Hello Everyone,
We seem to be getting the lazy summer real estate market without the lazy summer weather! On Wednesday, according to one account, the weather in San Francisco was the coldest for that day since records have been kept, beginning in the late 1800's. And, reportedly, we are having the coolest summer weather in over 40 years! Nonetheless, people are still going on vacation (hopefully to warmer places) and many have placed their real estate searches or plans to sell on temporary "hold" while they are away. This is normal summer behavior. Our Marin County Market usually comes back to life in September when everyone returns to work or school, and stays fairly active until the holidays.
The Marin real estate market for the first four months of the year was incredibly hot, with buyers racing to beat the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credits, and total units sold were far ahead of 2009. As of July 20, YTD housing units sold were still substantially ahead of the same date in 2009, with condo unit sales up 10.2% (270 vs. 245) and Single Family unit sales up 34.2% (1024 vs. 763), but these percentages have been steadily eroding since the tax credits ended. A July 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, quoted their President, John Walsh, saying "The next few months should be very interesting. We're about to see how well the housing market can fly on its own. The tax credits no doubt stole some demand form the rest of this year, and soon we'll have a better sense of just how much." He went on to talk about the current lending environment and its effect on the market: "The Bay Area market is getting a boost from super-low mortgage rates and a slightly friendlier lending environment for high-end borrowers-------- But, barring new government stimulus, the housing market will be relying very heavily on improvements in the economy. A lot will depend on how many people find jobs, or stop worrying about losing the one they have."
See full text of article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100715.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR). Marin SFR inventory was just about unchanged at 1270 units vs. 1269 at last report. Overall percentage in contract continued to decline to 23.07%. At the beginning of May, it was 30.19%. The under-$1million market is still putting in the best performance at 31.23% in contract, a sellers' market, but still 2 points lower than last report and 8 points lower than the May 11 figure of 39.5%. Homes in the $1-$2million range up slightly from15.8% in contract on July 6 to 16.44% on July 20, but these were at 20.06% on May 11! Similarly, the $2-$3million range was at 9.73% in contract vs. 18.75% on May 11, and homes in the $3million-plus range at 8.18% on July 20 vs. 15.32% on May 11.
Average list price for SFR's for YTD homes sold as of July 20 was $1,108,584 vs. $1,043,949 last year, while average sold price of $1,058,324 compared to $988,149 at the same time in '09. Remember, in order for this to be an accurate gauge of the increase/decrease in home values, we would have to have sold the exact same mix of dwellings in both years, which is obviously not the case. Days on market for YTD sold properties dropped slightly from 98 in '09 to 87 as of July 20.
Condominium inventory up marginally, with 361 units listed for sale compared to 352 at last report. 29.92% of these were in contract, compared to the July 6 level of 32.10%. On May 11, 36.69% of listed condominium properties were in contract. Average list price of a Marin County Condo for YTD properties sold was $409,167 compared to $377,659 at the same time last year, and average sold price was $398,677 vs. 09's $363,577. Average Days on Market for sold properties were 106 as of July 20, compared to the year-ago figure of 101, a slight increase. Decreasing foreclosure activity a factor in year-over-year increases in selling prices for both SFR and Condo inventory, as less distressed property hits the market.
Pricing continues to be soft, except on the most desirable properties. This, combined with mortgage rates still holding at historic lows makes it a great opportunity for buyers. Buyers at the upper end of the market continue to have a rare opportunity to purchase property at very attractive rates. Sellers still not giving away Marin County real estate, but lower prices and bargain loan rates making homes affordable to many who formerly found themselves unable to buy a home here.
More next time.
Until then, enjoy the summer!
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Sunday, July 11, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.11.10
Hello Everyone,
Better minds than ours are struggling to understand what is going on with U.S. and global economic conditions and predict the future . Sometimes feels a bit like financial fortune-telling!
