract in every price segment.
As with SFR's, accepted offers exceeded new listings (74/70). Condo's in general still a buyers' market with the notable exception of the $1-2 million dollar segment. This segment is small, but 5 out of 12 listings (58%) are in contract. Other than that, most condo's a buyers' opportunity.
Advice:
Buyers, lots of opportunity out there, but remember that the prime properties still often receive multiple offers and sell over asking price. A good REALTOR can introduce you to homes in great areas that are receiving less attention and may be good bargains.
Sellers, if you have a prime property, congratulations. A good REALTOR can help you with pricing, preparation, and presentation and you'll be on your way. If your area is experiencing less action, your REALTOR can help you with marketing strategies that have been shown to work in this type of market. Remember, proper pricing is crucial. Overpriced homes often sit on the market and ultimately sell for less than comparable homes that are well-priced for the market.
More next week---
Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheet info, please go to http://www.fredanlyan.com
The monthly city-by-city report is out this week (see website link below for all spreadsheet info), showing mixed results--some cities/towns up, some down. Mill Valley's percentage in contract slipped a bit, but still quite strong at over 35% in contract-- a strong sellers' market. Corte Madera red hot at 44.8% in contract, up from last month's 41%--- nearing a very strong sellers' market. San Rafael slipped to 20% in contract, still a buyers' market, and Novato down again to 15.6% in contract, nearing a strong buyers' market.
Single Family Residences (SFR) down again, now a definite buyers' market when taken as a whole at 23% in contract. Even the under $1million segment in buyers' market territory at 24.5% in contract. I am continuing to call it balanced because of underlying strength. There were 231 new SFR listings last month (July) and there were 286 accepted offers, so inventory is down a bit overall, augmenting market strength. Notwithstanding this, areas with softer demand present opportunities for buyers. They are recognizing this and deals are closing.
Condo's actually saw an increase in percentage in contract in every price segment.
As with SFR's, accepted offers exceeded new listings (74/70). Condo's in general still a buyers' market with the notable exception of the $1-2 million dollar segment. This segment is small, but 5 out of 12 listings (58%) are in contract. Other than that, most condo's a buyers' opportunity.
Advice:
Buyers, lots of opportunity out there, but remember that the prime properties still often receive multiple offers and sell over asking price. A good REALTOR can introduce you to homes in great areas that are receiving less attention and may be good bargains.
Sellers, if you have a prime property, congratulations. A good REALTOR can help you with pricing, preparation, and presentation and you'll be on your way. If your area is experiencing less action, your REALTOR can help you with marketing strategies that have been shown to work in this type of market. Remember, proper pricing is crucial. Overpriced homes often sit on the market and ultimately sell for less than comparable homes that are well-priced for the market.
More next week---
Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheet info, please go to http://www.fredanlyan.com
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Marin County Real Estate Statistics 7.31.2007. The Anlyan Report
Hello Everyone,
The market remains on the same track as last week with minor changes. The most significant change is that the $2-$3 million Single Family Residence segment, though still a buyers' market, has continued to show strength by rising to 23% in contract, just south of a balanced market. Improvement in the over-$3million SFR market as well.
Big news this week is that mortgage lenders continue to be under duress. American Home Mortgage, the nation's 10th largest lender announced they are unable to fund their loans, and word has it they are closing their doors. Recent bad news in the mortgage industry has made it more difficult for lenders to package and sell their loans in the money markets and has forced them to sell at lower prices.
This is important to buyers and sellers because it makes it more difficult and more expensive for borrowers to obtain the funds they need to purchase property. Lending and credit standards are tightening. No-doc loans are drying up. Borrowers in many cases are forced to qualify at the fully-amortized rate rather than the introductory "teaser" rate.
Borrowers should take care to find a reliable locally based lender and be sure they are actually pre-approved. This means that the lender or the broker has verified credit and assets, reviewed the loan application, and, often, run it by an underwriter.
Sellers. This is a time when the knowledge and services of an experienced REALTOR are invaluable. The agent can follow up on the buyer's pre-approval, help the seller set appropriate contractual standards for loan approval and contingency removal, closely follow and track the process. This helps avoid unpleasant surprises just before closing when a shaky lender shuts its doors, leaving both seller and buyer in the lurch.
More next week---- (including the monthly City-By-City Report)
Until then---
Best wishes,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
The market remains on the same track as last week with minor changes. The most significant change is that the $2-$3 million Single Family Residence segment, though still a buyers' market, has continued to show strength by rising to 23% in contract, just south of a balanced market. Improvement in the over-$3million SFR market as well.
Big news this week is that mortgage lenders continue to be under duress. American Home Mortgage, the nation's 10th largest lender announced they are unable to fund their loans, and word has it they are closing their doors. Recent bad news in the mortgage industry has made it more difficult for lenders to package and sell their loans in the money markets and has forced them to sell at lower prices.
This is important to buyers and sellers because it makes it more difficult and more expensive for borrowers to obtain the funds they need to purchase property. Lending and credit standards are tightening. No-doc loans are drying up. Borrowers in many cases are forced to qualify at the fully-amortized rate rather than the introductory "teaser" rate.
Borrowers should take care to find a reliable locally based lender and be sure they are actually pre-approved. This means that the lender or the broker has verified credit and assets, reviewed the loan application, and, often, run it by an underwriter.
Sellers. This is a time when the knowledge and services of an experienced REALTOR are invaluable. The agent can follow up on the buyer's pre-approval, help the seller set appropriate contractual standards for loan approval and contingency removal, closely follow and track the process. This helps avoid unpleasant surprises just before closing when a shaky lender shuts its doors, leaving both seller and buyer in the lurch.
More next week---- (including the monthly City-By-City Report)
Until then---
Best wishes,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
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