Hello Everyone,
Spreadsheets for the week are available at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Percentage in contract continues to advance in all market segments. SFR's in the $0-$999K price range just a tweak away from balanced, with their present level slightly above 24%. Condominiums YTD unit sales continuing to close the gap, picking up several points from last week, now at -37% compared to last year. SFR's YTD unit sales at -33% compared to '07 dropped a couple of points for the week, but with the other market signs positive, this still looks like an anomaly, especially in view of the number of listings coming on the market recently and the Easter holiday weekend last week.
News media beginning to print stories that cast real estate in a more positive light. There was an AP article picked up by the IJ earlier this week that referenced improved home sales in February. Mary Southall's column in the March 16 IJ went under the heading "At long last, activity rising" and concluded with "Home prices are good, available homes are plentiful and "activity is picking up" means prices will soon follow." By the time the media pick up on a trend, it is usually well under way, and this is probably no exception. Much of the Marin County real estate market is very close to "balanced", with a slight advantage to buyers, but good opportunity for both buyers and sellers. As the spring home buying season progresses, I look for continued improvement and an active market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Monday, March 24, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.18.2008
Hello Everyone,
Small but steady gains in inventory. Marin real estate market steady. Definitely not in the tank as some publications would have us believe. Percentage in contract in most price ranges of SFR's and Condo's continues to increase. Although all segments remain in buyers' market territory, the steady increases promise to push them into balanced or sellers' market territory before too long. Lots of buzz around town from agents discussing recent increases in market activity. Market will take a bit of a break this week due to the Easter holiday. Meanwhile, SFR's down 31% on YTD units sold from this time last year, a couple of points off from last week. I don't think it is a trend. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Condo's at -41% on YTD units sold versus last year--- about a 6 point improvement from last week. This one is and has been a trend for several weeks--smart buyers taking advantage of low prices and lack of competition. Window of opportunity for buyers with good credit continues, but won't last forever! Sellers who have been holding their homes off the market, waiting for conditions to improve may want to consider sticking their toes back in the water now or in the near future before everyone else does. Improved market represents good opportunity for sellers.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Small but steady gains in inventory. Marin real estate market steady. Definitely not in the tank as some publications would have us believe. Percentage in contract in most price ranges of SFR's and Condo's continues to increase. Although all segments remain in buyers' market territory, the steady increases promise to push them into balanced or sellers' market territory before too long. Lots of buzz around town from agents discussing recent increases in market activity. Market will take a bit of a break this week due to the Easter holiday. Meanwhile, SFR's down 31% on YTD units sold from this time last year, a couple of points off from last week. I don't think it is a trend. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Condo's at -41% on YTD units sold versus last year--- about a 6 point improvement from last week. This one is and has been a trend for several weeks--smart buyers taking advantage of low prices and lack of competition. Window of opportunity for buyers with good credit continues, but won't last forever! Sellers who have been holding their homes off the market, waiting for conditions to improve may want to consider sticking their toes back in the water now or in the near future before everyone else does. Improved market represents good opportunity for sellers.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, March 15, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.11.2008
Hello Everyone,
Late breaking news! And lots of it. Front page of yesterday's (3/14) IJ screams "Home prices tumble to $830,000". Article below belies the headline in the first paragraph, saying "but there's no cause for concern, a real estate research firm reported Thursday". Let's take a quick look at the actual statistics.First, the IJ and other publications seem to be irrationally enamored of the "median" price statistic. To me, it seems one of the less useful real estate statistics. All the median price does is identify the price that is the middle price on a list. An extreme example of this would be a list of 3 prices: $3million, $100 thousand, and $500 thousand. The median would be $500 thousand. What does this tell you? At least the average of these 3 prices would be $1,200,000!
The other thing that these publications consistently do is to compare only one month of statistics, as in February 2007 to February 2008. This is too short a time span to judge a market, however, just to stay within their framework, let's take a look at the average prices for February: In February of 2007, the average price of a Single Family Residence sold in Marin County was $1,131,136; In February of 2008, it was $1,231,313, an increase. Would the paper say that? Apparently not.
OK. Other noteworthy events this week are the run on the Wall Street investment firm of Bear Stearns. The company suffered a liquidity crisis due to a run of redemptions by clients who had lost confidence in the its ability to stand behind its obligations. Because of this run on cash, the firm was in danger of defaulting. A rescue package with a large injection of capital was designed and implemented by another Wall Street firm, JPMorgan Chase, but it was ultimately guaranteed by the US government. This highly unusual action was designed to maintain confidence in the US financial markets and to prevent further runs on capital. The stock markets dropped significantly. The subprime mortgage "meltdown" is obviously the root of a great deal of this problem, but the greater impact is from people's perception of the situation and their reaction to that. The government's action yesterday was meant to restore/instill confidence that the system still works and to calm investors who might otherwise create runs on other institutions. It appears that the Feds will continue to be a bulwark against extreme market conditions. They have done quite a bit to inject liquidity into the US economy in recent weeks and to keep the wheels of commerce turning. Why is this important? Liquidity of the banking firms is essential to creating the availability of money for consumers to purchase homes and other items.
