Hello Everyone,
We are still in a very active real estate market, even though we have entered the traditionally slower holiday season. A snapshot of our current market might read something like this: "Inventory low; percentage in contract, relatively high; prices down from the same time last year, but up slightly from October. Frustrated buyers snapping up good new listings as soon as they come on the market."
A December 14 report from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service confirms the above characterization of the market, and adds that distressed properties continued to make up about 47% of all home sales in the Bay Area in November, a number it says is up slightly from 45.2% in October, and 46.7% a year ago. According to the article, investors purchased over 22% of Bay Area real estate in November, and over 27% of all sales appeared to have been for cash. For some time, we have been noting this trend among investors and we think it is worth repeating. Read the full text of the article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111214.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending December 13, there were 795 single family homes listed on the Marin MLS. 303 of them, or 38.11% were in contract. In the under-$1million range, it was 48.25%;
$1million to $2million, 26.32%; $2million to $3million, 14%; and $3million-up at 9.52%. Of these, only the $2-3million range constituted a drop---- it was 17.86% at last report. But with only 50 listings in the segment, 2 or 3 homes can make this kind of difference so probably not statistically significant. What is significant is that homes in the over-$2million range still represent an incredible value for those who want and can afford them. YTD SFR's sold as of 12.13.11 at 1816 vs. 1744 the same time last year, an increase of 4.1%. Days on Market (DOM) at 114 vs. 111 last year, and average sold price at $996,650 compared to $1,031,860 at the same time in 2010.
Condo's
On December 13, there were 266 condominiums listed on MLS in Marin County, and 123 of them, or 46.24% were in contract. Even though that represents a 3 point drop from last report, it is an impressively high number. In the under-$1million segment (all but 9 units), the percentage in contract was 47.47%. For condo's over 1 million, only 1 of 9 listed units was in contract, or 11%. YTD condo sales as of 12.13 were 547, compared to the year-ago figure of 454, representing an increase of 20%. DOM were up from 138 last year at this time, to 145, and average sold price was $374, 475, down from the comparable 2010 figure of $396,894. Some buyers have been getting very good deals on condo's that they would not have been able to afford just a few years ago. They are taking advantage of this window of opportunity to get a foothold in the Marin County real estate market. Some of these units are in attractive developments and require only cosmetic repairs. Rewards in this market are going to those who recognize value and are willing to act.
More next time. Until then, wishing you all the best for the Holidays and the New Year ahead,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
The next report will be in January
Monday, December 19, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.4.11
Hello Everyone,
Something is afoot! Or is it? Hard to tell anymore. Here's the evidence. You can decide for yourselves!
Tons of open escrows. Tons of closed escrows too. Low inventory of homes for sale. Much lower than last November or November of 2009.
City-by-City Report, out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 towns and cities covered increased, 2 remained virtually unchanged, and 3 decreased. Novato on top again, extending its lead, with 51.98% of listed units in contract on December 1. San Anselmo close behind at 50%, and Greenbrae third at 45%. Belvedere holding down the floor, with only 1 of 27 listed homes in contract, or 3.7%. Buyers with cash and a desire to live in Belvedere might do well to grab a local REALTOR and go shopping.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
SFR's overall at 36% in contract, up from 33% at last report. Homes under $1million up again, at 44.7% in contract compared to 42.4% last time. Homes in the $1million-$2million range also showed gains, going from 22% to 26.3% in contract over the two week period. $2million-$3million dollar range still struggling, and down over 2 points at 17.8% from last report's 20%. Still an improvement from several weeks ago when it was in the 12-16% range. Homes in the $3million and up range at 8.22% in contract, up modestly from 5.06% at last report. Units sold, YTD, at 1752, up 5.1% from this time last year (1667), but average SFR sold price at $997,404 compared to $1,039,445 a year ago. About half of that estimated to be price attrition, with the other half attributable to market mix. Average Days on Market for sold listings at 114, only slightly more than the year-ago figure of 111. Market Action Report, also out this week shows SFR Months Supply of Inventory in the County at 3.5 months- a very low number that compares to a bit over 6 months in each of the last two years. Inventory of homes for sale at 521 on 11.30.11 (vs. over 900 in November of 2010 per CB MarketQuest) also the lowest in over 24 months covered by the charts (inventory numbers on attached reports don't always directly compare to each other due to different methods of classifying homes in varying stages of the sales process).
