The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.19.2009

for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/

Hello Everyone,

Marin County Single Family Residencees as a group crossed over into what has been traditionally known as "sellers' market" territory for the first time in quite a while at 27.1% in contract. This largely on the strength of the under- $1million market which is incredibly hot at 40.25% in contract, led by Novato and San Rafael. The Marin IJ front page today (5/22) trumpeted "Marin Home Sales Increase", also noting that median price went from $935,000 last year to $743,500 in April of this year (this author did not verify these statistics). Article went on to quote "analysts" as saying "a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics", something we have been saying for months. Home sales in the higher end continue to languish while buyers and even real estate agents question when the supply of "jumbo" mortgage money will be turned back on. Conversations with loan brokers indicate that this supply is slowly coming back but is tightly controlled. Word is that jumbo money is becoming available for adjustable loans, but that 30 year fixed money is still expensive and difficult to obtain. Guidelines and ratios for loans being strictly observed by lenders. Unknown factor affecting home sales is a possible "bulge in the python" of new foreclosures after several months of moratorium recently observed by lenders. Large new supply of inventory could depress prices. Many buyers with cash in search of high-end properties getting extraordinary deals. Smart investors in a buying mode. SFR days on market to May 19, 108 vs. 87 at this time last year. 408 units sold so far this year compared to 520 in '08, or -21.5%. 1247 SFR's listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of May 19, 338 of them in contract.

326 Condo's Listed on the Marin MLS on May 19. 117, or 35.85% in contract. Traditionally regarded as a "sellers" market, just on the borderline of "strong sellers' "---- with one major difference------ sellers do not have the ability to dictate pricing. 156 Condo units sold YTD vs. 135 at this time last year, a 15.5% increase. DOM for YTD sales at 117 vs. last year's 95. Median price $363,808 vs. $574,547 last year, held down by the preponderance of low-end bank-owned properties on the market. End of foreclosure moratorium brings up same questions/concerns as with SFR's, but invoestors reportedly snapping up multiple properties as they look at what they consider to be bargain pricing.
More will be revealed---
In the meantime, a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Holiday to all,
Fred

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.9.2009

for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com

Hello Everyone,

Whew, Feel the Heat!
City-by-City Report shows Novato at 43% in contract for single family residences (SFR) and condo's currently listed on MLS. Greenbrae follows at 35.14%, and San Rafael just a nose behind at 34.8%. Corte Madera also doing well at 30.48% in contract. Kentfield and Belvedere almost tied for last place with 7.89% and 8.93% (respectively) of listed homes in contract as of May 4.

County-wide, there are 1203 SFR's listed on MLS as of May 6, with 297, or 24.69% in contract, tantalizingly close to a "balanced" market. The under-$1million range hot at 37.58% in contract while upper-end homes still feeling the chill of restricted availability of "jumbo" mortgage money. Still time to get a piece of this cake before the heat melts the frosting---a golden opportunity that most likely will not last! $1-2million range at 13.7%, $2-3 million range at 10.74% and $3million and above at only 4.33% in contract! Average list price of SFR's sold YTD $1,017,204. Average sold price $960,035. Average Days on Market 112. YTD units sold 356, or 21% fewer than this time last year. Compares favorably with -25% at last report.

Condo's overall at 34.59% in contract, just short of a point higher than last month, but according to NRT Market Quest, accepted offers on condo's running at 107% of new listings in the month of April. Condo's that are selling are largely lower-end, with an average (YTD) list price of $350,127 and an average sold price of $338,037. Average days on market are 110. As of May 6, 138 condo's had sold YTD vs. 118 at the same time last year-- still ahead by 14% but losing a bit of steam compared to last month's +17.39%.

Dow Jones still volatile but trending up. Closed out the week on May 8 above 8500 and with a 164 point gain. People feeling hopeful again. So when the flow of jumbo mortgage money is turned back on, and it will---- bets are that the upper end will turn around.
More next time-----
Until then, Happy Mothers' Day and best wishes to all,
Fred