12.19.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Wishing everyone a wonderful and safe Holiday Season and a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year.
In the new year, reports will be twice a month, at the beginning and in the middle of the month. This will be the last report in 2008.
In financial news for the week, President Bush announced a bailout plan for Detroit. Lots of opposition to this from folks who contend that automakers have mis-managed their business for many years now, relying on the "cash cow" sales from SUV's instead of looking towards the future and developing sustainable products and strategies. Argument is that they have had the opportunity to improve their products and their management since the first energy crisis in the early 70's. As usual, there are two sides to this story. In a normal economy, having one automaker declare bankruptcy might be an option. Feeling is that in the current economy, already in a major recession, the ripple effect on unemployment, investments, and other segments of the economy from having 2 or more automakers in bankruptcy is just too great to ignore. Stock market yawned at the news, actually losing 25 points on the Dow by the end of the day Friday, Dec 19. Meltdown probably avoided by Bush's action though. Remains to be seen what Obama administration will do starting in January and where this will all take us in 2009 and beyond. At least the new administration will now have a chance to work on a solution from a place of relative stability rather than chaos.
Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve reduced the rate at which it loans money to member banks to a range of 0-.25%, a historic low. Stocks rallied on that news.
San Francisco Chronicle headline for December 19 blares: "Rush To Refinance" "As mortgage rates plunge to lows not seen in decades, lenders brace for surge of homeowners taking advantage--but many troubled borrowers will be left out in the cold".
La Jolla-based DataQuick Real Estate News, in an article dated December 18, proclaimed:
Bay Area median home price sinks to 8-year low; sales up over '07 again
In part, the article stated:
"Bay Area home sales decelerated in November but beat the year-ago mark for the third consecutive month. The allure of discounted foreclosures continued to drive sales in affordable inland markets, which helped push the median sale price down to its lowest point since former President Bill Clinton was in the White House."
Article goes on to state how sales of bank-owned real estate are diluting the various Bay Area markets.
Full text of article available at
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081218.aspx
Only thing we can say for certain is that 2009 will be an action-packed year, and a year of great transition and great opportunity. Stay tuned for more excitement!
Marin County Real Estate:
Inventory was down again across the board. Some prospective sellers deferred action over the holidays in favor of waiting until January while a number of sellers with homes on the market withdrew them temporarily for the holidays.
Single Family Residences total active inventory down to 783 as of December 16 compared to 871 the previous week. Percentage in contract up slightly to 19.11% from 18.6% the week before--- still a buyers' market. Homes under $1million slipped slightly to 26.73% in contract, still technically a sellers' market. Some notable sales over asking price with multiple offers, but in general a very price-sensitive market with buyers choosy and skittish. Properties over $1million still a strong buyers' market-- great opportunity for buyers with cash to spend. More properties than usual dropping out of escrow during the contingency period. Important for sellers to pick buyers carefully and to be willing to negotiate in good faith. Services of an experienced local real estate professional invaluable in this market.
Condominium inventory down just four units from last week at 268. Percentage in contract up 2 points to 35%. 485 units sold year-to-date, compared to 494 at the same time last year. Anyone care to guess whether we will end the year even, ahead, or behind 2007? In any case, REO sales have driven average price down to $480,515 from last year's $647,376. Keep in mind that only part of this is price reduction, with part due to more lower-end homes being sold.
More in 2009.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Friday, December 19, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 12.12.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Christmas now less than two weeks away. Marin housing market generally slower as folks get ready for the Holidays. Inventory down again in almost all segments Quite a bit of activity underlying the calm market facade. A "cottage" industry going on with off-market listings. Seems sellers leery of the current market are telling their agents to sell off the MLS, thinking this will keep their property from getting "stale" if it does not garner any offers. Problem is less exposure to agents and to the market. Less certainty of correct pricing for both buyer and seller. Economic theory supports the proposition that perfect markets require perfect information. Logically, the less perfect the information, the less perfect the market so off-market sales-----------.
REO's (bank-owned real estate) active in the County with some attracting multiple offers over asking price and some failing to meet the banks' minimum price points and being held over for continued market exposure. An REO in San Anselmo this week received over 10 offers.
Interest rates excellent, presenting no problem for the well-qualified, save the extra energy required to jump through multiple lender hoops. Some buyers qualifying for a bit less in terms of loan value due to increased down-payment requirements. Resurgence of interest in Private Mortgage Insurance for those with less than 20% down. Mortgage interest rates dropped again during the period ending December 12, with available options currently at multi-year lows according to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital in Greenbrae.
Single Family Residences
As of December 9, there were 871 SFR's listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service, down from 889 the week before. 162 of these, or 18.6% were in contract making it a buyers' market overall. Of the homes listed, 458 were priced under $1million and 27.29% of those were in contract, technically a sellers' market (over 25% in contract). Notwithstanding this, market in general continues to be very sensitive to price. Location, condition, staging also critical in this market. Experienced local real estate professionals invaluable in assessing market values. Upper end of the market continues to lag with $1million to $2million at 10% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.33% in contract, and over-$3million at only 5.8% in contract. Great opportunity for cash-heavy buyers to score big bargains. Move-up buyers note this is a very rare opportunity to benefit from big savings on your trade.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 29 new listings, 50 price reductions.
20 Listings went contingent and 24 went pending. 16 homes sold, 10 listings expired, and 51 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to burn up the road with late-season sales gains. 481 year-to-date condo sales in the County compare to 484 at the same time last year. Prices significantly lower with average sale price of $479,937 vs. $648,437 last year at the same time. Days on market longer at 106 vs 83 in '07.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 11 new listings, 20 price reductions.
11 Listings went contingent and 3 went pending. 13 units sold, 5 listings expired, and 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Hello Everyone,
Christmas now less than two weeks away. Marin housing market generally slower as folks get ready for the Holidays. Inventory down again in almost all segments Quite a bit of activity underlying the calm market facade. A "cottage" industry going on with off-market listings. Seems sellers leery of the current market are telling their agents to sell off the MLS, thinking this will keep their property from getting "stale" if it does not garner any offers. Problem is less exposure to agents and to the market. Less certainty of correct pricing for both buyer and seller. Economic theory supports the proposition that perfect markets require perfect information. Logically, the less perfect the information, the less perfect the market so off-market sales-----------.
REO's (bank-owned real estate) active in the County with some attracting multiple offers over asking price and some failing to meet the banks' minimum price points and being held over for continued market exposure. An REO in San Anselmo this week received over 10 offers.
Interest rates excellent, presenting no problem for the well-qualified, save the extra energy required to jump through multiple lender hoops. Some buyers qualifying for a bit less in terms of loan value due to increased down-payment requirements. Resurgence of interest in Private Mortgage Insurance for those with less than 20% down. Mortgage interest rates dropped again during the period ending December 12, with available options currently at multi-year lows according to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital in Greenbrae.
Single Family Residences
As of December 9, there were 871 SFR's listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service, down from 889 the week before. 162 of these, or 18.6% were in contract making it a buyers' market overall. Of the homes listed, 458 were priced under $1million and 27.29% of those were in contract, technically a sellers' market (over 25% in contract). Notwithstanding this, market in general continues to be very sensitive to price. Location, condition, staging also critical in this market. Experienced local real estate professionals invaluable in assessing market values. Upper end of the market continues to lag with $1million to $2million at 10% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.33% in contract, and over-$3million at only 5.8% in contract. Great opportunity for cash-heavy buyers to score big bargains. Move-up buyers note this is a very rare opportunity to benefit from big savings on your trade.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 29 new listings, 50 price reductions.
20 Listings went contingent and 24 went pending. 16 homes sold, 10 listings expired, and 51 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to burn up the road with late-season sales gains. 481 year-to-date condo sales in the County compare to 484 at the same time last year. Prices significantly lower with average sale price of $479,937 vs. $648,437 last year at the same time. Days on market longer at 106 vs 83 in '07.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 11 new listings, 20 price reductions.
11 Listings went contingent and 3 went pending. 13 units sold, 5 listings expired, and 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 12.06.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Another volatile week in the stock market. All over the map on adverse job reports, lack of a bailout plan for the "big 3" auto-makers and other news. Will probably stay jumpy for a while. Ended the week down only about 190 points on the Dow after making up for some much larger losses earlier in the week.
City by City report out this week shows Novato and San Rafael continue to be strong performers, pushed along (particularly in Novato) by REO (bank owned property) sales at bargain prices. Novato at 34.7% in contract for single family homes and condo sales combined. Normally we would characterize this as being within a breath of a "strong sellers' market" which we think of as 35% or more in contract. This market much more sensitive to price so sellers should be aware to dress up their homes and price them for the market. Greenbrae turned in the only other solid performance, but on such light volume that one unit more or less could have swung the statistics another way. Everything else in central/southern Marin in buyers' or strong buyers' territory.
SFR (single family residence) total listings down to 889. Everything a buyers' or strong buyers' market on a county-wide basis except the $1million and under "entry-level" market which is at 26.9% in contract, just into sellers' market territory. Sellers be aware this is a bit of a misnomer as sales very sensitive to price, presentation, and buyer perception. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 40 new listings and 32 price reductions. 28 listings went contingent, 9 pending, 20 sold, 41 expired, and 33 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's lost just a bit of ground from last week, but the under -$1million segment (all but 8 units) still at 34.18% in contract, a very strong showing and close to the 35% "strong sellers' market" threshold. Inventory down to 283 from last week's 306. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 10 new listings and 17 price reductions. 7 Units went contingent, 9 went pending, 13 were sold, 18 expired, and 14 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Another volatile week in the stock market. All over the map on adverse job reports, lack of a bailout plan for the "big 3" auto-makers and other news. Will probably stay jumpy for a while. Ended the week down only about 190 points on the Dow after making up for some much larger losses earlier in the week.
City by City report out this week shows Novato and San Rafael continue to be strong performers, pushed along (particularly in Novato) by REO (bank owned property) sales at bargain prices. Novato at 34.7% in contract for single family homes and condo sales combined. Normally we would characterize this as being within a breath of a "strong sellers' market" which we think of as 35% or more in contract. This market much more sensitive to price so sellers should be aware to dress up their homes and price them for the market. Greenbrae turned in the only other solid performance, but on such light volume that one unit more or less could have swung the statistics another way. Everything else in central/southern Marin in buyers' or strong buyers' territory.
SFR (single family residence) total listings down to 889. Everything a buyers' or strong buyers' market on a county-wide basis except the $1million and under "entry-level" market which is at 26.9% in contract, just into sellers' market territory. Sellers be aware this is a bit of a misnomer as sales very sensitive to price, presentation, and buyer perception. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 40 new listings and 32 price reductions. 28 listings went contingent, 9 pending, 20 sold, 41 expired, and 33 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's lost just a bit of ground from last week, but the under -$1million segment (all but 8 units) still at 34.18% in contract, a very strong showing and close to the 35% "strong sellers' market" threshold. Inventory down to 283 from last week's 306. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 10 new listings and 17 price reductions. 7 Units went contingent, 9 went pending, 13 were sold, 18 expired, and 14 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, November 28, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.28.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.
Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.
Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.
Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.
Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.28.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.
Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.
Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.
Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.
Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, November 21, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.21.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Wall Street woe worsens worrying would-be buyers.
Stocks trembled and tumbled again during the business week ending on November 21, giving up several years worth of gains. According to the Nov. 21 Wall Street Journal, "the Dow is off 47% from last year's record, its heaviest decline since the bear market of 1937-1938 when it fell 49%" The article also states that "If the S&P 500 were to finish the year where it was on Thursday, it would mark an annual decline of 48.8%, the worst annual percentage drop in its 80-year history".
In spite of all this, properties are being bought and sold here in Marin. Many buyers with the courage of their convictions picking up exceptional deals. According to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital, there is "no problem getting money" for mortgages. Putting this in context, it is true that buyers have to have good credit, verifiable income, and a down payment. The down payment may not have to be a full 20% if the buyer is willing to get private mortgage insurance. There are 90% loans going through. The property has to appraise, and the larger the loan, the greater the chance that the appraisal will undergo a review. All this said however, loans are still being made. Now is a great time to get in the market and avoid the competition from all the other buyers who later will wish they had pulled their chairs up to the table. Bottom line is--- there is money out there for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR). In the 7 days ending on November 18, inventory of SFR's declined 25 units to 970. This compares to 848 in November of '07 and 822 in November of '06. Overall percentage in contract up 3 points to 20.8%, still a buyers market, but the popular under-$1million range a "sellers' " market at 27.95% in contract. As previously discussed, this is not a license to overprice, but rather an indication that properly prepared and presented, wel-located and well-priced homes under $1million are still selling well. Varies of course by town, neighborhood, street and by specific home. Check with a knowledgable local real estate professional for the best advice on pricing in this market.. YTD units sold at 1429 vs.1821 last year at this time, or -21.5%, the gap widening again for the last couple weeks, but not dramatically. Average list price for YTD units sold $1,394,944 and average sold price $1,291,702. Average Days on market (DOM) at 87. Comparable figures last year were average list $1,447,653, average sold $1,367,997, and DOM 74.
Condo sales again the bright spot in the Marin market. Inventory declined 12 units to 323. This compares to 269 in November of '06 and 314 in November of '07. Overall percentage in contract up just slightly to 35.29%, but enough to push it over the line and change the label to "strong sellers' " market. Under-$1million segment doing even better at 36.42% in contract relieved of the statistical burden of the 10 units over $1million of which none were in contract as of 11/18. Regarding the significance of this condo market being in "strong sellers' " territory, please see above reference under SFR's. YTD units sold at 442 vs 461 last year at this time-- the gap continuing to close and now at only -4.1%. Lots of buyers recognizing value in this reduced-price REO-driven environment and snapping up properties. Average list price for YTD units sold $530,694. Average sold price $490,175. Average DOM 104. Last year's comparable figures were: average list $675,726; average sold $652,337; DOM 83.
Lots of buyers and some sellers will take a break for the Holidays. This provides perfect opportunity for persistance to pay off.
More next week. Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Wall Street woe worsens worrying would-be buyers.
Stocks trembled and tumbled again during the business week ending on November 21, giving up several years worth of gains. According to the Nov. 21 Wall Street Journal, "the Dow is off 47% from last year's record, its heaviest decline since the bear market of 1937-1938 when it fell 49%" The article also states that "If the S&P 500 were to finish the year where it was on Thursday, it would mark an annual decline of 48.8%, the worst annual percentage drop in its 80-year history".
In spite of all this, properties are being bought and sold here in Marin. Many buyers with the courage of their convictions picking up exceptional deals. According to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital, there is "no problem getting money" for mortgages. Putting this in context, it is true that buyers have to have good credit, verifiable income, and a down payment. The down payment may not have to be a full 20% if the buyer is willing to get private mortgage insurance. There are 90% loans going through. The property has to appraise, and the larger the loan, the greater the chance that the appraisal will undergo a review. All this said however, loans are still being made. Now is a great time to get in the market and avoid the competition from all the other buyers who later will wish they had pulled their chairs up to the table. Bottom line is--- there is money out there for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR). In the 7 days ending on November 18, inventory of SFR's declined 25 units to 970. This compares to 848 in November of '07 and 822 in November of '06. Overall percentage in contract up 3 points to 20.8%, still a buyers market, but the popular under-$1million range a "sellers' " market at 27.95% in contract. As previously discussed, this is not a license to overprice, but rather an indication that properly prepared and presented, wel-located and well-priced homes under $1million are still selling well. Varies of course by town, neighborhood, street and by specific home. Check with a knowledgable local real estate professional for the best advice on pricing in this market.. YTD units sold at 1429 vs.1821 last year at this time, or -21.5%, the gap widening again for the last couple weeks, but not dramatically. Average list price for YTD units sold $1,394,944 and average sold price $1,291,702. Average Days on market (DOM) at 87. Comparable figures last year were average list $1,447,653, average sold $1,367,997, and DOM 74.
Condo sales again the bright spot in the Marin market. Inventory declined 12 units to 323. This compares to 269 in November of '06 and 314 in November of '07. Overall percentage in contract up just slightly to 35.29%, but enough to push it over the line and change the label to "strong sellers' " market. Under-$1million segment doing even better at 36.42% in contract relieved of the statistical burden of the 10 units over $1million of which none were in contract as of 11/18. Regarding the significance of this condo market being in "strong sellers' " territory, please see above reference under SFR's. YTD units sold at 442 vs 461 last year at this time-- the gap continuing to close and now at only -4.1%. Lots of buyers recognizing value in this reduced-price REO-driven environment and snapping up properties. Average list price for YTD units sold $530,694. Average sold price $490,175. Average DOM 104. Last year's comparable figures were: average list $675,726; average sold $652,337; DOM 83.