Condominiums
Condo's overall at 49.66% in contract as of November 29, with condo's priced at under $1million hitting 50.53%. Year-to-date, 509 Condo units had sold as of Nov 29, compared to 437 a year ago, representing a 16.5% increase. Average sold price of $375,462 compares to the 2010 YTD figure of $400,231, while average DOM for sold listings was at 146 on Nov 29, compared to 136 at the same time last year. MSI for condo's even lower than for SFR's, at a 3.1 months. Compares to 7.1 last November, and 6.1 in Nov of 2009. (Please see notes above, under Single Family Residences, as they also apply to condo statistics)
Global economic turmoil continues to keep buyers on edge. Dramatic stock market fluctuations follow daily news of Euro crisis. One day's euphoria and market run-up quickly displaced by dysphoric programmed selling a day or so later. Fortunately the effect on our real estate market is largely peripheral. Regular folks are buying homes to live in and are getting great deals. A lot of people seem to be tired of living in the shadow of what might happen to the economy and are getting on with their lives. Quality homes placed on the market at reasonable prices are selling quickly and not infrequently with multiple offers. Want to know what your home is worth? Call a local REALTOR who knows your market.
More next time.
Until then, best Holiday wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Something is afoot! Or is it? Hard to tell anymore. Here's the evidence. You can decide for yourselves!
Tons of open escrows. Tons of closed escrows too. Low inventory of homes for sale. Much lower than last November or November of 2009.
City-by-City Report, out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 towns and cities covered increased, 2 remained virtually unchanged, and 3 decreased. Novato on top again, extending its lead, with 51.98% of listed units in contract on December 1. San Anselmo close behind at 50%, and Greenbrae third at 45%. Belvedere holding down the floor, with only 1 of 27 listed homes in contract, or 3.7%. Buyers with cash and a desire to live in Belvedere might do well to grab a local REALTOR and go shopping.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
SFR's overall at 36% in contract, up from 33% at last report. Homes under $1million up again, at 44.7% in contract compared to 42.4% last time. Homes in the $1million-$2million range also showed gains, going from 22% to 26.3% in contract over the two week period. $2million-$3million dollar range still struggling, and down over 2 points at 17.8% from last report's 20%. Still an improvement from several weeks ago when it was in the 12-16% range. Homes in the $3million and up range at 8.22% in contract, up modestly from 5.06% at last report. Units sold, YTD, at 1752, up 5.1% from this time last year (1667), but average SFR sold price at $997,404 compared to $1,039,445 a year ago. About half of that estimated to be price attrition, with the other half attributable to market mix. Average Days on Market for sold listings at 114, only slightly more than the year-ago figure of 111. Market Action Report, also out this week shows SFR Months Supply of Inventory in the County at 3.5 months- a very low number that compares to a bit over 6 months in each of the last two years. Inventory of homes for sale at 521 on 11.30.11 (vs. over 900 in November of 2010 per CB MarketQuest) also the lowest in over 24 months covered by the charts (inventory numbers on attached reports don't always directly compare to each other due to different methods of classifying homes in varying stages of the sales process).
Condominiums
Condo's overall at 49.66% in contract as of November 29, with condo's priced at under $1million hitting 50.53%. Year-to-date, 509 Condo units had sold as of Nov 29, compared to 437 a year ago, representing a 16.5% increase. Average sold price of $375,462 compares to the 2010 YTD figure of $400,231, while average DOM for sold listings was at 146 on Nov 29, compared to 136 at the same time last year. MSI for condo's even lower than for SFR's, at a 3.1 months. Compares to 7.1 last November, and 6.1 in Nov of 2009. (Please see notes above, under Single Family Residences, as they also apply to condo statistics)
Global economic turmoil continues to keep buyers on edge. Dramatic stock market fluctuations follow daily news of Euro crisis. One day's euphoria and market run-up quickly displaced by dysphoric programmed selling a day or so later. Fortunately the effect on our real estate market is largely peripheral. Regular folks are buying homes to live in and are getting great deals. A lot of people seem to be tired of living in the shadow of what might happen to the economy and are getting on with their lives. Quality homes placed on the market at reasonable prices are selling quickly and not infrequently with multiple offers. Want to know what your home is worth? Call a local REALTOR who knows your market.
More next time.
Until then, best Holiday wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
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