Hello Everyone,
An October 14th article by DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service features the headline: "Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago". Chart at the bottom of the article lists Marin County as having a 10.6% increase in unit sales, comparing Sept., 2010 to Sept., 2011 results, but a 10.5% decrease in the median sales price. Article notes that Bay Area foreclosure resales were down a couple of percentage points during September, compared to the year-ago figure--- 25.6% of homes sold during the month vs. 27.5% last year. However, short sales made up about 20.1% of resales last month, compared to15.4% in September, 2010 and 15.3% in September, 2009, the article went on to say. Full text of article available at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111014.aspx
Our own MLS statistics similar to those referenced in the article, showing Single Family Residences (SFR) up in unit sales, from 1431, YTD, as of 10/1, 2010 to1487 as of 10/1/2011---a 3.9% increase. Average YTD sold price for SFR's for the date are $1,002,406, compared to $1,049,919 a year ago. Percentages will not line up directly with the DataQuick numbers because they measure different areas by slightly different yardsticks. The important thing is that the trends are the same. SFR inventory down again, to 1033 units on 10/1. 306 of those, or 29.62% were in contract, about the same as last report. Homes under $1million, though, continue to be strong performers, with 39.38% in contract. Homes in the $1million to $2million range held steady, at a little over 19% in contract, while $2million-$3million homes notched up from 12.35% in contract at last report to 15.66% this time, the highest since July.
Condominiums actually forging ahead much more strongly on sales, with 426 sold, YTD, as of October 1, compared to 371 last year, a 14.8% increase. Prices on condo's also decreased, with the average sold price for the year at $365,319 on October 1, compared to $401,599 a year ago. Condo percentage in contract keeps going up, while inventory continues to head in the opposite direction. On July 26, there were 378 active condo listings in Marin, and 135 were in contract--- about 35.7%. On October 1, the figures were 337 active listings, of which 45.1% or 152 units were in contract. Just a reminder about sales prices for both SFR's and Condo's. It is estimated that only about half of the amount of price decreases is attributable to lower values--- the other half a result of changes in "market mix", meaning homes of lesser value were coming to market.
Stock market has just finished its 3rd positive week, removing some of the fear from the forefront of people's minds, but try to remember that the future of the Marin County real estate market is not directly related to the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market. What is more important is that prices are great, and interest rates are low. For those who need a place to live, this should provide a major incentive to take the plunge.
Marin County real estate market is active, with buyers looking for what they consider to be acceptable properties, then pouncing on them, often several at a time. One home last week was rumored to have over 16 offers. Many sellers still holding off listing their homes, trying to wait out the down market. May be missing an opportunity to sell at a good price now!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. To view spreadsheets, please visit my website:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, October 14, 2011
Monday, October 3, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate. 10.3.2011
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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