Lots of buyers and some sellers will take a break for the Holidays. This provides perfect opportunity for persistance to pay off.
More next week. Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.15.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
During the 7 days ending on November 11, the inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) for sale in Marin County remained relatively stable at 995 units as opposed to 999 last week. Percentage in contract overall crept up about 1 point to 17.69%, still a buyers' market. Homes under $1million at 26.53% in contract, just back inside sellers' market territory, while the upper end of the market still in the "strong buyers" category: $1-2 million at 10.22%; $2-3 million at 7.34%; over $3million at 7.23%. Year to date units sold at 1411 compared to 1793 at the same time last year, or -21.3%.
MarketQuest statistics for October show that SFR's had 274 new listings for the month, 121 sales, 193 listings were cancelled. There were 162 accepted offers, average Days on Market were 105. There was an 8.5 month supply of SFR's on the market here in Marin County and the ratio of sale price to list price was 91.2%.
Condominiums did a bit better during the week. There were 335 active listings vs. last week's 330. Overall percentage in contract was 34.93%, tantalizingly close to a "strong sellers' " market. The preponderance of condo inventory that is under $1million came in at 35.89% in contract, just over the line into "strong sellers' " territory. The upper end of the market consisted of 9 units in the $1-2 million range, none of which were in contract as of 11/11. YTD units sold at 428 vs. 450 last year at this time, or only -4.8%. This figure has been catching up consistently for several months and now has almost drawn even. If the market continues its momentum it may equal or even surpass last year's total before the end of December, albeit at substantially lower prices. MarketQuest statistics show the average sold price of a Marin County condo was $450,000 in October, up from September's $427,000, but a far cry from the previous 24 month high of 779,000 in November of '07. There were 69 new condo listings, 66 sold listings, and 136 accepted offers. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 136%, Days on Market were 95, and there was only a 4 month supply of listings on the market. The ratio of sale price to list price was 94.1%. 49 listings expired or were cancelled.
Stock market still jumping around causing people to be cautious, especially on large purchases. Nonetheless, major opportunities await those inclined to take advantage of them.
more next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
During the 7 days ending on November 11, the inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) for sale in Marin County remained relatively stable at 995 units as opposed to 999 last week. Percentage in contract overall crept up about 1 point to 17.69%, still a buyers' market. Homes under $1million at 26.53% in contract, just back inside sellers' market territory, while the upper end of the market still in the "strong buyers" category: $1-2 million at 10.22%; $2-3 million at 7.34%; over $3million at 7.23%. Year to date units sold at 1411 compared to 1793 at the same time last year, or -21.3%.
MarketQuest statistics for October show that SFR's had 274 new listings for the month, 121 sales, 193 listings were cancelled. There were 162 accepted offers, average Days on Market were 105. There was an 8.5 month supply of SFR's on the market here in Marin County and the ratio of sale price to list price was 91.2%.
Condominiums did a bit better during the week. There were 335 active listings vs. last week's 330. Overall percentage in contract was 34.93%, tantalizingly close to a "strong sellers' " market. The preponderance of condo inventory that is under $1million came in at 35.89% in contract, just over the line into "strong sellers' " territory. The upper end of the market consisted of 9 units in the $1-2 million range, none of which were in contract as of 11/11. YTD units sold at 428 vs. 450 last year at this time, or only -4.8%. This figure has been catching up consistently for several months and now has almost drawn even. If the market continues its momentum it may equal or even surpass last year's total before the end of December, albeit at substantially lower prices. MarketQuest statistics show the average sold price of a Marin County condo was $450,000 in October, up from September's $427,000, but a far cry from the previous 24 month high of 779,000 in November of '07. There were 69 new condo listings, 66 sold listings, and 136 accepted offers. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 136%, Days on Market were 95, and there was only a 4 month supply of listings on the market. The ratio of sale price to list price was 94.1%. 49 listings expired or were cancelled.
Stock market still jumping around causing people to be cautious, especially on large purchases. Nonetheless, major opportunities await those inclined to take advantage of them.
more next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, November 7, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.04.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
What a week! Obama wins historic election victory. Stock market rises several hundred points on anticipation then falls several hundred more following the election on profit taking and fears about the economy. Hedge funds reportedly selling stocks to raise cash against anticipated much larger than normal year-end redemptions by shareholders who have to give advance notice of their intentions. GM and other automakers reporting large financial losses are cutting jobs and talking with government authorities about a potential bailout package. Lots of theories around about the state of the economy and how long it will take to recover. Of course none of the experts agree. Conversations with other real estate agents, investors, and buyers of all kinds reveal individuals with historically winning records now putting money into California real estate, many finding deals on housing that "cash flow" as rentals right away. One savvy commercial agent reports buying condo's for his own account in the Sacramento area for as little as $86,000--- units that previously sold for over $200k. Smart money seems to be betting on a brighter future.
City-by-City report out this week shows continuing weakness in central/southern Marin housing markets with Tiburon, Mill Valley, Ross, and San Anselmo all strong buyers' markets at under 15% in contract. Larkspur and Fairfax under 10% in contract. These major buying opportunities simply do not come around very often in Marin County. Those who buy now are likely to do very well over the next five years. Those who don't will likely be saying "coulda, shoulda, woulda". Northern Marin down slightly, but hanging in there with San Rafael a "balanced" market at 25.9% in contract and Novato currently the only sellers' market with 32.07% of listed homes contract. Smart Novato sellers are grateful for the activity there but are mindful of the "competition". They know that preparation, price, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate are key ingredients to successful sales. Experienced local real estate professionals show their value now with in-depth knowledge of market conditions in the various towns and neighborhoods.
Single Family Residences (SFR):
Overall SFR inventory down again to 999 units. 16.7% of these are in contract, a buyers' market. YTD unit sales at 1394 vs. 1763 last year at this time, or -20.93%. Average list price $1,401,440 vs. $1,453,380 in '07 at the same time. Average sales price $1,298,063 vs '07's $1,373,953. Days on market at 86 vs. 73 at this time last year. Entry-level homes under $1million doing best at 24.8% in contract, a buyers' market, but close to "balanced". Upper-end homes showing "strong buyers' " across the board with over-$3million range at under 5% in contract. A great time for individuals with cash to go shopping for a new home.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to be a bright spot in the Marin housing market, with 33.6% of all listed condo's showing in contract--- a "sellers' " market. This renewed activity came at a cost--- prices are down significantly from a year ago, with average list at $541,358 vs. $664,235 at the same time last year, and average sold prices at $500,234 vs. $640,771 at this time in '07. Unit sales continue to catch up, with 14 units sold during the 7 days ended Nov 4, vs. only 4 units a year ago in the same period. Total YTD condo unit sales now at 421 vs. 443 last year at the same time, or only -5%. Condo's a great bargain now, especially for first-time buyers.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
What a week! Obama wins historic election victory. Stock market rises several hundred points on anticipation then falls several hundred more following the election on profit taking and fears about the economy. Hedge funds reportedly selling stocks to raise cash against anticipated much larger than normal year-end redemptions by shareholders who have to give advance notice of their intentions. GM and other automakers reporting large financial losses are cutting jobs and talking with government authorities about a potential bailout package. Lots of theories around about the state of the economy and how long it will take to recover. Of course none of the experts agree. Conversations with other real estate agents, investors, and buyers of all kinds reveal individuals with historically winning records now putting money into California real estate, many finding deals on housing that "cash flow" as rentals right away. One savvy commercial agent reports buying condo's for his own account in the Sacramento area for as little as $86,000--- units that previously sold for over $200k. Smart money seems to be betting on a brighter future.
City-by-City report out this week shows continuing weakness in central/southern Marin housing markets with Tiburon, Mill Valley, Ross, and San Anselmo all strong buyers' markets at under 15% in contract. Larkspur and Fairfax under 10% in contract. These major buying opportunities simply do not come around very often in Marin County. Those who buy now are likely to do very well over the next five years. Those who don't will likely be saying "coulda, shoulda, woulda". Northern Marin down slightly, but hanging in there with San Rafael a "balanced" market at 25.9% in contract and Novato currently the only sellers' market with 32.07% of listed homes contract. Smart Novato sellers are grateful for the activity there but are mindful of the "competition". They know that preparation, price, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate are key ingredients to successful sales. Experienced local real estate professionals show their value now with in-depth knowledge of market conditions in the various towns and neighborhoods.
Single Family Residences (SFR):
Overall SFR inventory down again to 999 units. 16.7% of these are in contract, a buyers' market. YTD unit sales at 1394 vs. 1763 last year at this time, or -20.93%. Average list price $1,401,440 vs. $1,453,380 in '07 at the same time. Average sales price $1,298,063 vs '07's $1,373,953. Days on market at 86 vs. 73 at this time last year. Entry-level homes under $1million doing best at 24.8% in contract, a buyers' market, but close to "balanced". Upper-end homes showing "strong buyers' " across the board with over-$3million range at under 5% in contract. A great time for individuals with cash to go shopping for a new home.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to be a bright spot in the Marin housing market, with 33.6% of all listed condo's showing in contract--- a "sellers' " market. This renewed activity came at a cost--- prices are down significantly from a year ago, with average list at $541,358 vs. $664,235 at the same time last year, and average sold prices at $500,234 vs. $640,771 at this time in '07. Unit sales continue to catch up, with 14 units sold during the 7 days ended Nov 4, vs. only 4 units a year ago in the same period. Total YTD condo unit sales now at 421 vs. 443 last year at the same time, or only -5%. Condo's a great bargain now, especially for first-time buyers.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, October 31, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.31.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com/
Hello Everyone,
Federal Reserve ("The Fed") cut interest rates again this week. Now down to 1%, the lowest level in 5 years. Also, rates have not been lower in 50 years. There is talk, however, that they could go even lower if market conditions warrant. Stock market rallied a bit and Dow Jones closed at 9180 on Thursday, Oct 30. Was trading at around 9300 as of mid-day on Friday, Halloween, but still a chance it could get "spooked" in the final hours and minutes of trading. Let's hope the uptrend continues and the markets begin to return to some semblance of normalcy. This would make most average folks feel more secure and less anxious about making the commitment to buy or sell a home.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory for the week down slightly again and percentage in contract also down overall at 16.7% in contract. Even the popular under-$1million price range down to 23.9% in contract, a buyers' market. Buyers could benefit from this rare opportunity. It probably will not last! Number of units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 down from the same period a year ago --22 this year vs. 28 last year. This caused the YTD unit sales figure to reverse its recent catch-up trend and go further negative, if only by a bit, -20.7% this week vs. -20.4% last week. Average list price county-wide at $1,406,539 vs. last year's $1,448,650 and average sold price $1,303,038 vs. $1,369,558 in '07 at the same time. Days on market (DOM) (cumulative) at 86 vs. 73 at the same time last year. City-by-City report due out next week will tell us which towns and cities are hot and which are not. There were 42 new listings, 23 contingent sales, 14 pending, and 22 units sold during the period. 4 listings expired and 28 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. There were 78 price reductions.
Condominium inventory decreased slightly, but percentage in contract remained stable, with condow overall at 32.2% in contract and condo's under $1million at 33.2%, both sellers' markets. Condo's from $1million to $2million (only 12 units at this time) were only 8.3% in contract, a major buyers' market and an opportunity for those looking to purchase units in this range. There was one unit on the market between $2million and $2,999,999 and it was not in contract. Average list price of condo's YTD $542,873 and average sold price $501,692 with days on market (cumulative) at 105. Last year's figures were: Average List $662,226; Average Sold $639,434, and 82 Days on Market. 14 units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 compared to 7 units last year, pushing the total of YTD units sold to 407 vs. last year's 439 at the same time, or only 7.3% less and continuing to narrow the gap. This trend driven by low REO prices and buyers who recognize great value when they see it. For the period there were 17 new listings, 14 contingent, 11 pending, 15 sold. 7 listings expired, 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market, and there were 18 price reductions.
Presidential election next week. Probably a large psychological effect. Let's watch to see what happens.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Federal Reserve ("The Fed") cut interest rates again this week. Now down to 1%, the lowest level in 5 years. Also, rates have not been lower in 50 years. There is talk, however, that they could go even lower if market conditions warrant. Stock market rallied a bit and Dow Jones closed at 9180 on Thursday, Oct 30. Was trading at around 9300 as of mid-day on Friday, Halloween, but still a chance it could get "spooked" in the final hours and minutes of trading. Let's hope the uptrend continues and the markets begin to return to some semblance of normalcy. This would make most average folks feel more secure and less anxious about making the commitment to buy or sell a home.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory for the week down slightly again and percentage in contract also down overall at 16.7% in contract. Even the popular under-$1million price range down to 23.9% in contract, a buyers' market. Buyers could benefit from this rare opportunity. It probably will not last! Number of units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 down from the same period a year ago --22 this year vs. 28 last year. This caused the YTD unit sales figure to reverse its recent catch-up trend and go further negative, if only by a bit, -20.7% this week vs. -20.4% last week. Average list price county-wide at $1,406,539 vs. last year's $1,448,650 and average sold price $1,303,038 vs. $1,369,558 in '07 at the same time. Days on market (DOM) (cumulative) at 86 vs. 73 at the same time last year. City-by-City report due out next week will tell us which towns and cities are hot and which are not. There were 42 new listings, 23 contingent sales, 14 pending, and 22 units sold during the period. 4 listings expired and 28 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. There were 78 price reductions.
Condominium inventory decreased slightly, but percentage in contract remained stable, with condow overall at 32.2% in contract and condo's under $1million at 33.2%, both sellers' markets. Condo's from $1million to $2million (only 12 units at this time) were only 8.3% in contract, a major buyers' market and an opportunity for those looking to purchase units in this range. There was one unit on the market between $2million and $2,999,999 and it was not in contract. Average list price of condo's YTD $542,873 and average sold price $501,692 with days on market (cumulative) at 105. Last year's figures were: Average List $662,226; Average Sold $639,434, and 82 Days on Market. 14 units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 compared to 7 units last year, pushing the total of YTD units sold to 407 vs. last year's 439 at the same time, or only 7.3% less and continuing to narrow the gap. This trend driven by low REO prices and buyers who recognize great value when they see it. For the period there were 17 new listings, 14 contingent, 11 pending, 15 sold. 7 listings expired, 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market, and there were 18 price reductions.
Presidential election next week. Probably a large psychological effect. Let's watch to see what happens.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, October 25, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.25.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Despite the dramatic swings in worldwide financial markets this week and in the recent past, the Marin County real estate market statistics show only incremental changes. It is important to understand that sales statistics come from closed escrows, which take 30 to 45 days on average to work their way through the system. So buyers' and sellers' reactions to last week's news will show up in a month or so. What we have now is evidence of what they did and thought last month. Notable exceptions to this are new listings (56 for single family homes this week, and 12 for condo's) and listings that went into contract, or "contingent" listings (36 for SFR and 13 for condo for the week). These two categories do reflect what buyers and sellers are doing now, in real time and the numbers say they are buying and selling real estate.
As we have noted before, monthly unit sales have been increasing compared to '07 for some time now and a lot of this activity is due to reduced prices brought about by foreclosure resales. The preponderance of this activity is in Novato and to a lesser extent in San Rafael where the markets are quite active but prices are down significantly from '07. La Jolla-based Data Quick Information Services published an article on this on October 21 which contains some interesting information. It is available online at:
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081021.aspx
Single Family Residences: (SFR)
Inventory down slightly in all segments up to $3 million. $3million and up segment unchanged at 93 listings. $0-$999,999 "entry-level" market just below "balanced" at 24.75% in contract, technically a buyers' market. For the 7 days ending October 21, 31 single family homes closed escrow compared to the year-ago figure of 21. This brought total YTD SFR sales to within 20% of '07's sales at the same point in time, continuing the recent trend.
