Hello Everyone,
Going into the Holiday Season, the Marin County real estate market has definitely not settled down for a long winter's nap-- at least not yet.
November month-end statistics from Coldwell Banker MarketQuest (MQ)* show both single family and condo activity smoked recent averagees with inventory down and new sales contracts up!
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Inventory down to 845 (MQ)* units from 1,111 in October. This compares to 1,000 in Nov of 2009, and 980 in 2008. There were 214 accepted offers on SFR's this November, compared to 154 in Nov of '09 and only 89 in the same period in '08. November's accepted offers as a percentage of total SFR inventory were 25.3%, compared to 17.5% in October, 15.4% in Nov of 2009, and just 9.1% in Nov. of '08. Months supply of inventory down to 5.8 from 7.5 in October. YTD SFR sales continue to lead '09's but the pace continues to lag with 1708 units sold by 12/7 compared to the year-ago figure of 1530. This represents an increase of 11.6%, but two weeks ago, it was up 13%. As we have mentioned, this deceleration has been going on for several months now since the homebuyer tax credits expired. The good news is that with the recent encouraging sales activity, it appears that we will hold on to finish the year on the "plus" side. Properties under $1million still selling well, with 35.25% of SFR's listed on the Marin MLS in contract as of 12/7. Upper end of the market dropped back again in November with only 7.25% of properties listed at $2-$3million and 3.66% of those over $3million in contract on December 7.
Condo's
Condo inventory also down at 254 (MQ)* vs. 309 at the end of October. Compares to 281 in Nov. '09 and 306 in '08. November brought 72 accepted condo offers, 20 more than in Nov. '09 and25 above '08. Accepted offers as a percentage of inventory were 25.3, up from October's 17.5%, easily beating the Nov. '09 figure of 15.4% and Nov '08's 9.1%. Months supply of inventory dropped to 5.8 from this October's 7.5.
With numbers like this, it seems fairly clear that something is going on. The attached monthly City-by-City Report (Marin MLS)* reveals where most of the action is. Greenbrae continues to lead the pack, with 12 of 26 (46.5%) of listed properties in contract as of 11/30. Next in line is Novato, with 40.45% (125 of 309 listed properties), a very nice increase from October's 36.6%. San Rafael showing encouraging activity with an increase to 31.09% (97 of 312 listed properties) from October's 24.6%. Belvedere still stuck in last place with a drop to 10.26% from last report's 15.56%. 12/7's YTD condo sales figure of 444 units down 5.9% from last year's level of 472 at the same time. 27.5% of condo's under $1million in contract on 12/7 compared to October's 33.02%, but sales activity up (MQ) with 45 units sold in November compared to 31 in October, more or less on par with 09's November figure of 45 and '08's 47 units.
Please take a look at the relatively recent Market Action Reports for both Condo's and SFR's. I think you will find them useful and informative.
This will be the last report until the beginning of the New Year.
Until then, best wishes to one and all for an enjoyable and safe Holiday Season and a prosperous, happy, healthy, and successful the New Year.
Fred
* Percentage in contract and other figures are often inconsistent between Market Quest and MLS due to differences in the way the two systems count active listings
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property Specialist
Direct: (415) 464-3509
Fax: (415) 925-0962
Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com
Website: Visit My Website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, December 13, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.14.10
Hello Everyone,
Rumors filtering out from San Francisco indicate the commercial real estate market there may be starting to recover. Agent reports of increased office leasing activity in the last 6 weeks may be a hopeful sign indicating confidence and willingness to take risks returning on the part of businesses, investors, etc. If so, this should eventually spill over and assist with re-igniting other parts of the local economy. Respected analysts still split over whether there will be a significant economic recovery in the coming year or we will be forced to wait until 2012 and beyond. A number of voices on both sides, with some predicting further declines and others predicting stabilization and recovery in the coming months.
Activity here in Marin County remains stable, with inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) declining 71 units since last report, and Condo inventory off 3 units.
As of November 8, there were 1152 Single Family Residences listed for sale on the Marin County MLS, and 298 of those were in contract. Percentage in contract up slightly in all price segments except for the $1million to $1.99 million range, where it was off half a percentage point, or essentially unchanged. The key “entry-level” under-one million segment up from 30.96% to 31.64%, while the over-$3million segment increased from 7.84% to 9% on the strength of a 2 unit decline in inventory and a 1 unit increase in listings in contract. Small numbers like that provide evidence too thin to make market generalizations, but the good news is that some of those upper-end properties are continuing to move!
Average SFR list price in the County for YTD sold properties was $!,084,122 as of November 8, and The average sale price was $1,033,768. This compares to the year-ago figures of $1,051,107 list and $998,862 sold. Days on market this year at 92, a slight improvement over the 97 day figure at this time last year. Continuing to be troubling, the YTD units-sold figure decelerated again and is now up 15.3% for the year, compared to 18% at last report. With about a month and a half remaining in the year, it looks as though we may end up just about even or perhaps only slightly ahead of last year’s unit sales numbers. That would seem to confirm what a lot of folks have been saying about the federal tax stimulus program only pushing sales into the first part of the year.
Condominium listings on the Marin MLS were 348 on November 8. 114 of those, or 32.76% were in contract. This remains virtually unchanged from last report’s 33.05%. Of the 348 units, only 19 were priced over $1million, and of those, only 2 units were in contract, surprisingly both in the $2million-$2.99 million price range. The $1million to $1.99 million price segment had 17 active listings and none of those were in contract. Condo prices up slightly over this time last year, with YTD sold unit average list price at $417,078 and average sold price at $404,755. This compares to $387,599 and $374,610 at the same time last year. Days on the market for sold units to November 8 are 113 this year vs. 102 last year at this time. Total YTD condo units sold as of November 8 were 404 compared to the 2009 figure of 424 on the same date. The 20 unit decrease represents a decline of approximately 4.7%.
Where is this market headed? Business school professors are fond of saying that good market information results in efficient markets and that the better the information, the more efficient the market. While we have plenty of information, we have very little in the way of agreement about what it means. One thing is sure. Eventually the real estate market will recover. Those who bought near the bottom will be the envy of those who waited what will have turned out to be too long.. So the question becomes not “are we at the bottom of this market”, but “are we near the bottom”, or “are we still on the way down or are we on the way back up”?? There will be people who take action based on their best understanding of the information available, and if the past is any indication, some of them will do very well indeed!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Rumors filtering out from San Francisco indicate the commercial real estate market there may be starting to recover. Agent reports of increased office leasing activity in the last 6 weeks may be a hopeful sign indicating confidence and willingness to take risks returning on the part of businesses, investors, etc. If so, this should eventually spill over and assist with re-igniting other parts of the local economy. Respected analysts still split over whether there will be a significant economic recovery in the coming year or we will be forced to wait until 2012 and beyond. A number of voices on both sides, with some predicting further declines and others predicting stabilization and recovery in the coming months.
Activity here in Marin County remains stable, with inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) declining 71 units since last report, and Condo inventory off 3 units.
As of November 8, there were 1152 Single Family Residences listed for sale on the Marin County MLS, and 298 of those were in contract. Percentage in contract up slightly in all price segments except for the $1million to $1.99 million range, where it was off half a percentage point, or essentially unchanged. The key “entry-level” under-one million segment up from 30.96% to 31.64%, while the over-$3million segment increased from 7.84% to 9% on the strength of a 2 unit decline in inventory and a 1 unit increase in listings in contract. Small numbers like that provide evidence too thin to make market generalizations, but the good news is that some of those upper-end properties are continuing to move!
Average SFR list price in the County for YTD sold properties was $!,084,122 as of November 8, and The average sale price was $1,033,768. This compares to the year-ago figures of $1,051,107 list and $998,862 sold. Days on market this year at 92, a slight improvement over the 97 day figure at this time last year. Continuing to be troubling, the YTD units-sold figure decelerated again and is now up 15.3% for the year, compared to 18% at last report. With about a month and a half remaining in the year, it looks as though we may end up just about even or perhaps only slightly ahead of last year’s unit sales numbers. That would seem to confirm what a lot of folks have been saying about the federal tax stimulus program only pushing sales into the first part of the year.
Condominium listings on the Marin MLS were 348 on November 8. 114 of those, or 32.76% were in contract. This remains virtually unchanged from last report’s 33.05%. Of the 348 units, only 19 were priced over $1million, and of those, only 2 units were in contract, surprisingly both in the $2million-$2.99 million price range. The $1million to $1.99 million price segment had 17 active listings and none of those were in contract. Condo prices up slightly over this time last year, with YTD sold unit average list price at $417,078 and average sold price at $404,755. This compares to $387,599 and $374,610 at the same time last year. Days on the market for sold units to November 8 are 113 this year vs. 102 last year at this time. Total YTD condo units sold as of November 8 were 404 compared to the 2009 figure of 424 on the same date. The 20 unit decrease represents a decline of approximately 4.7%.
Where is this market headed? Business school professors are fond of saying that good market information results in efficient markets and that the better the information, the more efficient the market. While we have plenty of information, we have very little in the way of agreement about what it means. One thing is sure. Eventually the real estate market will recover. Those who bought near the bottom will be the envy of those who waited what will have turned out to be too long.. So the question becomes not “are we at the bottom of this market”, but “are we near the bottom”, or “are we still on the way down or are we on the way back up”?? There will be people who take action based on their best understanding of the information available, and if the past is any indication, some of them will do very well indeed!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, November 1, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.1.10
Hello Everyone,
Stock market continues strong, with traders anticipating more federal intervention to stimulate the economy.
Marin County percentage of homes in contract for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condos up at every price point. Active inventory of both SFR's and Condo's down 10% or more from October levels of the last two years. October's accepted offers up up up over year-ago and two-year-ago levels for both condo's and SFR's. Monthly City--by-City Report shows 10 of 13 cities and towns covered increased their percentage in contract in October while only 3 (Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Larkspur) experienced a decrease. At the same time, units sold are down down down for October from levels of the last two years.
People are confused about the market. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, afraid to buy now in case prices go lower later. Many sellers are reluctant to sell now, holding on, and hoping that prices may be higher next year. No one knows for sure but everyone seems to have an opinion---
In an article dated October 21, San Diego based MDA Data Quick, a real estate news service, noted the continuing downward trend in the Bay Area housing market, stating, in part:
"Bay Area home sales fell year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month in September, dropping 27 percent below average, as historically-low mortgage rates failed to nudge many would-be buyers off the sidelines---"
"Last month’s sales were the lowest for any September since 2007, when 5,014 homes sold, and were the second-lowest since September 1991, when 5,735 sold. September sales fell 26.7 percent below the average September sales tally of 8,641 since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. September sales have ranged from a low of 5,735 in 1991 to a high of 13,343 in 2003."
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president was quoted as saying “The sidelines are getting awfully crowded in this housing game. They’re lined with people who have the ability to buy now but are waiting for the right moment, and with people who have the means but lack job confidence. Then you have all of the folks who don’t have the equity, don’t have a job or can’t qualify for the larger, so-called jumbo mortgages that were once so common in the Bay Area,” “Sales have been so low for so long – 27 percent below average last month – that significant pent-up demand is accumulating. When it will be released will depend largely on when the economy rebounds more convincingly, spurring more jobs and higher consumer confidence. If, in the meantime, prices fall more and interest rates stay the same or edge lower, then it’s easy to imagine a burst of sales activity at some point. Next spring could be very interesting.”
Read the full text of the article at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101021.aspx
In an Associated Press article dated 10/26/2010, Columnist Alan Zibel stated:
"The foreclosure problem is far from over. A "shadow inventory" of homes on the verge of foreclosure is bound to force prices lower well into next year. About 2 million loans are in foreclosure, and another 2.4 million borrowers have missed at least 90 days of mortgage payments, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
"It's like a never-ending supply" of homes, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at the New York investment bank Westwood Capital. He expects prices to fall another 10 percent over the next year — and not improve much after that.
Full text of article available at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39845654/ns/business-real_estate/
Writing for cnn.money.com, staff analyst Les Christie, in a November 1 article, wrote:
"The good news is, 'There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,' according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, 'more home price declines are coming'. He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%."
