The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 12.19.2009

Hello Everyone,

Marin IJ ran a front page article 12.17.09 that was unusually well-balanced, at least after one got past the headline:
Marin home prices buck Bay Area trend of increases
http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_14018255

The article credited some of the information used to La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, which published an online article a couple of days later.

Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091217.aspx


Read the articles for full details but the general 'drift' was:
Bay area home prices down from October, but up from November '08, the 2nd month in a row of year over year price increases; Bay Area foreclosure sales in November represented 32.5% of all sales activity, up slightly from October, but down substantially from 46.8% in November of '08; DQ article discussed general speculation and some concern over a possible 'shadow inventory' that may result in one more wave of coming foreclosures but noted foreclosure resales have declined this year due to shift in tactics by lenders to the pursuit of short sales and loan modifications rather than foreclosures in many instances. DQ also noted 'jumbo' loan availability improving at 29.5% of all purchases in November, down from 30.9% in October but up from only 24% a year ago. (Limited availability of these loans still acting as a drag on the upper end market here in Marin) Article also noted 22.4% of all BayArea real estate transactions in November appeared to be cash sales, and 15.7% of sales were to absentee buyers.

Lots of activity brewing here in Marin belies the belief that the buyers have all shuffled off for a long winter's nap. Inventory low, activity impressive.

Single Family Residence (SFR):
Sold in November '09- 167, In Nov. '08-- 90, In Nov. '07 140
Accepted offers Nov '09- 230, In Nov. '08-89, In Nov. '07 142
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 129.9%, Nov. 08-56.3%, Nov '07- 88.8%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-27.8%, Nov. '08- 9.1%, Nov. '07 16.7%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5, Nov.'08- 10.9, Nov. 07-6.1

Number of SFR's sold YTD as of December 15 at 1559, finally catching up to and surpassing the YTD figure for the same date in '08, drawing ahead by 2.4%

Condominiums:
Have slowed their formerly torrid pace during the last couple of months, with YTD unit sales at 477 as of Dec 15 vs. 491 at the same time in '08, down 2.8%. Current high levels of accepted offers and low months supply of inventory indicate lots of action still taking place in the Marin County condo market.

Sold in November '09- 41, In Nov. '08-- 47, In Nov. '07 35
Accepted offers Nov '09- 81, In Nov. '08-47, In Nov. '07 28
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 132.8%, Nov. 08-67.1%, Nov '07- 39.4%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-38.8%, Nov. '08- 15.4%, Nov. '07 8.9%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5.1, Nov.'08- 6.5, Nov. 07-8.9

(Data immediately above courtesy of Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. Data believed accurate but not verified)

Remember when looking at sales figures and price levels that 50.8% of all SFR's and 63% of all condo's sold in the County in November were in Novato and San Rafael. This significantly skews the averages and the medians. Your experienced local REALTOR can help you with current values in your neighborhood.

Dow Jones ended the week down 1.4 %, the biggest decline in over a month, according to the 12.19 Wall Street Journal, which went on to say "an earnings-fueled rally bolstered technology stocks" Friday, helping the market to recover partially from a 44 point drop earlier in the day which, it said, was caused by concern about "sovereign credit and the global economy". These kinds of concerns will be around for a while and 2010 shaping up to be an interesting and very possibly pivotal year. We will see what happens.
More next time----.
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holidays and the New Year,
Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com


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12.6.2009

Hello Everyone,

Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows inventory down in every city/town covered by the report. Percentage in contract up in 8 of the 13 covered locations. Total Single Family Homes sold YTD as of Dec 1 was 1472 vs. 1481 at the same time last year or minus only 6/10 of one percent--- a nice catch-up over the last couple of months. Condo YTD unit sales at 451 vs. 2008's 474, holding steady since last report at -4.8% compared to a year ago.
Reports on U.S. economy unexpectedly good last week, especially jobs report. This could be bad news for future interest rates, including mortgages. We will see. Some folks still worried about "shadow inventory" of homes about to be foreclosed upon or recently foreclosed coming on the market and further depressing prices. One never knows for sure, but percentage in contract for every price point of both SFR's and Condo's is up since last report. SFR's under $1million at over 46% and Condo's over 47%. These are very high levels! Percentage in contract starting to inch up for pricier homes in the $1million to $3million-plus range as well.

Market slower now as we approach the Holidays, but serious buyers and sellers are still in the game. As I have said here before, a great time for buyers to make deals with less competition from those who are taking time off from their search until after the New Year.

more next time-----

Until then, best wishes to all for the Holiday Season,
Fred