Condominiums:
6 Condo's sold during the week as opposed to 7 last year, breaking a recent trend of exceeding the previous year's sales on a week-to-week basis. Condo's YTD unit sales now -9% compared to 07's sales at the same point in time. This compares to -8.9% last week. Let's just call it roughly even. Condo's under $1million showing as sellers' markets at 31.7% in contract vs. last week's statistics showing them as strong sellers' markets at over 35% in contract. Forward-looking investors and other buyers seeking value have been driving the recent activity in this market and will most likely continue to do so. Next week's figures may tell us more.
Activity and pricing for both SFR's and Condo's varies significantly by town or city as well as by neighborhood, and of course by the individual home. Experienced real estate professionals invaluable in assessing value of properties in this varied and changing market.
Mortgage money still available to qualified buyers but documentation has increased. Government guarantees on FHA and VA loans helping with loans under $729,750 limit. Jumbo loans more difficult to obtain but are available to those with appropriate income, credit, down payment. Important to have a top-notch lender or mortgage broker who will stay on top of your application and guide it through the process from beginning to end. Ask your real estate professional for a recommendation.
Looking for more stability after the November 4 election.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Despite the dramatic swings in worldwide financial markets this week and in the recent past, the Marin County real estate market statistics show only incremental changes. It is important to understand that sales statistics come from closed escrows, which take 30 to 45 days on average to work their way through the system. So buyers' and sellers' reactions to last week's news will show up in a month or so. What we have now is evidence of what they did and thought last month. Notable exceptions to this are new listings (56 for single family homes this week, and 12 for condo's) and listings that went into contract, or "contingent" listings (36 for SFR and 13 for condo for the week). These two categories do reflect what buyers and sellers are doing now, in real time and the numbers say they are buying and selling real estate.
As we have noted before, monthly unit sales have been increasing compared to '07 for some time now and a lot of this activity is due to reduced prices brought about by foreclosure resales. The preponderance of this activity is in Novato and to a lesser extent in San Rafael where the markets are quite active but prices are down significantly from '07. La Jolla-based Data Quick Information Services published an article on this on October 21 which contains some interesting information. It is available online at:
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081021.aspx
Single Family Residences: (SFR)
Inventory down slightly in all segments up to $3 million. $3million and up segment unchanged at 93 listings. $0-$999,999 "entry-level" market just below "balanced" at 24.75% in contract, technically a buyers' market. For the 7 days ending October 21, 31 single family homes closed escrow compared to the year-ago figure of 21. This brought total YTD SFR sales to within 20% of '07's sales at the same point in time, continuing the recent trend.
Condominiums:
6 Condo's sold during the week as opposed to 7 last year, breaking a recent trend of exceeding the previous year's sales on a week-to-week basis. Condo's YTD unit sales now -9% compared to 07's sales at the same point in time. This compares to -8.9% last week. Let's just call it roughly even. Condo's under $1million showing as sellers' markets at 31.7% in contract vs. last week's statistics showing them as strong sellers' markets at over 35% in contract. Forward-looking investors and other buyers seeking value have been driving the recent activity in this market and will most likely continue to do so. Next week's figures may tell us more.
Activity and pricing for both SFR's and Condo's varies significantly by town or city as well as by neighborhood, and of course by the individual home. Experienced real estate professionals invaluable in assessing value of properties in this varied and changing market.
Mortgage money still available to qualified buyers but documentation has increased. Government guarantees on FHA and VA loans helping with loans under $729,750 limit. Jumbo loans more difficult to obtain but are available to those with appropriate income, credit, down payment. Important to have a top-notch lender or mortgage broker who will stay on top of your application and guide it through the process from beginning to end. Ask your real estate professional for a recommendation.
Looking for more stability after the November 4 election.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.14.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Probably no surprise to anyone that the Marin County housing market lost a little steam over the past week or two! Financial markets and people's emotions on a roller-coaster ride. But the Dow finished up for the week with the biggest weekly percentage gain (4.8%) in over five years.
Single Family Residences (SFR) overall now solidly in buyers' market territory at 17.43% in contract. Entry level market of under-$1million dollar homes still holding on to its value best overall at 24.1% in contract, or almost in balanced market territory. More expensive homes in general receiving less interest from buyers so currently a great opportunity. Buyers-- opportunities like this do not come around very often in Marin County. If you are interested in value, you will want to give this your attention now. 93 listings of homes over $3million, and only 5 of them in contract as of October 14. In the $2-3million dollar range, only 17 out of 118 listings in contract. Average list price of SFR listings $1,414,473 vs. $1,453,117 at this time last year. Average sold price $1,310,990 compared to $1,373,858 in '07 at the same time. During the 7 days from 10/8 to 10/14 there were 44 new SFR listings, 83 price reductions, 33 contingent, 24 pending, 30 sold, and15 expired. 28 listings were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. In spite of all the turmoil, 32 units sold during the week compared to the year-ago figure of 24, further closing the YTD units sold gap from -22% to -21.3%.
Condominiums off a bit but still holding up surprisingly well, with all under $1million still at above 30% in contract--sellers' market territory. True, they had been a "strong sellers" market in the week before, but we had mentioned that this was an oversimplification as buyers were still skittish and choosy. Still, 23 units sold during the week compared to 5 the previous year, enough more to close the YTD unit sales gap to within 8.9% of 2007's YTD figures. Average prices substantially lower than '07 though with average list price at $541,103 vs. 2007's $663,133, and average sold price just over $500,000 compared to the year-ago figure of $640,598. There were 19 new condo listings during the period from 10/8 to 10/14 as well as 17 price reductions, 10 contingent, 12 pending, 22 sold, 11 expired and 10 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
With bank liquidity on the upswing due to recent actions by the Federal Reserve, I look for mortgage interest rates to come back down from their recent jump.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Probably no surprise to anyone that the Marin County housing market lost a little steam over the past week or two! Financial markets and people's emotions on a roller-coaster ride. But the Dow finished up for the week with the biggest weekly percentage gain (4.8%) in over five years.
Single Family Residences (SFR) overall now solidly in buyers' market territory at 17.43% in contract. Entry level market of under-$1million dollar homes still holding on to its value best overall at 24.1% in contract, or almost in balanced market territory. More expensive homes in general receiving less interest from buyers so currently a great opportunity. Buyers-- opportunities like this do not come around very often in Marin County. If you are interested in value, you will want to give this your attention now. 93 listings of homes over $3million, and only 5 of them in contract as of October 14. In the $2-3million dollar range, only 17 out of 118 listings in contract. Average list price of SFR listings $1,414,473 vs. $1,453,117 at this time last year. Average sold price $1,310,990 compared to $1,373,858 in '07 at the same time. During the 7 days from 10/8 to 10/14 there were 44 new SFR listings, 83 price reductions, 33 contingent, 24 pending, 30 sold, and15 expired. 28 listings were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. In spite of all the turmoil, 32 units sold during the week compared to the year-ago figure of 24, further closing the YTD units sold gap from -22% to -21.3%.
Condominiums off a bit but still holding up surprisingly well, with all under $1million still at above 30% in contract--sellers' market territory. True, they had been a "strong sellers" market in the week before, but we had mentioned that this was an oversimplification as buyers were still skittish and choosy. Still, 23 units sold during the week compared to 5 the previous year, enough more to close the YTD unit sales gap to within 8.9% of 2007's YTD figures. Average prices substantially lower than '07 though with average list price at $541,103 vs. 2007's $663,133, and average sold price just over $500,000 compared to the year-ago figure of $640,598. There were 19 new condo listings during the period from 10/8 to 10/14 as well as 17 price reductions, 10 contingent, 12 pending, 22 sold, 11 expired and 10 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
With bank liquidity on the upswing due to recent actions by the Federal Reserve, I look for mortgage interest rates to come back down from their recent jump.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.10.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Roller Coaster ride continues! Still my belief that we will come out of this ok, but with so much volatility still going on it is probably best to see what happens over the course of the next few days and let the dust settle just a bit . Checks with local mortgage brokers reveal lenders still making deals, but at significantly higher rates than a week ago.
What's going on in the market:
Single Family Residences inventory down a just a few units from 1067 to 1061. Percentage in contract relatively stable for all price ranges, with only incremental changes. Overall at 19.23% in contract, a slight decrease from last week's 19.68%. Homes under $1million up just a hair from 24.9% to 25.3% in contract. During the month of September there were 299 new listings and 228 accepted offers, about 79.4%. As of October 7, 1282 single family homes had sold during the year compared to 1646 at the same time last year, or -22%, about the same figure we reported last week.
Condominium inventory down just a touch too at 364 vs. last week's 369, but percentage in contract moved up again, to 35.9% overall. The percentage in contract of condo's over $1million dropped but with only 17 units in the segment, this swing probably not tremendously significant.104 new condo listings during the month of September, and105 accepted offers, or 101%, the highest figure in at least the last 23 months. As of October 7, 364 units had sold year-to-date compared to 420 at the same time last year, or -13.3%, continued improvement from last week's -15%. Sellers can be encouraged about these statistics, but not cavalier. Still need to price, prepare, and market carefully, and be willing to negotiate with qualified buyers.
There will undoubtedly be more adverse financial news but it is important to understand that opportunities often come disguised as problems.
Rudyard Kipling probably said it best:
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too; . . . If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster And treat those two impostors just the same . . . Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”
more next week---until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Roller Coaster ride continues! Still my belief that we will come out of this ok, but with so much volatility still going on it is probably best to see what happens over the course of the next few days and let the dust settle just a bit . Checks with local mortgage brokers reveal lenders still making deals, but at significantly higher rates than a week ago.
What's going on in the market:
Single Family Residences inventory down a just a few units from 1067 to 1061. Percentage in contract relatively stable for all price ranges, with only incremental changes. Overall at 19.23% in contract, a slight decrease from last week's 19.68%. Homes under $1million up just a hair from 24.9% to 25.3% in contract. During the month of September there were 299 new listings and 228 accepted offers, about 79.4%. As of October 7, 1282 single family homes had sold during the year compared to 1646 at the same time last year, or -22%, about the same figure we reported last week.
Condominium inventory down just a touch too at 364 vs. last week's 369, but percentage in contract moved up again, to 35.9% overall. The percentage in contract of condo's over $1million dropped but with only 17 units in the segment, this swing probably not tremendously significant.104 new condo listings during the month of September, and105 accepted offers, or 101%, the highest figure in at least the last 23 months. As of October 7, 364 units had sold year-to-date compared to 420 at the same time last year, or -13.3%, continued improvement from last week's -15%. Sellers can be encouraged about these statistics, but not cavalier. Still need to price, prepare, and market carefully, and be willing to negotiate with qualified buyers.
There will undoubtedly be more adverse financial news but it is important to understand that opportunities often come disguised as problems.
Rudyard Kipling probably said it best:
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too; . . . If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster And treat those two impostors just the same . . . Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”
more next week---until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, October 4, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.04.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week!. Monday-economic stimulus package voted down-stock market plummets over 700 points. "Sweetened" version of package finally passes on Friday- Wall Street rallies on anticipation and sells on news. Many people breathe a sigh of relief while others complain our representatives in Congress have sold us out. People don't know what to think and even the "experts" differ in their opinions. Obviously this is not a great position to be in, but my opinion is things would be much worse without the government "bailout". It will take us a while to work our way out of this, but we will. It is to be hoped that better regulations will be instituted to prevent a future replay. Important to remember that the $700 billion will actually buy some assets that will ultimately lead to revenue and even appreciation in some cases, so we are not necessarily pouring all these $ down the proverbial drain.
Short version of the story is that people feel uncertain. Many have re-evaluated their plans. Some wonder if they will have a job after all this is over. A number of stories around the County from agents who had buyers back out of transactions at the last minute---some even forfeiting substantial deposit $. A number of investors think differently and are welcoming this unusual situation as the best buying opportunity since the early 90's. People who buy now will probably do very well over the next 5-7 years. A quick check with local mortgage brokers revealed that money is still available for well qualified buyers however excellent credit, full documention, and substantial deposits are the rule.
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows only Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Novato increased percentage of listings in contract last month. All other cities and towns figures headed south. Only San Rafael and Novato still in sellers' market territory. San Rafael experiencing a slight drop but hanging in there at 26.5% in contract. Novato actually increased to 33.2% while combined condo and SFR inventory there declined from 415 to 343 units since the previous week.
Inventory actually down across the board. All price ranges of Single Family Homes now in buyers' or strong buyers' market territory with homes under $1million just missing "balanced" market status at 24.9% in contract. Despite this, total YTD homes sold coasted to another increase with 46 units sold in the week vs. 24 in the same week last year. Now at -22% vs. -24% last week on a year-to-year comparison.
Condo sales continue their recent success story, with 34.7% of all condo's in escrow--a slight drop from last week but still a very encouraging number. Condo's still closing the YTD sales gap with 19 units sold during the week vs. only 7 the year before. Now at -15% on a YTD basis vs. last weeks figure of -18% compared to the same time in 2007.
Where do we go from here? More will be revealed.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week!. Monday-economic stimulus package voted down-stock market plummets over 700 points. "Sweetened" version of package finally passes on Friday- Wall Street rallies on anticipation and sells on news. Many people breathe a sigh of relief while others complain our representatives in Congress have sold us out. People don't know what to think and even the "experts" differ in their opinions. Obviously this is not a great position to be in, but my opinion is things would be much worse without the government "bailout". It will take us a while to work our way out of this, but we will. It is to be hoped that better regulations will be instituted to prevent a future replay. Important to remember that the $700 billion will actually buy some assets that will ultimately lead to revenue and even appreciation in some cases, so we are not necessarily pouring all these $ down the proverbial drain.
Short version of the story is that people feel uncertain. Many have re-evaluated their plans. Some wonder if they will have a job after all this is over. A number of stories around the County from agents who had buyers back out of transactions at the last minute---some even forfeiting substantial deposit $. A number of investors think differently and are welcoming this unusual situation as the best buying opportunity since the early 90's. People who buy now will probably do very well over the next 5-7 years. A quick check with local mortgage brokers revealed that money is still available for well qualified buyers however excellent credit, full documention, and substantial deposits are the rule.
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows only Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Novato increased percentage of listings in contract last month. All other cities and towns figures headed south. Only San Rafael and Novato still in sellers' market territory. San Rafael experiencing a slight drop but hanging in there at 26.5% in contract. Novato actually increased to 33.2% while combined condo and SFR inventory there declined from 415 to 343 units since the previous week.
Inventory actually down across the board. All price ranges of Single Family Homes now in buyers' or strong buyers' market territory with homes under $1million just missing "balanced" market status at 24.9% in contract. Despite this, total YTD homes sold coasted to another increase with 46 units sold in the week vs. 24 in the same week last year. Now at -22% vs. -24% last week on a year-to-year comparison.
Condo sales continue their recent success story, with 34.7% of all condo's in escrow--a slight drop from last week but still a very encouraging number. Condo's still closing the YTD sales gap with 19 units sold during the week vs. only 7 the year before. Now at -15% on a YTD basis vs. last weeks figure of -18% compared to the same time in 2007.
Where do we go from here? More will be revealed.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, September 26, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.23.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com/
Hello Everyone,
Washington Mutual failed this week and the government struck a deal with JP Morgan/Chase to take it over. Stock market relatively calm, and relative to the major financial events of recent weeks, no huge new bad news revealed. People still feeling a bit wary and waiting for the other shoe to drop. Lots of articles stating or implying that the $700 billion Washington bail-out is just a band-aid don't help, and neither does the lack of agreement among the various branches of government involved. Still, all of this has been around for a week or more and nothing new to factor in, so we'll keep this week's report short--- as Sgt. Joe Friday used to say "Just the facts, ma'am".
Single Family Residences (SFR): YTD unit sales at 1203 vs. last year's 1583 at this time, or -24%. Still, about 31 SFR 's sold for the week compared to 24 in the same 7 days in '07. This represents continued week over week improvement, a trend for a number of weeks now. Inventory down slightly from1116 to1103 with 226 of those in contract, or only about 20.49%, a buyers' market. Under- $1million segment percentage in contract down again to 26.2%, technically a sellers' market, but very segmented and buyers continue to be skittish. My recommendation--know your market, utilize the services of an experienced local real estate professional, and don't push the pricing envelope. Upper end of the market (above $2million) actually bumped up a bit but still a buyers' market.