On June 27, Princeton Professor of economics, Nobel prize-winner, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman penned an article titled "The Third Depression" in which he speculated that we are currently entering an extended economic trough. This, he says, is due in part to misguided attempts by legislators and officials to begin to balance budgets to avoid accumulating more debt. According to Krugman, they should instead be pursuing a much more expansive economic policy to avoid further economic contraction he says is an inevitable destination on their current course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
On July 10, Nelson Schwartz, another New York Times Columnist, wrote a column for the paper titled "Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery". According to the article, major Wall Street brokerages have added about 2,000 jobs since February in anticipation of a coming economic recovery. Schwartz postulates that the recent financial successes of banks will lead the U.S. out of recession/depression and into recovery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?th&emc=th
Reality is probably that the economy is at a tipping point and can go either way depending on events and policies in the next few months. It would seem that taking money out of the system to reduce deficits may not necessarily be beneficial at this particular point in time. We will see.
Meanwhile, Wall Street had a pretty good week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best week since July of 2009, climbing about 5%. Still a long way from its former peak, but slowly heading in the right direction though still volatile and changing directions regularly. Mortgage rates still at historical lows but buyers must be well-qualified with good income, assets, and credit scores.
"But what actually happened here in Marin County?" you may be asking, drumming your fingers on the counter. So, Ok, the local facts as we see them---------
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage-in-contract of 5 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows was up, and 6 down as of July 1. Greenbrae showed no change at slightly over 31% in contract. Corte Madera, at 35.29%, still the leader even though down substantially from last month's stellar performance of 47.73% in contract. Belvedere holding the low spot on the totem pole at only 5% in contract. Remember, many of these markets are relatively small, and a swing of a few units can have a dramatic impact on the percentage in contract number.
Single Family Homes (SFR) inventory down from 1308 to 1269 since last report. Percentage in contract down just slightly from 25.08% to 24.35% overall. Homes under $1million at 33.58% in contract, down less than half a point from last report. Homes in the $1million and up segments all showing reductions as follows:
$1million-$1.999 million down from 16.02% to 15.18%
$2million-$2.999 million down from 19,83% to 17.36%
$3million and up down from 8.40% to 7.76%
This in spite of anecdotes about high-end properties starting to move. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens next!
Average sold price of SFR's YTD at $1,054,594 vs $972,521 last year at this time. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93 vs. last year's 108 at the same time. 935 SFR's had sold as of July 6, 34% more than the 697 sold as of the same date in 2009. This percentage increase has been decelerating for a number of weeks now, since the Federal mortgage tax credits ended.
Good new is that according to CB MarketQuest, SFR accepted offers in June were 30.1% of inventory, the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. The June ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 91.8%, exceeded only (in 24 months) by December's figure of 116.3%.
Marin County Condominium inventory down slightly to 352 from 368 at last report. Overall percentage in contract also down from 33.42% to 32.10%, while condo's under $1million (all but 19 of the listings) also down from 35.16% to 33.63%. Average sold price YTD at $400,476 vs $365,807 this time last year, and DOM up slightly from 114 to 117 since June of '09. YTD condo units sold as of July 6 at 252 vs. '09 figure of 231, or up 9.1%. This also shows continued deceleration from the rushing-to-get-the-tax-break peak. Condo accepted offers as a percentage of inventory at 29.5% at the end of June, the highest in the 24 month period covered by the CB MarketQuest report. Accepted offers as a percentage of new listings, at 89% were 3rd highest in the 24 month period, behind November and December of '09. Important to remember that increasing sales prices may be an indication of the specific units sold as much as of overall price levels---- a phenomenon called "market mix".
Local offices still busy, with good numbers of open escrows, even though many buyers and sellers are taking their a summer vacation break. Traditionally, the local real estate business cools off a bit this time of year, then gets another bounce after Labor Day. Anyone's guess what will happen this year-----
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Better minds than ours are struggling to understand what is going on with U.S. and global economic conditions and predict the future . Sometimes feels a bit like financial fortune-telling!