Read the text of that article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/01/real_estate/housing_market_state/index.htm
Of course, some of these articles are written about the nation-wide real estate picture. Even the local article describes the current market throughout the entire Bay Area and if we know one thing, it is that real estate is local. We cannot completely escape national trends and global economic effects, but we do have a unique market here in Marin County. Having said that, it is important to recognize that the houses that are selling here are competitively priced. Even in areas with a percentage in contract that traditionally signifies a sellers' market, sellers cannot afford to ignore buyers' price sensitivity. Houses priced right are selling while those priced higher are sitting. Buyers are doing their homework. They are patient and they are picky. Even in multiple-offer situations, properties often not going much over list price. There are some multiple- offer deals that don't even make it all the way to list price and are going out at discounts. Lots of escrows falling through when buyers and sellers can't agree---- or buyers change their minds during the contingency period. Banks being really tough on appraisals so even if a prospective buyer agrees to an over-optimistic price, an altitude-adjusting moment arrives when the appraisal comes back lower than the contract price, leaving the buyer with a choice of re-negotiating, getting out of contract, or making up the difference with an increased down payment.
If past cycles are any indication, we are somewhere near the bottom of this one and prices will be going up. Only time will tell where this market is headed and how quickly, but today's Buyers have a tremendous opportunity to purchase properties that they could only have dreamed of of owning just two years ago.
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Stock market continues strong, with traders anticipating more federal intervention to stimulate the economy.
Marin County percentage of homes in contract for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condos up at every price point. Active inventory of both SFR's and Condo's down 10% or more from October levels of the last two years. October's accepted offers up up up over year-ago and two-year-ago levels for both condo's and SFR's. Monthly City--by-City Report shows 10 of 13 cities and towns covered increased their percentage in contract in October while only 3 (Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Larkspur) experienced a decrease. At the same time, units sold are down down down for October from levels of the last two years.
People are confused about the market. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, afraid to buy now in case prices go lower later. Many sellers are reluctant to sell now, holding on, and hoping that prices may be higher next year. No one knows for sure but everyone seems to have an opinion---
In an article dated October 21, San Diego based MDA Data Quick, a real estate news service, noted the continuing downward trend in the Bay Area housing market, stating, in part:
"Bay Area home sales fell year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month in September, dropping 27 percent below average, as historically-low mortgage rates failed to nudge many would-be buyers off the sidelines---"
"Last month’s sales were the lowest for any September since 2007, when 5,014 homes sold, and were the second-lowest since September 1991, when 5,735 sold. September sales fell 26.7 percent below the average September sales tally of 8,641 since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. September sales have ranged from a low of 5,735 in 1991 to a high of 13,343 in 2003."
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president was quoted as saying “The sidelines are getting awfully crowded in this housing game. They’re lined with people who have the ability to buy now but are waiting for the right moment, and with people who have the means but lack job confidence. Then you have all of the folks who don’t have the equity, don’t have a job or can’t qualify for the larger, so-called jumbo mortgages that were once so common in the Bay Area,” “Sales have been so low for so long – 27 percent below average last month – that significant pent-up demand is accumulating. When it will be released will depend largely on when the economy rebounds more convincingly, spurring more jobs and higher consumer confidence. If, in the meantime, prices fall more and interest rates stay the same or edge lower, then it’s easy to imagine a burst of sales activity at some point. Next spring could be very interesting.”
Read the full text of the article at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101021.aspx
In an Associated Press article dated 10/26/2010, Columnist Alan Zibel stated:
"The foreclosure problem is far from over. A "shadow inventory" of homes on the verge of foreclosure is bound to force prices lower well into next year. About 2 million loans are in foreclosure, and another 2.4 million borrowers have missed at least 90 days of mortgage payments, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
"It's like a never-ending supply" of homes, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at the New York investment bank Westwood Capital. He expects prices to fall another 10 percent over the next year — and not improve much after that.
Full text of article available at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39845654/ns/business-real_estate/
Writing for cnn.money.com, staff analyst Les Christie, in a November 1 article, wrote:
"The good news is, 'There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,' according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, 'more home price declines are coming'. He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%."
Read the text of that article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/01/real_estate/housing_market_state/index.htm
Of course, some of these articles are written about the nation-wide real estate picture. Even the local article describes the current market throughout the entire Bay Area and if we know one thing, it is that real estate is local. We cannot completely escape national trends and global economic effects, but we do have a unique market here in Marin County. Having said that, it is important to recognize that the houses that are selling here are competitively priced. Even in areas with a percentage in contract that traditionally signifies a sellers' market, sellers cannot afford to ignore buyers' price sensitivity. Houses priced right are selling while those priced higher are sitting. Buyers are doing their homework. They are patient and they are picky. Even in multiple-offer situations, properties often not going much over list price. There are some multiple- offer deals that don't even make it all the way to list price and are going out at discounts. Lots of escrows falling through when buyers and sellers can't agree---- or buyers change their minds during the contingency period. Banks being really tough on appraisals so even if a prospective buyer agrees to an over-optimistic price, an altitude-adjusting moment arrives when the appraisal comes back lower than the contract price, leaving the buyer with a choice of re-negotiating, getting out of contract, or making up the difference with an increased down payment.
If past cycles are any indication, we are somewhere near the bottom of this one and prices will be going up. Only time will tell where this market is headed and how quickly, but today's Buyers have a tremendous opportunity to purchase properties that they could only have dreamed of of owning just two years ago.
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 18, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.17.10
Hello Everyone,
In spite of a loss on Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week above 11,000, largely based on speculation the the Fed will step in soon with a major injection of cash in the form of asset purchases, possibly as much as $500 billion.
Local Marin real estate market a bit sluggish for the period, with buyers wary and many sellers unwilling to list their homes at or near prevailing market prices.
Inventory of Marin County single family residences (SFR) actually went down 35 units to 1265 since our last report. YTD units sold still ahead of the same date last year. 1429 SFR's sold as of 10/12 compared to 1194 at the same time in '09, or up 19.7%. This roughly the same as we saw on October 2, representing a pause from several months of steady erosion since the buyer tax credits ended last spring. Overall percentage in contract was up slightly, from 23.17 to 24.58%, tantalizingly close to the "magic" number of 25% that signals a "balanced" market. Homes under $1million also up at 30.47% in contract vs. 29.63% at last report. Upper price segments, $1-2 million and $2-3 million up slightly as well, bucking the recent trend. Homes over 3 million still stubbornly stuck, with only 7.41% in contract compared to 8.7% at last report. That equates to only 8 homes in contract our of 108 currently listed on the Marin county MLS for that price range. Forward-thinking buyers who are well qualified or have cash can pick up tremendous bargains on these upper-end propertied. Like everything else, this situation will eventually change- but for the moment, many luxury homes in Marin County could be called "The Deal of the Century"!
Condo inventory relatively stable, at 364 units on October 13 vs. 362 on October 2. YTD unit sales slipped below the same date last year at 370 on October 12 compared to the year-ago figure of 378, or down 2%. Percentage in contract down slightly from 31.2 to 30.4%. Average YTD sold price of $402,306 on October 12 up from last year at the same time when it was $373,175. This is not necessarily all attributable to price appreciation as much depends on the specific mix of units being sold. Days on Market at 111 vs. 103 last year at the same time.
Pricing a critical element in the curent Marin County real estate market. Smart, successful sellers and their agents search current comparable sales and set prices accordingly. Then they prepare the property carefully and present it in the best possible light, with appropriate marketing. They are prepared to negotiate, and they know that no amount of marketing will sell an overpriced listing in the current environment. Buyers spend a lot of time on Trulia, Redfin, Zillow, and other sites. They have done their homework and they know values. Sellers benefit from the assistance of professional local REALTORS who know neighborhood values.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
In spite of a loss on Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week above 11,000, largely based on speculation the the Fed will step in soon with a major injection of cash in the form of asset purchases, possibly as much as $500 billion.
Local Marin real estate market a bit sluggish for the period, with buyers wary and many sellers unwilling to list their homes at or near prevailing market prices.
Inventory of Marin County single family residences (SFR) actually went down 35 units to 1265 since our last report. YTD units sold still ahead of the same date last year. 1429 SFR's sold as of 10/12 compared to 1194 at the same time in '09, or up 19.7%. This roughly the same as we saw on October 2, representing a pause from several months of steady erosion since the buyer tax credits ended last spring. Overall percentage in contract was up slightly, from 23.17 to 24.58%, tantalizingly close to the "magic" number of 25% that signals a "balanced" market. Homes under $1million also up at 30.47% in contract vs. 29.63% at last report. Upper price segments, $1-2 million and $2-3 million up slightly as well, bucking the recent trend. Homes over 3 million still stubbornly stuck, with only 7.41% in contract compared to 8.7% at last report. That equates to only 8 homes in contract our of 108 currently listed on the Marin county MLS for that price range. Forward-thinking buyers who are well qualified or have cash can pick up tremendous bargains on these upper-end propertied. Like everything else, this situation will eventually change- but for the moment, many luxury homes in Marin County could be called "The Deal of the Century"!
Condo inventory relatively stable, at 364 units on October 13 vs. 362 on October 2. YTD unit sales slipped below the same date last year at 370 on October 12 compared to the year-ago figure of 378, or down 2%. Percentage in contract down slightly from 31.2 to 30.4%. Average YTD sold price of $402,306 on October 12 up from last year at the same time when it was $373,175. This is not necessarily all attributable to price appreciation as much depends on the specific mix of units being sold. Days on Market at 111 vs. 103 last year at the same time.
Pricing a critical element in the curent Marin County real estate market. Smart, successful sellers and their agents search current comparable sales and set prices accordingly. Then they prepare the property carefully and present it in the best possible light, with appropriate marketing. They are prepared to negotiate, and they know that no amount of marketing will sell an overpriced listing in the current environment. Buyers spend a lot of time on Trulia, Redfin, Zillow, and other sites. They have done their homework and they know values. Sellers benefit from the assistance of professional local REALTORS who know neighborhood values.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 4, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.3.10
Hello Everyone,
According to a Wall Street Journal article dated October 1, "U.S. stocks kicked off the fourth quarter on a positive note, rising modestly even as a string of economic reports, including key manufacturing data, yielded conflicting signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 42 points, or 0.4%, at 10830. But the blue-chip index fell 0.3% for the week and snapped its four-week winning streak. " The article went on to state "Friday's gains came after the Dow surged 7.7% last month -- its best September performance since 1939".
Read the full article at http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101001-712081.html
More good news arrived in my inbox Friday in the form of an email from a colleague with an article by Forbes editor Robert Lenzner. The piece reported that billionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson recently "told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold." and stated that this was the best time in 50 years to buy homes. The article quoted Paulson as recommending "“If you don’t own a home buy one,” ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Refreshing, upbeat real estate predictions from someone who has a pretty good track record---- in his league they keep score with dollars, and he is way ahead! Read the article at
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2010/09/27/john-paulson-sell-bonds-buy-stocks-double-digit-inflation-coming/
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows showed a decline in percentage in contract and 6 showed an increase. Winners included Corte Madera at 49% in contract, followed by Greenbrae at 42.5%. Fairfax showing the best gain, going from 7.89% last month to 29% on October 2. Ross had the weakest showing with only 2 of 21 listed homes in contract, or 9.5%.
SFR's and Condo's showed slight gains in percentage in contract in all price ranges. Some encouraging increases in the upper end activity with SFR's above $3million going from 5% to 8.7% in contract and condo's in the $1million to $1.99 million category going from 5.5% to 11% in contract since the beginning of September. CB MarketQuest showing some very encouraging statistics with 268 accepted offers on Single Family Residences during the month compared to 146 in Sept of last year and 143 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 25.6% during the month compared to 11.6% and 12.7% in September for the previous two years. Condo's showed a similar trend with 77 accepted offers in September compared to 52 in Sept 2009 and 58 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 28.3% at the end of September compared to the year-ago figure of 16.5% and 15.5% in Sept., 2008. At the same time, though still ahead of 2009, the substantial YTD sales gains of the first part of the year continue to erode. SFR YTD units sold as of 9/28 were 1356 compared to 1130 at the same time last year. The 226 unit difference represents a 20% increase. Condo YTD unit sales of 354 narrowly squeak ahead of last year's 347 at the same time with a meager 2% increase. The question is, will the new sales activity be enough to reverse this downward trend?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
According to a Wall Street Journal article dated October 1, "U.S. stocks kicked off the fourth quarter on a positive note, rising modestly even as a string of economic reports, including key manufacturing data, yielded conflicting signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 42 points, or 0.4%, at 10830. But the blue-chip index fell 0.3% for the week and snapped its four-week winning streak. " The article went on to state "Friday's gains came after the Dow surged 7.7% last month -- its best September performance since 1939".