Condominiums: Continued to defy gravity and current events. Percentage in contract up again in all price ranges, giving condo sellers a long-overdue reason to celebrate. Marin County condo's overall at 37% in contract, technically a strong sellers' market. As we have discussed before, this came at the expense of substantial sales price reductions over the last year, largely driven by lenders sales of foreclosed units. Nonetheless, buyers back in the market. Historical data shows Marin real estate prices rarely decrease, making this a rare opportunity and a great time to buy. Not all condo complexes created equal so check with a local real estate professional about relative values. Their knowledge almost essential in markets like this. YTD condo units sold at 330 compared to 404 same time last year, or -18%. 10 units sold during the week compared to only 4 in 2007, continuing the gains of recent weeks which have helped the market to continue its recovery from much larger deficits earlier in the year.
more next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Washington Mutual failed this week and the government struck a deal with JP Morgan/Chase to take it over. Stock market relatively calm, and relative to the major financial events of recent weeks, no huge new bad news revealed. People still feeling a bit wary and waiting for the other shoe to drop. Lots of articles stating or implying that the $700 billion Washington bail-out is just a band-aid don't help, and neither does the lack of agreement among the various branches of government involved. Still, all of this has been around for a week or more and nothing new to factor in, so we'll keep this week's report short--- as Sgt. Joe Friday used to say "Just the facts, ma'am".
Single Family Residences (SFR): YTD unit sales at 1203 vs. last year's 1583 at this time, or -24%. Still, about 31 SFR 's sold for the week compared to 24 in the same 7 days in '07. This represents continued week over week improvement, a trend for a number of weeks now. Inventory down slightly from1116 to1103 with 226 of those in contract, or only about 20.49%, a buyers' market. Under- $1million segment percentage in contract down again to 26.2%, technically a sellers' market, but very segmented and buyers continue to be skittish. My recommendation--know your market, utilize the services of an experienced local real estate professional, and don't push the pricing envelope. Upper end of the market (above $2million) actually bumped up a bit but still a buyers' market.
Condominiums: Continued to defy gravity and current events. Percentage in contract up again in all price ranges, giving condo sellers a long-overdue reason to celebrate. Marin County condo's overall at 37% in contract, technically a strong sellers' market. As we have discussed before, this came at the expense of substantial sales price reductions over the last year, largely driven by lenders sales of foreclosed units. Nonetheless, buyers back in the market. Historical data shows Marin real estate prices rarely decrease, making this a rare opportunity and a great time to buy. Not all condo complexes created equal so check with a local real estate professional about relative values. Their knowledge almost essential in markets like this. YTD condo units sold at 330 compared to 404 same time last year, or -18%. 10 units sold during the week compared to only 4 in 2007, continuing the gains of recent weeks which have helped the market to continue its recovery from much larger deficits earlier in the year.
more next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, September 19, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.16.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week! Dow Jones all over the map. Lehman Brothers fails. AIG teeters on the brink. FED puts together a rescue plan. White House seems to be more on top of this than Hurricane Katrina. Lots of criticism about bailing out the "fat cats", but govt. sees no real choice and is compelled to save them while backstopping the U.S. and world financial system. This action seems to calm the markets and Dow returns to sanity or a facismile thereof. Once all this is in place, options for next president will be significantly narrowed.
Here in Marin County, buyers and sellers understandably concerned about availability of mortgage money as well as price levels, with buyers wanting to wait until market reaches bottom and sellers nervous about whether to sell now or wait until value comes back up. Move-up buyers have a great opportunity to save money even if they get less for their present home. The savings on a more expensive home will outweigh any loss on the former property. Of course if it is possible to keep the old home and rent it out while waiting for further market appreciation, that would be an even better solution!
Condo's the star in this week's Marin real estate production! Condo market overall went to 35.37% in contract, with 133 of 376 listed properties in contract. This is technically a strong sellers' market. Nice to see some renewed strength in this segment, albeit at significantly lower prices than a year or two ago. Properties finally moving again but very price sensitive and buyers selective and skittish with a number of properties falling out of escrow. Market at -20% in YTD units sold, compared to this time last year. This is a major improvement from earlier this year and follows a trend that has been going on for quite a few weeks now. Average YTD sold price $520,729 vs last year's $641,225, and days on market (DOM) at 92 vs. '07's 76 at this time.
Single Family Residences (SFR) slipped again this week to 20.61% in contract, a buyers' market overall. Varies, of course, by city, town, neighborhood, condition, etc. Under $1 million "entry level" market still a sellers' market at 27.39% in contract, but just barely. Prices holding up better than condo's though with average YTD sold price at $1,314,021 vs. last year at this time $1,373,219 and DOM at 77 vs 07's 70 days at this same date. Word from local mortgage brokers is that loans are pretty much all "full doc" right now, with jumbo loans much scarcer than previously. This may improve a bit as more order returns to the national financial scene. In the meantime, buyers with cash are in a very good position.
More financial events playing out daily and it will probably be a while before we see the final result. One thing for sure though, if you need a place to live it is tough to beat Marin County, and over the long run, I'd bet on more price appreciation---
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week! Dow Jones all over the map. Lehman Brothers fails. AIG teeters on the brink. FED puts together a rescue plan. White House seems to be more on top of this than Hurricane Katrina. Lots of criticism about bailing out the "fat cats", but govt. sees no real choice and is compelled to save them while backstopping the U.S. and world financial system. This action seems to calm the markets and Dow returns to sanity or a facismile thereof. Once all this is in place, options for next president will be significantly narrowed.
Here in Marin County, buyers and sellers understandably concerned about availability of mortgage money as well as price levels, with buyers wanting to wait until market reaches bottom and sellers nervous about whether to sell now or wait until value comes back up. Move-up buyers have a great opportunity to save money even if they get less for their present home. The savings on a more expensive home will outweigh any loss on the former property. Of course if it is possible to keep the old home and rent it out while waiting for further market appreciation, that would be an even better solution!
Condo's the star in this week's Marin real estate production! Condo market overall went to 35.37% in contract, with 133 of 376 listed properties in contract. This is technically a strong sellers' market. Nice to see some renewed strength in this segment, albeit at significantly lower prices than a year or two ago. Properties finally moving again but very price sensitive and buyers selective and skittish with a number of properties falling out of escrow. Market at -20% in YTD units sold, compared to this time last year. This is a major improvement from earlier this year and follows a trend that has been going on for quite a few weeks now. Average YTD sold price $520,729 vs last year's $641,225, and days on market (DOM) at 92 vs. '07's 76 at this time.
Single Family Residences (SFR) slipped again this week to 20.61% in contract, a buyers' market overall. Varies, of course, by city, town, neighborhood, condition, etc. Under $1 million "entry level" market still a sellers' market at 27.39% in contract, but just barely. Prices holding up better than condo's though with average YTD sold price at $1,314,021 vs. last year at this time $1,373,219 and DOM at 77 vs 07's 70 days at this same date. Word from local mortgage brokers is that loans are pretty much all "full doc" right now, with jumbo loans much scarcer than previously. This may improve a bit as more order returns to the national financial scene. In the meantime, buyers with cash are in a very good position.
More financial events playing out daily and it will probably be a while before we see the final result. One thing for sure though, if you need a place to live it is tough to beat Marin County, and over the long run, I'd bet on more price appreciation---
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, September 12, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.09.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
An extremely interesting--one might even say historic--- week in the real estate industry. The Federal Government moved to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two mortgage finance giants which, together, are estimated to own or guarantee over half of the estimated $5 trillion or so of home mortgages in the US. The immediate effect was to stabilize mortgage rates, which dropped up to half a percentage point upon news of the action. Some expect further reductions of as much as another half a point. Investors in the stock of the two financial giants were in a position to suffer due to the now-diluted value of their holdings. The wider, long-term effects of the unprecedented action are unknown and the subject of much speculation, but is widely believed that the resultant calming of the financial markets bodes well for the continued availability of mortgage funds to homebuyers---some fear at great expense to taxpayers. For the full story, there are many artciles available by "Googling" "Fannie and Freddie takeover. What does it mean to you?" This reference courtesy of Andrew Grossman and Andy Kristen at Princeton Capital 415-464-3322.
Best of these articles is probably the Sep 7 New York Times piece, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/08/business/08consumer.html
Business Week also had a good article on September 8 http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/what_does_the_f.html
Marin County housing inventory up slightly in the week ending Sep 9, with 82 new Single Family Residence (SFR) and 24 new Condo listings. Percentage in contract up again from the week before, now 32.72% overall for condo's, a welcome turnaround for owners from the lows of just a few months ago. At this point, condo's are approaching the 35% in contract level at which the market would be considered a "strong sellers'" market. This was achieved through the pain of substantial price reductions, but it is, nonetheless, heartening to see some renewed strength in the market. SFR's percentage in contract held roughly steady at 21.79%, a buyers' market, with the upper end lagging, but the under-$1million segment still relatively hot at 29.7% in contract---technically a sellers' market. Varies considerably by city, town, and even neighborhood, so be sure to check with a knowledgeable local real estate professional. Sellers--- please remember, overpricing the one key mistake to avoid!
Savvy buyers still looking for bargains and overpriced listings still sitting.
Year-to-date unit sales continue to make progress vs. this time last year, with condo's @ -22.2% and SFR's at -25.2%. Last week's figures were -23.5% and -25.9% respectively. The last several weeks have seen continuing steady progress in narrowing these gaps. Look for continued activity and progress in the weeks between now and the start of the Holidays.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
An extremely interesting--one might even say historic--- week in the real estate industry. The Federal Government moved to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two mortgage finance giants which, together, are estimated to own or guarantee over half of the estimated $5 trillion or so of home mortgages in the US. The immediate effect was to stabilize mortgage rates, which dropped up to half a percentage point upon news of the action. Some expect further reductions of as much as another half a point. Investors in the stock of the two financial giants were in a position to suffer due to the now-diluted value of their holdings. The wider, long-term effects of the unprecedented action are unknown and the subject of much speculation, but is widely believed that the resultant calming of the financial markets bodes well for the continued availability of mortgage funds to homebuyers---some fear at great expense to taxpayers. For the full story, there are many artciles available by "Googling" "Fannie and Freddie takeover. What does it mean to you?" This reference courtesy of Andrew Grossman and Andy Kristen at Princeton Capital 415-464-3322.
Best of these articles is probably the Sep 7 New York Times piece, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/08/business/08consumer.html
Business Week also had a good article on September 8 http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/what_does_the_f.html
Marin County housing inventory up slightly in the week ending Sep 9, with 82 new Single Family Residence (SFR) and 24 new Condo listings. Percentage in contract up again from the week before, now 32.72% overall for condo's, a welcome turnaround for owners from the lows of just a few months ago. At this point, condo's are approaching the 35% in contract level at which the market would be considered a "strong sellers'" market. This was achieved through the pain of substantial price reductions, but it is, nonetheless, heartening to see some renewed strength in the market. SFR's percentage in contract held roughly steady at 21.79%, a buyers' market, with the upper end lagging, but the under-$1million segment still relatively hot at 29.7% in contract---technically a sellers' market. Varies considerably by city, town, and even neighborhood, so be sure to check with a knowledgeable local real estate professional. Sellers--- please remember, overpricing the one key mistake to avoid!
Savvy buyers still looking for bargains and overpriced listings still sitting.
Year-to-date unit sales continue to make progress vs. this time last year, with condo's @ -22.2% and SFR's at -25.2%. Last week's figures were -23.5% and -25.9% respectively. The last several weeks have seen continuing steady progress in narrowing these gaps. Look for continued activity and progress in the weeks between now and the start of the Holidays.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, September 7, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.02.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/ )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows substantial changes and interesting, or even compelling opportunities. Sausalito with 4 out of 49 properties, or 8.16% in contract, Mill Valley with 26 out of 157, or 16.5% and San Anselmo, with 11 out of 81 listed properties (13.5%) in contract all present unusual buyer opportunities. Does this mean the bottom has fallen out of these markets? I don't think so. Does it mean the markets will go down further? Could be, but I wouldn't bet on it. Does it mean that every home in these markets will go out at a bargain basement price? No! It does mean that buyers who have felt locked out of these areas due to competition from other buyers and rising prices have a rare window of opportunity. It does mean that buyers who are qualified, shop around, and are flexible, can find suitable properties at prices they could have only dreamed of a year or two ago.
Novato and San Rafael continuing their sales renaissance with 31% and 28%, respectively, of listed homes in contract, another increase in the recent string of welcome good news for these two cities.
Overall, out of 13 listed towns and cities, 7 down from last month, 5 up, and one unchanged.
Single Family Residences (SFR) up overall to 28.9% in contract and in all categories between $0 and $1.99M, but down on the upper end with the $2M to $2.99M price point down to 16.16% in contract, and the over $3M segment at 10.5%. Again, more opportunity for upper-end buyers with cash on hand. A fair number of luxury properties are selling quietly, off the market, so do not show up in these statistics.
Year-to-date unit volume at 1110 vs. 1498 at this time last year, or-25.9%, another improvement conforming to the recent trend.
Condo's continue their amazing rebound at 31.27% in contract overall, a "Seller's"
market. Condo's from 0-$999K doing even better at 32.39% in contract, but luxury condo's between $1M and $1.99M down again to only 11.11% in contract. Year-to-date condo unit volume at 296 vs. 387 at this time last year, or -23.5%. This continued improvement in closing the gap follows the recent trend. Last week's caveat bears repeating yet again-----. This is not the seller's market we remember from a couple of years ago. The market is competitive and price-sensitive. Buyers are market-savvy and negotiate hard, but they are out there and they are buying property. Keys to the sale? Pricing, preparation, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate---the fundamentals.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows substantial changes and interesting, or even compelling opportunities. Sausalito with 4 out of 49 properties, or 8.16% in contract, Mill Valley with 26 out of 157, or 16.5% and San Anselmo, with 11 out of 81 listed properties (13.5%) in contract all present unusual buyer opportunities. Does this mean the bottom has fallen out of these markets? I don't think so. Does it mean the markets will go down further? Could be, but I wouldn't bet on it. Does it mean that every home in these markets will go out at a bargain basement price? No! It does mean that buyers who have felt locked out of these areas due to competition from other buyers and rising prices have a rare window of opportunity. It does mean that buyers who are qualified, shop around, and are flexible, can find suitable properties at prices they could have only dreamed of a year or two ago.
Novato and San Rafael continuing their sales renaissance with 31% and 28%, respectively, of listed homes in contract, another increase in the recent string of welcome good news for these two cities.
Overall, out of 13 listed towns and cities, 7 down from last month, 5 up, and one unchanged.
Single Family Residences (SFR) up overall to 28.9% in contract and in all categories between $0 and $1.99M, but down on the upper end with the $2M to $2.99M price point down to 16.16% in contract, and the over $3M segment at 10.5%. Again, more opportunity for upper-end buyers with cash on hand. A fair number of luxury properties are selling quietly, off the market, so do not show up in these statistics.
Year-to-date unit volume at 1110 vs. 1498 at this time last year, or-25.9%, another improvement conforming to the recent trend.
Condo's continue their amazing rebound at 31.27% in contract overall, a "Seller's"
market. Condo's from 0-$999K doing even better at 32.39% in contract, but luxury condo's between $1M and $1.99M down again to only 11.11% in contract. Year-to-date condo unit volume at 296 vs. 387 at this time last year, or -23.5%. This continued improvement in closing the gap follows the recent trend. Last week's caveat bears repeating yet again-----. This is not the seller's market we remember from a couple of years ago. The market is competitive and price-sensitive. Buyers are market-savvy and negotiate hard, but they are out there and they are buying property. Keys to the sale? Pricing, preparation, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate---the fundamentals.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, August 30, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 08.26.2008
8.26.08
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Coasting into the Labor Day holiday, real estate activity paused a bit with many sellers waiting to put their homes on the market until after the final hurrah of summer vacation.
Inventory of single family residences (SFR) decreased again, to 1085 while most price points showed moderately reduced percentage in contract. The under-$1million "entry level" home price point went from 29.4% to 27.27% in contract, but still considered a sellers' market. Sellers should not take this literally, especially not in the context of the sellers' markets of recent years. It represents market improvement but not market dominance in any sense of the word. Proper pricing, preparation, presentation, and a willingness to work with sincere and qualified buyers are important ingredients for successful sales in today's market. Year-to-date units sold -26.2% compared to last year, a continued improvement. Average YTD SFR list price $1,427,369 average sold price $1,328,373, average days on market 75. Comparable figures from 2007-average list price $1,442,063 average sold price $1,384,232, average days on market 69.
