Hello Everyone,
Today, Friday, February 20, The Marin IJ front page screamed "HOME PRICES IN MARIN DROP 24% IN A YEAR".
Data Quick Information Services, the La Jolla-based real estate information company, was quoted in the article as a major information source. The Data Quick website
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090219.aspx
features an article with some of the quoted information. It says, in part:
"The median has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 14 consecutive months. Its dramatic plunge is partially the result of the regional decline in home values. But the decline also reflects a shift toward more sales in the less-expensive inland markets; slower high-end sales; and buyers' preference for lower-priced foreclosures" (emphasis added). In other words, more low-end homes are selling, affecting the market mix and thus the average and median prices so that not all of the drop in prices is attributable to a loss of value.
According to Wikipedia, Mark Twain, quoting Benjamin Disraeli said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.", a reference to "the persuasive power of numbers , the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments----------"
The headline, while not technically untrue, presents an incomplete, limited, and misleading picture of the Marin County real estate market. Later, the body of the article backtracks, stating "January's decline was predominately due to the 40 condo sales with a median price of $246,000".
First, one month does not necessarily characterize the market. Second, the County does not consist of one uniform real estate market. The real estate market in each town or city has its own unique characteristics. Novato and San Rafael have experienced significant declines, particularly in the condominium market, while other towns and cities have fared significantly better. For combined Single Family and Condo results by city 1965 through 2008 email Fred at fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for free report.
As of February 17, there were 850 Single Family Residences listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. 121 of those, or slightly over 21%, were in contract. Homes under $1million doing much better, with 144 of 470 listed homes, or over 30% in contract. High-end homes, $1million and up at between 5.8% and 11.8% in contract, depending on price range making them a great target for well-heeled buyers looking for bargains. 96 SFR's sold YTD vs. 132 at the same time last year, down 27%. And yes, the average sold price is down from 08's $1,373,497 to $852,692, but remember, market-mix is a very significant portion of this drop. It does not mean last year's $1.4million home is this year's $850k home.
Condo's unit sales volume up about 70% YTD over last year at 48 vs. 08's tally of 20. And for the specific units that sold, the average sales price was $287,450 vs. last year's $641,345. Are condo's worth less than half of what they were worth last year? In a word, "no". And out of the 274 condo's currently on the Marin MLS for under $1million, 88 of them, or almost 32%, are in contract.
Have we reached a market bottom in Marin? The crystal ball is hazy. Ask again later, and more will be revealed. Investors are actively in the market, and some properties garner multiple offers, over asking price. Folks who need a place to live are still buying homes and getting great interest rates. First-time buyers are doing well with low prices and advantageous loans, especially the low-down-payment FHA loans.
Let's watch and see what happens.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Friday, February 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.06.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows most Marin County towns and cities percentage in contract down since last month's report. Sausalito at the bottom with only 2 of 39 listed properties in contract as of February 2, or 5.13%. Exceptions include San Rafael and Novato at the top of the list with 28 and 32 percent of properties in contract, respectively. Kentfield, San Anselmo and Fairfax also posted modest increases. Inventory of Single Family Residences up from 754 to 791. 153, or 19.34% of those in contract. In the under-$1million market, 122 of 433 homes in contract, or 28%. Homes above $1million a more difficult market due to new underwriting and appraisal standards. $1million to $2million range at 11.3% in contract but $2-$3million segment at only 3.75% in contract. Of 66 homes currently listed at $3million and above, only 4 in contract on February 2, or 6%. High-end buyers with cash in a great position to make deals while many high-end would-be sellers choosing to wait out an improvement in the market. Real estate analyst Carol Rodoni, in a presentation this week to Marin County Coldwell Banker agents, said that current market conditions in California may continue through 2009 and into 2010 or even 2011 in some areas. Year to date units sold at 68 vs. 89 at this time last year, down 23%. Average sold price at $882,069 vs. $1,395,098 in '08 at the same time (price decrease a function of market mix as well as declines in value). Days on market for YTD sold properties now 123, up 19 from last year's comparable figure.
Marin County Condo market continued to show strong sales with 27.8% of all currently listed condo's in contract. The under-$1million condo market at 29.32% in contract while the over $1million segment sits with 14 listed properties and none in contract. YTD condo sales at 32 units to February 2 vs. 19 units at the same time last year. Average sale price $276,769 vs. $688,863 last year. This reduction a combination of decline in value as well as market mix, meaning that lower-end properties are selling. Average Days on market for YTD sold properties at 112 vs. 90 for the same time in '08.
Current U.S. economy still awaits an injection of confidence while new administration wrangles with Congress over what form the stimulus package will take. Stocks rallied today (Feb 6) on hopes the program would take shape soon and be voted into law.
More next time----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows most Marin County towns and cities percentage in contract down since last month's report. Sausalito at the bottom with only 2 of 39 listed properties in contract as of February 2, or 5.13%. Exceptions include San Rafael and Novato at the top of the list with 28 and 32 percent of properties in contract, respectively. Kentfield, San Anselmo and Fairfax also posted modest increases. Inventory of Single Family Residences up from 754 to 791. 153, or 19.34% of those in contract. In the under-$1million market, 122 of 433 homes in contract, or 28%. Homes above $1million a more difficult market due to new underwriting and appraisal standards. $1million to $2million range at 11.3% in contract but $2-$3million segment at only 3.75% in contract. Of 66 homes currently listed at $3million and above, only 4 in contract on February 2, or 6%. High-end buyers with cash in a great position to make deals while many high-end would-be sellers choosing to wait out an improvement in the market. Real estate analyst Carol Rodoni, in a presentation this week to Marin County Coldwell Banker agents, said that current market conditions in California may continue through 2009 and into 2010 or even 2011 in some areas. Year to date units sold at 68 vs. 89 at this time last year, down 23%. Average sold price at $882,069 vs. $1,395,098 in '08 at the same time (price decrease a function of market mix as well as declines in value). Days on market for YTD sold properties now 123, up 19 from last year's comparable figure.
Marin County Condo market continued to show strong sales with 27.8% of all currently listed condo's in contract. The under-$1million condo market at 29.32% in contract while the over $1million segment sits with 14 listed properties and none in contract. YTD condo sales at 32 units to February 2 vs. 19 units at the same time last year. Average sale price $276,769 vs. $688,863 last year. This reduction a combination of decline in value as well as market mix, meaning that lower-end properties are selling. Average Days on market for YTD sold properties at 112 vs. 90 for the same time in '08.
Current U.S. economy still awaits an injection of confidence while new administration wrangles with Congress over what form the stimulus package will take. Stocks rallied today (Feb 6) on hopes the program would take shape soon and be voted into law.
More next time----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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