for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.
Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.
Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, November 28, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.28.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.
Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.
Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.
Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.
Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, November 21, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.21.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Wall Street woe worsens worrying would-be buyers.
Stocks trembled and tumbled again during the business week ending on November 21, giving up several years worth of gains. According to the Nov. 21 Wall Street Journal, "the Dow is off 47% from last year's record, its heaviest decline since the bear market of 1937-1938 when it fell 49%" The article also states that "If the S&P 500 were to finish the year where it was on Thursday, it would mark an annual decline of 48.8%, the worst annual percentage drop in its 80-year history".
In spite of all this, properties are being bought and sold here in Marin. Many buyers with the courage of their convictions picking up exceptional deals. According to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital, there is "no problem getting money" for mortgages. Putting this in context, it is true that buyers have to have good credit, verifiable income, and a down payment. The down payment may not have to be a full 20% if the buyer is willing to get private mortgage insurance. There are 90% loans going through. The property has to appraise, and the larger the loan, the greater the chance that the appraisal will undergo a review. All this said however, loans are still being made. Now is a great time to get in the market and avoid the competition from all the other buyers who later will wish they had pulled their chairs up to the table. Bottom line is--- there is money out there for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR). In the 7 days ending on November 18, inventory of SFR's declined 25 units to 970. This compares to 848 in November of '07 and 822 in November of '06. Overall percentage in contract up 3 points to 20.8%, still a buyers market, but the popular under-$1million range a "sellers' " market at 27.95% in contract. As previously discussed, this is not a license to overprice, but rather an indication that properly prepared and presented, wel-located and well-priced homes under $1million are still selling well. Varies of course by town, neighborhood, street and by specific home. Check with a knowledgable local real estate professional for the best advice on pricing in this market.. YTD units sold at 1429 vs.1821 last year at this time, or -21.5%, the gap widening again for the last couple weeks, but not dramatically. Average list price for YTD units sold $1,394,944 and average sold price $1,291,702. Average Days on market (DOM) at 87. Comparable figures last year were average list $1,447,653, average sold $1,367,997, and DOM 74.
Condo sales again the bright spot in the Marin market. Inventory declined 12 units to 323. This compares to 269 in November of '06 and 314 in November of '07. Overall percentage in contract up just slightly to 35.29%, but enough to push it over the line and change the label to "strong sellers' " market. Under-$1million segment doing even better at 36.42% in contract relieved of the statistical burden of the 10 units over $1million of which none were in contract as of 11/18. Regarding the significance of this condo market being in "strong sellers' " territory, please see above reference under SFR's. YTD units sold at 442 vs 461 last year at this time-- the gap continuing to close and now at only -4.1%. Lots of buyers recognizing value in this reduced-price REO-driven environment and snapping up properties. Average list price for YTD units sold $530,694. Average sold price $490,175. Average DOM 104. Last year's comparable figures were: average list $675,726; average sold $652,337; DOM 83.
Lots of buyers and some sellers will take a break for the Holidays. This provides perfect opportunity for persistance to pay off.
More next week. Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Wall Street woe worsens worrying would-be buyers.
Stocks trembled and tumbled again during the business week ending on November 21, giving up several years worth of gains. According to the Nov. 21 Wall Street Journal, "the Dow is off 47% from last year's record, its heaviest decline since the bear market of 1937-1938 when it fell 49%" The article also states that "If the S&P 500 were to finish the year where it was on Thursday, it would mark an annual decline of 48.8%, the worst annual percentage drop in its 80-year history".