Condominium sales continue their recent improvement. While inventory actually increased by one unit, to 373, percentage in contract increased a bit to 30.29%, continuing the newly developed "sellers' market" trend. Same caveats and recommendations for sellers apply as for SFR's above. Condo YTD unit sales improved again at -24.2% compared to this time last year with average list price of $573,464, average sold price $530,610, and average days on market of 94. This compares to 2007's average list price of $659,977, average sold price $639,296, and average days on market of 74. The increased condo market activity has been bought at a price, but buyers now perceive value in the market and are acting on it.
Next week, look for the monthly city-by-city report showing trends in most Marin County cities and towns. Look for increased market activity in the coming weeks- a normal trend- as folks return from vacation and settle back into their routines.
more next week---
until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Coasting into the Labor Day holiday, real estate activity paused a bit with many sellers waiting to put their homes on the market until after the final hurrah of summer vacation.
Inventory of single family residences (SFR) decreased again, to 1085 while most price points showed moderately reduced percentage in contract. The under-$1million "entry level" home price point went from 29.4% to 27.27% in contract, but still considered a sellers' market. Sellers should not take this literally, especially not in the context of the sellers' markets of recent years. It represents market improvement but not market dominance in any sense of the word. Proper pricing, preparation, presentation, and a willingness to work with sincere and qualified buyers are important ingredients for successful sales in today's market. Year-to-date units sold -26.2% compared to last year, a continued improvement. Average YTD SFR list price $1,427,369 average sold price $1,328,373, average days on market 75. Comparable figures from 2007-average list price $1,442,063 average sold price $1,384,232, average days on market 69.
Condominium sales continue their recent improvement. While inventory actually increased by one unit, to 373, percentage in contract increased a bit to 30.29%, continuing the newly developed "sellers' market" trend. Same caveats and recommendations for sellers apply as for SFR's above. Condo YTD unit sales improved again at -24.2% compared to this time last year with average list price of $573,464, average sold price $530,610, and average days on market of 94. This compares to 2007's average list price of $659,977, average sold price $639,296, and average days on market of 74. The increased condo market activity has been bought at a price, but buyers now perceive value in the market and are acting on it.
Next week, look for the monthly city-by-city report showing trends in most Marin County cities and towns. Look for increased market activity in the coming weeks- a normal trend- as folks return from vacation and settle back into their routines.
more next week---
until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, August 23, 2008
The Anlyan Report 8.19.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Another relatively quiet week in Marin County. Everyone finishing up their summer vacations, getting the kids back to school, etc. Real estate has been "on hold" in a lot of people's minds. Look for increased market activity in the coming weeks.
In the 7 days ending on August 19, inventory remained steady and percentage-in- contract figures declined for both single family residences (SFR) and condo's in most price categories. Exceptions were SFR's in the $2M and up range which showed modest gains. Year-to-date unit sales, although still below this time last year, continued to narrow the gap, with SFR's going from -28% the previous week to -27.5% in the current period, and condo's improving from -27.3% to-25%.
There were 65 new SFR listings between 8/13 and 8/19, 69 price reductions, 48 properties went contingent, 28 pending, 42 sold, 10 expired, and 26 withdrawn or temporarily off the market. For condo's, the figures were 19 new listings, 23 price reductions, 16 contingent, 10 pending, 14 sold, 4 expired, and 11 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
According to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Services, Marin County median home prices held up 3rd best in the state, at -13.12% (compared to last July), behind only San Francisco (-4.1%) and San Luis Obispo (-11.3%). And, out of 11 Marin County towns and cities listing median price figures, 6 showed year-over-year median price appreciation. For details, see http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR.aspx as well as the accompanying article on Bay Area home sales at http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080819.aspx
More next week------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Another relatively quiet week in Marin County. Everyone finishing up their summer vacations, getting the kids back to school, etc. Real estate has been "on hold" in a lot of people's minds. Look for increased market activity in the coming weeks.
In the 7 days ending on August 19, inventory remained steady and percentage-in- contract figures declined for both single family residences (SFR) and condo's in most price categories. Exceptions were SFR's in the $2M and up range which showed modest gains. Year-to-date unit sales, although still below this time last year, continued to narrow the gap, with SFR's going from -28% the previous week to -27.5% in the current period, and condo's improving from -27.3% to-25%.
There were 65 new SFR listings between 8/13 and 8/19, 69 price reductions, 48 properties went contingent, 28 pending, 42 sold, 10 expired, and 26 withdrawn or temporarily off the market. For condo's, the figures were 19 new listings, 23 price reductions, 16 contingent, 10 pending, 14 sold, 4 expired, and 11 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
According to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Services, Marin County median home prices held up 3rd best in the state, at -13.12% (compared to last July), behind only San Francisco (-4.1%) and San Luis Obispo (-11.3%). And, out of 11 Marin County towns and cities listing median price figures, 6 showed year-over-year median price appreciation. For details, see http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR.aspx as well as the accompanying article on Bay Area home sales at http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080819.aspx
More next week------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, August 15, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 08.12.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
A relatively quiet mid-summer real estate week in Marin County!
Condominiums continued their steady progress, finishing the week at slightly over 31% in contract overall. The $0-999K Condo market increased to 31% from 29% last week while inventory remained roughly the same. There were 18 new condo listings, 19 price reductions, 21 listings went contingent, 11 pending, 12 sold, 5 expired, and 8 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. Year-to-date, 258 condo's have sold in the County, compared to 355 at the same time last year, or 27% fewer units. This is a continued improvement from the -29% at last report. Prices are down, with the average YTD sold condo price at a bit over $533,000, compared to $640,000 last year at the same time. Condo's showing a bit more strength now, but no time for sellers to push the envelope on price. Best course of action is to consult with a local real estate professional familiar with your market. Then take that person's advice! Particularly important--- make sure the property is priced right and looks its best before it hits the market
Single Family Residences. Inventory overall roughly even on the boards with 1099 active listings during the period, compared to 1098 a week ago. $0-$999K "entry-level" homes inventory up slightly at 552 vs 544 a week ago, and now a solid sellers' market at 30.8% in contract. Upper-end homes mixed, with the $1M-$2M range picking up a couple of points to 16.5% in contract vs. slightly over 14% a week ago, a buyers' market. $2M-$3M market dropping from 15.8% to 14% in contract, and $3M and up market also dropping from 13% in contract to 10.4% in contract.
There were 55 new listings of single family homes, 76 price reductions, 41 properties went contingent, 29 pending, 32 sold,12 expired, and 22 properties were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. Through August 12, 993 single family homes have sold, compared to 1380 last year, or 28% fewer, representing an improvement from the week-ago figure of -28.9%. Average YTD sold price at $1,349,537 vs. last years figure of $1,367,841. Pricing, preparation, and presentation critical in this market. Professional real estate advice from an experienced local agent is invaluable. Market conditions looking up but constantly changing and vary by town, area, and neighborhood.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes for the rest of the summer,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
A relatively quiet mid-summer real estate week in Marin County!
Condominiums continued their steady progress, finishing the week at slightly over 31% in contract overall. The $0-999K Condo market increased to 31% from 29% last week while inventory remained roughly the same. There were 18 new condo listings, 19 price reductions, 21 listings went contingent, 11 pending, 12 sold, 5 expired, and 8 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. Year-to-date, 258 condo's have sold in the County, compared to 355 at the same time last year, or 27% fewer units. This is a continued improvement from the -29% at last report. Prices are down, with the average YTD sold condo price at a bit over $533,000, compared to $640,000 last year at the same time. Condo's showing a bit more strength now, but no time for sellers to push the envelope on price. Best course of action is to consult with a local real estate professional familiar with your market. Then take that person's advice! Particularly important--- make sure the property is priced right and looks its best before it hits the market
Single Family Residences. Inventory overall roughly even on the boards with 1099 active listings during the period, compared to 1098 a week ago. $0-$999K "entry-level" homes inventory up slightly at 552 vs 544 a week ago, and now a solid sellers' market at 30.8% in contract. Upper-end homes mixed, with the $1M-$2M range picking up a couple of points to 16.5% in contract vs. slightly over 14% a week ago, a buyers' market. $2M-$3M market dropping from 15.8% to 14% in contract, and $3M and up market also dropping from 13% in contract to 10.4% in contract.
There were 55 new listings of single family homes, 76 price reductions, 41 properties went contingent, 29 pending, 32 sold,12 expired, and 22 properties were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. Through August 12, 993 single family homes have sold, compared to 1380 last year, or 28% fewer, representing an improvement from the week-ago figure of -28.9%. Average YTD sold price at $1,349,537 vs. last years figure of $1,367,841. Pricing, preparation, and presentation critical in this market. Professional real estate advice from an experienced local agent is invaluable. Market conditions looking up but constantly changing and vary by town, area, and neighborhood.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes for the rest of the summer,
Fred
Friday, August 8, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 08.05.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this month shows 6 of 13 listed markets down and 7 up. Greenbrae still the king of the hill even with a slight drop since last month--coming in with 10 of 26 properties in contract, or 38.46%. Sausalito on the bottom rung of the Marin real estate market ladder this month with only 9.8% of listed properties in contract as of August 5, a strong buyers' market. Biggest surprise- Mill Valley, going from 26.7% in contract to 21.52% and from sellers' to buyers' market in the process. A great time for Mill Valley buyers to take advantage of what is probably a temporary market condition in this perennially popular community. San Rafael and Novato continue to improve their position at 26.8 and 27.98% in contract, respectively.
Single Family Residences (SFR): For the month of July, there were 258 new listings, 268 accepted offers, yielding a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 103.9% and a 5.4 month supply of inventory, the lowest since April of '07. 176 properties sold and the ratio of sale price to list price was 94.7%, a slight improvement over last month's 93.6%. Inventory was down again from 1125 to 1098, and the overall percentage in contract for all price ranges was 22.4%, a buyers' market. $0-999K "starter" homes were up to 30.7% in contract, a strong sellers' market, while the upper end of the SFR market was substantially softer--$1M-$1.99M down from 16.9% to 14.3% in contract, a strong buyers' market; $2M to $2.99M up marginally (.15%) to 15.84% and still a buyers' market, and finally, the over-$3million market fell from 14,85% in contract to 13%, presenting a great opportunity for well-heeled buyers to scoop up tremendous bargains. Year to date units sold vs last year picks up a very slight advantage, going from -28.9% to -28.6%, but at least headed in the right direction.
Condos: There were 89 new listings and 108 accepted offers, yielding a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 121.3%, and bringing the months' supply of inventory down to 5.7, the lowest since June of 2007. 52 condominiums sold, and the ratio of sale price to list price was 91.2, a slight improvement over last month's 90.3%.
Inventory was down again to 376 units from 385 last week. Overall percentage in contract down 1 tenth of 1 percent to 28.99%- still a sellers' market. The $0-$999K segment was down 1% to 28.58%, remaining a sellers' market as well. The $1M to $1.99M market down to 20% in contract, still a buyers' market, but representing only 20 units. Year to date units sold vs. last year narrows to -27.9%, a continued improvement, following the recent trend.
It is important to remember that the terms "buyers'" and "sellers'" market are relative and do not mean what they have meant in the past. Market generalizations do not necessarily apply to every home and there are certainly many exceptions. Pricing is critical in this market and overpricing is probably the greatest single reason that listings do not sell. The advice of a local real estate professional with recent experience in your market is an important component for success in the current market for both buyers and sellers.
more next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this month shows 6 of 13 listed markets down and 7 up. Greenbrae still the king of the hill even with a slight drop since last month--coming in with 10 of 26 properties in contract, or 38.46%. Sausalito on the bottom rung of the Marin real estate market ladder this month with only 9.8% of listed properties in contract as of August 5, a strong buyers' market. Biggest surprise- Mill Valley, going from 26.7% in contract to 21.52% and from sellers' to buyers' market in the process. A great time for Mill Valley buyers to take advantage of what is probably a temporary market condition in this perennially popular community. San Rafael and Novato continue to improve their position at 26.8 and 27.98% in contract, respectively.
Single Family Residences (SFR): For the month of July, there were 258 new listings, 268 accepted offers, yielding a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 103.9% and a 5.4 month supply of inventory, the lowest since April of '07. 176 properties sold and the ratio of sale price to list price was 94.7%, a slight improvement over last month's 93.6%. Inventory was down again from 1125 to 1098, and the overall percentage in contract for all price ranges was 22.4%, a buyers' market. $0-999K "starter" homes were up to 30.7% in contract, a strong sellers' market, while the upper end of the SFR market was substantially softer--$1M-$1.99M down from 16.9% to 14.3% in contract, a strong buyers' market; $2M to $2.99M up marginally (.15%) to 15.84% and still a buyers' market, and finally, the over-$3million market fell from 14,85% in contract to 13%, presenting a great opportunity for well-heeled buyers to scoop up tremendous bargains. Year to date units sold vs last year picks up a very slight advantage, going from -28.9% to -28.6%, but at least headed in the right direction.
Condos: There were 89 new listings and 108 accepted offers, yielding a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 121.3%, and bringing the months' supply of inventory down to 5.7, the lowest since June of 2007. 52 condominiums sold, and the ratio of sale price to list price was 91.2, a slight improvement over last month's 90.3%.
Inventory was down again to 376 units from 385 last week. Overall percentage in contract down 1 tenth of 1 percent to 28.99%- still a sellers' market. The $0-$999K segment was down 1% to 28.58%, remaining a sellers' market as well. The $1M to $1.99M market down to 20% in contract, still a buyers' market, but representing only 20 units. Year to date units sold vs. last year narrows to -27.9%, a continued improvement, following the recent trend.
It is important to remember that the terms "buyers'" and "sellers'" market are relative and do not mean what they have meant in the past. Market generalizations do not necessarily apply to every home and there are certainly many exceptions. Pricing is critical in this market and overpricing is probably the greatest single reason that listings do not sell. The advice of a local real estate professional with recent experience in your market is an important component for success in the current market for both buyers and sellers.
more next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, August 1, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 07.29.2008
Hello Everyone,
( for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Lots of news this week: President Bush signed a sweeping housing bill aimed at providing relief to help beleaguered homeowners as well as setting up a rescue plan for federal mortgage guarantors; Pasadena, Ca.-based IndyMac Bancorp filed for bankruptcy protection, becoming the 3rd largest bank failure in U.S. history; Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson predicted in a speech to a Washington audience that the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace for the rest of this year, despite housing slump-induced problems; DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla, CA released a report saying that California foreclosure activity was up from last quarter but that "On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties - an historical norm"--- and Marin County continued to defy the gloom and doom with sales statistics that reflect optimism and confidence in the economy and the future.
Inventory of Marin County Single Family Residences was down again from the previous week with percentage in contract remaining roughly the same at 22.76% vs. 22.77% the week before. Properties under $1million dropping only very slightly, from 30.47% to 29.4% in contract, still a sellers' market. Properties over $1million experiencing increased percentage in contract in all price segments but all still buyers' markets. YTD units sold again narrowing the gap between this year and 2007, going from -29% to -28.9%, a very small drop, but continuing a trend in the right direction. Days on Market at 76 vs. 69 at this time last year and average sold price down slightly at $1,346,697 vs. $1,371,034 at the same time last year. There were 46 new SFR listings for the week, 48 properties went contingent, 34 pending, and 41 were sold. There were 9 expired listings and 28 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Condo inventory down again as well, from 391 to 385, with overall percentage in contract up from 28.39% to 29.09% and the under-$1million segment increasing from 28.8% to 29.56% in contract, both indicating a sellers' market. YTD unit sales improving their position again relative to last year at -29.7% vs -31% last week. Condo Days on Market at 94 vs. 74 last year at this time, and condo prices down significantly with the average price of YTD sold properties at $531,795 vs. last year's $637,608. Condo units under $1million now showing as a sellers' market with only the very small over-$1million condo market still a buyers' market.
