Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/ )
An interesting week. Fires elsewhere in the state sent a haze rolling into the County, obscuring views and smelling reminiscent of a smoky Scout camp-out. Temperatures spiked to 100-plus degrees and then plunged back to the 60's or lower and everyone dragged their jackets back out of the closet. Oil closed at record prices around $140 per barrel, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted again. Buyers were feeling far from relaxed and comfortable, and sellers were left wondering about the value in their homes.
Through all of this, the Marin County real estate market remained amazingly calm. Carolyn Said, in the June 27 SF Chronicle business section quoted USC's Raphael Bostic, saying that "San Jose and San Francisco were in the best shape of major California cities, with home prices flattening, instead of plunging like those in Southern California and inland." The thrust of the article was that the costs of owning a home are now nearly as low as the costs of renting in many areas, and that this should stabilize the market. Business Week obviously had a different opion, and ran an article under the headline "The Housing Abyss" "Why the worst may be yet to come---" http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_27/b4091032364818.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
Newly appointed HUD Secretary Steve Preston has been quoted as saying he is optimistic about the passage of a bill currently in Congress to allow hundreds of thousands of qualified homeowners to refinance into affordable government insures mortgages.
And the Wall Street Journal ran a headline "Market's Fall Raises Fears on Banks"
So what is the truth, and what are we to think? Well, as a French friend of mine is fond of saying "Courage, mon ami." Times like this offer opportunity. A check with local mortgage brokers revealed that although rates last week hit their high for the year, they have receded significantly since then, due in part to the Fed leaving rates unchanged, and also to the selloff of the stock market which sent money fleeing to the relative safety of bonds, increasing the potential pool of mortgage money. The increase in FHA loan levels has had a significant positive effect on the availability of funds, and there is even a program called "203K" that allows buyers to purchase a home and then get extra funds to fix it up. Although lending guidelines have been tightened, money is available for qualified borrowers. And prices are very attractive.
Inventory for both single family residences and condo's remained relatively stable, and percentage in contract actually increased slightly in most market segments. 46 single family residences sold during the 7 days ending on June 24, not that far off the 52 that sold during the same period last year. As a result, the SFR YTD unit sales closed the gap a bit from -32% to -28%. During the same period, 16 condominium units sold, vs. 15 last year, narrowing the condo YTD unit sales gap as well, from -38% to -35.8%.
My opinion? Great opportunities in this market. If history is any indicator prices will be headed up and people will be telling stories about the one that got away.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 27, 2008
Friday, June 20, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.17.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
6.17.2008
Hello Everyone,
The Marin County real estate market results for the past week were mixed.
DataQuick, the LaJolla, Ca. based real estate news service, reported as follows:
"A total of 6,216 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area in May. That was down 1.5 percent from 6,310 in April, and down 23.1 percent from 8,080 in May 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported. Last month was the slowest May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988."
A bit of a comedown from April. Data Quick's commentary on that:
"April had broken a seven-month string of record-low months that began after the credit crunch hit last August, where each month had the lowest sales for that particular month since 1988. April saw a record month-to-month sales increase of 28.8 percent from March. However, it appears at least a portion of the April gain was the result of escrows taking longer to close this year. Some sales that would normally have closed in March, seasonally a strong month, likely spilled into April."
(full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080618.aspx )
Marin County single family residences slipped from 22.9% to 21.87% in contract on an overall basis, a buyers' market. The $0-$999K single family home market, which briefly ventured into sellers' market territory in our last report slipped from 26.04% to 25.3% in contract, now back in the "balanced" range. 46 Single family residences closed escrow in the county for the 7day period ending June 17, compared to 43 last year. As a result, YTD SFR unit sales compared to 2007 improved a bit, from -34% to -32.3%. Average YTD list price for units sold, $1,420,038, average sold price, $1,369,833, average Days on Market, 77. Comparable numbers in 2007 were $1,390,183, $1,365,386, and 70. We are now near the halfway point of the year, and entering a traditionally slower sales period as people turn their attention to vacations and travel. Let's watch and see what develops in the next few weeks.
