Hello Everyone,
As we predicted at the beginning of the month, post-Labor Day housing inventory did take a bit of a jump this week, with a 55 unit increase in Single Family Residence (SFR) listings, bringing the new total to 1284. Condo listings up only marginally with a slim 4 unit increase from 358 to 362. Percentage in contract generally down as well.
On September 15, 22.5% of SFR's were in contract in all price ranges compared to 23.7% on September 1. SFR's under $1 million slipped a bit too, from 31.78% in contract on 9/1 to 29.54% on 9/15. Still in what we have traditionally termed "sellers market" territory, though this expression has limited utility in our current, critically price-sensitive market. The $1million to $1.99 million SFR segment a pleasant surprise with an increase from 16.7% to 17.05% in contract. YTD SFR unit sales up 225 compared to the same time last year, with 1286 SFR units sold in the County as of 9/15, a 21.2% increase over the same time last year. This percentage increase has been eroding for some time now, since losing momentum from the federal homebuyer tax credits, which expired at the end of April. Average listing price or $1,096,206 and average sold price of $1,046,473 remain up from last year's $1,041.956 and $986,458. Some of this increase due to price increases, but a substantial amount due to fewer foreclosures as a percentage of total sales.
Condo inventory up only slightly, as mentioned earlier. Of all condo units listed for sale on 9/15, 28.4% were in contract, roughly unchanged from the 28.7% in contract on September 1. As of 9.15, YTD condo units sold stood at 340 compared to the year-ago figure of 322. The 18 unit difference represents a 5.6% increase that has also been shrinking over the summer. Average condo YTD list price of $416,215 and sale price of $404,527 still beat last year's YTD figures of $380,133 and $366,350.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, noted, in a September 16 article, that Bay Area-wide real estate sales in August were the lowest for any August since 1992---but added that sales, which were 10.9% below August of 2009 had "pulled out of the steep descent seen in July when the market lost most of the boost that had been provided by federal home buyer tax credits". The article noted that, by comparison, July sales were 19.1% below this June and 22.8% below July '09.
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, when asked if this was bad news, was quoted as saying "---- it depends on your perspective. Some will find the August sales level disheartening though at least the declines weren't as steep as in July. But spectacularly low mortgage rates and today's lower prices present new opportunities for home shoppers who got discouraged in the past". Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100916.aspx
Local real estate agents this week had mixed reactions to the market, with some noting that attractive new listings were being snapped up by buyers almost immediately and others still expressing concern over the state of the economy and buyers' reluctance to commit.
Let's see what the next couple of weeks bring. That should give us some perspective on what the remainder of the year may have in store for us.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Sunday, September 5, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.5.10
Hello Everyone,
And Happy Labor Day Weekend.
Finally, as summer draws to a close, we are getting some warm weather---- some of it just a little bit too warm for folks who are not used to 100+ degree days. But so far, the weekend weather has been just about perfect. Buyers are out and attending open homes that interest them and several new listings in Southern Marin were getting a lot of activity around 1pm today, just as Sunday Opens were starting up. Lots of discussion among local agents about the state of the economy and whether we are in for a real estate "double dip". Many agents and their clients getting homes ready to place on the market for the traditional post Labor Day selling season, which usually lasts until about Thanksgiving. The question in everyone's mind is "How healthy will the fall real estate market be here in Marin County?" Lots of opinions on both sides---- with statistics to back them up. Remember Mark Twain's quote about there being 3 kinds of lies: Lies; Damn Lies; and Statistics? There are a lot of the latter attached to this email. In particular, please note the much-awaited City-by-City Analysis which comes out monthly. Of 13 Marin County cities and towns covered, it shows percentage in contract up in 9, down in 3, and essentially unchanged in 1. Also, please review the Single Family (SFR) and Condo Market Action Reports from NRT/Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. MarketQuest statistics from this and other reports show some very interesting activity during the month of August. For example: Active inventory (8/31) of 1,026 SFR's and 281 Condo's compares to 1228 SFR/325 Condo last August, and 1129 SFR/364 Condo in August of 2008. August's sold listings, at 132 SFR and 32 Condo compare to 167 SFR/38 Condo last year and 160 SFR/57 Condo in 2008. But, with 287 accepted offers for SFR's and 78 for condo's, this August was by far the best of the three years, with SFR's at 179 last year and 157 in '08 and Condo's at 48 last August and 61 the year before. This brings the ratio of accepted offers to new listings in August to 105.9% for SFR's and 101.3% for Condo's. Other than last December's 117% for SFR's, these are the highest figures in the 2 year period covered by the reports!