Does this mean a return to free-form pricing and let the good times roll? Not in this writer's opinion. Remember, the condo market worked really hard to get back in the game, experiencing a significant pricing drop along the way. Proper pricing is still critical on both condo's and SFR's, but properly priced, presented, and marketed properties are selling. Conversations with other agents this week revealed a number of transactions that experienced multiple offers and still went into contract at less than the listing price. Further local research reveals many deals going through one or more counter-offers, largely based on price, and the buyers' expectations of receiving $off from list price. Agents becoming wary of pricing too low due to awareness that whatever the price, buyers want to feel they got a bargain. Some choice properties still attracting offers over asking price, but the exception rather than the rule. Best advice for buyers and sellers: Hire a real estate professional experienced in your market and then follow the advice provided. Be willing to negotiate in good faith. And get ready to move.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
( for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Lots of news this week: President Bush signed a sweeping housing bill aimed at providing relief to help beleaguered homeowners as well as setting up a rescue plan for federal mortgage guarantors; Pasadena, Ca.-based IndyMac Bancorp filed for bankruptcy protection, becoming the 3rd largest bank failure in U.S. history; Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson predicted in a speech to a Washington audience that the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace for the rest of this year, despite housing slump-induced problems; DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla, CA released a report saying that California foreclosure activity was up from last quarter but that "On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties - an historical norm"--- and Marin County continued to defy the gloom and doom with sales statistics that reflect optimism and confidence in the economy and the future.
Inventory of Marin County Single Family Residences was down again from the previous week with percentage in contract remaining roughly the same at 22.76% vs. 22.77% the week before. Properties under $1million dropping only very slightly, from 30.47% to 29.4% in contract, still a sellers' market. Properties over $1million experiencing increased percentage in contract in all price segments but all still buyers' markets. YTD units sold again narrowing the gap between this year and 2007, going from -29% to -28.9%, a very small drop, but continuing a trend in the right direction. Days on Market at 76 vs. 69 at this time last year and average sold price down slightly at $1,346,697 vs. $1,371,034 at the same time last year. There were 46 new SFR listings for the week, 48 properties went contingent, 34 pending, and 41 were sold. There were 9 expired listings and 28 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Condo inventory down again as well, from 391 to 385, with overall percentage in contract up from 28.39% to 29.09% and the under-$1million segment increasing from 28.8% to 29.56% in contract, both indicating a sellers' market. YTD unit sales improving their position again relative to last year at -29.7% vs -31% last week. Condo Days on Market at 94 vs. 74 last year at this time, and condo prices down significantly with the average price of YTD sold properties at $531,795 vs. last year's $637,608. Condo units under $1million now showing as a sellers' market with only the very small over-$1million condo market still a buyers' market.
Does this mean a return to free-form pricing and let the good times roll? Not in this writer's opinion. Remember, the condo market worked really hard to get back in the game, experiencing a significant pricing drop along the way. Proper pricing is still critical on both condo's and SFR's, but properly priced, presented, and marketed properties are selling. Conversations with other agents this week revealed a number of transactions that experienced multiple offers and still went into contract at less than the listing price. Further local research reveals many deals going through one or more counter-offers, largely based on price, and the buyers' expectations of receiving $off from list price. Agents becoming wary of pricing too low due to awareness that whatever the price, buyers want to feel they got a bargain. Some choice properties still attracting offers over asking price, but the exception rather than the rule. Best advice for buyers and sellers: Hire a real estate professional experienced in your market and then follow the advice provided. Be willing to negotiate in good faith. And get ready to move.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, July 25, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 07.22.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Check out the numbers this week! Recovering from its post-holiday hangover, the Marin County real estate market did just fine--thank you very much. There were 63 new listings of Single Family Residences (SFR) but inventory actually went down. 62 listings went contingent, 30 pending, 36 sold, 34 withdrawn or temporarily off the market. There were 83 SFR price reductions, and YTD unit volume remained steady at -29%.
Condominiums had an excellent week too. Continuing their recent popularity, 19 units sold during the period, while only 18 were listed. 26 went contingent, 14 pending, and there were 10 expired and 8 withdrawn or temporarily off the market. Market inventory was reduced from 401 to 391 units, and YTD condo unit sales improved again to -31% vs. last year, continuing the recent trend.
The price of gas began to drop, the weather warmed up, and suddenly people felt a bit better, while the stock market struggled to get back into profitable territory, showing renewed signs of life in spite of many challenges and continued adverse economic news. DataQuick, the La Jolla based source of real estate statistics continued its string of pessimistic reports while allowing that San Francisco and Marin Counties were better off than most other Bay Area markets. (read the full article at http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080717.aspx ).
Who is right? We'll find out soon enough. Meanwhile, lots of activity here with buyers getting tremendous value, especially in Novato and San Rafael, and particularly in Condominiums which languished for too long and are now enjoying renewed popularity courtesy of their relative affordability--- a great opportunity for first-time buyers or downsizing sellers. Let's see what happens next! Our market typically enjoys increased activity in the fall. Buyers who have been waiting may recognize the opportunity they have been waiting for is here now. Experienced local real estate professionals can help mine the gold in this market-----they know values, and are an important resource for buyers and sellers alike.
More next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Check out the numbers this week! Recovering from its post-holiday hangover, the Marin County real estate market did just fine--thank you very much. There were 63 new listings of Single Family Residences (SFR) but inventory actually went down. 62 listings went contingent, 30 pending, 36 sold, 34 withdrawn or temporarily off the market. There were 83 SFR price reductions, and YTD unit volume remained steady at -29%.
Condominiums had an excellent week too. Continuing their recent popularity, 19 units sold during the period, while only 18 were listed. 26 went contingent, 14 pending, and there were 10 expired and 8 withdrawn or temporarily off the market. Market inventory was reduced from 401 to 391 units, and YTD condo unit sales improved again to -31% vs. last year, continuing the recent trend.
The price of gas began to drop, the weather warmed up, and suddenly people felt a bit better, while the stock market struggled to get back into profitable territory, showing renewed signs of life in spite of many challenges and continued adverse economic news. DataQuick, the La Jolla based source of real estate statistics continued its string of pessimistic reports while allowing that San Francisco and Marin Counties were better off than most other Bay Area markets. (read the full article at http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080717.aspx ).
Who is right? We'll find out soon enough. Meanwhile, lots of activity here with buyers getting tremendous value, especially in Novato and San Rafael, and particularly in Condominiums which languished for too long and are now enjoying renewed popularity courtesy of their relative affordability--- a great opportunity for first-time buyers or downsizing sellers. Let's see what happens next! Our market typically enjoys increased activity in the fall. Buyers who have been waiting may recognize the opportunity they have been waiting for is here now. Experienced local real estate professionals can help mine the gold in this market-----they know values, and are an important resource for buyers and sellers alike.
More next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Thursday, July 10, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 07.08.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
As I mentioned last week, June's accepted offers were exceptionally high.
Single Family Residences (SFR) for June had 291 accepted offers and 290 new listings. This compared to 212 accepted offers in '07 out of 304 new listings, and 226 with 387 new listings in '06. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 100.3% in June, compared to 69.7% in '07 and 58.4% in '06. For Condominiums, the numbers were 93 new listings in June, and 97 accepted offers, or 104.3%, compared to 54 out of 101 new listings in contract in June of '07, or 53.5%, and 51 out of 116 new listings in contract in '06, or 44%. And the past two years are years we have been holding up as a former higher standard. Active inventory is still modest, and sales activity has picked up, a very encouraging sign.
Percentage in contract continues the small, steady advances we have been used to seeing recently. Overall SFR's just below a "balanced" market at 23.67% in contract, up about .3% from last week. The below $1 Million "starter" homes are up for the week, about .9% to 28.95% in contract. Homes between $1million and $3million had a slight dip in percentage in contract and still a "buyers' " market, while homes over $3million improved a bit but still considered a "strong buyers' " market at14.4% in contract. Sales activity for the week was about 28 units, compared to 34 units in 2007, cumulative sales total for the year to date is down about 30% at 801 units vs. 1145 at this time last year.
Condominium inventory actually dropped a bit, and percentage in contract increased again this week to 27.6% overall, and to 28.34% for condo's under $1million, although sales activity was very modest at only about 7 units for the week. YTD condo unit sales at195 vs. 305 at this time last year, and average sold price is $547,067 vs $636,734 at this time last year.
Market still trying to find its proper level but seems to be stabilizing at the lower end and may be turning. Proper pricing, preparation, presentation still critical and markets are segmented not only by city, but by neighborhood. Experienced local real estate professionals who know their markets definitely add value in the current environment.
More next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
As I mentioned last week, June's accepted offers were exceptionally high.
Single Family Residences (SFR) for June had 291 accepted offers and 290 new listings. This compared to 212 accepted offers in '07 out of 304 new listings, and 226 with 387 new listings in '06. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 100.3% in June, compared to 69.7% in '07 and 58.4% in '06. For Condominiums, the numbers were 93 new listings in June, and 97 accepted offers, or 104.3%, compared to 54 out of 101 new listings in contract in June of '07, or 53.5%, and 51 out of 116 new listings in contract in '06, or 44%. And the past two years are years we have been holding up as a former higher standard. Active inventory is still modest, and sales activity has picked up, a very encouraging sign.
Percentage in contract continues the small, steady advances we have been used to seeing recently. Overall SFR's just below a "balanced" market at 23.67% in contract, up about .3% from last week. The below $1 Million "starter" homes are up for the week, about .9% to 28.95% in contract. Homes between $1million and $3million had a slight dip in percentage in contract and still a "buyers' " market, while homes over $3million improved a bit but still considered a "strong buyers' " market at14.4% in contract. Sales activity for the week was about 28 units, compared to 34 units in 2007, cumulative sales total for the year to date is down about 30% at 801 units vs. 1145 at this time last year.
Condominium inventory actually dropped a bit, and percentage in contract increased again this week to 27.6% overall, and to 28.34% for condo's under $1million, although sales activity was very modest at only about 7 units for the week. YTD condo unit sales at195 vs. 305 at this time last year, and average sold price is $547,067 vs $636,734 at this time last year.
Market still trying to find its proper level but seems to be stabilizing at the lower end and may be turning. Proper pricing, preparation, presentation still critical and markets are segmented not only by city, but by neighborhood. Experienced local real estate professionals who know their markets definitely add value in the current environment.
More next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Thursday, July 3, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 07.01.2008
7.01.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
A Happy and Safe 4th of July weekend to all.
City-by-City report for June shows 7 towns and cities with increased percentage in contract, and 6 down. Greenbrae with the biggest increase, going from just over 17% in contract in May, to over 40% at the end of June and making the transition from a buyers' market to a strong sellers' market in the process. San Rafael and Novato increasing their share in contract again, with Novato into sellers' market territory for the second month in a row and San Rafael within a whisker of "balanced", with another increase since last month. Sellers in these areas can enjoy the more favorable environment but should realize that the current market is very price-sensitive and can change at any time.
Active inventory for both Single Family Residences and Condo's has actually come down a bit since last month, the second month in a row for both. June's accepted offers for SFR's amounted to 99.5% of new listings, and for Condo's, the figure was 104.5%, so the market absorbed all the new inventory that became available during the month. All this in spite of the economic turmoil and uncertainty we discussed here last week.
Looks as though we could be in the middle of a market turnaround, barring further unforseen developments.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
A Happy and Safe 4th of July weekend to all.
City-by-City report for June shows 7 towns and cities with increased percentage in contract, and 6 down. Greenbrae with the biggest increase, going from just over 17% in contract in May, to over 40% at the end of June and making the transition from a buyers' market to a strong sellers' market in the process. San Rafael and Novato increasing their share in contract again, with Novato into sellers' market territory for the second month in a row and San Rafael within a whisker of "balanced", with another increase since last month. Sellers in these areas can enjoy the more favorable environment but should realize that the current market is very price-sensitive and can change at any time.
Active inventory for both Single Family Residences and Condo's has actually come down a bit since last month, the second month in a row for both. June's accepted offers for SFR's amounted to 99.5% of new listings, and for Condo's, the figure was 104.5%, so the market absorbed all the new inventory that became available during the month. All this in spite of the economic turmoil and uncertainty we discussed here last week.
Looks as though we could be in the middle of a market turnaround, barring further unforseen developments.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 27, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.24.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/ )
An interesting week. Fires elsewhere in the state sent a haze rolling into the County, obscuring views and smelling reminiscent of a smoky Scout camp-out. Temperatures spiked to 100-plus degrees and then plunged back to the 60's or lower and everyone dragged their jackets back out of the closet. Oil closed at record prices around $140 per barrel, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted again. Buyers were feeling far from relaxed and comfortable, and sellers were left wondering about the value in their homes.
Through all of this, the Marin County real estate market remained amazingly calm. Carolyn Said, in the June 27 SF Chronicle business section quoted USC's Raphael Bostic, saying that "San Jose and San Francisco were in the best shape of major California cities, with home prices flattening, instead of plunging like those in Southern California and inland." The thrust of the article was that the costs of owning a home are now nearly as low as the costs of renting in many areas, and that this should stabilize the market. Business Week obviously had a different opion, and ran an article under the headline "The Housing Abyss" "Why the worst may be yet to come---" http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_27/b4091032364818.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
Newly appointed HUD Secretary Steve Preston has been quoted as saying he is optimistic about the passage of a bill currently in Congress to allow hundreds of thousands of qualified homeowners to refinance into affordable government insures mortgages.
And the Wall Street Journal ran a headline "Market's Fall Raises Fears on Banks"
So what is the truth, and what are we to think? Well, as a French friend of mine is fond of saying "Courage, mon ami." Times like this offer opportunity. A check with local mortgage brokers revealed that although rates last week hit their high for the year, they have receded significantly since then, due in part to the Fed leaving rates unchanged, and also to the selloff of the stock market which sent money fleeing to the relative safety of bonds, increasing the potential pool of mortgage money. The increase in FHA loan levels has had a significant positive effect on the availability of funds, and there is even a program called "203K" that allows buyers to purchase a home and then get extra funds to fix it up. Although lending guidelines have been tightened, money is available for qualified borrowers. And prices are very attractive.
Inventory for both single family residences and condo's remained relatively stable, and percentage in contract actually increased slightly in most market segments. 46 single family residences sold during the 7 days ending on June 24, not that far off the 52 that sold during the same period last year. As a result, the SFR YTD unit sales closed the gap a bit from -32% to -28%. During the same period, 16 condominium units sold, vs. 15 last year, narrowing the condo YTD unit sales gap as well, from -38% to -35.8%.
My opinion? Great opportunities in this market. If history is any indicator prices will be headed up and people will be telling stories about the one that got away.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/ )
An interesting week. Fires elsewhere in the state sent a haze rolling into the County, obscuring views and smelling reminiscent of a smoky Scout camp-out. Temperatures spiked to 100-plus degrees and then plunged back to the 60's or lower and everyone dragged their jackets back out of the closet. Oil closed at record prices around $140 per barrel, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted again. Buyers were feeling far from relaxed and comfortable, and sellers were left wondering about the value in their homes.
Through all of this, the Marin County real estate market remained amazingly calm. Carolyn Said, in the June 27 SF Chronicle business section quoted USC's Raphael Bostic, saying that "San Jose and San Francisco were in the best shape of major California cities, with home prices flattening, instead of plunging like those in Southern California and inland." The thrust of the article was that the costs of owning a home are now nearly as low as the costs of renting in many areas, and that this should stabilize the market. Business Week obviously had a different opion, and ran an article under the headline "The Housing Abyss" "Why the worst may be yet to come---" http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_27/b4091032364818.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
Newly appointed HUD Secretary Steve Preston has been quoted as saying he is optimistic about the passage of a bill currently in Congress to allow hundreds of thousands of qualified homeowners to refinance into affordable government insures mortgages.
And the Wall Street Journal ran a headline "Market's Fall Raises Fears on Banks"
So what is the truth, and what are we to think? Well, as a French friend of mine is fond of saying "Courage, mon ami." Times like this offer opportunity. A check with local mortgage brokers revealed that although rates last week hit their high for the year, they have receded significantly since then, due in part to the Fed leaving rates unchanged, and also to the selloff of the stock market which sent money fleeing to the relative safety of bonds, increasing the potential pool of mortgage money. The increase in FHA loan levels has had a significant positive effect on the availability of funds, and there is even a program called "203K" that allows buyers to purchase a home and then get extra funds to fix it up. Although lending guidelines have been tightened, money is available for qualified borrowers. And prices are very attractive.