Read the full article at http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101001-712081.html
More good news arrived in my inbox Friday in the form of an email from a colleague with an article by Forbes editor Robert Lenzner. The piece reported that billionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson recently "told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold." and stated that this was the best time in 50 years to buy homes. The article quoted Paulson as recommending "“If you don’t own a home buy one,” ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Refreshing, upbeat real estate predictions from someone who has a pretty good track record---- in his league they keep score with dollars, and he is way ahead! Read the article at
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2010/09/27/john-paulson-sell-bonds-buy-stocks-double-digit-inflation-coming/
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows showed a decline in percentage in contract and 6 showed an increase. Winners included Corte Madera at 49% in contract, followed by Greenbrae at 42.5%. Fairfax showing the best gain, going from 7.89% last month to 29% on October 2. Ross had the weakest showing with only 2 of 21 listed homes in contract, or 9.5%.
SFR's and Condo's showed slight gains in percentage in contract in all price ranges. Some encouraging increases in the upper end activity with SFR's above $3million going from 5% to 8.7% in contract and condo's in the $1million to $1.99 million category going from 5.5% to 11% in contract since the beginning of September. CB MarketQuest showing some very encouraging statistics with 268 accepted offers on Single Family Residences during the month compared to 146 in Sept of last year and 143 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 25.6% during the month compared to 11.6% and 12.7% in September for the previous two years. Condo's showed a similar trend with 77 accepted offers in September compared to 52 in Sept 2009 and 58 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 28.3% at the end of September compared to the year-ago figure of 16.5% and 15.5% in Sept., 2008. At the same time, though still ahead of 2009, the substantial YTD sales gains of the first part of the year continue to erode. SFR YTD units sold as of 9/28 were 1356 compared to 1130 at the same time last year. The 226 unit difference represents a 20% increase. Condo YTD unit sales of 354 narrowly squeak ahead of last year's 347 at the same time with a meager 2% increase. The question is, will the new sales activity be enough to reverse this downward trend?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, September 19, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.19.10
Hello Everyone,
As we predicted at the beginning of the month, post-Labor Day housing inventory did take a bit of a jump this week, with a 55 unit increase in Single Family Residence (SFR) listings, bringing the new total to 1284. Condo listings up only marginally with a slim 4 unit increase from 358 to 362. Percentage in contract generally down as well.
On September 15, 22.5% of SFR's were in contract in all price ranges compared to 23.7% on September 1. SFR's under $1 million slipped a bit too, from 31.78% in contract on 9/1 to 29.54% on 9/15. Still in what we have traditionally termed "sellers market" territory, though this expression has limited utility in our current, critically price-sensitive market. The $1million to $1.99 million SFR segment a pleasant surprise with an increase from 16.7% to 17.05% in contract. YTD SFR unit sales up 225 compared to the same time last year, with 1286 SFR units sold in the County as of 9/15, a 21.2% increase over the same time last year. This percentage increase has been eroding for some time now, since losing momentum from the federal homebuyer tax credits, which expired at the end of April. Average listing price or $1,096,206 and average sold price of $1,046,473 remain up from last year's $1,041.956 and $986,458. Some of this increase due to price increases, but a substantial amount due to fewer foreclosures as a percentage of total sales.
Condo inventory up only slightly, as mentioned earlier. Of all condo units listed for sale on 9/15, 28.4% were in contract, roughly unchanged from the 28.7% in contract on September 1. As of 9.15, YTD condo units sold stood at 340 compared to the year-ago figure of 322. The 18 unit difference represents a 5.6% increase that has also been shrinking over the summer. Average condo YTD list price of $416,215 and sale price of $404,527 still beat last year's YTD figures of $380,133 and $366,350.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, noted, in a September 16 article, that Bay Area-wide real estate sales in August were the lowest for any August since 1992---but added that sales, which were 10.9% below August of 2009 had "pulled out of the steep descent seen in July when the market lost most of the boost that had been provided by federal home buyer tax credits". The article noted that, by comparison, July sales were 19.1% below this June and 22.8% below July '09.
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, when asked if this was bad news, was quoted as saying "---- it depends on your perspective. Some will find the August sales level disheartening though at least the declines weren't as steep as in July. But spectacularly low mortgage rates and today's lower prices present new opportunities for home shoppers who got discouraged in the past". Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100916.aspx
Local real estate agents this week had mixed reactions to the market, with some noting that attractive new listings were being snapped up by buyers almost immediately and others still expressing concern over the state of the economy and buyers' reluctance to commit.
Let's see what the next couple of weeks bring. That should give us some perspective on what the remainder of the year may have in store for us.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
As we predicted at the beginning of the month, post-Labor Day housing inventory did take a bit of a jump this week, with a 55 unit increase in Single Family Residence (SFR) listings, bringing the new total to 1284. Condo listings up only marginally with a slim 4 unit increase from 358 to 362. Percentage in contract generally down as well.
On September 15, 22.5% of SFR's were in contract in all price ranges compared to 23.7% on September 1. SFR's under $1 million slipped a bit too, from 31.78% in contract on 9/1 to 29.54% on 9/15. Still in what we have traditionally termed "sellers market" territory, though this expression has limited utility in our current, critically price-sensitive market. The $1million to $1.99 million SFR segment a pleasant surprise with an increase from 16.7% to 17.05% in contract. YTD SFR unit sales up 225 compared to the same time last year, with 1286 SFR units sold in the County as of 9/15, a 21.2% increase over the same time last year. This percentage increase has been eroding for some time now, since losing momentum from the federal homebuyer tax credits, which expired at the end of April. Average listing price or $1,096,206 and average sold price of $1,046,473 remain up from last year's $1,041.956 and $986,458. Some of this increase due to price increases, but a substantial amount due to fewer foreclosures as a percentage of total sales.
Condo inventory up only slightly, as mentioned earlier. Of all condo units listed for sale on 9/15, 28.4% were in contract, roughly unchanged from the 28.7% in contract on September 1. As of 9.15, YTD condo units sold stood at 340 compared to the year-ago figure of 322. The 18 unit difference represents a 5.6% increase that has also been shrinking over the summer. Average condo YTD list price of $416,215 and sale price of $404,527 still beat last year's YTD figures of $380,133 and $366,350.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, noted, in a September 16 article, that Bay Area-wide real estate sales in August were the lowest for any August since 1992---but added that sales, which were 10.9% below August of 2009 had "pulled out of the steep descent seen in July when the market lost most of the boost that had been provided by federal home buyer tax credits". The article noted that, by comparison, July sales were 19.1% below this June and 22.8% below July '09.
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, when asked if this was bad news, was quoted as saying "---- it depends on your perspective. Some will find the August sales level disheartening though at least the declines weren't as steep as in July. But spectacularly low mortgage rates and today's lower prices present new opportunities for home shoppers who got discouraged in the past". Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100916.aspx
Local real estate agents this week had mixed reactions to the market, with some noting that attractive new listings were being snapped up by buyers almost immediately and others still expressing concern over the state of the economy and buyers' reluctance to commit.
Let's see what the next couple of weeks bring. That should give us some perspective on what the remainder of the year may have in store for us.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, September 5, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.5.10
Hello Everyone,
And Happy Labor Day Weekend.
Finally, as summer draws to a close, we are getting some warm weather---- some of it just a little bit too warm for folks who are not used to 100+ degree days. But so far, the weekend weather has been just about perfect. Buyers are out and attending open homes that interest them and several new listings in Southern Marin were getting a lot of activity around 1pm today, just as Sunday Opens were starting up. Lots of discussion among local agents about the state of the economy and whether we are in for a real estate "double dip". Many agents and their clients getting homes ready to place on the market for the traditional post Labor Day selling season, which usually lasts until about Thanksgiving. The question in everyone's mind is "How healthy will the fall real estate market be here in Marin County?" Lots of opinions on both sides---- with statistics to back them up. Remember Mark Twain's quote about there being 3 kinds of lies: Lies; Damn Lies; and Statistics? There are a lot of the latter attached to this email. In particular, please note the much-awaited City-by-City Analysis which comes out monthly. Of 13 Marin County cities and towns covered, it shows percentage in contract up in 9, down in 3, and essentially unchanged in 1. Also, please review the Single Family (SFR) and Condo Market Action Reports from NRT/Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. MarketQuest statistics from this and other reports show some very interesting activity during the month of August. For example: Active inventory (8/31) of 1,026 SFR's and 281 Condo's compares to 1228 SFR/325 Condo last August, and 1129 SFR/364 Condo in August of 2008. August's sold listings, at 132 SFR and 32 Condo compare to 167 SFR/38 Condo last year and 160 SFR/57 Condo in 2008. But, with 287 accepted offers for SFR's and 78 for condo's, this August was by far the best of the three years, with SFR's at 179 last year and 157 in '08 and Condo's at 48 last August and 61 the year before. This brings the ratio of accepted offers to new listings in August to 105.9% for SFR's and 101.3% for Condo's. Other than last December's 117% for SFR's, these are the highest figures in the 2 year period covered by the reports!
Yes, August sales are down for both SFR's and Condo's, both on a year-over-year basis and compared to July. YTD units sold, while still ahead of last year for both SFR's and Condo's have been losing momentum for some weeks now. YTD SFR units sold at 1226 as of 8/31 compared to 1000 in August of '09, or up 22.6%, while Condo units sold were 318 on 8/31 compared to the year-ago figure of 304, just hanging on to a razor-thin 4.6% year-over-year gain. Average YTD SFR sold price at $1,044,953 compared to $980,1113 last August and average days on market (DOM) for sold properties improved slightly from 98 last August to the current level of 87 DOM. For Condo's, the YTD average sold price on 8/31 was $394,377 vs. '09's $369,296, with DOM up 6 days from 103 to 110. The under-$1million range is still the most active, with 31.78% of SFR's and 29.46% of Condo's in contract on a County-wide basis. Upper end of the market still lagging due to continuing challenges in obtaining "jumbo" financing. Still a fabulous time for high-end cash buyers to pick up properties at excellent prices.
Buyers are out there. They are well-informed and looking for value. Successful agents and sellers are paying attention to detail, dressing properties in their "Sunday best" paying close attention to the most recent comparable sales, and pricing them to sell. Most agents also being careful not to under-price listings as current market environment less likely to float prices substantially higher than listing price, even with two or three offers. Buyers' agents acutely aware of hurdles with appraisers and loans--- less likely to encourage clients to go really high even to get a preferred property.
What does it all mean--- inventory down, unit sales down, and accepted offers up substantially??
We are looking forward with anticipation to the next several weeks, which should reveal the trend for the fall real estate market---------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
And Happy Labor Day Weekend.