Condominium sales in the County fared a bit less well but there was still some good news. Condo's overall stayed "balanced" at 25.83% in contract, a slight increase from the previous week's 25.06%. Condo's under $1million increased from 26.08% to 26.82% in contract, hanging in there in sellers' market territory for the second week. (Sellers, take this with the proverbial grain of salt; proper pricing is still critical.) In spite of this, closed condo escrows for the 7 days ended on June 17 were only 6 units, compared to 14 in 2007. Total YTD units sold slipped from -37.2% to -38% compared to 2007.
Average list price was $580,381. Average sold price $563,811, and DOM at 92. These figures compared to 2007's $641,797, $632,794, and 75. Obviously, condo prices have come down considerably over the course of the year, pushed by REO's (bank owned real estate) selling at low prices, particularly in Novato.
Marin County real estate market continues to be segmented, with no true "average" Marin home. Market is neighborhood by neighborhood, and the above trends are only averages. It is critical during this market to have the advice of an experienced local REALTOR who is familiar with the specific neighborhood. Certain areas are doing spectacularly well, others more challenging. Marin County is a great place to work and live, expansion is limited, and there is a lot of demand for homes in the County. This insulates us a bit, and the swings of our market are considerably less intense than elsewhere in the state or the nation but local real estate is still sensitive to the economic news of the moment. Historically, Marin County real estate has been an excellent investment and some of the current favorable prices offer buyers an opportunity to get a great home at an affordable price. What could be better?
more next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
6.17.2008
Hello Everyone,
The Marin County real estate market results for the past week were mixed.
DataQuick, the LaJolla, Ca. based real estate news service, reported as follows:
"A total of 6,216 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area in May. That was down 1.5 percent from 6,310 in April, and down 23.1 percent from 8,080 in May 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported. Last month was the slowest May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988."
A bit of a comedown from April. Data Quick's commentary on that:
"April had broken a seven-month string of record-low months that began after the credit crunch hit last August, where each month had the lowest sales for that particular month since 1988. April saw a record month-to-month sales increase of 28.8 percent from March. However, it appears at least a portion of the April gain was the result of escrows taking longer to close this year. Some sales that would normally have closed in March, seasonally a strong month, likely spilled into April."
(full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080618.aspx )
Marin County single family residences slipped from 22.9% to 21.87% in contract on an overall basis, a buyers' market. The $0-$999K single family home market, which briefly ventured into sellers' market territory in our last report slipped from 26.04% to 25.3% in contract, now back in the "balanced" range. 46 Single family residences closed escrow in the county for the 7day period ending June 17, compared to 43 last year. As a result, YTD SFR unit sales compared to 2007 improved a bit, from -34% to -32.3%. Average YTD list price for units sold, $1,420,038, average sold price, $1,369,833, average Days on Market, 77. Comparable numbers in 2007 were $1,390,183, $1,365,386, and 70. We are now near the halfway point of the year, and entering a traditionally slower sales period as people turn their attention to vacations and travel. Let's watch and see what develops in the next few weeks.
Condominium sales in the County fared a bit less well but there was still some good news. Condo's overall stayed "balanced" at 25.83% in contract, a slight increase from the previous week's 25.06%. Condo's under $1million increased from 26.08% to 26.82% in contract, hanging in there in sellers' market territory for the second week. (Sellers, take this with the proverbial grain of salt; proper pricing is still critical.) In spite of this, closed condo escrows for the 7 days ended on June 17 were only 6 units, compared to 14 in 2007. Total YTD units sold slipped from -37.2% to -38% compared to 2007.
Average list price was $580,381. Average sold price $563,811, and DOM at 92. These figures compared to 2007's $641,797, $632,794, and 75. Obviously, condo prices have come down considerably over the course of the year, pushed by REO's (bank owned real estate) selling at low prices, particularly in Novato.