Yes, August sales are down for both SFR's and Condo's, both on a year-over-year basis and compared to July. YTD units sold, while still ahead of last year for both SFR's and Condo's have been losing momentum for some weeks now. YTD SFR units sold at 1226 as of 8/31 compared to 1000 in August of '09, or up 22.6%, while Condo units sold were 318 on 8/31 compared to the year-ago figure of 304, just hanging on to a razor-thin 4.6% year-over-year gain. Average YTD SFR sold price at $1,044,953 compared to $980,1113 last August and average days on market (DOM) for sold properties improved slightly from 98 last August to the current level of 87 DOM. For Condo's, the YTD average sold price on 8/31 was $394,377 vs. '09's $369,296, with DOM up 6 days from 103 to 110. The under-$1million range is still the most active, with 31.78% of SFR's and 29.46% of Condo's in contract on a County-wide basis. Upper end of the market still lagging due to continuing challenges in obtaining "jumbo" financing. Still a fabulous time for high-end cash buyers to pick up properties at excellent prices.
Buyers are out there. They are well-informed and looking for value. Successful agents and sellers are paying attention to detail, dressing properties in their "Sunday best" paying close attention to the most recent comparable sales, and pricing them to sell. Most agents also being careful not to under-price listings as current market environment less likely to float prices substantially higher than listing price, even with two or three offers. Buyers' agents acutely aware of hurdles with appraisers and loans--- less likely to encourage clients to go really high even to get a preferred property.
What does it all mean--- inventory down, unit sales down, and accepted offers up substantially??
We are looking forward with anticipation to the next several weeks, which should reveal the trend for the fall real estate market---------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
And Happy Labor Day Weekend.
Finally, as summer draws to a close, we are getting some warm weather---- some of it just a little bit too warm for folks who are not used to 100+ degree days. But so far, the weekend weather has been just about perfect. Buyers are out and attending open homes that interest them and several new listings in Southern Marin were getting a lot of activity around 1pm today, just as Sunday Opens were starting up. Lots of discussion among local agents about the state of the economy and whether we are in for a real estate "double dip". Many agents and their clients getting homes ready to place on the market for the traditional post Labor Day selling season, which usually lasts until about Thanksgiving. The question in everyone's mind is "How healthy will the fall real estate market be here in Marin County?" Lots of opinions on both sides---- with statistics to back them up. Remember Mark Twain's quote about there being 3 kinds of lies: Lies; Damn Lies; and Statistics? There are a lot of the latter attached to this email. In particular, please note the much-awaited City-by-City Analysis which comes out monthly. Of 13 Marin County cities and towns covered, it shows percentage in contract up in 9, down in 3, and essentially unchanged in 1. Also, please review the Single Family (SFR) and Condo Market Action Reports from NRT/Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. MarketQuest statistics from this and other reports show some very interesting activity during the month of August. For example: Active inventory (8/31) of 1,026 SFR's and 281 Condo's compares to 1228 SFR/325 Condo last August, and 1129 SFR/364 Condo in August of 2008. August's sold listings, at 132 SFR and 32 Condo compare to 167 SFR/38 Condo last year and 160 SFR/57 Condo in 2008. But, with 287 accepted offers for SFR's and 78 for condo's, this August was by far the best of the three years, with SFR's at 179 last year and 157 in '08 and Condo's at 48 last August and 61 the year before. This brings the ratio of accepted offers to new listings in August to 105.9% for SFR's and 101.3% for Condo's. Other than last December's 117% for SFR's, these are the highest figures in the 2 year period covered by the reports!
Yes, August sales are down for both SFR's and Condo's, both on a year-over-year basis and compared to July. YTD units sold, while still ahead of last year for both SFR's and Condo's have been losing momentum for some weeks now. YTD SFR units sold at 1226 as of 8/31 compared to 1000 in August of '09, or up 22.6%, while Condo units sold were 318 on 8/31 compared to the year-ago figure of 304, just hanging on to a razor-thin 4.6% year-over-year gain. Average YTD SFR sold price at $1,044,953 compared to $980,1113 last August and average days on market (DOM) for sold properties improved slightly from 98 last August to the current level of 87 DOM. For Condo's, the YTD average sold price on 8/31 was $394,377 vs. '09's $369,296, with DOM up 6 days from 103 to 110. The under-$1million range is still the most active, with 31.78% of SFR's and 29.46% of Condo's in contract on a County-wide basis. Upper end of the market still lagging due to continuing challenges in obtaining "jumbo" financing. Still a fabulous time for high-end cash buyers to pick up properties at excellent prices.
Buyers are out there. They are well-informed and looking for value. Successful agents and sellers are paying attention to detail, dressing properties in their "Sunday best" paying close attention to the most recent comparable sales, and pricing them to sell. Most agents also being careful not to under-price listings as current market environment less likely to float prices substantially higher than listing price, even with two or three offers. Buyers' agents acutely aware of hurdles with appraisers and loans--- less likely to encourage clients to go really high even to get a preferred property.
What does it all mean--- inventory down, unit sales down, and accepted offers up substantially??
We are looking forward with anticipation to the next several weeks, which should reveal the trend for the fall real estate market---------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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