Hello Everyone,
DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego-based real estate news and information service, in a February 17 article, quoted its President, John Walsh, as saying something we have been emphacizing for the last couple of reports:
"January and February are the two months of the year that are the least predictive of upcoming trends. That said, last month’s activity was a continuation of trends we saw much of last year. The market is still dominated by distress sales and bargain hunting. We’re seeing little discretionary activity”.
However, the article also includes a chart comparing 2010 and 2011 YTD housing sales volume and prices by County. That table shows January (combined SFR and condo) unit home sales in Mariin County up 13.7% from 153 in January 2010 to 174 this year even though the median sales price for the period was down 6.5% from $535,000 to $500,000. These numbers are not exactly the same as ours (from the local MLS) but show the same trend--- unit sales up (mostly attributable to condo sales) and prices down. Full text of the DataQuick article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110217.aspx
A recent check of the Bareis/ Rappatoni MLS revealed that 269 out of 823 total SFR listings in Marin (over 32%) and 138 of 274 Condo listings (about 50%) were some sort of distressed sale (foreclosure, NOD, REO, VA repo, or short sale). Much of this activity is in Novato and San Rafael, but there is a significant amount of it throughout the County. Low prices generated by these distressed sales tend to keep a lid on non-distressed inventory as well. Inventory of homes for sale is low because owners who can postpone selling in this market tend to do so, hoping to get a better price later. Immaculate, extremely well-located homes do buck this trend a bit though they are still subject to its general influence. Owners who do choose to sell now are well-advised to pay careful attention to comparable sales and to dress their home for success by staging attractively and making it easy to show. Professional photography can make an enormous difference in a home's appearance on the MLS, generating more interest and more showings. Our formula of Preparation, Presentation, and Pricing bears repeatimg again and again. An experienced, professional REALTOR, familiar with your neighborhood is your best ally when planning to sell your home in today's market environment.
Many buyers still feeling frustrated by lack of available inventory. Multiple offers often generated when several of them pounce on the same attractive listing at the same time. Some of these multiple-offer situations are going over asking price, but not anywhere near as much as in the hot markets of just a few years ago. Recent gains in the stock market have folks feeling more confident about the economy and more comfortable about making a long-term financial commitment to a mortgage, although financial fallout from the recession/depression like Borders Books declaring bankruptcy last week, continues to dog the economy.
Many local real estate agents optimistic about prospects for better sales in 2011. Open houses are well-attended. Buyers are out in force and writing offers. Escrows are being opened. Some are falling through, but many are closing. There is anticipation in the air. Stock market is up. News of interest rates heading up is starting to make some buyers wonder if it is time to jump on board the train before it leaves the station. Are they correct? We will see soon enough.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes, to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, February 21, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 02.07.11
2.6.11
Hello Everyone,
Our comment of two weeks ago bears repeating. Last winter's real estate market, our current standard of comparison, was artificially inflated by Federal Homebuyer tax credits. As buyers rushed to get in on the tax-savings action, they skewed the numbers of sales by pushing them into the 1st and 2nd quarters. All of that artificial demand put a bit of upward pressure on prices too. So when we look at YTD sales of 87 Single Family Residences on February 1 (compared to 98 last year), a drop of 11.2%, it is really not such a bad number--- especially since it has gained significant ground since our last report, when it stood at -25.5%. Condo's, on the other hand, are actually up 3 units, from 37 last year to 40 on February 1. Prices have not held up as well though, with the average YTD sold price of an SFR at $824,748 compared to the year-ago figure of $1,114,266. Condo average sale prices also down, with an average YTD sold price of $338,593 on Feb 1 compared to last year's $392,979. These numbers affected significantly by market-mix, meaning that lower-value homes have been selling and not all of the price difference is value erosion.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 covered markets in the County up since last report, 4 down, and 1 (Ross) unchanged. Belvedere holding down the bottom of the pyramid at 3.33%, or only 1 of 30 active listings in contract. Fairfax at the apex with 43.75% and Novato close behind with 42.75%. Kentfield winning the "most improved" award, for going from 11% in contract at the end of December to 38% as of February 1!
SFR active inventory for Jan 31 lowest in over 2 years at only 583 units (CB MarketQuest*), compared to 827 in 2010 and 883 in '09. Accepted offers for January at 113% of new listings, down a bit from December's 140%, but still far above last January's 43% and '09's 24%. Months supply of inventory at 6.6, up a bit from December's 4.6, but still far better than 2010's 8.8 and 2009's 12.4. Upper-end homes doing better too, with 22.75% of homes in contract in the $1-2million dollar range, 25.5% in the $2-3 million dollar bracket, and homes over $3million up over 10% in contract.