On June 27, Princeton Professor of economics, Nobel prize-winner, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman penned an article titled "The Third Depression" in which he speculated that we are currently entering an extended economic trough. This, he says, is due in part to misguided attempts by legislators and officials to begin to balance budgets to avoid accumulating more debt. According to Krugman, they should instead be pursuing a much more expansive economic policy to avoid further economic contraction he says is an inevitable destination on their current course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
On July 10, Nelson Schwartz, another New York Times Columnist, wrote a column for the paper titled "Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery". According to the article, major Wall Street brokerages have added about 2,000 jobs since February in anticipation of a coming economic recovery. Schwartz postulates that the recent financial successes of banks will lead the U.S. out of recession/depression and into recovery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?th&emc=th
Reality is probably that the economy is at a tipping point and can go either way depending on events and policies in the next few months. It would seem that taking money out of the system to reduce deficits may not necessarily be beneficial at this particular point in time. We will see.
Meanwhile, Wall Street had a pretty good week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best week since July of 2009, climbing about 5%. Still a long way from its former peak, but slowly heading in the right direction though still volatile and changing directions regularly. Mortgage rates still at historical lows but buyers must be well-qualified with good income, assets, and credit scores.
"But what actually happened here in Marin County?" you may be asking, drumming your fingers on the counter. So, Ok, the local facts as we see them---------
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage-in-contract of 5 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows was up, and 6 down as of July 1. Greenbrae showed no change at slightly over 31% in contract. Corte Madera, at 35.29%, still the leader even though down substantially from last month's stellar performance of 47.73% in contract. Belvedere holding the low spot on the totem pole at only 5% in contract. Remember, many of these markets are relatively small, and a swing of a few units can have a dramatic impact on the percentage in contract number.
Single Family Homes (SFR) inventory down from 1308 to 1269 since last report. Percentage in contract down just slightly from 25.08% to 24.35% overall. Homes under $1million at 33.58% in contract, down less than half a point from last report. Homes in the $1million and up segments all showing reductions as follows:
$1million-$1.999 million down from 16.02% to 15.18%
$2million-$2.999 million down from 19,83% to 17.36%
$3million and up down from 8.40% to 7.76%
This in spite of anecdotes about high-end properties starting to move. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens next!
Average sold price of SFR's YTD at $1,054,594 vs $972,521 last year at this time. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93 vs. last year's 108 at the same time. 935 SFR's had sold as of July 6, 34% more than the 697 sold as of the same date in 2009. This percentage increase has been decelerating for a number of weeks now, since the Federal mortgage tax credits ended.
Good new is that according to CB MarketQuest, SFR accepted offers in June were 30.1% of inventory, the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. The June ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 91.8%, exceeded only (in 24 months) by December's figure of 116.3%.
Marin County Condominium inventory down slightly to 352 from 368 at last report. Overall percentage in contract also down from 33.42% to 32.10%, while condo's under $1million (all but 19 of the listings) also down from 35.16% to 33.63%. Average sold price YTD at $400,476 vs $365,807 this time last year, and DOM up slightly from 114 to 117 since June of '09. YTD condo units sold as of July 6 at 252 vs. '09 figure of 231, or up 9.1%. This also shows continued deceleration from the rushing-to-get-the-tax-break peak. Condo accepted offers as a percentage of inventory at 29.5% at the end of June, the highest in the 24 month period covered by the CB MarketQuest report. Accepted offers as a percentage of new listings, at 89% were 3rd highest in the 24 month period, behind November and December of '09. Important to remember that increasing sales prices may be an indication of the specific units sold as much as of overall price levels---- a phenomenon called "market mix".
Local offices still busy, with good numbers of open escrows, even though many buyers and sellers are taking their a summer vacation break. Traditionally, the local real estate business cools off a bit this time of year, then gets another bounce after Labor Day. Anyone's guess what will happen this year-----
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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