In spite of all this, properties are being bought and sold here in Marin. Many buyers with the courage of their convictions picking up exceptional deals. According to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital, there is "no problem getting money" for mortgages. Putting this in context, it is true that buyers have to have good credit, verifiable income, and a down payment. The down payment may not have to be a full 20% if the buyer is willing to get private mortgage insurance. There are 90% loans going through. The property has to appraise, and the larger the loan, the greater the chance that the appraisal will undergo a review. All this said however, loans are still being made. Now is a great time to get in the market and avoid the competition from all the other buyers who later will wish they had pulled their chairs up to the table. Bottom line is--- there is money out there for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR). In the 7 days ending on November 18, inventory of SFR's declined 25 units to 970. This compares to 848 in November of '07 and 822 in November of '06. Overall percentage in contract up 3 points to 20.8%, still a buyers market, but the popular under-$1million range a "sellers' " market at 27.95% in contract. As previously discussed, this is not a license to overprice, but rather an indication that properly prepared and presented, wel-located and well-priced homes under $1million are still selling well. Varies of course by town, neighborhood, street and by specific home. Check with a knowledgable local real estate professional for the best advice on pricing in this market.. YTD units sold at 1429 vs.1821 last year at this time, or -21.5%, the gap widening again for the last couple weeks, but not dramatically. Average list price for YTD units sold $1,394,944 and average sold price $1,291,702. Average Days on market (DOM) at 87. Comparable figures last year were average list $1,447,653, average sold $1,367,997, and DOM 74.
Condo sales again the bright spot in the Marin market. Inventory declined 12 units to 323. This compares to 269 in November of '06 and 314 in November of '07. Overall percentage in contract up just slightly to 35.29%, but enough to push it over the line and change the label to "strong sellers' " market. Under-$1million segment doing even better at 36.42% in contract relieved of the statistical burden of the 10 units over $1million of which none were in contract as of 11/18. Regarding the significance of this condo market being in "strong sellers' " territory, please see above reference under SFR's. YTD units sold at 442 vs 461 last year at this time-- the gap continuing to close and now at only -4.1%. Lots of buyers recognizing value in this reduced-price REO-driven environment and snapping up properties. Average list price for YTD units sold $530,694. Average sold price $490,175. Average DOM 104. Last year's comparable figures were: average list $675,726; average sold $652,337; DOM 83.
Lots of buyers and some sellers will take a break for the Holidays. This provides perfect opportunity for persistance to pay off.
More next week. Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.15.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
During the 7 days ending on November 11, the inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) for sale in Marin County remained relatively stable at 995 units as opposed to 999 last week. Percentage in contract overall crept up about 1 point to 17.69%, still a buyers' market. Homes under $1million at 26.53% in contract, just back inside sellers' market territory, while the upper end of the market still in the "strong buyers" category: $1-2 million at 10.22%; $2-3 million at 7.34%; over $3million at 7.23%. Year to date units sold at 1411 compared to 1793 at the same time last year, or -21.3%.
MarketQuest statistics for October show that SFR's had 274 new listings for the month, 121 sales, 193 listings were cancelled. There were 162 accepted offers, average Days on Market were 105. There was an 8.5 month supply of SFR's on the market here in Marin County and the ratio of sale price to list price was 91.2%.
Condominiums did a bit better during the week. There were 335 active listings vs. last week's 330. Overall percentage in contract was 34.93%, tantalizingly close to a "strong sellers' " market. The preponderance of condo inventory that is under $1million came in at 35.89% in contract, just over the line into "strong sellers' " territory. The upper end of the market consisted of 9 units in the $1-2 million range, none of which were in contract as of 11/11. YTD units sold at 428 vs. 450 last year at this time, or only -4.8%. This figure has been catching up consistently for several months and now has almost drawn even. If the market continues its momentum it may equal or even surpass last year's total before the end of December, albeit at substantially lower prices. MarketQuest statistics show the average sold price of a Marin County condo was $450,000 in October, up from September's $427,000, but a far cry from the previous 24 month high of 779,000 in November of '07. There were 69 new condo listings, 66 sold listings, and 136 accepted offers. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 136%, Days on Market were 95, and there was only a 4 month supply of listings on the market. The ratio of sale price to list price was 94.1%. 49 listings expired or were cancelled.
