For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
What a week! Obama wins historic election victory. Stock market rises several hundred points on anticipation then falls several hundred more following the election on profit taking and fears about the economy. Hedge funds reportedly selling stocks to raise cash against anticipated much larger than normal year-end redemptions by shareholders who have to give advance notice of their intentions. GM and other automakers reporting large financial losses are cutting jobs and talking with government authorities about a potential bailout package. Lots of theories around about the state of the economy and how long it will take to recover. Of course none of the experts agree. Conversations with other real estate agents, investors, and buyers of all kinds reveal individuals with historically winning records now putting money into California real estate, many finding deals on housing that "cash flow" as rentals right away. One savvy commercial agent reports buying condo's for his own account in the Sacramento area for as little as $86,000--- units that previously sold for over $200k. Smart money seems to be betting on a brighter future.
City-by-City report out this week shows continuing weakness in central/southern Marin housing markets with Tiburon, Mill Valley, Ross, and San Anselmo all strong buyers' markets at under 15% in contract. Larkspur and Fairfax under 10% in contract. These major buying opportunities simply do not come around very often in Marin County. Those who buy now are likely to do very well over the next five years. Those who don't will likely be saying "coulda, shoulda, woulda". Northern Marin down slightly, but hanging in there with San Rafael a "balanced" market at 25.9% in contract and Novato currently the only sellers' market with 32.07% of listed homes contract. Smart Novato sellers are grateful for the activity there but are mindful of the "competition". They know that preparation, price, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate are key ingredients to successful sales. Experienced local real estate professionals show their value now with in-depth knowledge of market conditions in the various towns and neighborhoods.
Single Family Residences (SFR):
Overall SFR inventory down again to 999 units. 16.7% of these are in contract, a buyers' market. YTD unit sales at 1394 vs. 1763 last year at this time, or -20.93%. Average list price $1,401,440 vs. $1,453,380 in '07 at the same time. Average sales price $1,298,063 vs '07's $1,373,953. Days on market at 86 vs. 73 at this time last year. Entry-level homes under $1million doing best at 24.8% in contract, a buyers' market, but close to "balanced". Upper-end homes showing "strong buyers' " across the board with over-$3million range at under 5% in contract. A great time for individuals with cash to go shopping for a new home.
Condominiums:
Condo's continue to be a bright spot in the Marin housing market, with 33.6% of all listed condo's showing in contract--- a "sellers' " market. This renewed activity came at a cost--- prices are down significantly from a year ago, with average list at $541,358 vs. $664,235 at the same time last year, and average sold prices at $500,234 vs. $640,771 at this time in '07. Unit sales continue to catch up, with 14 units sold during the 7 days ended Nov 4, vs. only 4 units a year ago in the same period. Total YTD condo unit sales now at 421 vs. 443 last year at the same time, or only -5%. Condo's a great bargain now, especially for first-time buyers.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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