Hello Everyone,
Some concern this week about the ending, June 30th, of the Federal Reserve injection of cash into the financial system, known as Quantitative Easing. The Fed has supplied the financial markets with some $600 Billion in cash liquidity since the beginning of this (2nd) phase of the program in November, 2010. Stock market jittery. Many different opinions on what will happen next. Some analysts predicting the government will be forced to support the economy with a third round of Quantitative easing before too long.
Two weeks ago, in the cold and rain, we wondered if spring would ever come. Yes, there had been a few nice days, but always a return to the rain After over seven months of cold, windy, rainy weather, we had had enough. Now, suddenly it is summer and the weather is beautiful. And the real estate market seems just like that--- a few bright spots surrounded by pessimism and doubt. Meanwhile, investors continue to snap up a large portion of the available Bay Area residential real estate--- over 21% in May, according to the most recent DataQuick monthly report, dated June 15. http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110615.aspx These investors know a good deal when they see one. Home prices and mortgage rates continue at lows not seen in many years, and, like our recent extended winter, it may seem as if these bargains will go on forever. History tells us they will not. One day we will realize that the recovery has happened. In the interim, many people who formerly found themselves unable to achieve their dream of home ownership will reach out and grab it. Buyers are encouraged to take a serious look at the opportunities presented by this market! Don't wait 'till it's over!
Here in Marin County, sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) holding up pretty well. 29.33% of all SFR's listed on MLS in contract as of June 14, just slightly below the 30.56% when we reported 2 weeks ago. $0-$999K segment down 7/10ths of a point at 38.12%. We are calling this a Sellers' Market, but it is largely a Sellers' Market in name only. Homes that are attractively priced, prepared, and presented are selling, sometimes with multiple offers, but sellers ability to dictate price is still not there in most cases. Upper-end homes continue to be a huge bargain for buyers, and the more upper-end, the better the bargains. Homes over $3million considered a Very Strong Buyers' Market, with only 9.9% of listings in contract on June 14. YTD units sold on June 15 were 799 compared to 805 on the same date last year, down 7/10ths of a point. Up until May 31, this number had been in positive terrtory for the year. Let's watch this trend carefully in coming weeks and keep in mind that tax incentives artificially inflated sales figures in the first half of last year as buyers rushed to make their purchases before the credits expired .
Condominium percentage in contract actually increased across the board since our report two weeks ago. Overall market up from 34.92% in contract on May 31 to 36.71% on June 14.
$0-$999k price range up to 38.19% in contract from 36.58% two weeks ago, and even the upper-end condo's eked out a gain, with 14% in contract compared to the May 31 figure of 5.56% for condo's over $1million. YTD condo units sold on June 15 were 219, 1.3% less than the year-ago figure of 222 units. Two weeks ago, we were at -1%. This also bears watching, but so far, we believe there is a considerable amount of activity in the Marin County real estate market and are encouraged by the number of open escrows at local brokerages and positive agent reports about local market activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, June 20, 2011
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