Marin County real estate market continues to be segmented, with no true "average" Marin home. Market is neighborhood by neighborhood, and the above trends are only averages. It is critical during this market to have the advice of an experienced local REALTOR who is familiar with the specific neighborhood. Certain areas are doing spectacularly well, others more challenging. Marin County is a great place to work and live, expansion is limited, and there is a lot of demand for homes in the County. This insulates us a bit, and the swings of our market are considerably less intense than elsewhere in the state or the nation but local real estate is still sensitive to the economic news of the moment. Historically, Marin County real estate has been an excellent investment and some of the current favorable prices offer buyers an opportunity to get a great home at an affordable price. What could be better?
more next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 13, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.10.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Look at what has happened! After making continuous progress over a number of weeks the SFR and Condo markets both showed up with good news last week. As of June 10, Single Family Residences overall were at 22.9% in contract, still a buyers' market, but close to balanced. HOWEVER, SFR's from $0-$999,999 clocked in at 26.04% in contract county-wide, officially in sellers' market territory for the first time in a long time. SFR listing activity was flat, and homes above $2million are a bit soft at only 18.6% in contract. $3million-plus properties a major buyers' opportunity at only 10.6% in contract. Sellers- This is a time to be optimistic, but not a time to push the envelope on pricing. Savvy buyers still looking for value, but writing offers and buying homes.
Condo's made progress during the week as well, with the overall condo market balanced at 25.06% in contract and the under-$1million condo market at 26.08% in contract---believe it or not, in sellers' market territory. Still large pockets of condo listings that have been on the market for a while, and this makes ambitious pricing unwise. But, well-located, right-priced condo's in desirable areas are selling.
This welcome news, together with last week's City-by-City report's (included again in this week's attachments) data showing Novato officially back in sellers' market territory indicate steady progress in our local markets. Year to date units sold continue to be off substantially (-37% condo and-34% SFR) from last year, but recent sales activity is steady and improving. Lots of uncertainty in the economy and with the price of gas going up weekly and even daily, and the Dow Jones bouncing up and down like a golden retriever's green tennis ball. Folks are being careful about their money and financial commitments. Still, buyers are recognizing tremendous value in certain segments of the Marin County housing market and voting their confidence with the expenditure of their housing dollars. Many experienced local real estate agents are saying this is a great time to buy. Interest rates are low, loans are available, and home prices are reasonable and reasonably stable. Marin County housing dreams are coming true for many buyers who recognize value and act on their convictions.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Look at what has happened! After making continuous progress over a number of weeks the SFR and Condo markets both showed up with good news last week. As of June 10, Single Family Residences overall were at 22.9% in contract, still a buyers' market, but close to balanced. HOWEVER, SFR's from $0-$999,999 clocked in at 26.04% in contract county-wide, officially in sellers' market territory for the first time in a long time. SFR listing activity was flat, and homes above $2million are a bit soft at only 18.6% in contract. $3million-plus properties a major buyers' opportunity at only 10.6% in contract. Sellers- This is a time to be optimistic, but not a time to push the envelope on pricing. Savvy buyers still looking for value, but writing offers and buying homes.
Condo's made progress during the week as well, with the overall condo market balanced at 25.06% in contract and the under-$1million condo market at 26.08% in contract---believe it or not, in sellers' market territory. Still large pockets of condo listings that have been on the market for a while, and this makes ambitious pricing unwise. But, well-located, right-priced condo's in desirable areas are selling.
This welcome news, together with last week's City-by-City report's (included again in this week's attachments) data showing Novato officially back in sellers' market territory indicate steady progress in our local markets. Year to date units sold continue to be off substantially (-37% condo and-34% SFR) from last year, but recent sales activity is steady and improving. Lots of uncertainty in the economy and with the price of gas going up weekly and even daily, and the Dow Jones bouncing up and down like a golden retriever's green tennis ball. Folks are being careful about their money and financial commitments. Still, buyers are recognizing tremendous value in certain segments of the Marin County housing market and voting their confidence with the expenditure of their housing dollars. Many experienced local real estate agents are saying this is a great time to buy. Interest rates are low, loans are available, and home prices are reasonable and reasonably stable. Marin County housing dreams are coming true for many buyers who recognize value and act on their convictions.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 6, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.03.2008
06.03.2008
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows a number of changes. Of the 13 cities and towns monitored, the percentage in contract increased in 5, remained the same in one, and decreased in 7. Significant changes include: Mill Valley made the jump to sellers' market territory, going from 24.5% in contract to 27% in contract; Kentfield back in sellers' market territory at 30.56% in contract vs. last month's 17.65%; San Rafael, continuing on its upward trend, coming in with another increase to 23.37%, up again from last month's 22.49%; And the big news, Novato at 26% in contract, technically making it a sellers' market for the first time in a very very long time with 120 of 460 listed properties in contract as of June 3.