Inventory for both single family residences and condo's remained relatively stable, and percentage in contract actually increased slightly in most market segments. 46 single family residences sold during the 7 days ending on June 24, not that far off the 52 that sold during the same period last year. As a result, the SFR YTD unit sales closed the gap a bit from -32% to -28%. During the same period, 16 condominium units sold, vs. 15 last year, narrowing the condo YTD unit sales gap as well, from -38% to -35.8%.
My opinion? Great opportunities in this market. If history is any indicator prices will be headed up and people will be telling stories about the one that got away.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 20, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.17.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
6.17.2008
Hello Everyone,
The Marin County real estate market results for the past week were mixed.
DataQuick, the LaJolla, Ca. based real estate news service, reported as follows:
"A total of 6,216 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area in May. That was down 1.5 percent from 6,310 in April, and down 23.1 percent from 8,080 in May 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported. Last month was the slowest May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988."
A bit of a comedown from April. Data Quick's commentary on that:
"April had broken a seven-month string of record-low months that began after the credit crunch hit last August, where each month had the lowest sales for that particular month since 1988. April saw a record month-to-month sales increase of 28.8 percent from March. However, it appears at least a portion of the April gain was the result of escrows taking longer to close this year. Some sales that would normally have closed in March, seasonally a strong month, likely spilled into April."
(full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080618.aspx )
Marin County single family residences slipped from 22.9% to 21.87% in contract on an overall basis, a buyers' market. The $0-$999K single family home market, which briefly ventured into sellers' market territory in our last report slipped from 26.04% to 25.3% in contract, now back in the "balanced" range. 46 Single family residences closed escrow in the county for the 7day period ending June 17, compared to 43 last year. As a result, YTD SFR unit sales compared to 2007 improved a bit, from -34% to -32.3%. Average YTD list price for units sold, $1,420,038, average sold price, $1,369,833, average Days on Market, 77. Comparable numbers in 2007 were $1,390,183, $1,365,386, and 70. We are now near the halfway point of the year, and entering a traditionally slower sales period as people turn their attention to vacations and travel. Let's watch and see what develops in the next few weeks.
Condominium sales in the County fared a bit less well but there was still some good news. Condo's overall stayed "balanced" at 25.83% in contract, a slight increase from the previous week's 25.06%. Condo's under $1million increased from 26.08% to 26.82% in contract, hanging in there in sellers' market territory for the second week. (Sellers, take this with the proverbial grain of salt; proper pricing is still critical.) In spite of this, closed condo escrows for the 7 days ended on June 17 were only 6 units, compared to 14 in 2007. Total YTD units sold slipped from -37.2% to -38% compared to 2007.
Average list price was $580,381. Average sold price $563,811, and DOM at 92. These figures compared to 2007's $641,797, $632,794, and 75. Obviously, condo prices have come down considerably over the course of the year, pushed by REO's (bank owned real estate) selling at low prices, particularly in Novato.
Marin County real estate market continues to be segmented, with no true "average" Marin home. Market is neighborhood by neighborhood, and the above trends are only averages. It is critical during this market to have the advice of an experienced local REALTOR who is familiar with the specific neighborhood. Certain areas are doing spectacularly well, others more challenging. Marin County is a great place to work and live, expansion is limited, and there is a lot of demand for homes in the County. This insulates us a bit, and the swings of our market are considerably less intense than elsewhere in the state or the nation but local real estate is still sensitive to the economic news of the moment. Historically, Marin County real estate has been an excellent investment and some of the current favorable prices offer buyers an opportunity to get a great home at an affordable price. What could be better?
more next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
6.17.2008
Hello Everyone,
The Marin County real estate market results for the past week were mixed.
DataQuick, the LaJolla, Ca. based real estate news service, reported as follows:
"A total of 6,216 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area in May. That was down 1.5 percent from 6,310 in April, and down 23.1 percent from 8,080 in May 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported. Last month was the slowest May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988."
A bit of a comedown from April. Data Quick's commentary on that:
"April had broken a seven-month string of record-low months that began after the credit crunch hit last August, where each month had the lowest sales for that particular month since 1988. April saw a record month-to-month sales increase of 28.8 percent from March. However, it appears at least a portion of the April gain was the result of escrows taking longer to close this year. Some sales that would normally have closed in March, seasonally a strong month, likely spilled into April."
(full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080618.aspx )
Marin County single family residences slipped from 22.9% to 21.87% in contract on an overall basis, a buyers' market. The $0-$999K single family home market, which briefly ventured into sellers' market territory in our last report slipped from 26.04% to 25.3% in contract, now back in the "balanced" range. 46 Single family residences closed escrow in the county for the 7day period ending June 17, compared to 43 last year. As a result, YTD SFR unit sales compared to 2007 improved a bit, from -34% to -32.3%. Average YTD list price for units sold, $1,420,038, average sold price, $1,369,833, average Days on Market, 77. Comparable numbers in 2007 were $1,390,183, $1,365,386, and 70. We are now near the halfway point of the year, and entering a traditionally slower sales period as people turn their attention to vacations and travel. Let's watch and see what develops in the next few weeks.
Condominium sales in the County fared a bit less well but there was still some good news. Condo's overall stayed "balanced" at 25.83% in contract, a slight increase from the previous week's 25.06%. Condo's under $1million increased from 26.08% to 26.82% in contract, hanging in there in sellers' market territory for the second week. (Sellers, take this with the proverbial grain of salt; proper pricing is still critical.) In spite of this, closed condo escrows for the 7 days ended on June 17 were only 6 units, compared to 14 in 2007. Total YTD units sold slipped from -37.2% to -38% compared to 2007.
Average list price was $580,381. Average sold price $563,811, and DOM at 92. These figures compared to 2007's $641,797, $632,794, and 75. Obviously, condo prices have come down considerably over the course of the year, pushed by REO's (bank owned real estate) selling at low prices, particularly in Novato.
Marin County real estate market continues to be segmented, with no true "average" Marin home. Market is neighborhood by neighborhood, and the above trends are only averages. It is critical during this market to have the advice of an experienced local REALTOR who is familiar with the specific neighborhood. Certain areas are doing spectacularly well, others more challenging. Marin County is a great place to work and live, expansion is limited, and there is a lot of demand for homes in the County. This insulates us a bit, and the swings of our market are considerably less intense than elsewhere in the state or the nation but local real estate is still sensitive to the economic news of the moment. Historically, Marin County real estate has been an excellent investment and some of the current favorable prices offer buyers an opportunity to get a great home at an affordable price. What could be better?
more next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 13, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.10.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Look at what has happened! After making continuous progress over a number of weeks the SFR and Condo markets both showed up with good news last week. As of June 10, Single Family Residences overall were at 22.9% in contract, still a buyers' market, but close to balanced. HOWEVER, SFR's from $0-$999,999 clocked in at 26.04% in contract county-wide, officially in sellers' market territory for the first time in a long time. SFR listing activity was flat, and homes above $2million are a bit soft at only 18.6% in contract. $3million-plus properties a major buyers' opportunity at only 10.6% in contract. Sellers- This is a time to be optimistic, but not a time to push the envelope on pricing. Savvy buyers still looking for value, but writing offers and buying homes.
Condo's made progress during the week as well, with the overall condo market balanced at 25.06% in contract and the under-$1million condo market at 26.08% in contract---believe it or not, in sellers' market territory. Still large pockets of condo listings that have been on the market for a while, and this makes ambitious pricing unwise. But, well-located, right-priced condo's in desirable areas are selling.
This welcome news, together with last week's City-by-City report's (included again in this week's attachments) data showing Novato officially back in sellers' market territory indicate steady progress in our local markets. Year to date units sold continue to be off substantially (-37% condo and-34% SFR) from last year, but recent sales activity is steady and improving. Lots of uncertainty in the economy and with the price of gas going up weekly and even daily, and the Dow Jones bouncing up and down like a golden retriever's green tennis ball. Folks are being careful about their money and financial commitments. Still, buyers are recognizing tremendous value in certain segments of the Marin County housing market and voting their confidence with the expenditure of their housing dollars. Many experienced local real estate agents are saying this is a great time to buy. Interest rates are low, loans are available, and home prices are reasonable and reasonably stable. Marin County housing dreams are coming true for many buyers who recognize value and act on their convictions.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Look at what has happened! After making continuous progress over a number of weeks the SFR and Condo markets both showed up with good news last week. As of June 10, Single Family Residences overall were at 22.9% in contract, still a buyers' market, but close to balanced. HOWEVER, SFR's from $0-$999,999 clocked in at 26.04% in contract county-wide, officially in sellers' market territory for the first time in a long time. SFR listing activity was flat, and homes above $2million are a bit soft at only 18.6% in contract. $3million-plus properties a major buyers' opportunity at only 10.6% in contract. Sellers- This is a time to be optimistic, but not a time to push the envelope on pricing. Savvy buyers still looking for value, but writing offers and buying homes.
Condo's made progress during the week as well, with the overall condo market balanced at 25.06% in contract and the under-$1million condo market at 26.08% in contract---believe it or not, in sellers' market territory. Still large pockets of condo listings that have been on the market for a while, and this makes ambitious pricing unwise. But, well-located, right-priced condo's in desirable areas are selling.
This welcome news, together with last week's City-by-City report's (included again in this week's attachments) data showing Novato officially back in sellers' market territory indicate steady progress in our local markets. Year to date units sold continue to be off substantially (-37% condo and-34% SFR) from last year, but recent sales activity is steady and improving. Lots of uncertainty in the economy and with the price of gas going up weekly and even daily, and the Dow Jones bouncing up and down like a golden retriever's green tennis ball. Folks are being careful about their money and financial commitments. Still, buyers are recognizing tremendous value in certain segments of the Marin County housing market and voting their confidence with the expenditure of their housing dollars. Many experienced local real estate agents are saying this is a great time to buy. Interest rates are low, loans are available, and home prices are reasonable and reasonably stable. Marin County housing dreams are coming true for many buyers who recognize value and act on their convictions.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 6, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.03.2008
06.03.2008
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows a number of changes. Of the 13 cities and towns monitored, the percentage in contract increased in 5, remained the same in one, and decreased in 7. Significant changes include: Mill Valley made the jump to sellers' market territory, going from 24.5% in contract to 27% in contract; Kentfield back in sellers' market territory at 30.56% in contract vs. last month's 17.65%; San Rafael, continuing on its upward trend, coming in with another increase to 23.37%, up again from last month's 22.49%; And the big news, Novato at 26% in contract, technically making it a sellers' market for the first time in a very very long time with 120 of 460 listed properties in contract as of June 3.
During the month of May, there were 317 new SFR and 103 new Condo listings in the County, vs. 317 and 101 in May '07, or roughly the same number in each category as last year. The dramatic change is that there were 306 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's during the month. This gives a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 96.5% for SFR's and 84.5% for Condo's, indicating that almost all the new inventory is being absorbed by buyers. Having said that, I must add that prudent sellers must still be very careful about preparation, presentation, and especially pricing, as buyers expect value, are very discriminating and are definitely not writing any blank checks. Expired or cancelled listings for the month of May much higher than same time last year with SFR's at 130 vs. 07's 57, and Condo's at 64 vs 34 in May of '07. Days on market for SFR's at 74 vs. 64 last year and condo's at 93 vs.74 in May of '07.
SFR pricing holding up a bit better than Condo's. SFR sold average $ for May at $1,457,000 vs $1,395,000 in '07 and Condo sold average $ at $544,000 vs. $635,000 last year. Keep in mind that these numbers depend upon the specific units sold during the month so they are not directly comparable due to small sample size of a short time period. Numbers of units sold are still down as well, with SFR's at 594 YTD vs. 904 YTD last year, or -34.3%, and Condo's showing 147 YTD units sold vs 233 last year, or -36.9%.
Activity continues to be brisk in local real estate offices, many with an encouraging number of newly opened escrows. Agents generally upbeat and many feel the market has stabilized and is steady/improving.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows a number of changes. Of the 13 cities and towns monitored, the percentage in contract increased in 5, remained the same in one, and decreased in 7. Significant changes include: Mill Valley made the jump to sellers' market territory, going from 24.5% in contract to 27% in contract; Kentfield back in sellers' market territory at 30.56% in contract vs. last month's 17.65%; San Rafael, continuing on its upward trend, coming in with another increase to 23.37%, up again from last month's 22.49%; And the big news, Novato at 26% in contract, technically making it a sellers' market for the first time in a very very long time with 120 of 460 listed properties in contract as of June 3.
During the month of May, there were 317 new SFR and 103 new Condo listings in the County, vs. 317 and 101 in May '07, or roughly the same number in each category as last year. The dramatic change is that there were 306 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's during the month. This gives a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 96.5% for SFR's and 84.5% for Condo's, indicating that almost all the new inventory is being absorbed by buyers. Having said that, I must add that prudent sellers must still be very careful about preparation, presentation, and especially pricing, as buyers expect value, are very discriminating and are definitely not writing any blank checks. Expired or cancelled listings for the month of May much higher than same time last year with SFR's at 130 vs. 07's 57, and Condo's at 64 vs 34 in May of '07. Days on market for SFR's at 74 vs. 64 last year and condo's at 93 vs.74 in May of '07.
SFR pricing holding up a bit better than Condo's. SFR sold average $ for May at $1,457,000 vs $1,395,000 in '07 and Condo sold average $ at $544,000 vs. $635,000 last year. Keep in mind that these numbers depend upon the specific units sold during the month so they are not directly comparable due to small sample size of a short time period. Numbers of units sold are still down as well, with SFR's at 594 YTD vs. 904 YTD last year, or -34.3%, and Condo's showing 147 YTD units sold vs 233 last year, or -36.9%.
Activity continues to be brisk in local real estate offices, many with an encouraging number of newly opened escrows. Agents generally upbeat and many feel the market has stabilized and is steady/improving.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 30, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.27.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
SFR market coming in last week with a pleasant surprise---inventory down slightly to 1167 from 1171 the previous week. Percentage in contract up in all SFR price points except the high end- over $3 million which decreased based on a change of only 3 additional listings and 2 fewer properties in contract. Big news in Marin County SFR's last week was that the $0-$999K price point went into "balanced market" territory from "buyers", and the $2 million to $3 million segment made the jump from buyers' to sellers' market territory with an increase from 23.7% to 27%. Whether this represents a true market turning point or is a result of fewer than normal new listings in the "pre-holiday" period remains to be seen. Based on open escrows though, it appears the the SFR market is ticking along nicely. YTD SFR units sold at 547 vs 838 at this time last year, or down 34.7% nearly even with last week's statistic of -34.2%.
Condo inventory increased during the week, but not by much--2 units, to be exact. And units in contract increased enough to bring overall condo percentage in contract up to 23.5. The under $1million range, representing all but 18 of listed condo's fared even better, increasing to 24.48% in contract, with its chest against the tape, ready to break through into the "balanced market" range for the first time in a long time. Condo YTD sold units at 140 vs. last year's 218 at the same time. Still lower, but continuing to narrow the gap which now sits at -35.7% vs. -37% last week.
La Jolla-based Data Quick, the real estate statistics source used by many media outlets, came around this week after "draping crepe" for quite some time now. A May 20 article stated:
"Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability is improving and that an increasing number of fence sitters have decided they like today's lower prices, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area in April. That was up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 for April 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The month-to-month jump was the strongest for any March/April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. "
This reference courtesy of CB SF Bay President Larry Klapow. Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080520.aspx
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
SFR market coming in last week with a pleasant surprise---inventory down slightly to 1167 from 1171 the previous week. Percentage in contract up in all SFR price points except the high end- over $3 million which decreased based on a change of only 3 additional listings and 2 fewer properties in contract. Big news in Marin County SFR's last week was that the $0-$999K price point went into "balanced market" territory from "buyers", and the $2 million to $3 million segment made the jump from buyers' to sellers' market territory with an increase from 23.7% to 27%. Whether this represents a true market turning point or is a result of fewer than normal new listings in the "pre-holiday" period remains to be seen. Based on open escrows though, it appears the the SFR market is ticking along nicely. YTD SFR units sold at 547 vs 838 at this time last year, or down 34.7% nearly even with last week's statistic of -34.2%.