Stock market still jumping around causing people to be cautious, especially on large purchases. Nonetheless, major opportunities await those inclined to take advantage of them.
more next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
During the 7 days ending on November 11, the inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) for sale in Marin County remained relatively stable at 995 units as opposed to 999 last week. Percentage in contract overall crept up about 1 point to 17.69%, still a buyers' market. Homes under $1million at 26.53% in contract, just back inside sellers' market territory, while the upper end of the market still in the "strong buyers" category: $1-2 million at 10.22%; $2-3 million at 7.34%; over $3million at 7.23%. Year to date units sold at 1411 compared to 1793 at the same time last year, or -21.3%.
MarketQuest statistics for October show that SFR's had 274 new listings for the month, 121 sales, 193 listings were cancelled. There were 162 accepted offers, average Days on Market were 105. There was an 8.5 month supply of SFR's on the market here in Marin County and the ratio of sale price to list price was 91.2%.
Condominiums did a bit better during the week. There were 335 active listings vs. last week's 330. Overall percentage in contract was 34.93%, tantalizingly close to a "strong sellers' " market. The preponderance of condo inventory that is under $1million came in at 35.89% in contract, just over the line into "strong sellers' " territory. The upper end of the market consisted of 9 units in the $1-2 million range, none of which were in contract as of 11/11. YTD units sold at 428 vs. 450 last year at this time, or only -4.8%. This figure has been catching up consistently for several months and now has almost drawn even. If the market continues its momentum it may equal or even surpass last year's total before the end of December, albeit at substantially lower prices. MarketQuest statistics show the average sold price of a Marin County condo was $450,000 in October, up from September's $427,000, but a far cry from the previous 24 month high of 779,000 in November of '07. There were 69 new condo listings, 66 sold listings, and 136 accepted offers. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 136%, Days on Market were 95, and there was only a 4 month supply of listings on the market. The ratio of sale price to list price was 94.1%. 49 listings expired or were cancelled.
Stock market still jumping around causing people to be cautious, especially on large purchases. Nonetheless, major opportunities await those inclined to take advantage of them.
more next week----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, November 7, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.04.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
What a week! Obama wins historic election victory. Stock market rises several hundred points on anticipation then falls several hundred more following the election on profit taking and fears about the economy. Hedge funds reportedly selling stocks to raise cash against anticipated much larger than normal year-end redemptions by shareholders who have to give advance notice of their intentions. GM and other automakers reporting large financial losses are cutting jobs and talking with government authorities about a potential bailout package. Lots of theories around about the state of the economy and how long it will take to recover. Of course none of the experts agree. Conversations with other real estate agents, investors, and buyers of all kinds reveal individuals with historically winning records now putting money into California real estate, many finding deals on housing that "cash flow" as rentals right away. One savvy commercial agent reports buying condo's for his own account in the Sacramento area for as little as $86,000--- units that previously sold for over $200k. Smart money seems to be betting on a brighter future.
City-by-City report out this week shows continuing weakness in central/southern Marin housing markets with Tiburon, Mill Valley, Ross, and San Anselmo all strong buyers' markets at under 15% in contract. Larkspur and Fairfax under 10% in contract. These major buying opportunities simply do not come around very often in Marin County. Those who buy now are likely to do very well over the next five years. Those who don't will likely be saying "coulda, shoulda, woulda". Northern Marin down slightly, but hanging in there with San Rafael a "balanced" market at 25.9% in contract and Novato currently the only sellers' market with 32.07% of listed homes contract. Smart Novato sellers are grateful for the activity there but are mindful of the "competition". They know that preparation, price, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate are key ingredients to successful sales. Experienced local real estate professionals show their value now with in-depth knowledge of market conditions in the various towns and neighborhoods.