Finally, as summer draws to a close, we are getting some warm weather---- some of it just a little bit too warm for folks who are not used to 100+ degree days. But so far, the weekend weather has been just about perfect. Buyers are out and attending open homes that interest them and several new listings in Southern Marin were getting a lot of activity around 1pm today, just as Sunday Opens were starting up. Lots of discussion among local agents about the state of the economy and whether we are in for a real estate "double dip". Many agents and their clients getting homes ready to place on the market for the traditional post Labor Day selling season, which usually lasts until about Thanksgiving. The question in everyone's mind is "How healthy will the fall real estate market be here in Marin County?" Lots of opinions on both sides---- with statistics to back them up. Remember Mark Twain's quote about there being 3 kinds of lies: Lies; Damn Lies; and Statistics? There are a lot of the latter attached to this email. In particular, please note the much-awaited City-by-City Analysis which comes out monthly. Of 13 Marin County cities and towns covered, it shows percentage in contract up in 9, down in 3, and essentially unchanged in 1. Also, please review the Single Family (SFR) and Condo Market Action Reports from NRT/Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. MarketQuest statistics from this and other reports show some very interesting activity during the month of August. For example: Active inventory (8/31) of 1,026 SFR's and 281 Condo's compares to 1228 SFR/325 Condo last August, and 1129 SFR/364 Condo in August of 2008. August's sold listings, at 132 SFR and 32 Condo compare to 167 SFR/38 Condo last year and 160 SFR/57 Condo in 2008. But, with 287 accepted offers for SFR's and 78 for condo's, this August was by far the best of the three years, with SFR's at 179 last year and 157 in '08 and Condo's at 48 last August and 61 the year before. This brings the ratio of accepted offers to new listings in August to 105.9% for SFR's and 101.3% for Condo's. Other than last December's 117% for SFR's, these are the highest figures in the 2 year period covered by the reports!
Yes, August sales are down for both SFR's and Condo's, both on a year-over-year basis and compared to July. YTD units sold, while still ahead of last year for both SFR's and Condo's have been losing momentum for some weeks now. YTD SFR units sold at 1226 as of 8/31 compared to 1000 in August of '09, or up 22.6%, while Condo units sold were 318 on 8/31 compared to the year-ago figure of 304, just hanging on to a razor-thin 4.6% year-over-year gain. Average YTD SFR sold price at $1,044,953 compared to $980,1113 last August and average days on market (DOM) for sold properties improved slightly from 98 last August to the current level of 87 DOM. For Condo's, the YTD average sold price on 8/31 was $394,377 vs. '09's $369,296, with DOM up 6 days from 103 to 110. The under-$1million range is still the most active, with 31.78% of SFR's and 29.46% of Condo's in contract on a County-wide basis. Upper end of the market still lagging due to continuing challenges in obtaining "jumbo" financing. Still a fabulous time for high-end cash buyers to pick up properties at excellent prices.
Buyers are out there. They are well-informed and looking for value. Successful agents and sellers are paying attention to detail, dressing properties in their "Sunday best" paying close attention to the most recent comparable sales, and pricing them to sell. Most agents also being careful not to under-price listings as current market environment less likely to float prices substantially higher than listing price, even with two or three offers. Buyers' agents acutely aware of hurdles with appraisers and loans--- less likely to encourage clients to go really high even to get a preferred property.
What does it all mean--- inventory down, unit sales down, and accepted offers up substantially??
We are looking forward with anticipation to the next several weeks, which should reveal the trend for the fall real estate market---------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, July 25, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.25.10
Hello Everyone,
We seem to be getting the lazy summer real estate market without the lazy summer weather! On Wednesday, according to one account, the weather in San Francisco was the coldest for that day since records have been kept, beginning in the late 1800's. And, reportedly, we are having the coolest summer weather in over 40 years! Nonetheless, people are still going on vacation (hopefully to warmer places) and many have placed their real estate searches or plans to sell on temporary "hold" while they are away. This is normal summer behavior. Our Marin County Market usually comes back to life in September when everyone returns to work or school, and stays fairly active until the holidays.
The Marin real estate market for the first four months of the year was incredibly hot, with buyers racing to beat the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credits, and total units sold were far ahead of 2009. As of July 20, YTD housing units sold were still substantially ahead of the same date in 2009, with condo unit sales up 10.2% (270 vs. 245) and Single Family unit sales up 34.2% (1024 vs. 763), but these percentages have been steadily eroding since the tax credits ended. A July 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, quoted their President, John Walsh, saying "The next few months should be very interesting. We're about to see how well the housing market can fly on its own. The tax credits no doubt stole some demand form the rest of this year, and soon we'll have a better sense of just how much." He went on to talk about the current lending environment and its effect on the market: "The Bay Area market is getting a boost from super-low mortgage rates and a slightly friendlier lending environment for high-end borrowers-------- But, barring new government stimulus, the housing market will be relying very heavily on improvements in the economy. A lot will depend on how many people find jobs, or stop worrying about losing the one they have."
See full text of article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100715.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR). Marin SFR inventory was just about unchanged at 1270 units vs. 1269 at last report. Overall percentage in contract continued to decline to 23.07%. At the beginning of May, it was 30.19%. The under-$1million market is still putting in the best performance at 31.23% in contract, a sellers' market, but still 2 points lower than last report and 8 points lower than the May 11 figure of 39.5%. Homes in the $1-$2million range up slightly from15.8% in contract on July 6 to 16.44% on July 20, but these were at 20.06% on May 11! Similarly, the $2-$3million range was at 9.73% in contract vs. 18.75% on May 11, and homes in the $3million-plus range at 8.18% on July 20 vs. 15.32% on May 11.
Average list price for SFR's for YTD homes sold as of July 20 was $1,108,584 vs. $1,043,949 last year, while average sold price of $1,058,324 compared to $988,149 at the same time in '09. Remember, in order for this to be an accurate gauge of the increase/decrease in home values, we would have to have sold the exact same mix of dwellings in both years, which is obviously not the case. Days on market for YTD sold properties dropped slightly from 98 in '09 to 87 as of July 20.
Condominium inventory up marginally, with 361 units listed for sale compared to 352 at last report. 29.92% of these were in contract, compared to the July 6 level of 32.10%. On May 11, 36.69% of listed condominium properties were in contract. Average list price of a Marin County Condo for YTD properties sold was $409,167 compared to $377,659 at the same time last year, and average sold price was $398,677 vs. 09's $363,577. Average Days on Market for sold properties were 106 as of July 20, compared to the year-ago figure of 101, a slight increase. Decreasing foreclosure activity a factor in year-over-year increases in selling prices for both SFR and Condo inventory, as less distressed property hits the market.
Pricing continues to be soft, except on the most desirable properties. This, combined with mortgage rates still holding at historic lows makes it a great opportunity for buyers. Buyers at the upper end of the market continue to have a rare opportunity to purchase property at very attractive rates. Sellers still not giving away Marin County real estate, but lower prices and bargain loan rates making homes affordable to many who formerly found themselves unable to buy a home here.
More next time.
Until then, enjoy the summer!
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
We seem to be getting the lazy summer real estate market without the lazy summer weather! On Wednesday, according to one account, the weather in San Francisco was the coldest for that day since records have been kept, beginning in the late 1800's. And, reportedly, we are having the coolest summer weather in over 40 years! Nonetheless, people are still going on vacation (hopefully to warmer places) and many have placed their real estate searches or plans to sell on temporary "hold" while they are away. This is normal summer behavior. Our Marin County Market usually comes back to life in September when everyone returns to work or school, and stays fairly active until the holidays.
The Marin real estate market for the first four months of the year was incredibly hot, with buyers racing to beat the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credits, and total units sold were far ahead of 2009. As of July 20, YTD housing units sold were still substantially ahead of the same date in 2009, with condo unit sales up 10.2% (270 vs. 245) and Single Family unit sales up 34.2% (1024 vs. 763), but these percentages have been steadily eroding since the tax credits ended. A July 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, quoted their President, John Walsh, saying "The next few months should be very interesting. We're about to see how well the housing market can fly on its own. The tax credits no doubt stole some demand form the rest of this year, and soon we'll have a better sense of just how much." He went on to talk about the current lending environment and its effect on the market: "The Bay Area market is getting a boost from super-low mortgage rates and a slightly friendlier lending environment for high-end borrowers-------- But, barring new government stimulus, the housing market will be relying very heavily on improvements in the economy. A lot will depend on how many people find jobs, or stop worrying about losing the one they have."
See full text of article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100715.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR). Marin SFR inventory was just about unchanged at 1270 units vs. 1269 at last report. Overall percentage in contract continued to decline to 23.07%. At the beginning of May, it was 30.19%. The under-$1million market is still putting in the best performance at 31.23% in contract, a sellers' market, but still 2 points lower than last report and 8 points lower than the May 11 figure of 39.5%. Homes in the $1-$2million range up slightly from15.8% in contract on July 6 to 16.44% on July 20, but these were at 20.06% on May 11! Similarly, the $2-$3million range was at 9.73% in contract vs. 18.75% on May 11, and homes in the $3million-plus range at 8.18% on July 20 vs. 15.32% on May 11.
Average list price for SFR's for YTD homes sold as of July 20 was $1,108,584 vs. $1,043,949 last year, while average sold price of $1,058,324 compared to $988,149 at the same time in '09. Remember, in order for this to be an accurate gauge of the increase/decrease in home values, we would have to have sold the exact same mix of dwellings in both years, which is obviously not the case. Days on market for YTD sold properties dropped slightly from 98 in '09 to 87 as of July 20.
Condominium inventory up marginally, with 361 units listed for sale compared to 352 at last report. 29.92% of these were in contract, compared to the July 6 level of 32.10%. On May 11, 36.69% of listed condominium properties were in contract. Average list price of a Marin County Condo for YTD properties sold was $409,167 compared to $377,659 at the same time last year, and average sold price was $398,677 vs. 09's $363,577. Average Days on Market for sold properties were 106 as of July 20, compared to the year-ago figure of 101, a slight increase. Decreasing foreclosure activity a factor in year-over-year increases in selling prices for both SFR and Condo inventory, as less distressed property hits the market.
Pricing continues to be soft, except on the most desirable properties. This, combined with mortgage rates still holding at historic lows makes it a great opportunity for buyers. Buyers at the upper end of the market continue to have a rare opportunity to purchase property at very attractive rates. Sellers still not giving away Marin County real estate, but lower prices and bargain loan rates making homes affordable to many who formerly found themselves unable to buy a home here.
More next time.
Until then, enjoy the summer!
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, July 11, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.11.10
Hello Everyone,
Better minds than ours are struggling to understand what is going on with U.S. and global economic conditions and predict the future . Sometimes feels a bit like financial fortune-telling!
On June 27, Princeton Professor of economics, Nobel prize-winner, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman penned an article titled "The Third Depression" in which he speculated that we are currently entering an extended economic trough. This, he says, is due in part to misguided attempts by legislators and officials to begin to balance budgets to avoid accumulating more debt. According to Krugman, they should instead be pursuing a much more expansive economic policy to avoid further economic contraction he says is an inevitable destination on their current course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
On July 10, Nelson Schwartz, another New York Times Columnist, wrote a column for the paper titled "Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery". According to the article, major Wall Street brokerages have added about 2,000 jobs since February in anticipation of a coming economic recovery. Schwartz postulates that the recent financial successes of banks will lead the U.S. out of recession/depression and into recovery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?th&emc=th
Reality is probably that the economy is at a tipping point and can go either way depending on events and policies in the next few months. It would seem that taking money out of the system to reduce deficits may not necessarily be beneficial at this particular point in time. We will see.
Meanwhile, Wall Street had a pretty good week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best week since July of 2009, climbing about 5%. Still a long way from its former peak, but slowly heading in the right direction though still volatile and changing directions regularly. Mortgage rates still at historical lows but buyers must be well-qualified with good income, assets, and credit scores.
"But what actually happened here in Marin County?" you may be asking, drumming your fingers on the counter. So, Ok, the local facts as we see them---------
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage-in-contract of 5 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows was up, and 6 down as of July 1. Greenbrae showed no change at slightly over 31% in contract. Corte Madera, at 35.29%, still the leader even though down substantially from last month's stellar performance of 47.73% in contract. Belvedere holding the low spot on the totem pole at only 5% in contract. Remember, many of these markets are relatively small, and a swing of a few units can have a dramatic impact on the percentage in contract number.
Single Family Homes (SFR) inventory down from 1308 to 1269 since last report. Percentage in contract down just slightly from 25.08% to 24.35% overall. Homes under $1million at 33.58% in contract, down less than half a point from last report. Homes in the $1million and up segments all showing reductions as follows:
$1million-$1.999 million down from 16.02% to 15.18%
$2million-$2.999 million down from 19,83% to 17.36%
$3million and up down from 8.40% to 7.76%
This in spite of anecdotes about high-end properties starting to move. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens next!