Condo active inventory also lowest in more than 2 years at 193 units (CB MarketQuest*) compared to 266 in Jan 2010 and 287 in '09. Accepted condo offers for January at 71 more than double last year's 33 and Jan '09's 34. Months supply of condo inventory at 4.8 actually down from December's 5.9, as well as both Jan '10 and '09, which came in at 7.4 and 8.2, respectively. Condo percentage in contract overall at 35.8%, with those under $1million slightly better at 36.7%.
Lots of short sale and REO activity still going on. Multiple offers not unusual in the current market, but even with 4 or 5 offers most properties not going very far over asking price. Many agents optimistic about the year ahead and local offices busy with all the open escrows, but deals often challenging to bring to a successful conclusion. Interest rates a bit higher than the lowest lows, but still great. Read the attached January MarketQuest SFR and Condo reports for more details, and decide for yourself what kind of a year you think 2011 will turn out to be in the world of Marin County real estate. Email fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for a copy of Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's article "The Best Time in History to Buy a House" for an interesting perspective on today's real estate values compared to the entire 20th century!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
* CB MarketQuest statistics and MLS statistics count "active listings" differently because of the way in which each includes or excludes contingent and/or pending listings.
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Our comment of two weeks ago bears repeating. Last winter's real estate market, our current standard of comparison, was artificially inflated by Federal Homebuyer tax credits. As buyers rushed to get in on the tax-savings action, they skewed the numbers of sales by pushing them into the 1st and 2nd quarters. All of that artificial demand put a bit of upward pressure on prices too. So when we look at YTD sales of 87 Single Family Residences on February 1 (compared to 98 last year), a drop of 11.2%, it is really not such a bad number--- especially since it has gained significant ground since our last report, when it stood at -25.5%. Condo's, on the other hand, are actually up 3 units, from 37 last year to 40 on February 1. Prices have not held up as well though, with the average YTD sold price of an SFR at $824,748 compared to the year-ago figure of $1,114,266. Condo average sale prices also down, with an average YTD sold price of $338,593 on Feb 1 compared to last year's $392,979. These numbers affected significantly by market-mix, meaning that lower-value homes have been selling and not all of the price difference is value erosion.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 covered markets in the County up since last report, 4 down, and 1 (Ross) unchanged. Belvedere holding down the bottom of the pyramid at 3.33%, or only 1 of 30 active listings in contract. Fairfax at the apex with 43.75% and Novato close behind with 42.75%. Kentfield winning the "most improved" award, for going from 11% in contract at the end of December to 38% as of February 1!
SFR active inventory for Jan 31 lowest in over 2 years at only 583 units (CB MarketQuest*), compared to 827 in 2010 and 883 in '09. Accepted offers for January at 113% of new listings, down a bit from December's 140%, but still far above last January's 43% and '09's 24%. Months supply of inventory at 6.6, up a bit from December's 4.6, but still far better than 2010's 8.8 and 2009's 12.4. Upper-end homes doing better too, with 22.75% of homes in contract in the $1-2million dollar range, 25.5% in the $2-3 million dollar bracket, and homes over $3million up over 10% in contract.
Condo active inventory also lowest in more than 2 years at 193 units (CB MarketQuest*) compared to 266 in Jan 2010 and 287 in '09. Accepted condo offers for January at 71 more than double last year's 33 and Jan '09's 34. Months supply of condo inventory at 4.8 actually down from December's 5.9, as well as both Jan '10 and '09, which came in at 7.4 and 8.2, respectively. Condo percentage in contract overall at 35.8%, with those under $1million slightly better at 36.7%.
Lots of short sale and REO activity still going on. Multiple offers not unusual in the current market, but even with 4 or 5 offers most properties not going very far over asking price. Many agents optimistic about the year ahead and local offices busy with all the open escrows, but deals often challenging to bring to a successful conclusion. Interest rates a bit higher than the lowest lows, but still great. Read the attached January MarketQuest SFR and Condo reports for more details, and decide for yourself what kind of a year you think 2011 will turn out to be in the world of Marin County real estate. Email fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for a copy of Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's article "The Best Time in History to Buy a House" for an interesting perspective on today's real estate values compared to the entire 20th century!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
* CB MarketQuest statistics and MLS statistics count "active listings" differently because of the way in which each includes or excludes contingent and/or pending listings.
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