Single Family Residences (SFR):
Overall SFR inventory down again to 999 units. 16.7% of these are in contract, a buyers' market. YTD unit sales at 1394 vs. 1763 last year at this time, or -20.93%. Average list price $1,401,440 vs. $1,453,380 in '07 at the same time. Average sales price $1,298,063 vs '07's $1,373,953. Days on market at 86 vs. 73 at this time last year. Entry-level homes under $1million doing best at 24.8% in contract, a buyers' market, but close to "balanced". Upper-end homes showing "strong buyers' " across the board with over-$3million range at under 5% in contract. A great time for individuals with cash to go shopping for a new home.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to be a bright spot in the Marin housing market, with 33.6% of all listed condo's showing in contract--- a "sellers' " market. This renewed activity came at a cost--- prices are down significantly from a year ago, with average list at $541,358 vs. $664,235 at the same time last year, and average sold prices at $500,234 vs. $640,771 at this time in '07. Unit sales continue to catch up, with 14 units sold during the 7 days ended Nov 4, vs. only 4 units a year ago in the same period. Total YTD condo unit sales now at 421 vs. 443 last year at the same time, or only -5%. Condo's a great bargain now, especially for first-time buyers.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
What a week! Obama wins historic election victory. Stock market rises several hundred points on anticipation then falls several hundred more following the election on profit taking and fears about the economy. Hedge funds reportedly selling stocks to raise cash against anticipated much larger than normal year-end redemptions by shareholders who have to give advance notice of their intentions. GM and other automakers reporting large financial losses are cutting jobs and talking with government authorities about a potential bailout package. Lots of theories around about the state of the economy and how long it will take to recover. Of course none of the experts agree. Conversations with other real estate agents, investors, and buyers of all kinds reveal individuals with historically winning records now putting money into California real estate, many finding deals on housing that "cash flow" as rentals right away. One savvy commercial agent reports buying condo's for his own account in the Sacramento area for as little as $86,000--- units that previously sold for over $200k. Smart money seems to be betting on a brighter future.
City-by-City report out this week shows continuing weakness in central/southern Marin housing markets with Tiburon, Mill Valley, Ross, and San Anselmo all strong buyers' markets at under 15% in contract. Larkspur and Fairfax under 10% in contract. These major buying opportunities simply do not come around very often in Marin County. Those who buy now are likely to do very well over the next five years. Those who don't will likely be saying "coulda, shoulda, woulda". Northern Marin down slightly, but hanging in there with San Rafael a "balanced" market at 25.9% in contract and Novato currently the only sellers' market with 32.07% of listed homes contract. Smart Novato sellers are grateful for the activity there but are mindful of the "competition". They know that preparation, price, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate are key ingredients to successful sales. Experienced local real estate professionals show their value now with in-depth knowledge of market conditions in the various towns and neighborhoods.
Single Family Residences (SFR):
Overall SFR inventory down again to 999 units. 16.7% of these are in contract, a buyers' market. YTD unit sales at 1394 vs. 1763 last year at this time, or -20.93%. Average list price $1,401,440 vs. $1,453,380 in '07 at the same time. Average sales price $1,298,063 vs '07's $1,373,953. Days on market at 86 vs. 73 at this time last year. Entry-level homes under $1million doing best at 24.8% in contract, a buyers' market, but close to "balanced". Upper-end homes showing "strong buyers' " across the board with over-$3million range at under 5% in contract. A great time for individuals with cash to go shopping for a new home.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to be a bright spot in the Marin housing market, with 33.6% of all listed condo's showing in contract--- a "sellers' " market. This renewed activity came at a cost--- prices are down significantly from a year ago, with average list at $541,358 vs. $664,235 at the same time last year, and average sold prices at $500,234 vs. $640,771 at this time in '07. Unit sales continue to catch up, with 14 units sold during the 7 days ended Nov 4, vs. only 4 units a year ago in the same period. Total YTD condo unit sales now at 421 vs. 443 last year at the same time, or only -5%. Condo's a great bargain now, especially for first-time buyers.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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