Now, the Marin real estate market. Inventories continue to increase, but are a bit below the same time last year, so there is no "glut" of homes on the market. In fact, the biggest complaint we hear from buyers is about the limited choice available to them. Many of them feel frustrated after trudging around to open houses week after week without finding the property they are seeking. Fortunately, normal seasonal trends will soon bring more homes on the market. Yes, sales are down from the same time last year with SFR's currently at -29% on YTD units sold, and Condo's at -47%, however they have been slowly narrowing the gap. Last week the numbers were -35% and -48%, respectively. Novato and San Rafael, which have been weighing down the County averages, have experienced a significant revival of buyer interest and sales. I continue to be optimistic and hopeful about the prospects for this year's Marin County real estate market.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Late breaking news! And lots of it. Front page of yesterday's (3/14) IJ screams "Home prices tumble to $830,000". Article below belies the headline in the first paragraph, saying "but there's no cause for concern, a real estate research firm reported Thursday". Let's take a quick look at the actual statistics.First, the IJ and other publications seem to be irrationally enamored of the "median" price statistic. To me, it seems one of the less useful real estate statistics. All the median price does is identify the price that is the middle price on a list. An extreme example of this would be a list of 3 prices: $3million, $100 thousand, and $500 thousand. The median would be $500 thousand. What does this tell you? At least the average of these 3 prices would be $1,200,000!
The other thing that these publications consistently do is to compare only one month of statistics, as in February 2007 to February 2008. This is too short a time span to judge a market, however, just to stay within their framework, let's take a look at the average prices for February: In February of 2007, the average price of a Single Family Residence sold in Marin County was $1,131,136; In February of 2008, it was $1,231,313, an increase. Would the paper say that? Apparently not.
OK. Other noteworthy events this week are the run on the Wall Street investment firm of Bear Stearns. The company suffered a liquidity crisis due to a run of redemptions by clients who had lost confidence in the its ability to stand behind its obligations. Because of this run on cash, the firm was in danger of defaulting. A rescue package with a large injection of capital was designed and implemented by another Wall Street firm, JPMorgan Chase, but it was ultimately guaranteed by the US government. This highly unusual action was designed to maintain confidence in the US financial markets and to prevent further runs on capital. The stock markets dropped significantly. The subprime mortgage "meltdown" is obviously the root of a great deal of this problem, but the greater impact is from people's perception of the situation and their reaction to that. The government's action yesterday was meant to restore/instill confidence that the system still works and to calm investors who might otherwise create runs on other institutions. It appears that the Feds will continue to be a bulwark against extreme market conditions. They have done quite a bit to inject liquidity into the US economy in recent weeks and to keep the wheels of commerce turning. Why is this important? Liquidity of the banking firms is essential to creating the availability of money for consumers to purchase homes and other items.
Now, the Marin real estate market. Inventories continue to increase, but are a bit below the same time last year, so there is no "glut" of homes on the market. In fact, the biggest complaint we hear from buyers is about the limited choice available to them. Many of them feel frustrated after trudging around to open houses week after week without finding the property they are seeking. Fortunately, normal seasonal trends will soon bring more homes on the market. Yes, sales are down from the same time last year with SFR's currently at -29% on YTD units sold, and Condo's at -47%, however they have been slowly narrowing the gap. Last week the numbers were -35% and -48%, respectively. Novato and San Rafael, which have been weighing down the County averages, have experienced a significant revival of buyer interest and sales. I continue to be optimistic and hopeful about the prospects for this year's Marin County real estate market.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, March 8, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.04.2008
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com) shows lots of changes. Generally speaking, the trend is up, even with a total of 111 new listings over the previous 7 day period. Fairfax making the strongest showing, going from "buyers" at 23.5% in contract to "strong sellers" at 40% in contract over the course of the last month. Only a small number of properties involved though, so the swing is a bit exaggerated. Still, positive news. Exceptions to the upward trend are Greenbrae, Ross, and San Anselmo. Again, the number of properties that caused this shift are relatively small, so I look for more motion towards a conforming upward trend as time goes on. Sellers in these areas should be aware of the current trend. Pricing should be competitive and carefully derived from current and recent market data. Novato and San Rafael continue to advance very respectably. These markets seem to be recovering nicely from recent sluggishness.
