Hello Everyone,
In spite of a loss on Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week above 11,000, largely based on speculation the the Fed will step in soon with a major injection of cash in the form of asset purchases, possibly as much as $500 billion.
Local Marin real estate market a bit sluggish for the period, with buyers wary and many sellers unwilling to list their homes at or near prevailing market prices.
Inventory of Marin County single family residences (SFR) actually went down 35 units to 1265 since our last report. YTD units sold still ahead of the same date last year. 1429 SFR's sold as of 10/12 compared to 1194 at the same time in '09, or up 19.7%. This roughly the same as we saw on October 2, representing a pause from several months of steady erosion since the buyer tax credits ended last spring. Overall percentage in contract was up slightly, from 23.17 to 24.58%, tantalizingly close to the "magic" number of 25% that signals a "balanced" market. Homes under $1million also up at 30.47% in contract vs. 29.63% at last report. Upper price segments, $1-2 million and $2-3 million up slightly as well, bucking the recent trend. Homes over 3 million still stubbornly stuck, with only 7.41% in contract compared to 8.7% at last report. That equates to only 8 homes in contract our of 108 currently listed on the Marin county MLS for that price range. Forward-thinking buyers who are well qualified or have cash can pick up tremendous bargains on these upper-end propertied. Like everything else, this situation will eventually change- but for the moment, many luxury homes in Marin County could be called "The Deal of the Century"!
Condo inventory relatively stable, at 364 units on October 13 vs. 362 on October 2. YTD unit sales slipped below the same date last year at 370 on October 12 compared to the year-ago figure of 378, or down 2%. Percentage in contract down slightly from 31.2 to 30.4%. Average YTD sold price of $402,306 on October 12 up from last year at the same time when it was $373,175. This is not necessarily all attributable to price appreciation as much depends on the specific mix of units being sold. Days on Market at 111 vs. 103 last year at the same time.
Pricing a critical element in the curent Marin County real estate market. Smart, successful sellers and their agents search current comparable sales and set prices accordingly. Then they prepare the property carefully and present it in the best possible light, with appropriate marketing. They are prepared to negotiate, and they know that no amount of marketing will sell an overpriced listing in the current environment. Buyers spend a lot of time on Trulia, Redfin, Zillow, and other sites. They have done their homework and they know values. Sellers benefit from the assistance of professional local REALTORS who know neighborhood values.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 18, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.3.10
Hello Everyone,
According to a Wall Street Journal article dated October 1, "U.S. stocks kicked off the fourth quarter on a positive note, rising modestly even as a string of economic reports, including key manufacturing data, yielded conflicting signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 42 points, or 0.4%, at 10830. But the blue-chip index fell 0.3% for the week and snapped its four-week winning streak. " The article went on to state "Friday's gains came after the Dow surged 7.7% last month -- its best September performance since 1939".
Read the full article at http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101001-712081.html
More good news arrived in my inbox Friday in the form of an email from a colleague with an article by Forbes editor Robert Lenzner. The piece reported that billionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson recently "told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold." and stated that this was the best time in 50 years to buy homes. The article quoted Paulson as recommending "“If you don’t own a home buy one,” ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Refreshing, upbeat real estate predictions from someone who has a pretty good track record---- in his league they keep score with dollars, and he is way ahead! Read the article at
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2010/09/27/john-paulson-sell-bonds-buy-stocks-double-digit-inflation-coming/
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows showed a decline in percentage in contract and 6 showed an increase. Winners included Corte Madera at 49% in contract, followed by Greenbrae at 42.5%. Fairfax showing the best gain, going from 7.89% last month to 29% on October 2. Ross had the weakest showing with only 2 of 21 listed homes in contract, or 9.5%.
SFR's and Condo's showed slight gains in percentage in contract in all price ranges. Some encouraging increases in the upper end activity with SFR's above $3million going from 5% to 8.7% in contract and condo's in the $1million to $1.99 million category going from 5.5% to 11% in contract since the beginning of September. CB MarketQuest showing some very encouraging statistics with 268 accepted offers on Single Family Residences during the month compared to 146 in Sept of last year and 143 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 25.6% during the month compared to 11.6% and 12.7% in September for the previous two years. Condo's showed a similar trend with 77 accepted offers in September compared to 52 in Sept 2009 and 58 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 28.3% at the end of September compared to the year-ago figure of 16.5% and 15.5% in Sept., 2008. At the same time, though still ahead of 2009, the substantial YTD sales gains of the first part of the year continue to erode. SFR YTD units sold as of 9/28 were 1356 compared to 1130 at the same time last year. The 226 unit difference represents a 20% increase. Condo YTD unit sales of 354 narrowly squeak ahead of last year's 347 at the same time with a meager 2% increase. The question is, will the new sales activity be enough to reverse this downward trend?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
According to a Wall Street Journal article dated October 1, "U.S. stocks kicked off the fourth quarter on a positive note, rising modestly even as a string of economic reports, including key manufacturing data, yielded conflicting signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 42 points, or 0.4%, at 10830. But the blue-chip index fell 0.3% for the week and snapped its four-week winning streak. " The article went on to state "Friday's gains came after the Dow surged 7.7% last month -- its best September performance since 1939".
Read the full article at http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101001-712081.html
More good news arrived in my inbox Friday in the form of an email from a colleague with an article by Forbes editor Robert Lenzner. The piece reported that billionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson recently "told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold." and stated that this was the best time in 50 years to buy homes. The article quoted Paulson as recommending "“If you don’t own a home buy one,” ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Refreshing, upbeat real estate predictions from someone who has a pretty good track record---- in his league they keep score with dollars, and he is way ahead! Read the article at
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2010/09/27/john-paulson-sell-bonds-buy-stocks-double-digit-inflation-coming/
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows showed a decline in percentage in contract and 6 showed an increase. Winners included Corte Madera at 49% in contract, followed by Greenbrae at 42.5%. Fairfax showing the best gain, going from 7.89% last month to 29% on October 2. Ross had the weakest showing with only 2 of 21 listed homes in contract, or 9.5%.
SFR's and Condo's showed slight gains in percentage in contract in all price ranges. Some encouraging increases in the upper end activity with SFR's above $3million going from 5% to 8.7% in contract and condo's in the $1million to $1.99 million category going from 5.5% to 11% in contract since the beginning of September. CB MarketQuest showing some very encouraging statistics with 268 accepted offers on Single Family Residences during the month compared to 146 in Sept of last year and 143 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 25.6% during the month compared to 11.6% and 12.7% in September for the previous two years. Condo's showed a similar trend with 77 accepted offers in September compared to 52 in Sept 2009 and 58 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 28.3% at the end of September compared to the year-ago figure of 16.5% and 15.5% in Sept., 2008. At the same time, though still ahead of 2009, the substantial YTD sales gains of the first part of the year continue to erode. SFR YTD units sold as of 9/28 were 1356 compared to 1130 at the same time last year. The 226 unit difference represents a 20% increase. Condo YTD unit sales of 354 narrowly squeak ahead of last year's 347 at the same time with a meager 2% increase. The question is, will the new sales activity be enough to reverse this downward trend?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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