Average sold price of SFR's YTD at $1,054,594 vs $972,521 last year at this time. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93 vs. last year's 108 at the same time. 935 SFR's had sold as of July 6, 34% more than the 697 sold as of the same date in 2009. This percentage increase has been decelerating for a number of weeks now, since the Federal mortgage tax credits ended.
Good new is that according to CB MarketQuest, SFR accepted offers in June were 30.1% of inventory, the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. The June ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 91.8%, exceeded only (in 24 months) by December's figure of 116.3%.
Marin County Condominium inventory down slightly to 352 from 368 at last report. Overall percentage in contract also down from 33.42% to 32.10%, while condo's under $1million (all but 19 of the listings) also down from 35.16% to 33.63%. Average sold price YTD at $400,476 vs $365,807 this time last year, and DOM up slightly from 114 to 117 since June of '09. YTD condo units sold as of July 6 at 252 vs. '09 figure of 231, or up 9.1%. This also shows continued deceleration from the rushing-to-get-the-tax-break peak. Condo accepted offers as a percentage of inventory at 29.5% at the end of June, the highest in the 24 month period covered by the CB MarketQuest report. Accepted offers as a percentage of new listings, at 89% were 3rd highest in the 24 month period, behind November and December of '09. Important to remember that increasing sales prices may be an indication of the specific units sold as much as of overall price levels---- a phenomenon called "market mix".
Local offices still busy, with good numbers of open escrows, even though many buyers and sellers are taking their a summer vacation break. Traditionally, the local real estate business cools off a bit this time of year, then gets another bounce after Labor Day. Anyone's guess what will happen this year-----
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Better minds than ours are struggling to understand what is going on with U.S. and global economic conditions and predict the future . Sometimes feels a bit like financial fortune-telling!
On June 27, Princeton Professor of economics, Nobel prize-winner, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman penned an article titled "The Third Depression" in which he speculated that we are currently entering an extended economic trough. This, he says, is due in part to misguided attempts by legislators and officials to begin to balance budgets to avoid accumulating more debt. According to Krugman, they should instead be pursuing a much more expansive economic policy to avoid further economic contraction he says is an inevitable destination on their current course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
On July 10, Nelson Schwartz, another New York Times Columnist, wrote a column for the paper titled "Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery". According to the article, major Wall Street brokerages have added about 2,000 jobs since February in anticipation of a coming economic recovery. Schwartz postulates that the recent financial successes of banks will lead the U.S. out of recession/depression and into recovery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?th&emc=th
Reality is probably that the economy is at a tipping point and can go either way depending on events and policies in the next few months. It would seem that taking money out of the system to reduce deficits may not necessarily be beneficial at this particular point in time. We will see.
Meanwhile, Wall Street had a pretty good week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best week since July of 2009, climbing about 5%. Still a long way from its former peak, but slowly heading in the right direction though still volatile and changing directions regularly. Mortgage rates still at historical lows but buyers must be well-qualified with good income, assets, and credit scores.
"But what actually happened here in Marin County?" you may be asking, drumming your fingers on the counter. So, Ok, the local facts as we see them---------
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage-in-contract of 5 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows was up, and 6 down as of July 1. Greenbrae showed no change at slightly over 31% in contract. Corte Madera, at 35.29%, still the leader even though down substantially from last month's stellar performance of 47.73% in contract. Belvedere holding the low spot on the totem pole at only 5% in contract. Remember, many of these markets are relatively small, and a swing of a few units can have a dramatic impact on the percentage in contract number.
Single Family Homes (SFR) inventory down from 1308 to 1269 since last report. Percentage in contract down just slightly from 25.08% to 24.35% overall. Homes under $1million at 33.58% in contract, down less than half a point from last report. Homes in the $1million and up segments all showing reductions as follows:
$1million-$1.999 million down from 16.02% to 15.18%
$2million-$2.999 million down from 19,83% to 17.36%
$3million and up down from 8.40% to 7.76%
This in spite of anecdotes about high-end properties starting to move. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens next!
Average sold price of SFR's YTD at $1,054,594 vs $972,521 last year at this time. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93 vs. last year's 108 at the same time. 935 SFR's had sold as of July 6, 34% more than the 697 sold as of the same date in 2009. This percentage increase has been decelerating for a number of weeks now, since the Federal mortgage tax credits ended.
Good new is that according to CB MarketQuest, SFR accepted offers in June were 30.1% of inventory, the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. The June ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 91.8%, exceeded only (in 24 months) by December's figure of 116.3%.
Marin County Condominium inventory down slightly to 352 from 368 at last report. Overall percentage in contract also down from 33.42% to 32.10%, while condo's under $1million (all but 19 of the listings) also down from 35.16% to 33.63%. Average sold price YTD at $400,476 vs $365,807 this time last year, and DOM up slightly from 114 to 117 since June of '09. YTD condo units sold as of July 6 at 252 vs. '09 figure of 231, or up 9.1%. This also shows continued deceleration from the rushing-to-get-the-tax-break peak. Condo accepted offers as a percentage of inventory at 29.5% at the end of June, the highest in the 24 month period covered by the CB MarketQuest report. Accepted offers as a percentage of new listings, at 89% were 3rd highest in the 24 month period, behind November and December of '09. Important to remember that increasing sales prices may be an indication of the specific units sold as much as of overall price levels---- a phenomenon called "market mix".
Local offices still busy, with good numbers of open escrows, even though many buyers and sellers are taking their a summer vacation break. Traditionally, the local real estate business cools off a bit this time of year, then gets another bounce after Labor Day. Anyone's guess what will happen this year-----
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, June 28, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 6.25.10
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones down just under 3% for the week on continuing investor jitters about jobs, the economy, the Euro---- and now another concern has surfaced. Seems that "M3", a measure of the money supply that inclues a broad range of bank accounts, cash, and other assets, has been shrinking at a rate not seen since the Depression years, raising fears of deflation. Read the full article at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html
San Diego-based real estate reporting firm MDA DataQuick, in a report dated June 17 made the following observations about the Northern California real estate market:
* Bay Area housing units sold up 11% in May compared to the same period last year.
* Units sold in May up 18% from April. This compares to a historical April/May increase of 6.9%
* Sales of higher-priced homes increasing and the low end slowing, most likely due to tax credits and greater availability of jumbo loans helping the upper end and reduced pace of foreclosures moderating lower-priced sales activity
full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100617.aspx
Here in Marin, sales activity continues to be mixed. Agents reporting some open houses extremely well-attended, while others have few visitors. Varies by town, neighborhood, price range, and specific homes. Local offices busy, with lots of new open escrows, but many deals at significant discounts from listing prices. Multiple offers more common on well-priced homes but even so, sales prices not going very far, if at all over list price in most cases. Buyers' and Sellers' best asset in this market is a professional REALTOR experienced in their specific market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Active inventory up very slightly but mostly stable at 1308 units compared to 1294 at last report. Percentage in contract down at 25.08% overall, a balanced market. The under-$1million segment also down at 33.97%--- was 40% five weeks ago. $1-2million segment down as well, while the $2-3million and $3million and up segments both show modest increases. Year-to-date (YTD) units sold (June 22) still up, with 845 SFR's sold compared to 602, up 40.3% from the same period time last year--- deceleration of recent weeks continues with this drop from last report's 42%. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93, an improvement from 110 last year at this time.
Marin County Condo's active inventory at 368 and percentage in contract at 33.42%. Both figures relatively stable with small increases from the June 8 level of 365 units and 32.88% in contract. Average DOM at 117, up 3 days from last year's 114 at this time. YTD units sold at 229, up 11.17% from the 206 units sold by this time in '09 and down from last report's 13%.
Local real estate recovery definitely seems to be in progress but still sensitive to volatility of broader economic conditions. Buyers continue to be careful, looking for value. Sellers and their agents need to be realistic, sharp, and ready to respond to the demands of the market. Pricing, preparation, presentation, market awareness, marketing ability, and willingness to respond to local market conditions are keys to success.
more next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Dow Jones down just under 3% for the week on continuing investor jitters about jobs, the economy, the Euro---- and now another concern has surfaced. Seems that "M3", a measure of the money supply that inclues a broad range of bank accounts, cash, and other assets, has been shrinking at a rate not seen since the Depression years, raising fears of deflation. Read the full article at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html
San Diego-based real estate reporting firm MDA DataQuick, in a report dated June 17 made the following observations about the Northern California real estate market:
* Bay Area housing units sold up 11% in May compared to the same period last year.
* Units sold in May up 18% from April. This compares to a historical April/May increase of 6.9%
* Sales of higher-priced homes increasing and the low end slowing, most likely due to tax credits and greater availability of jumbo loans helping the upper end and reduced pace of foreclosures moderating lower-priced sales activity
full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100617.aspx
Here in Marin, sales activity continues to be mixed. Agents reporting some open houses extremely well-attended, while others have few visitors. Varies by town, neighborhood, price range, and specific homes. Local offices busy, with lots of new open escrows, but many deals at significant discounts from listing prices. Multiple offers more common on well-priced homes but even so, sales prices not going very far, if at all over list price in most cases. Buyers' and Sellers' best asset in this market is a professional REALTOR experienced in their specific market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Active inventory up very slightly but mostly stable at 1308 units compared to 1294 at last report. Percentage in contract down at 25.08% overall, a balanced market. The under-$1million segment also down at 33.97%--- was 40% five weeks ago. $1-2million segment down as well, while the $2-3million and $3million and up segments both show modest increases. Year-to-date (YTD) units sold (June 22) still up, with 845 SFR's sold compared to 602, up 40.3% from the same period time last year--- deceleration of recent weeks continues with this drop from last report's 42%. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93, an improvement from 110 last year at this time.
Marin County Condo's active inventory at 368 and percentage in contract at 33.42%. Both figures relatively stable with small increases from the June 8 level of 365 units and 32.88% in contract. Average DOM at 117, up 3 days from last year's 114 at this time. YTD units sold at 229, up 11.17% from the 206 units sold by this time in '09 and down from last report's 13%.
Local real estate recovery definitely seems to be in progress but still sensitive to volatility of broader economic conditions. Buyers continue to be careful, looking for value. Sellers and their agents need to be realistic, sharp, and ready to respond to the demands of the market. Pricing, preparation, presentation, market awareness, marketing ability, and willingness to respond to local market conditions are keys to success.
more next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, June 12, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 6.12.10
Hello Everyone,
Bumpy week for the U.S. economy. Jobs report showed only 41,000 new real jobs
after subtracting temporary hirings of Census Workers. Stock market reacted with extreme volatility to this and continuing concerns over the possibility that troubles with the Euro may spread to other countries. In the background, the BP disaster acting as a drag on people's spirits as they wonder how bad it will get before it is under control and what it will take to clean it up.
Included in this week's report are the recently added monthly Condo and Single Family Market Action Reports. If you haven't seen them yet, take a look. Also, the monthly City-by-City report showing the percentage in contract down in ten of thirteen listed Marin County cities and towns, up in two, and one, San Rafael with no change.
Marin real estate market sending mixed signals
Single Family Residences (SFR) percentage in contract down in all categories except for a very slight increase (about half a percentage point) in the $2-$3million dollar segment. Market segment under $1million still doing well at 35% in contract but continues to be quite price sensitive. One Central Marin home last week received 3 offers and still did not get to list price. Buyers looking for value. Average sold price up a bit from this time last year at $1,059,749 vs. $948,599, and days on market (DOM) at 94, down from111 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 757 as of June 8, vs. last year's 531, an increase of 42%. Keep in mind, the figure was 46% two weeks ago, so actually represents a slight decline. Having said that, CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 100% of new listings for May. Report also shows a 5.6 month supply of inventory for SFR's, the lowest since December, when many sellers typically take their homes off the market for the Holidays. Active SFR inventory at 1,053 units at the end of May vs. last year's 1,267.