Condo inventory increased during the week, but not by much--2 units, to be exact. And units in contract increased enough to bring overall condo percentage in contract up to 23.5. The under $1million range, representing all but 18 of listed condo's fared even better, increasing to 24.48% in contract, with its chest against the tape, ready to break through into the "balanced market" range for the first time in a long time. Condo YTD sold units at 140 vs. last year's 218 at the same time. Still lower, but continuing to narrow the gap which now sits at -35.7% vs. -37% last week.
La Jolla-based Data Quick, the real estate statistics source used by many media outlets, came around this week after "draping crepe" for quite some time now. A May 20 article stated:
"Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability is improving and that an increasing number of fence sitters have decided they like today's lower prices, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area in April. That was up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 for April 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The month-to-month jump was the strongest for any March/April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. "
This reference courtesy of CB SF Bay President Larry Klapow. Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080520.aspx
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, May 24, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.20.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com )
The Marin County real estate market continues to perk along, albeit at a lower level than the last two years, but within that framework it is holding its own. Several newspaper articles in the past week, from the national level on down to our own Marin IJ ran articles referencing improving conditions in real estate. Some excerpts from the IJ article (May 21):
"You are starting to see people move into the market, attracted by the low prices"--- "We are as close to a buyer's market as we are likely to be"- Corina Rollins, College of Marin Real Estate Instructor
"Marin remains 'a unique market that doesn't seem to be too concerned with the ups and downs of mainstream meat and potatoes real estate in the state of California' "--- "The issues that seem to concern Marin homeowners are not the issues that concern 97 percent of homeowners"- DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, who was also quoted as saying that Marin was the first county in the state to exceed a million-dollar median price one year ago "And Marin is going to be the first to re-cross it".
So, in the press, gloom and doom are no longer the order of the day, and since the media normally lag these trends by several months, it is probably safe to say that our recovery is underway. That being said, the local market took a breather last week from its recent steady improvement. Inventory increased slightly, and percentage in contract was mixed, with some up, some down, but only fractionally, so for all intents and purposes it was a pretty level week. Accepted offers so far this month are 189 for SFR, vs. 236 for the entire month of May last year, and Condo's 49, month to date vs. 07's 54 total for the month. My guess is we'll get there or we'll get very close. YTD units sold for both SFR (-34%) and Condo (-37%) remained even on the boards, compared to last week's figures.
Local real estate offices enjoying an influx of new open escrows, and many agents upbeat about the state of the market. Long Holiday weekend probably puts a slight damper on sales activity for the next week, but is actually a great time for serious buyers to hang in there and beat the crowds----an opportunity to sidestep some of the potential competition.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com )
The Marin County real estate market continues to perk along, albeit at a lower level than the last two years, but within that framework it is holding its own. Several newspaper articles in the past week, from the national level on down to our own Marin IJ ran articles referencing improving conditions in real estate. Some excerpts from the IJ article (May 21):
"You are starting to see people move into the market, attracted by the low prices"--- "We are as close to a buyer's market as we are likely to be"- Corina Rollins, College of Marin Real Estate Instructor
"Marin remains 'a unique market that doesn't seem to be too concerned with the ups and downs of mainstream meat and potatoes real estate in the state of California' "--- "The issues that seem to concern Marin homeowners are not the issues that concern 97 percent of homeowners"- DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, who was also quoted as saying that Marin was the first county in the state to exceed a million-dollar median price one year ago "And Marin is going to be the first to re-cross it".
So, in the press, gloom and doom are no longer the order of the day, and since the media normally lag these trends by several months, it is probably safe to say that our recovery is underway. That being said, the local market took a breather last week from its recent steady improvement. Inventory increased slightly, and percentage in contract was mixed, with some up, some down, but only fractionally, so for all intents and purposes it was a pretty level week. Accepted offers so far this month are 189 for SFR, vs. 236 for the entire month of May last year, and Condo's 49, month to date vs. 07's 54 total for the month. My guess is we'll get there or we'll get very close. YTD units sold for both SFR (-34%) and Condo (-37%) remained even on the boards, compared to last week's figures.
Local real estate offices enjoying an influx of new open escrows, and many agents upbeat about the state of the market. Long Holiday weekend probably puts a slight damper on sales activity for the next week, but is actually a great time for serious buyers to hang in there and beat the crowds----an opportunity to sidestep some of the potential competition.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 16, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.13.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Open houses well-attended. Lots of new open escrows. A number of multiple offers, some over asking price. Some properties selling quickly too. Still quite a bit of buyer/seller negotiation going on though, especially homes that have been on the market for a while.
Inventory up again this week in all categories and percentage in contract up too, in most, but not all price points. Exceptions are: SFR's from $1M to $1.99M, dropping less than half a point, SFR's over $3m, down 1.5 points; Condo's overall, down one tenth of a point, largely due to the over $1M segment with very very small segment size, and on the strength of only a 1 unit change. Condo's in the $0-$999K range actually picking up 2 tenths of a point, ending at 23.6% in contract. Seems that buyers are quietly recognizing the value of condo's at present prices in this market and buying now.
YTD unit sales continue to be off significantly from last year, but going in the right direction. SFR's narrowed the gap from -35.5% to -34.2% and Condo's showing improvement from -39% to -37% from May 6-13.
Hotsheet shows 74 new SFR listings during the week, and 66 contingent, with most of the new listings being absorbed. 32 new condo listings and 19 contingent. Days on market for SFR's =82, compared to 75 at this time last year. Condo's, 94 vs. 77 at this time in 2007.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Open houses well-attended. Lots of new open escrows. A number of multiple offers, some over asking price. Some properties selling quickly too. Still quite a bit of buyer/seller negotiation going on though, especially homes that have been on the market for a while.
Inventory up again this week in all categories and percentage in contract up too, in most, but not all price points. Exceptions are: SFR's from $1M to $1.99M, dropping less than half a point, SFR's over $3m, down 1.5 points; Condo's overall, down one tenth of a point, largely due to the over $1M segment with very very small segment size, and on the strength of only a 1 unit change. Condo's in the $0-$999K range actually picking up 2 tenths of a point, ending at 23.6% in contract. Seems that buyers are quietly recognizing the value of condo's at present prices in this market and buying now.
YTD unit sales continue to be off significantly from last year, but going in the right direction. SFR's narrowed the gap from -35.5% to -34.2% and Condo's showing improvement from -39% to -37% from May 6-13.
Hotsheet shows 74 new SFR listings during the week, and 66 contingent, with most of the new listings being absorbed. 32 new condo listings and 19 contingent. Days on market for SFR's =82, compared to 75 at this time last year. Condo's, 94 vs. 77 at this time in 2007.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.06.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows a number of changes. Keep in mind that many of these towns and cities represent small markets, so a few new listings or a few extra homes sold can cause swings that don't necessarily represent the direction of the market. Items of note: Greenbrae, last month a (very)strong buyers' market with 0 of 18 properties in contract now buyers' with 5 of 26 properties, or 19.2% in contract. Kentfield, moved from strong sellers' with 38% in contract (12 of 31) to buyers' at 17.65% (6 of 34), and Ross, which was a strong buyers' market at 8.33% (1 of 12) now a balanced market with 5 of 20 properties in contract, or 25%. San Rafael, continuing its improvement, moved up again from 21.5% in contract to 22.49%---still a buyers' market, but not by much. This in spite of 63 additional listings since the last report. Buyers looking at San Rafael still in a good position, but probably will not benefit from further waiting if "sitting on the fence". Novato, with 37 more listings than the last report, took a slight pause from its recent gains, but percentage in contract, currently 19.7%, lost only about 3/4 of a point. Corte Madera, a perennial favorite, enjoyed a tremendous rebound, moving from buyers' at 24% in contract to sellers' at 32.6% in contract--- this in spite of a large increase in listings (from 29 to 49).
Condominium and Single Family Residence Inventory both up again. Levels marginally higher than this time the last couple of years, but YTD unit sales improved again last week to -36%Condo and -35.5% SFR (compared to this time in 2007).
Office activity brisk, with lots of new open files, and many closing too! Much talk among agents of quick sales and multiple offers, which are back again, but still not the rule by any means. Many indicators point to an active and improving spring market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows a number of changes. Keep in mind that many of these towns and cities represent small markets, so a few new listings or a few extra homes sold can cause swings that don't necessarily represent the direction of the market. Items of note: Greenbrae, last month a (very)strong buyers' market with 0 of 18 properties in contract now buyers' with 5 of 26 properties, or 19.2% in contract. Kentfield, moved from strong sellers' with 38% in contract (12 of 31) to buyers' at 17.65% (6 of 34), and Ross, which was a strong buyers' market at 8.33% (1 of 12) now a balanced market with 5 of 20 properties in contract, or 25%. San Rafael, continuing its improvement, moved up again from 21.5% in contract to 22.49%---still a buyers' market, but not by much. This in spite of 63 additional listings since the last report. Buyers looking at San Rafael still in a good position, but probably will not benefit from further waiting if "sitting on the fence". Novato, with 37 more listings than the last report, took a slight pause from its recent gains, but percentage in contract, currently 19.7%, lost only about 3/4 of a point. Corte Madera, a perennial favorite, enjoyed a tremendous rebound, moving from buyers' at 24% in contract to sellers' at 32.6% in contract--- this in spite of a large increase in listings (from 29 to 49).
Condominium and Single Family Residence Inventory both up again. Levels marginally higher than this time the last couple of years, but YTD unit sales improved again last week to -36%Condo and -35.5% SFR (compared to this time in 2007).
Office activity brisk, with lots of new open files, and many closing too! Much talk among agents of quick sales and multiple offers, which are back again, but still not the rule by any means. Many indicators point to an active and improving spring market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 2, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.29.2008
Hello Everyone,
Percentage in contract of both SFR's and Condo's continued to increase last week, following the recent trend. Two exceptions to this were: SFR's in the $1M to $1.99M range, falling less than 1%, but enough to move from "balanced" to "buyers' " (In my opinion not enough of a move to be significant); Condo's in the $1M to $1.99M range, losing 5%, but due to the small size of that market, representing only 1 unit, again, not significant. SFR's over $3M still "strong buyers' " with 13 of 93 properties on the market in contract. A great opportunity for high-end buyers to negotiate.
There were 244 accepted offers on Single Family residences in April. This was the greatest number of accepted offers in the 23 months that my (MarketQuest) report showed, and represented 27% of inventory, and 79% of new listings. In April of last year, there were 216 accepted offers representing 24% of inventory. There were 66 accepted offers on condo's, representing 21% of inventory and 88% of new listings. Again, this number was the highest in the last 23 months, and compared to 54 accepted offers (18% of inventory) in April of 2007.
The Marin County real estate market does appear to be improving, with many market segments approaching "balanced", or even venturing into or close to "sellers' " territory. Reduced YTD unit sales (-36.6% SFR and 39%Condo vs. 2007) make this a time to be careful about pricing, preparation, presentation and thorough with marketing. But not a time to test the market with high prices. Properties that warrant more than the asking price usually attract multiple offers, while overpriced properties often sit on the market, ultimately selling for less than if they had been properly priced at the outset. Market in general is active, with attractive, well-priced properties going into contract quickly. Buyers and sellers have good opportunity here.
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Percentage in contract of both SFR's and Condo's continued to increase last week, following the recent trend. Two exceptions to this were: SFR's in the $1M to $1.99M range, falling less than 1%, but enough to move from "balanced" to "buyers' " (In my opinion not enough of a move to be significant); Condo's in the $1M to $1.99M range, losing 5%, but due to the small size of that market, representing only 1 unit, again, not significant. SFR's over $3M still "strong buyers' " with 13 of 93 properties on the market in contract. A great opportunity for high-end buyers to negotiate.
There were 244 accepted offers on Single Family residences in April. This was the greatest number of accepted offers in the 23 months that my (MarketQuest) report showed, and represented 27% of inventory, and 79% of new listings. In April of last year, there were 216 accepted offers representing 24% of inventory. There were 66 accepted offers on condo's, representing 21% of inventory and 88% of new listings. Again, this number was the highest in the last 23 months, and compared to 54 accepted offers (18% of inventory) in April of 2007.
The Marin County real estate market does appear to be improving, with many market segments approaching "balanced", or even venturing into or close to "sellers' " territory. Reduced YTD unit sales (-36.6% SFR and 39%Condo vs. 2007) make this a time to be careful about pricing, preparation, presentation and thorough with marketing. But not a time to test the market with high prices. Properties that warrant more than the asking price usually attract multiple offers, while overpriced properties often sit on the market, ultimately selling for less than if they had been properly priced at the outset. Market in general is active, with attractive, well-priced properties going into contract quickly. Buyers and sellers have good opportunity here.
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monday, April 28, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.22.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
It is good to be back in Marin, where I have spent the week talking with agents and lenders about their opinions on the current state of the local real estate market. "Make sure you tell them about the multiple offers" excalimed one prominent agent referring to the three offers and quick close on a recent listing. A leading Marin County mortgage broker assured me that they have never failed to to obtain a loan for a well-qualified client. The lenders are just making them jump through a few more hoops now. Agents tell me the market is active, and the REO's are selling as lenders do what is necessary to get these non-performing "assets" off their books. But they also tell me many buyers are circling, waiting to get the perfect deal, or waiting for the market to go lower. From the point of view of an agent, it is surprising that every bit of inventory is not flying off the shelf. So rarely is it that prices in Marin go down, that this seems an opportunity not to be missed. But last week, the gap in YTD unit sales between 2007 and 2008 increased again for both condo's and SFR's (both down 37%). YTD average sold prices on condo's are down about 6.8% vs this time in 2007, and average ytd sold prices for SFR's down about 1.9%. My economics professor told me that the market is always right, and I can't argue with that. But there is such a thing as waiting too long. We will not recognize the bottom of the market until we have passed it. Smart buyers and investors try to find good deals rather than market bottoms, and there are certainly many good deals out there now. Many sellers of homes on the market over 30 days have not reduced their asking prices but would be willing to negotiate on reasonable offers from qualified buyers.
Inventory is up again for both SFR's and condo's, and percentage in contract continues to advance as well. SFR's in the $1million to $1.99 million range finally made it to "balanced" this week, at slightly over 25% in contract. SFR percentages in contract all increased, with the exception of the $2million to $2.99 million range, which dropped less than 1 point. Condominium percentage in contract also up, except in the $1million to $1.99 million range, and that reduction hinged on the sale of only one unit.
Tremendous opportunity in this market. Ask your real estate professional for the city by city average sold prices back to 1965, and see for yourself!
More next week.
Until then, good luck and best wishes,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
It is good to be back in Marin, where I have spent the week talking with agents and lenders about their opinions on the current state of the local real estate market. "Make sure you tell them about the multiple offers" excalimed one prominent agent referring to the three offers and quick close on a recent listing. A leading Marin County mortgage broker assured me that they have never failed to to obtain a loan for a well-qualified client. The lenders are just making them jump through a few more hoops now. Agents tell me the market is active, and the REO's are selling as lenders do what is necessary to get these non-performing "assets" off their books. But they also tell me many buyers are circling, waiting to get the perfect deal, or waiting for the market to go lower. From the point of view of an agent, it is surprising that every bit of inventory is not flying off the shelf. So rarely is it that prices in Marin go down, that this seems an opportunity not to be missed. But last week, the gap in YTD unit sales between 2007 and 2008 increased again for both condo's and SFR's (both down 37%). YTD average sold prices on condo's are down about 6.8% vs this time in 2007, and average ytd sold prices for SFR's down about 1.9%. My economics professor told me that the market is always right, and I can't argue with that. But there is such a thing as waiting too long. We will not recognize the bottom of the market until we have passed it. Smart buyers and investors try to find good deals rather than market bottoms, and there are certainly many good deals out there now. Many sellers of homes on the market over 30 days have not reduced their asking prices but would be willing to negotiate on reasonable offers from qualified buyers.
Inventory is up again for both SFR's and condo's, and percentage in contract continues to advance as well. SFR's in the $1million to $1.99 million range finally made it to "balanced" this week, at slightly over 25% in contract. SFR percentages in contract all increased, with the exception of the $2million to $2.99 million range, which dropped less than 1 point. Condominium percentage in contract also up, except in the $1million to $1.99 million range, and that reduction hinged on the sale of only one unit.
Tremendous opportunity in this market. Ask your real estate professional for the city by city average sold prices back to 1965, and see for yourself!
More next week.
Until then, good luck and best wishes,
Fred
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
