The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.12.10

Hello Everyone,

Going into the Holiday Season, the Marin County real estate market has definitely not settled down for a long winter's nap-- at least not yet.
November month-end statistics from Coldwell Banker MarketQuest (MQ)* show both single family and condo activity smoked recent averagees with inventory down and new sales contracts up!

Single Family Residences (SFR)
Inventory down to 845 (MQ)* units from 1,111 in October. This compares to 1,000 in Nov of 2009, and 980 in 2008. There were 214 accepted offers on SFR's this November, compared to 154 in Nov of '09 and only 89 in the same period in '08. November's accepted offers as a percentage of total SFR inventory were 25.3%, compared to 17.5% in October, 15.4% in Nov of 2009, and just 9.1% in Nov. of '08. Months supply of inventory down to 5.8 from 7.5 in October. YTD SFR sales continue to lead '09's but the pace continues to lag with 1708 units sold by 12/7 compared to the year-ago figure of 1530. This represents an increase of 11.6%, but two weeks ago, it was up 13%. As we have mentioned, this deceleration has been going on for several months now since the homebuyer tax credits expired. The good news is that with the recent encouraging sales activity, it appears that we will hold on to finish the year on the "plus" side. Properties under $1million still selling well, with 35.25% of SFR's listed on the Marin MLS in contract as of 12/7. Upper end of the market dropped back again in November with only 7.25% of properties listed at $2-$3million and 3.66% of those over $3million in contract on December 7.

Condo's

Condo inventory also down at 254 (MQ)* vs. 309 at the end of October. Compares to 281 in Nov. '09 and 306 in '08. November brought 72 accepted condo offers, 20 more than in Nov. '09 and25 above '08. Accepted offers as a percentage of inventory were 25.3, up from October's 17.5%, easily beating the Nov. '09 figure of 15.4% and Nov '08's 9.1%. Months supply of inventory dropped to 5.8 from this October's 7.5.

With numbers like this, it seems fairly clear that something is going on. The attached monthly City-by-City Report (Marin MLS)* reveals where most of the action is. Greenbrae continues to lead the pack, with 12 of 26 (46.5%) of listed properties in contract as of 11/30. Next in line is Novato, with 40.45% (125 of 309 listed properties), a very nice increase from October's 36.6%. San Rafael showing encouraging activity with an increase to 31.09% (97 of 312 listed properties) from October's 24.6%. Belvedere still stuck in last place with a drop to 10.26% from last report's 15.56%. 12/7's YTD condo sales figure of 444 units down 5.9% from last year's level of 472 at the same time. 27.5% of condo's under $1million in contract on 12/7 compared to October's 33.02%, but sales activity up (MQ) with 45 units sold in November compared to 31 in October, more or less on par with 09's November figure of 45 and '08's 47 units.

Please take a look at the relatively recent Market Action Reports for both Condo's and SFR's. I think you will find them useful and informative.

This will be the last report until the beginning of the New Year.
Until then, best wishes to one and all for an enjoyable and safe Holiday Season and a prosperous, happy, healthy, and successful the New Year.

Fred

* Percentage in contract and other figures are often inconsistent between Market Quest and MLS due to differences in the way the two systems count active listings

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Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property Specialist

Direct: (415) 464-3509
Fax: (415) 925-0962
Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com
Website: Visit My Website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com