Condominiums percentage in contract down in all categories too. The under- $1million segment, representing all but a handfull of units listed for sale, hanging in there at 34.59% in contract. Little if any room for sellers to push price in this market either. Average sold price also up a bit from this time last year at $405,528 vs. $364,733. Days on market (DOM) at 117, up just a bit from 114 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 214 as of June 8, vs. last year's 189, an increase of 13%. This also represents a slight decline from the 13.3% figure in our last report so market may be losing a bit of momentum here too. CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 91.4 of new listings for May and a 5.7 month supply of inventory for Condo's, again, the best figures since December. Active Condo inventory at 285 units at the end of May vs. last year's 328.
(Note: discrepancy between figures from MLS and MarketQuest due to the difference in the way the two organizations count active listings. Figures consistent within reports)
Local real estate offices quite active with a steady stream of new open escrows. Agents and managers optimistic. In spite of all the ups and downs, the market seems to be improving. Most deals still being negotiated carefully between buyers and sellers. Buyers not throwing money at deals even in multiple offer situations. They are not inclined to do so, and the banks won't let them. Appraisal guidelines continue to be strict. Buyers are buying but again, they are buying value. Buyers and sellers alike benefit from the experience and market knowledge of local REALTORS, familiar with their specific market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Bumpy week for the U.S. economy. Jobs report showed only 41,000 new real jobs
after subtracting temporary hirings of Census Workers. Stock market reacted with extreme volatility to this and continuing concerns over the possibility that troubles with the Euro may spread to other countries. In the background, the BP disaster acting as a drag on people's spirits as they wonder how bad it will get before it is under control and what it will take to clean it up.
Included in this week's report are the recently added monthly Condo and Single Family Market Action Reports. If you haven't seen them yet, take a look. Also, the monthly City-by-City report showing the percentage in contract down in ten of thirteen listed Marin County cities and towns, up in two, and one, San Rafael with no change.
Marin real estate market sending mixed signals
Single Family Residences (SFR) percentage in contract down in all categories except for a very slight increase (about half a percentage point) in the $2-$3million dollar segment. Market segment under $1million still doing well at 35% in contract but continues to be quite price sensitive. One Central Marin home last week received 3 offers and still did not get to list price. Buyers looking for value. Average sold price up a bit from this time last year at $1,059,749 vs. $948,599, and days on market (DOM) at 94, down from111 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 757 as of June 8, vs. last year's 531, an increase of 42%. Keep in mind, the figure was 46% two weeks ago, so actually represents a slight decline. Having said that, CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 100% of new listings for May. Report also shows a 5.6 month supply of inventory for SFR's, the lowest since December, when many sellers typically take their homes off the market for the Holidays. Active SFR inventory at 1,053 units at the end of May vs. last year's 1,267.
Condominiums percentage in contract down in all categories too. The under- $1million segment, representing all but a handfull of units listed for sale, hanging in there at 34.59% in contract. Little if any room for sellers to push price in this market either. Average sold price also up a bit from this time last year at $405,528 vs. $364,733. Days on market (DOM) at 117, up just a bit from 114 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 214 as of June 8, vs. last year's 189, an increase of 13%. This also represents a slight decline from the 13.3% figure in our last report so market may be losing a bit of momentum here too. CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 91.4 of new listings for May and a 5.7 month supply of inventory for Condo's, again, the best figures since December. Active Condo inventory at 285 units at the end of May vs. last year's 328.
(Note: discrepancy between figures from MLS and MarketQuest due to the difference in the way the two organizations count active listings. Figures consistent within reports)
Local real estate offices quite active with a steady stream of new open escrows. Agents and managers optimistic. In spite of all the ups and downs, the market seems to be improving. Most deals still being negotiated carefully between buyers and sellers. Buyers not throwing money at deals even in multiple offer situations. They are not inclined to do so, and the banks won't let them. Appraisal guidelines continue to be strict. Buyers are buying but again, they are buying value. Buyers and sellers alike benefit from the experience and market knowledge of local REALTORS, familiar with their specific market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, May 30, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.28.2010
Hello Everyone,
Another rough week on Wall Street, with the Dow closing below 10,000 at one point for the first time in several months and fluctuating several hundred points during daytime trading. Investors wary of more trouble with the Euro. More talk about a possible double-dip housing recession. MSNBC, in a May 25 article, quotes Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst: "It looks like a double-dip already----- There is a very real possibility of some more decline". Read the full article at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37333160/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/
Also, read the Robert Shiller interview at
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_15/b4173013214814.htm
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in an article dated May 20 notes that Bay Area real estate sales (units sold) were about 1.9% lower in April than in the corresponding period last year but questions whether some of the decline might be attributable to sales that were pushed into May or June by tax credits. Article goes on to say "For months we've seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area." The article also notes an almost 22 percent median Bay Area home price increase from April of 2009 which the authors attribute to more high-end activity, better (but still not good) availability of "jumbo" financing, and a decline in foreclosure activity. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100520.aspx
Here in Marin County, real estate agents I have spoken with are still upbeat about the local housing market. Interest rates remain favorable. Jumbo availability has eased up a bit. Inventory is increasing slightly, following seasonal trends and showing seller willingness to participate in the current market. Buyers are out and about and making offers on desirable, well-priced homes. Local real estate offices experiencing an increase in business which may be tax stimulus induced, but we will have to wait and see. More desirable properties attracting multiple offers but pricing not racing out of control. Even multiple offers often not that far over asking price, if at all. Buyers very prudent and lenders backstopping them with stringent appraisals. Lender requests for appraisal reviews or even second appraisals not uncommon.
Overall, Marin County market conditions seem much improved from a year ago. Single Family YTD units sold at 639 as of 5.25.10, compared to 440 on the same date last year--- represents a 45% increase. Average YTD SFR list price at $1,112,706 and average sold at $1,057,652 compared to $1,010,384 and $948,226 for the same period last year. SFR days on market on a YTD basis improved from 110 in May of '09 to 96 as of 5.25.10.
Condo's up too but much less dramatic at 187 units sold by May 25 compared to last year's 165, a 13% increase. Average YTD condo prices as of 5.25.10 at $415,311 list price vs. $406,558 sold price. Compares to $372,936 list price and $359,709 sold price during the same period last year. Days on market for Condo's up slightly from 115 to 122.
Marin County housing market still extremely price-sensitive, with attractively priced and presented homes in desirable locations getting lots of action. Overpriced,poorly-presented homes often sitting for extended periods with multiple price reductions. Local professional REALTORS who know your neighborhood an invaluable source of information in the current environment.
More next time-------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
htto://www.fredanlyan.com
Another rough week on Wall Street, with the Dow closing below 10,000 at one point for the first time in several months and fluctuating several hundred points during daytime trading. Investors wary of more trouble with the Euro. More talk about a possible double-dip housing recession. MSNBC, in a May 25 article, quotes Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst: "It looks like a double-dip already----- There is a very real possibility of some more decline". Read the full article at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37333160/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/
Also, read the Robert Shiller interview at
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_15/b4173013214814.htm
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in an article dated May 20 notes that Bay Area real estate sales (units sold) were about 1.9% lower in April than in the corresponding period last year but questions whether some of the decline might be attributable to sales that were pushed into May or June by tax credits. Article goes on to say "For months we've seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area." The article also notes an almost 22 percent median Bay Area home price increase from April of 2009 which the authors attribute to more high-end activity, better (but still not good) availability of "jumbo" financing, and a decline in foreclosure activity. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100520.aspx
Here in Marin County, real estate agents I have spoken with are still upbeat about the local housing market. Interest rates remain favorable. Jumbo availability has eased up a bit. Inventory is increasing slightly, following seasonal trends and showing seller willingness to participate in the current market. Buyers are out and about and making offers on desirable, well-priced homes. Local real estate offices experiencing an increase in business which may be tax stimulus induced, but we will have to wait and see. More desirable properties attracting multiple offers but pricing not racing out of control. Even multiple offers often not that far over asking price, if at all. Buyers very prudent and lenders backstopping them with stringent appraisals. Lender requests for appraisal reviews or even second appraisals not uncommon.
Overall, Marin County market conditions seem much improved from a year ago. Single Family YTD units sold at 639 as of 5.25.10, compared to 440 on the same date last year--- represents a 45% increase. Average YTD SFR list price at $1,112,706 and average sold at $1,057,652 compared to $1,010,384 and $948,226 for the same period last year. SFR days on market on a YTD basis improved from 110 in May of '09 to 96 as of 5.25.10.
Condo's up too but much less dramatic at 187 units sold by May 25 compared to last year's 165, a 13% increase. Average YTD condo prices as of 5.25.10 at $415,311 list price vs. $406,558 sold price. Compares to $372,936 list price and $359,709 sold price during the same period last year. Days on market for Condo's up slightly from 115 to 122.
Marin County housing market still extremely price-sensitive, with attractively priced and presented homes in desirable locations getting lots of action. Overpriced,poorly-presented homes often sitting for extended periods with multiple price reductions. Local professional REALTORS who know your neighborhood an invaluable source of information in the current environment.
More next time-------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
htto://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, May 14, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.14.10
Hello Everyone,
Global stock and currency markets continue to be skittish over fears about Greek debt and the future of the Euro. Oil prices down, stock market down, dollar up. Situation could and does change minute by minute but in the long run, the trend has been positive and seems likely to continue in a positive direction.
Marin County Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory increased slightly to 1252 as of May 11, about 50 more units than at last report and in the same general ballpark as the last two years at this time. Percentage of SFR's in contract up just about a percentage point each at 30.19% overall, 39.5% for homes under $1million, and 20.06% for homes between $1million and $2million. Homes between $2million and $3million dropped about 3/4 of a point to 18.75%, while homes above $3million dropped about 1.8 points to 15.32% in contract. YTD SFR sales at 555 units vs 380 at the same time last year, or up 46%. This compares to an increase of 55% at last report indicating momentum has slowed. Whether this is temporary or a trend resulting from the end of the government homebuyer tax credits remains to be seen. Average SFR list price $1,101,894 compared to $1,009,791 at the same time last year. Average sold price $1,045,650 compared to $953,292. This is not necessarily an indication that housing prices have increased because figures represent "market mix" as well as price levels. Average days on market 100 vs. 112 in May of '09, a slight improvement.
Condominium inventory actually down slightly at 357 units vs.367 at last report. Compares to 328 in April of '09 and 412 in '08 (CB MarketQuest). YTD units sold as of 5.11.10 at 168 vs. 145 at the same time last year, an increase of 15.86%. This is up from the 10% increase indicated at our last report and may or may not signal a trend. More information on this in coming weeks. Average condo list price at $424,938 vs. $356,147 at the same time last year, while average sold price at $415,675 compared to '09's $343,811 (same "market mix" comments apply as for SFR's above). Average DOM at 124 compared to 112 in May of '09.
Marin real estate market continues to offer opportunity for buyers, with excellent prices and mortgages still available at attractive rates. Rules for qualifying stricter than in the past but those with good credit and income taking advantage of this rare opportunity to buy a Marin County home at a more affordable price than in the recent past. Local professional REALTORS familiar with buyers' area(s) of interest still the best source of information on price, location, condition, financing, etc. They see a lot of homes every week. Agents I have spoken with still feeling positive about market activity and direction in the County and see significant improvement over last year. Local market seems poised for continued gradual improvement in the coming months. Lots of excellent deals still available on upper-end properties, especially for cash buyers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Global stock and currency markets continue to be skittish over fears about Greek debt and the future of the Euro. Oil prices down, stock market down, dollar up. Situation could and does change minute by minute but in the long run, the trend has been positive and seems likely to continue in a positive direction.
Marin County Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory increased slightly to 1252 as of May 11, about 50 more units than at last report and in the same general ballpark as the last two years at this time. Percentage of SFR's in contract up just about a percentage point each at 30.19% overall, 39.5% for homes under $1million, and 20.06% for homes between $1million and $2million. Homes between $2million and $3million dropped about 3/4 of a point to 18.75%, while homes above $3million dropped about 1.8 points to 15.32% in contract. YTD SFR sales at 555 units vs 380 at the same time last year, or up 46%. This compares to an increase of 55% at last report indicating momentum has slowed. Whether this is temporary or a trend resulting from the end of the government homebuyer tax credits remains to be seen. Average SFR list price $1,101,894 compared to $1,009,791 at the same time last year. Average sold price $1,045,650 compared to $953,292. This is not necessarily an indication that housing prices have increased because figures represent "market mix" as well as price levels. Average days on market 100 vs. 112 in May of '09, a slight improvement.
