For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Happy New Year Everyone,
Probably too soon to form any opinions about the health of the Marin County real estate market or make any predictions for 2009. Stock market has the jitters again. People uncertain about the economy, waiting and hoping for Obamanomics to ride to the rescue. Look for a bit more stability if the rescue plan appears solid.
Inventory on Single Family Residences up slightly to 754 from 713 at the last (Jan 6) report. 128, or 17.5% of those are in contract, making the overall market a "buyers" market. This is a bit deceptive as the under-$1million segment at 25.7% in contract ("balanced market"), continues to outperform the "high end" which ranges from 8.96% to as low as 3.95% in contract. For example, of 76 homes currently listed between $2million and $3million on Multiple Listing Service (MLS), only 3 are currently in contract. Total single family homes sold year-to-date (YTD) at 37 vs. 60 in 2008, or about 38% fewer.
These are mostly homes that were in the pipeline from December contracts so not necessarily the beginning of a new downward trend.
Condominium inventory also up slightly at 271 vs. 256 on Jan 6. 31.25% of these in contract, technically a "sellers market" but condo market so price-sensitive as to render this term almost inapplicable at the moment. YTD units sold at 16 vs. 10 at this time in '08, or a 60% increase. This, as mentioned many times before in this report, the result of bank-owned real estate (REO) sales and major pricing concessions.
La Jolla, CA-based Data Quick Real Estate News, in a January 21 article, noted
"Bargain Hunting Dominates Bay Area Home Sales in December". Article notes reduced pricing due to REO's / price reductions as well as a lower-end market mix compared to previous periods. Also cites a 36% increase in units sold in the Bay Area in Dec, 2008 vs. Dec, 2007. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090121.aspx
More will be revealed as 2009 continues to unfold.
MAR 2008 full-year statistics not yet out but watch for our Marin County Annual Sales Comparison Year to Year 1965 through 2008 shortly after the data becomes available.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property SpecialistDirect: (415) 464-3509Mobile: (415) 847-0602Fax: (415) 925-0962Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.comWebsite: Visit My Website
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Friday, January 9, 2009
The Anlyan Report Marin Market Statistics 01.09.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone and Happy New Year,
As usual, the Marin County real estate market took a bit of a breather over the Holidays, so not too much action to report.
Before Christmas, President Bush announced a mini-bailout of the big 3, essentially assuring enough cash to last until the Obama inauguration. Whatever the new administration decides to do will be revealed soon enough, but financial markets calmed somewhat by the present administration's actions. Dow Jones was actually back in 9000 territory for a few days, but still very sensitive to continuing adverse economic news and currently back in the mid-8000 range. Mortgage interest rates at historic lows for those who have good income and good credit. This, combined with soft housing prices makes the current market a great opportunity for many buyers who have previously been frozen out by escalating prices and high rates. For those who are waiting for the market to drop further, there is no guarantee that will happen here in Marin. The prospect of a better deal in the future may be the enemy of a good deal now!
City-by-City report shows San Rafael, Novato, and Ross as the only "sellers' " markets as of January 2. San Rafael and Novato in this territory largely as the result of discount pricing led by REO's (bank owned property), and Ross with 4 of 13 properties in escrow could have significantly different statistics with one more property in or out of escrow. Other Marin locations in either Buyers' or Strong Buyers' territory, with Sausalito at the bottom of the heap showing only 2 of 30 properties in escrow as of January 2, or 6.6%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) showed 713 units on the market as of January 6, and 128 in contract, or 17.95%- a significant drop from Dec 16 when it was 152 properties in escrow out of 783 on the market. Homes under $1 million doing better at 25.56% in contract, a balanced market. Upper-end homes languishing at less than 10% in contract. This reflects the current more stringent lending guidelines for "jumbo" mortgages. Buyers who can either pay cash or with enough down payment to eliminate the need for jumbo mortgages on high-end properties are in great position now. From December 31 to January 6, there were 29 new listings and 42 price reductions. 12 units went contingent, 13 pending, and 23 units were sold. 71 listings expired, and 24 were withdrawn or are temporarily off the market.
Condominium inventory at 256, only 9 fewer units than on December 16. 31.25% in contract making it technically a "sellers' " market, down from just over 35% in contract in mid-December. During the 7 days from December 31 to January 6 there were 12 new condo listings, 9 price reductions, 9 units went contingent, 10 pending, and 8 units sold during the period. There were 21 expired listings and 3 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Marin Association of Realtors has advised that they will not have the official Marin County year-end figures available until at least the end of the 3rd week in January. The Marin County Annual Sales Comparison from 1965 to present will be available shortly after that. In the meantime, here are some figures compiled for the current edition of the Coldwell Banker "Marin Market Update" newsletter.
Marin County Sales Analysis Link
http://www.cbnorcalevents.com/MARIN/newsletter/January09/MRERJanuary09-2.html
More in a couple of weeks.
In the meantime, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone and Happy New Year,
As usual, the Marin County real estate market took a bit of a breather over the Holidays, so not too much action to report.
Before Christmas, President Bush announced a mini-bailout of the big 3, essentially assuring enough cash to last until the Obama inauguration. Whatever the new administration decides to do will be revealed soon enough, but financial markets calmed somewhat by the present administration's actions. Dow Jones was actually back in 9000 territory for a few days, but still very sensitive to continuing adverse economic news and currently back in the mid-8000 range. Mortgage interest rates at historic lows for those who have good income and good credit. This, combined with soft housing prices makes the current market a great opportunity for many buyers who have previously been frozen out by escalating prices and high rates. For those who are waiting for the market to drop further, there is no guarantee that will happen here in Marin. The prospect of a better deal in the future may be the enemy of a good deal now!
City-by-City report shows San Rafael, Novato, and Ross as the only "sellers' " markets as of January 2. San Rafael and Novato in this territory largely as the result of discount pricing led by REO's (bank owned property), and Ross with 4 of 13 properties in escrow could have significantly different statistics with one more property in or out of escrow. Other Marin locations in either Buyers' or Strong Buyers' territory, with Sausalito at the bottom of the heap showing only 2 of 30 properties in escrow as of January 2, or 6.6%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) showed 713 units on the market as of January 6, and 128 in contract, or 17.95%- a significant drop from Dec 16 when it was 152 properties in escrow out of 783 on the market. Homes under $1 million doing better at 25.56% in contract, a balanced market. Upper-end homes languishing at less than 10% in contract. This reflects the current more stringent lending guidelines for "jumbo" mortgages. Buyers who can either pay cash or with enough down payment to eliminate the need for jumbo mortgages on high-end properties are in great position now. From December 31 to January 6, there were 29 new listings and 42 price reductions. 12 units went contingent, 13 pending, and 23 units were sold. 71 listings expired, and 24 were withdrawn or are temporarily off the market.
Condominium inventory at 256, only 9 fewer units than on December 16. 31.25% in contract making it technically a "sellers' " market, down from just over 35% in contract in mid-December. During the 7 days from December 31 to January 6 there were 12 new condo listings, 9 price reductions, 9 units went contingent, 10 pending, and 8 units sold during the period. There were 21 expired listings and 3 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Marin Association of Realtors has advised that they will not have the official Marin County year-end figures available until at least the end of the 3rd week in January. The Marin County Annual Sales Comparison from 1965 to present will be available shortly after that. In the meantime, here are some figures compiled for the current edition of the Coldwell Banker "Marin Market Update" newsletter.
Marin County Sales Analysis Link
http://www.cbnorcalevents.com/MARIN/newsletter/January09/MRERJanuary09-2.html
More in a couple of weeks.
In the meantime, best wishes to all,
Fred
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