Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
It is good to be back in Marin, where I have spent the week talking with agents and lenders about their opinions on the current state of the local real estate market. "Make sure you tell them about the multiple offers" excalimed one prominent agent referring to the three offers and quick close on a recent listing. A leading Marin County mortgage broker assured me that they have never failed to to obtain a loan for a well-qualified client. The lenders are just making them jump through a few more hoops now. Agents tell me the market is active, and the REO's are selling as lenders do what is necessary to get these non-performing "assets" off their books. But they also tell me many buyers are circling, waiting to get the perfect deal, or waiting for the market to go lower. From the point of view of an agent, it is surprising that every bit of inventory is not flying off the shelf. So rarely is it that prices in Marin go down, that this seems an opportunity not to be missed. But last week, the gap in YTD unit sales between 2007 and 2008 increased again for both condo's and SFR's (both down 37%). YTD average sold prices on condo's are down about 6.8% vs this time in 2007, and average ytd sold prices for SFR's down about 1.9%. My economics professor told me that the market is always right, and I can't argue with that. But there is such a thing as waiting too long. We will not recognize the bottom of the market until we have passed it. Smart buyers and investors try to find good deals rather than market bottoms, and there are certainly many good deals out there now. Many sellers of homes on the market over 30 days have not reduced their asking prices but would be willing to negotiate on reasonable offers from qualified buyers.
Inventory is up again for both SFR's and condo's, and percentage in contract continues to advance as well. SFR's in the $1million to $1.99 million range finally made it to "balanced" this week, at slightly over 25% in contract. SFR percentages in contract all increased, with the exception of the $2million to $2.99 million range, which dropped less than 1 point. Condominium percentage in contract also up, except in the $1million to $1.99 million range, and that reduction hinged on the sale of only one unit.
Tremendous opportunity in this market. Ask your real estate professional for the city by city average sold prices back to 1965, and see for yourself!
More next week.
Until then, good luck and best wishes,
Fred
Monday, April 28, 2008
Saturday, April 19, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.15.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The writer continues to travel on the east coast, and will return to California on Monday. Beautiful spring weather here, and large, newer homes in good areas sell for $300-500K. Some of these homes would go for up to $3,000,000 in selected areas of Marin County.
Spring sellers of Single Family Residences and Condominiums in Marin County continue to drive normal seasonal increase in inventory again this week. Listings up in all price ranges again, and percentage in contract up in nearly all categories as well. The only exception is SFR's over $3million--- still a strong buyers' market. Everything else a buyers' market and steadily moving towards balanced. Condo's continue to narrow the gap between this year's ytd unit sales and last, now down 33.8% vs. last week's -37%. Days on market 94 now vs. 79 last year, average list price $601,897 vs 2007's $639,519, and average sold price currently $587,409 compared to $630,520 a year ago. SFR's still sluggish compared to last year, with ytd unit sales down 34.9%. There was a typo on last week's report showing -39%. The figure should have been -34.3%, so this week's number reprents a slight additional slippage. Average SFR list price is currently $1,396,228 vs $1,366,502 last year and average sold $ are $1,340,273 vs. $1,335,321 in 2007 so, although unit sales are down, prices are up slightly. Days on market are 85 vs 82 at this time last year. Marin housing market still active, but very sensitive to value and price, so pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical. Evidencing this is the fact there were 53 price reductions on SFR's and 23 on condo's in the April 2-8 period.
Lots of stories in the news about well qualified buyers having trouble getting loans, and how this impedes the real estate market. It is critical for buyers to establish a relationship with a reputable, experienced lender or broker very early on in the process of buying a home. Buyers should be pre-approved, meaning that their application has been approved by an underwriter and is subject only to specific items such as appraisal, etc., per the lender's specifications. Sellers and their agents should include a careful consideration of the potential buyer's financial/loan/lender status in their evaluation of offers on their properties. This will help transactions to proceed smoothly and speedily.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The writer continues to travel on the east coast, and will return to California on Monday. Beautiful spring weather here, and large, newer homes in good areas sell for $300-500K. Some of these homes would go for up to $3,000,000 in selected areas of Marin County.