Condominium inventory actually down slightly at 357 units vs.367 at last report. Compares to 328 in April of '09 and 412 in '08 (CB MarketQuest). YTD units sold as of 5.11.10 at 168 vs. 145 at the same time last year, an increase of 15.86%. This is up from the 10% increase indicated at our last report and may or may not signal a trend. More information on this in coming weeks. Average condo list price at $424,938 vs. $356,147 at the same time last year, while average sold price at $415,675 compared to '09's $343,811 (same "market mix" comments apply as for SFR's above). Average DOM at 124 compared to 112 in May of '09.
Marin real estate market continues to offer opportunity for buyers, with excellent prices and mortgages still available at attractive rates. Rules for qualifying stricter than in the past but those with good credit and income taking advantage of this rare opportunity to buy a Marin County home at a more affordable price than in the recent past. Local professional REALTORS familiar with buyers' area(s) of interest still the best source of information on price, location, condition, financing, etc. They see a lot of homes every week. Agents I have spoken with still feeling positive about market activity and direction in the County and see significant improvement over last year. Local market seems poised for continued gradual improvement in the coming months. Lots of excellent deals still available on upper-end properties, especially for cash buyers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.2.10
Hello Everyone,
Mood on the street and around town is upbeat. Most REALTORS I have spoken with believe that the Marin County real estate market is picking up. Sellers are better educated about current values and know that they have to price for the market if they want to sell. Plenty of qualified buyers competing for a limited amount of inventory make it their business to know the market and refuse to overpay. Lenders backing them up with strict appraisal guidelines, appraisal reviews, and requests for multiple appraisals so prices have to be real. Interest rates still excellent. Stock Market and consumer confidence recovering and the FED holding the line on interest rates last week with a statement that they intend to continue to do so for an extended period. "Jumbo" loans still difficult to obtain with lots of hoops for buyers to jump, vault, or squeeze themselves through. Well-qualified buyers with good income, credit, assets, reserves can qualify but the process is time-consuming. Upper end of the market continues to be sluggish as a result. Cash is king, with all-cash offers holding a decided edge over buyers who need to obtain loans, particularly on higher-priced homes.
City by City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 listed Marin cities and towns with percentage in contract up, and 6 down. No dramatic moves. Novato in first place, gaining since last month and now at 45.8% in contract. Novato real estate still very sensitive to price in spite of this due to continued REO and short-sale activity. Sausalito still at the bottom of the heap with only 17.89% in contract, but significantly better than last month's 10.2%.
Momentum in YTD units sold seems to be slowing, with SFR's still up about 55% from this period last year at 479 vs. 308. Condo YTD units sold at 143 vs. 130 last year at the same time, or up 10%. With the expiration of the Federal tax credit, remains to be seen whether the market is still strong enough (assisted by the California state tax credit) to continue on its upward course.
Signs of strength in the market include the high ratio of accepted offers to new listings in both the SFR and Condo market------ 88.5% and 95.1% respectively.
CB MarketQuest Market Action Report for April (attached) just out shows SFR's in a strong position with prices up, Days on Market down. Condo's a bit more challenging. See reports for full information.
Opportunities abound, particularly in the upper end of the market where qualified buyers continue to get great deals. Good prices and good rates will probably continue for a while, but not forever. Now is a great time to buy. Check with a professional REALTOR experienced in the specific area of interest.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Mood on the street and around town is upbeat. Most REALTORS I have spoken with believe that the Marin County real estate market is picking up. Sellers are better educated about current values and know that they have to price for the market if they want to sell. Plenty of qualified buyers competing for a limited amount of inventory make it their business to know the market and refuse to overpay. Lenders backing them up with strict appraisal guidelines, appraisal reviews, and requests for multiple appraisals so prices have to be real. Interest rates still excellent. Stock Market and consumer confidence recovering and the FED holding the line on interest rates last week with a statement that they intend to continue to do so for an extended period. "Jumbo" loans still difficult to obtain with lots of hoops for buyers to jump, vault, or squeeze themselves through. Well-qualified buyers with good income, credit, assets, reserves can qualify but the process is time-consuming. Upper end of the market continues to be sluggish as a result. Cash is king, with all-cash offers holding a decided edge over buyers who need to obtain loans, particularly on higher-priced homes.
City by City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 listed Marin cities and towns with percentage in contract up, and 6 down. No dramatic moves. Novato in first place, gaining since last month and now at 45.8% in contract. Novato real estate still very sensitive to price in spite of this due to continued REO and short-sale activity. Sausalito still at the bottom of the heap with only 17.89% in contract, but significantly better than last month's 10.2%.
Momentum in YTD units sold seems to be slowing, with SFR's still up about 55% from this period last year at 479 vs. 308. Condo YTD units sold at 143 vs. 130 last year at the same time, or up 10%. With the expiration of the Federal tax credit, remains to be seen whether the market is still strong enough (assisted by the California state tax credit) to continue on its upward course.
Signs of strength in the market include the high ratio of accepted offers to new listings in both the SFR and Condo market------ 88.5% and 95.1% respectively.
CB MarketQuest Market Action Report for April (attached) just out shows SFR's in a strong position with prices up, Days on Market down. Condo's a bit more challenging. See reports for full information.
Opportunities abound, particularly in the upper end of the market where qualified buyers continue to get great deals. Good prices and good rates will probably continue for a while, but not forever. Now is a great time to buy. Check with a professional REALTOR experienced in the specific area of interest.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, April 18, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate. 4.17.10
Hello Everyone,
La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, in an April 15 article headlined
"Bay Area March home sales and median price rise above prior month and ‘09"
noted that although Bay Area median sales prices have risen for 6 straight months, the $380,000 figure for March was still more than 42% below the high of $665K reached in the summer of 2007. The article called the increase a "statistical quirk", citing a decreasing percentage of foreclosure sales and increasing sales in medium to high-priced neighborhoods but noting that the upper end is still constrained by a "dysfunctional" jumbo loan market and a lack of the adjustable rate mortgages upon which upper-end sales have historically depended. The article also noted over 17% of Bay Area homes being purchased by absentee buyers "mostly investors", and that all-cash sales accounted for almost 25% of Bay Area home sales in March. Full text of article
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory at 1114 vs. 1032 two weeks ago, up about 10% and percentage in contract down a bit, at 29.9% overall vs 31% at last report. SFR's under $1million still leading the market with 37.5% of listed homes in contract, down just a bit from 40% two weeks ago and significantly lower than the early- February level of 46%, but still strong. YTD SFR units sold up 55% on April 13 compared to '09's 257 at the same time, continuing their recent red-hot trend. Average sales price at $1,021,919 vs. $927,629 at the same time last year.
Condo inventory up only 20 units since last report, from 325 to 345 and percentage in contract at 40% on April 13, compared to 36.7% two weeks ago. YTD units sold at 120 vs. 111 at the same time last year, an increase of about 8%. Average sold price at $409,234 vs. 2009's $326,182 at the same time.
Marin County real estate market active, with lots of buyers and their agents out and about. Open houses well-attended and well-priced, well-prepared, well-marketed homes selling at a brisk pace. Reality is that the market is still very price-sensitive with even multiple-offer situations often not going very far over asking price. Pushing the pricing envelope usually results in homes that sit on the market and either do not sell or sell for less than they would have if priced correctly from the start and then only after a long period of marketing and multiple price reductions. Experienced professional REALTORS familiar with your local area are an invaluable source of information in this market. They often see many homes each week and track the results, providing an important frame of reference.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, in an April 15 article headlined
"Bay Area March home sales and median price rise above prior month and ‘09"
noted that although Bay Area median sales prices have risen for 6 straight months, the $380,000 figure for March was still more than 42% below the high of $665K reached in the summer of 2007. The article called the increase a "statistical quirk", citing a decreasing percentage of foreclosure sales and increasing sales in medium to high-priced neighborhoods but noting that the upper end is still constrained by a "dysfunctional" jumbo loan market and a lack of the adjustable rate mortgages upon which upper-end sales have historically depended. The article also noted over 17% of Bay Area homes being purchased by absentee buyers "mostly investors", and that all-cash sales accounted for almost 25% of Bay Area home sales in March. Full text of article
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory at 1114 vs. 1032 two weeks ago, up about 10% and percentage in contract down a bit, at 29.9% overall vs 31% at last report. SFR's under $1million still leading the market with 37.5% of listed homes in contract, down just a bit from 40% two weeks ago and significantly lower than the early- February level of 46%, but still strong. YTD SFR units sold up 55% on April 13 compared to '09's 257 at the same time, continuing their recent red-hot trend. Average sales price at $1,021,919 vs. $927,629 at the same time last year.
Condo inventory up only 20 units since last report, from 325 to 345 and percentage in contract at 40% on April 13, compared to 36.7% two weeks ago. YTD units sold at 120 vs. 111 at the same time last year, an increase of about 8%. Average sold price at $409,234 vs. 2009's $326,182 at the same time.
Marin County real estate market active, with lots of buyers and their agents out and about. Open houses well-attended and well-priced, well-prepared, well-marketed homes selling at a brisk pace. Reality is that the market is still very price-sensitive with even multiple-offer situations often not going very far over asking price. Pushing the pricing envelope usually results in homes that sit on the market and either do not sell or sell for less than they would have if priced correctly from the start and then only after a long period of marketing and multiple price reductions. Experienced professional REALTORS familiar with your local area are an invaluable source of information in this market. They often see many homes each week and track the results, providing an important frame of reference.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monday, March 22, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 3.21.10
Hello Everyone,
La Jolla, Ca-based MDA DataQuick, in a March 18 article, noted that Bay Area home sales were up from a month ago, but down slightly from February of '09. The Marin IJ used some of that information for their own article the same day, but with a local emphasis. For a good discussion of Bay Area real estate prospects for the coming months, see the two articles using these links.
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100318.aspx
http://www.marinij.com/marinrealestate/ci_14701247
Here in Marin, Single Family Residence (SFR) Year To Date sales (YTD) were 259 units as of March 16. This compares to 161 on the same date a year ago, or a very impressive 60% increase! Average list price was $1,069,335 compared to $904,674 a year ago while average sales price was $1,003,205 compared to $846,197 in '09.
Condominium sales also up from the year-ago YTD figure of 78 to 84 on March 16, a 6% increase. Not dramatic, but headed in the right direction. Condo average list price YTD (March 16) was $423,407 vs. $302,542 at the same time last year. The average YTD sold price of $412,718 was substantially ahead of the '09 YTD figure of $295,504.
Sellers need to be aware that even though sales and sales prices are up, the local market is extremely sensitive to price. Part of the increase in prices is the result of fewer low-priced REO transactions rather than rising values. Correct pricing is critical, as are preparation, presentation, marketing. Pricing adjustments should be made promptly based on market feedback. No offers? No showings? No previews by agents? Low turnout at open houses? Take a close look at the factors mentioned above--- especially price. Then act quickly! It is critical to have the advice of a professional real estate agent experienced in the local market---and important to make use of the information that is offered!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
La Jolla, Ca-based MDA DataQuick, in a March 18 article, noted that Bay Area home sales were up from a month ago, but down slightly from February of '09. The Marin IJ used some of that information for their own article the same day, but with a local emphasis. For a good discussion of Bay Area real estate prospects for the coming months, see the two articles using these links.
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100318.aspx
http://www.marinij.com/marinrealestate/ci_14701247
Here in Marin, Single Family Residence (SFR) Year To Date sales (YTD) were 259 units as of March 16. This compares to 161 on the same date a year ago, or a very impressive 60% increase! Average list price was $1,069,335 compared to $904,674 a year ago while average sales price was $1,003,205 compared to $846,197 in '09.