During the month of May, there were 317 new SFR and 103 new Condo listings in the County, vs. 317 and 101 in May '07, or roughly the same number in each category as last year. The dramatic change is that there were 306 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's during the month. This gives a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 96.5% for SFR's and 84.5% for Condo's, indicating that almost all the new inventory is being absorbed by buyers. Having said that, I must add that prudent sellers must still be very careful about preparation, presentation, and especially pricing, as buyers expect value, are very discriminating and are definitely not writing any blank checks. Expired or cancelled listings for the month of May much higher than same time last year with SFR's at 130 vs. 07's 57, and Condo's at 64 vs 34 in May of '07. Days on market for SFR's at 74 vs. 64 last year and condo's at 93 vs.74 in May of '07.
SFR pricing holding up a bit better than Condo's. SFR sold average $ for May at $1,457,000 vs $1,395,000 in '07 and Condo sold average $ at $544,000 vs. $635,000 last year. Keep in mind that these numbers depend upon the specific units sold during the month so they are not directly comparable due to small sample size of a short time period. Numbers of units sold are still down as well, with SFR's at 594 YTD vs. 904 YTD last year, or -34.3%, and Condo's showing 147 YTD units sold vs 233 last year, or -36.9%.
Activity continues to be brisk in local real estate offices, many with an encouraging number of newly opened escrows. Agents generally upbeat and many feel the market has stabilized and is steady/improving.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows a number of changes. Of the 13 cities and towns monitored, the percentage in contract increased in 5, remained the same in one, and decreased in 7. Significant changes include: Mill Valley made the jump to sellers' market territory, going from 24.5% in contract to 27% in contract; Kentfield back in sellers' market territory at 30.56% in contract vs. last month's 17.65%; San Rafael, continuing on its upward trend, coming in with another increase to 23.37%, up again from last month's 22.49%; And the big news, Novato at 26% in contract, technically making it a sellers' market for the first time in a very very long time with 120 of 460 listed properties in contract as of June 3.
During the month of May, there were 317 new SFR and 103 new Condo listings in the County, vs. 317 and 101 in May '07, or roughly the same number in each category as last year. The dramatic change is that there were 306 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's during the month. This gives a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 96.5% for SFR's and 84.5% for Condo's, indicating that almost all the new inventory is being absorbed by buyers. Having said that, I must add that prudent sellers must still be very careful about preparation, presentation, and especially pricing, as buyers expect value, are very discriminating and are definitely not writing any blank checks. Expired or cancelled listings for the month of May much higher than same time last year with SFR's at 130 vs. 07's 57, and Condo's at 64 vs 34 in May of '07. Days on market for SFR's at 74 vs. 64 last year and condo's at 93 vs.74 in May of '07.
SFR pricing holding up a bit better than Condo's. SFR sold average $ for May at $1,457,000 vs $1,395,000 in '07 and Condo sold average $ at $544,000 vs. $635,000 last year. Keep in mind that these numbers depend upon the specific units sold during the month so they are not directly comparable due to small sample size of a short time period. Numbers of units sold are still down as well, with SFR's at 594 YTD vs. 904 YTD last year, or -34.3%, and Condo's showing 147 YTD units sold vs 233 last year, or -36.9%.
Activity continues to be brisk in local real estate offices, many with an encouraging number of newly opened escrows. Agents generally upbeat and many feel the market has stabilized and is steady/improving.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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