Spring sellers of Single Family Residences and Condominiums in Marin County continue to drive normal seasonal increase in inventory again this week. Listings up in all price ranges again, and percentage in contract up in nearly all categories as well. The only exception is SFR's over $3million--- still a strong buyers' market. Everything else a buyers' market and steadily moving towards balanced. Condo's continue to narrow the gap between this year's ytd unit sales and last, now down 33.8% vs. last week's -37%. Days on market 94 now vs. 79 last year, average list price $601,897 vs 2007's $639,519, and average sold price currently $587,409 compared to $630,520 a year ago. SFR's still sluggish compared to last year, with ytd unit sales down 34.9%. There was a typo on last week's report showing -39%. The figure should have been -34.3%, so this week's number reprents a slight additional slippage. Average SFR list price is currently $1,396,228 vs $1,366,502 last year and average sold $ are $1,340,273 vs. $1,335,321 in 2007 so, although unit sales are down, prices are up slightly. Days on market are 85 vs 82 at this time last year. Marin housing market still active, but very sensitive to value and price, so pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical. Evidencing this is the fact there were 53 price reductions on SFR's and 23 on condo's in the April 2-8 period.
Lots of stories in the news about well qualified buyers having trouble getting loans, and how this impedes the real estate market. It is critical for buyers to establish a relationship with a reputable, experienced lender or broker very early on in the process of buying a home. Buyers should be pre-approved, meaning that their application has been approved by an underwriter and is subject only to specific items such as appraisal, etc., per the lender's specifications. Sellers and their agents should include a careful consideration of the potential buyer's financial/loan/lender status in their evaluation of offers on their properties. This will help transactions to proceed smoothly and speedily.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, April 6, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 4.1.2008
Hello Everyone,
Monthly city-by-city report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com ). A number of changes. 7 towns/cities percentage in contract down, and 6 up. A number of markets going from buyers' to sellers' markets and vice versa. Most extreme examples of this are Greenbrae, going from 15.7% in contract to 0%, and Fairfax, going from 40% in contract (strong sellers') to 19% (buyers"). Before giving these numbers too much credence, take a look at the number of units involved. It is usually 2 or 3, or 4 units. Many of these are small markets. More significantly, San Rafael, the second biggest market in the county, went from an inventory of 263 SFR's and Condo's to 315, and still increased its percentage in contract from 19% to 21%, a continuation of an upward trend. Novato dropped about 3 percentage points to 21.65% in contract, absorbing about a 10% increase in active listings and still doing pretty well . Both of these markets still buyers' markets, but doing much better than earlier in the year.
Some comparisons with 2007:Units sold YTD, Condos down 53%. SFRs down 35%.
Monthly comparison: (all numbers for SFR and Condo combined)
March '07 --265 March '08
Accepted offers 265 284
Accepted offers to
new listings ratio 57.5% 71.2%
Accepted offers to
inventory ratio 24.9% 27.8%
DOM 79 93
Months Supply
of inventory 4.7 8.3
Bottom line: The Marin County real estate market enjoys a lot of protection and shows many signs of trying to break out. Accepted offers are up significantly, but days on market are still longer than last year. There are excellent opportunities for buyers, but market-wise sellers are doing well too. Your local real estate professional has a finger on the pulse of the Marin marketplace and is a great source of information.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monthly city-by-city report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com ). A number of changes. 7 towns/cities percentage in contract down, and 6 up. A number of markets going from buyers' to sellers' markets and vice versa. Most extreme examples of this are Greenbrae, going from 15.7% in contract to 0%, and Fairfax, going from 40% in contract (strong sellers') to 19% (buyers"). Before giving these numbers too much credence, take a look at the number of units involved. It is usually 2 or 3, or 4 units. Many of these are small markets. More significantly, San Rafael, the second biggest market in the county, went from an inventory of 263 SFR's and Condo's to 315, and still increased its percentage in contract from 19% to 21%, a continuation of an upward trend. Novato dropped about 3 percentage points to 21.65% in contract, absorbing about a 10% increase in active listings and still doing pretty well . Both of these markets still buyers' markets, but doing much better than earlier in the year.
Some comparisons with 2007:Units sold YTD, Condos down 53%. SFRs down 35%.
Monthly comparison: (all numbers for SFR and Condo combined)
March '07 --265 March '08
Accepted offers 265 284
Accepted offers to
new listings ratio 57.5% 71.2%
Accepted offers to
inventory ratio 24.9% 27.8%
DOM 79 93
Months Supply
of inventory 4.7 8.3
Bottom line: The Marin County real estate market enjoys a lot of protection and shows many signs of trying to break out. Accepted offers are up significantly, but days on market are still longer than last year. There are excellent opportunities for buyers, but market-wise sellers are doing well too. Your local real estate professional has a finger on the pulse of the Marin marketplace and is a great source of information.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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