Condominium sales also up from the year-ago YTD figure of 78 to 84 on March 16, a 6% increase. Not dramatic, but headed in the right direction. Condo average list price YTD (March 16) was $423,407 vs. $302,542 at the same time last year. The average YTD sold price of $412,718 was substantially ahead of the '09 YTD figure of $295,504.
Sellers need to be aware that even though sales and sales prices are up, the local market is extremely sensitive to price. Part of the increase in prices is the result of fewer low-priced REO transactions rather than rising values. Correct pricing is critical, as are preparation, presentation, marketing. Pricing adjustments should be made promptly based on market feedback. No offers? No showings? No previews by agents? Low turnout at open houses? Take a close look at the factors mentioned above--- especially price. Then act quickly! It is critical to have the advice of a professional real estate agent experienced in the local market---and important to make use of the information that is offered!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, February 21, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 2.16.10
Hello Everyone,
The Federal Reserve, in an unexpected move, and one some think is premature, increased the Discount Rate Friday by .25%. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to appear before the House and Senate in the coming week to explain the policy. Speculation is that with the jobless rate still in the area of 10% there will not be much further tightening in the near future, but that remains to be seen. Interesting article at: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j_JKlWJuvyH9o86cq2-UrJdVTAZA
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in a February 18 article headlined "Bay Area home sales fall; median price up from last year, down from December" notes the number of Bay Area homes sold in January was below January of 2009, even though the median price was up. Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100218.aspx
Marin County, however, bucking the trend, with 144 Single Family Residences (SFR) sold to Feb. 16, as opposed to 98 during the same perior in '09, a 46.9% increase. Condo units sold up too, though less spectacular at 50 in 2010 vs. 47 in '09 or 6.3% more. Average sold prices up too, with SFR avg. sold price for the period at $1,037,231 vs. $846,678 in '09 and condo avg. sold price at $400,424 for 2010 vs. $287,949 for the same '09 dates. Caution is advised in interpreting these results. With a small sample size this early in the year, "market mix" can have a greater effect on the figures. Still, the numbers are at least interesting and bear watching.
Inventory still low, with 792 SFR's being actively marketed on MLS as of 2.16. This compares to 952 units at the end of February, '09. On February 16, 33.8% of active SFR units were in contract in all price ranges. The under-$1million price range still incredibly hot, with 46.4% of listed units in contract while at the upper end, $3million-plus properties still slow movers at only 7.25% in contract-- a tremendous opportunity for upper-end buyers.
Condominium inventory at 285 units on 2.16.2010 vs 312 at the end of Feb. '09. Over 39% of these were in contract. Condo's under $1million, the majority of the market, at 41.6% in contract.
Early results encouraging. Economy still iffy. Buyers still jittery. I will go out on a limb and predict a brighter 2010 for real estate. We shall see.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
The Federal Reserve, in an unexpected move, and one some think is premature, increased the Discount Rate Friday by .25%. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to appear before the House and Senate in the coming week to explain the policy. Speculation is that with the jobless rate still in the area of 10% there will not be much further tightening in the near future, but that remains to be seen. Interesting article at: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j_JKlWJuvyH9o86cq2-UrJdVTAZA
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in a February 18 article headlined "Bay Area home sales fall; median price up from last year, down from December" notes the number of Bay Area homes sold in January was below January of 2009, even though the median price was up. Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100218.aspx
Marin County, however, bucking the trend, with 144 Single Family Residences (SFR) sold to Feb. 16, as opposed to 98 during the same perior in '09, a 46.9% increase. Condo units sold up too, though less spectacular at 50 in 2010 vs. 47 in '09 or 6.3% more. Average sold prices up too, with SFR avg. sold price for the period at $1,037,231 vs. $846,678 in '09 and condo avg. sold price at $400,424 for 2010 vs. $287,949 for the same '09 dates. Caution is advised in interpreting these results. With a small sample size this early in the year, "market mix" can have a greater effect on the figures. Still, the numbers are at least interesting and bear watching.
Inventory still low, with 792 SFR's being actively marketed on MLS as of 2.16. This compares to 952 units at the end of February, '09. On February 16, 33.8% of active SFR units were in contract in all price ranges. The under-$1million price range still incredibly hot, with 46.4% of listed units in contract while at the upper end, $3million-plus properties still slow movers at only 7.25% in contract-- a tremendous opportunity for upper-end buyers.
Condominium inventory at 285 units on 2.16.2010 vs 312 at the end of Feb. '09. Over 39% of these were in contract. Condo's under $1million, the majority of the market, at 41.6% in contract.
Early results encouraging. Economy still iffy. Buyers still jittery. I will go out on a limb and predict a brighter 2010 for real estate. We shall see.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, January 24, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 1.24.2010
Hello Everyone,
Front page article in the 1.22.10 Marin IJ exclaims "Home sales, median price up". At the same time stocks in the Dow take a 200 point one-day dive on fears about proposed new bank regulations as well as concern about Fed Chairman Bernanke's re-appointment problems. Investors want to be optimistic but still cautious, skittish, reacting to news and rumors by selling stocks. Mortgage rates improved slightly on the poor financial news.
A January 21 article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick titled "Bay Area home sales strongest in three years" noted that December's Bay Area sales of 7,828 units were the month's highest since 8,372 were sold in December of '06. Article goes on to say that home sales are still skewed towards the low end of the market, a fact the writers attribute to tax incentives and sales of distressed properties. Also notes that lender reluctance currently the most significant obstacle to further improvement in the Bay Area housing market. States that December Bay Area foreclosure re-sales made up about 32% of re-sale activity compared to 48% in Dec of '08 and the high of 52% in Feb, '09. Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100121.aspx
Here in Marin County, YTD unit sales of single family residences (SFR) were 48 as of January 19, up 17% over the 41 units sold in the same period last year, while condo's unit sales were down 5.5% at 17 vs. 09's 18 during the same period. Average list and sold prices up for both categories of housing showing significant increases but this may be due to the as yet small number of sales, and therefore subject to change as the year continues.
Inventory for both condo's and SFR's beginning to increase slightly, a normal trend for this time of year as sellers who waited out the Holidays bring their properties to market or place them back on the market after temporarily withdrawing them. County-wide, the under-$1million market continues to be most active by far, with 45.75% of SFR's and 44.5% of condo's in the price range in contract. Upper end of the market still sluggish, largely due to difficulty in obtaining "jumbo" loans. Buyers with cash continuing to pick up great deals. Varies by city/town, neighborhood, etc. See last City-by-City report for details (attached again for convenience).
Many feel the local market has bottomed out and is on the upswing. Many buyers shopping for property before rates and prices go up. Experienced local REALTORS still the best source of information and assistance.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Front page article in the 1.22.10 Marin IJ exclaims "Home sales, median price up". At the same time stocks in the Dow take a 200 point one-day dive on fears about proposed new bank regulations as well as concern about Fed Chairman Bernanke's re-appointment problems. Investors want to be optimistic but still cautious, skittish, reacting to news and rumors by selling stocks. Mortgage rates improved slightly on the poor financial news.
A January 21 article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick titled "Bay Area home sales strongest in three years" noted that December's Bay Area sales of 7,828 units were the month's highest since 8,372 were sold in December of '06. Article goes on to say that home sales are still skewed towards the low end of the market, a fact the writers attribute to tax incentives and sales of distressed properties. Also notes that lender reluctance currently the most significant obstacle to further improvement in the Bay Area housing market. States that December Bay Area foreclosure re-sales made up about 32% of re-sale activity compared to 48% in Dec of '08 and the high of 52% in Feb, '09. Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100121.aspx
Here in Marin County, YTD unit sales of single family residences (SFR) were 48 as of January 19, up 17% over the 41 units sold in the same period last year, while condo's unit sales were down 5.5% at 17 vs. 09's 18 during the same period. Average list and sold prices up for both categories of housing showing significant increases but this may be due to the as yet small number of sales, and therefore subject to change as the year continues.
Inventory for both condo's and SFR's beginning to increase slightly, a normal trend for this time of year as sellers who waited out the Holidays bring their properties to market or place them back on the market after temporarily withdrawing them. County-wide, the under-$1million market continues to be most active by far, with 45.75% of SFR's and 44.5% of condo's in the price range in contract. Upper end of the market still sluggish, largely due to difficulty in obtaining "jumbo" loans. Buyers with cash continuing to pick up great deals. Varies by city/town, neighborhood, etc. See last City-by-City report for details (attached again for convenience).
Many feel the local market has bottomed out and is on the upswing. Many buyers shopping for property before rates and prices go up. Experienced local REALTORS still the best source of information and assistance.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 1.10.2010
Hello Everyone,
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2010!
Emerging from the traditionally quiet period of the year (regarding real estate, that is), we see that is has not been all that quiet. Numbers of accepted offers for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums were double or more than in the same period in the last two years. Months Supply of Inventory at the end of December was 3.5 for SFR's and 4.1 for Condo's, lowest in over two years. Total SFR units sold finished 2009 at 1656, 5.5% more than 2008. Condo's at 497 sold for the year down just 2% from the year-ago figure. Some of this activity, no doubt, due to buyers desire to get taxpayer credits while they last and to take advantage of historically low interest rates which are bound to go up sooner or later. The question is when. Will the Fed start to raise interest rates while employment is still at 10% +? Is there another round of foreclosures coming that will depress housing prices further. As the toy crystal ball I had as a child was fond of saying: "answer hazy, ask again later". One thing is for sure. Buyer taxpayer credits will end, and interest rates will eventually rise. Prices and interest rates are excellent now. Many think this is a great time to buy. Time will tell.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract down in 5 Marin cities and towns, up in 7, and essentially unchanged in one (San Rafael, 37%). Belvedere lowest at 14.29% in contract, even after a 2 point rise, while Fairfax has the top spot at 59%, and still-hot Novato comes in a close 2nd at 53.6%. Pricing still critical in all Marin County markets, with overpriced listings sitting on the market and eventually withdrawn, cancelled, or selling for significantly less than properties "priced right" from the beginning. No time to push the envelope or test the market. Pricing, preparation, and presentation still critical factors in listing and selling a home. Sellers advised to seek the advice of experienced local REALTORS who know the market.
Market Action Report for both SFR's and Condo's attached again this month. Please take a look and let me know if you like these reports and find them useful.
2010 promises to be an interesting, and perhaps a pivotal year for real estate. It will be interesting to see what happens.
More later---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2010!
Emerging from the traditionally quiet period of the year (regarding real estate, that is), we see that is has not been all that quiet. Numbers of accepted offers for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums were double or more than in the same period in the last two years. Months Supply of Inventory at the end of December was 3.5 for SFR's and 4.1 for Condo's, lowest in over two years. Total SFR units sold finished 2009 at 1656, 5.5% more than 2008. Condo's at 497 sold for the year down just 2% from the year-ago figure. Some of this activity, no doubt, due to buyers desire to get taxpayer credits while they last and to take advantage of historically low interest rates which are bound to go up sooner or later. The question is when. Will the Fed start to raise interest rates while employment is still at 10% +? Is there another round of foreclosures coming that will depress housing prices further. As the toy crystal ball I had as a child was fond of saying: "answer hazy, ask again later". One thing is for sure. Buyer taxpayer credits will end, and interest rates will eventually rise. Prices and interest rates are excellent now. Many think this is a great time to buy. Time will tell.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract down in 5 Marin cities and towns, up in 7, and essentially unchanged in one (San Rafael, 37%). Belvedere lowest at 14.29% in contract, even after a 2 point rise, while Fairfax has the top spot at 59%, and still-hot Novato comes in a close 2nd at 53.6%. Pricing still critical in all Marin County markets, with overpriced listings sitting on the market and eventually withdrawn, cancelled, or selling for significantly less than properties "priced right" from the beginning. No time to push the envelope or test the market. Pricing, preparation, and presentation still critical factors in listing and selling a home. Sellers advised to seek the advice of experienced local REALTORS who know the market.
Market Action Report for both SFR's and Condo's attached again this month. Please take a look and let me know if you like these reports and find them useful.
2010 promises to be an interesting, and perhaps a pivotal year for real estate. It will be interesting to see what happens.
More later---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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