SFR market in general continues to outperform the Condo market. SFR market down in YTD units sold about 35% from same time last year, but Avg list price at $1,470,778 up from 07's $1,369,588 and avg. sold $1,399,410 surpassing last year's $1,324,755 by a respectable margin. DOM for YTD sold properties currently at 97 vs. last year's 95.
Condominiums YTD DOM at 91 vs 88 at the same time last year and Avg list and sold below 07's numbers. Unit sales off about 50%. Still, with 62 units currently in contract out of a total of 324 , the market is active. Modest decreases in pecentage in contract this week largely due to influx of new listings. The nice weather is enticing more buyers and sellers. Let's wait to see what unfolds in the next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
City-by-City Report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com) shows lots of changes. Generally speaking, the trend is up, even with a total of 111 new listings over the previous 7 day period. Fairfax making the strongest showing, going from "buyers" at 23.5% in contract to "strong sellers" at 40% in contract over the course of the last month. Only a small number of properties involved though, so the swing is a bit exaggerated. Still, positive news. Exceptions to the upward trend are Greenbrae, Ross, and San Anselmo. Again, the number of properties that caused this shift are relatively small, so I look for more motion towards a conforming upward trend as time goes on. Sellers in these areas should be aware of the current trend. Pricing should be competitive and carefully derived from current and recent market data. Novato and San Rafael continue to advance very respectably. These markets seem to be recovering nicely from recent sluggishness.
SFR market in general continues to outperform the Condo market. SFR market down in YTD units sold about 35% from same time last year, but Avg list price at $1,470,778 up from 07's $1,369,588 and avg. sold $1,399,410 surpassing last year's $1,324,755 by a respectable margin. DOM for YTD sold properties currently at 97 vs. last year's 95.
Condominiums YTD DOM at 91 vs 88 at the same time last year and Avg list and sold below 07's numbers. Unit sales off about 50%. Still, with 62 units currently in contract out of a total of 324 , the market is active. Modest decreases in pecentage in contract this week largely due to influx of new listings. The nice weather is enticing more buyers and sellers. Let's wait to see what unfolds in the next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, March 2, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.26.2008
Hello Everyone,
Encouraging news this week. The Marin real estate market is beginning to warm up a bit, along with the weather. We are still playing catch-up to last year's market figures, but in most cases, the trends continue to be positive.
Single Family Residence listings increased again to 696 vs. 672 last week. Overall SFR percentage in contract is 24.14%, still technically in buyers' market territory, but just a gnat's breath away from the "balanced" level of 25%. The $0-999K SFR segment at 26.89% and the $1M-$1.99M segment at26.21% have finally made it into sellers' market territory after a number of weeks of steady increases. The $2M-$2.99M SFR segment still a buyers' opportunity, but at 19.4% in contract, more than a 2 point improvement over last week and headed into positive territory. The $3M+ segment at 7.58% in contract, down from last week, but remember, this is a relatively small market segment and it does not take too many properties to produce a significant swing in the figures. Still, I believe there is an opportunity here for upper-end buyers with $ to spend. Year to date sales of SFR's, compared to this time last year are down about 35%. This gap has been narrowing for the past several weeks, but lost a couple of points this week. This may just be an anomaly. Let's wait to see what happens in the coming week. Buyers may be well advised to take advantage of this market before it warms any further. Sellers can be encouraged by these trends and may want to consult with their real estate professionals to see if this is a good time to list their home.
The Condominium market here in Marin still overall a buyers market, but percentage in contract moving up here too. Listings up at 317 this week vs 296 last week, continuing the normal seasonal trend. Overall condo market in buyers' territory at 19.87% in contract, up from 19.2% last week. $0-$999K segment at 19.67% in contract vs. 18.9% last week, continuing several weeks of a move-up trend. The $1M-$1.99M segment back in buyers' territory at 23.53% in contract vs. 25% last week, but this swing was due to only one unit in an exceedingly small market segment, and probably not too significant. YTD condo sales in the County down 47% from this time last year, however this figure represents about a 4 point improvement from last week and continues the upward trend we have seen in previous weeks. As this buyers' market heads toward balanced, there is opportunity for both buyers and sellers who are well-informed and willing to negotiate realistically. Consult an experienced local real estate professional for the most up to date information on your market.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Encouraging news this week. The Marin real estate market is beginning to warm up a bit, along with the weather. We are still playing catch-up to last year's market figures, but in most cases, the trends continue to be positive.
Single Family Residence listings increased again to 696 vs. 672 last week. Overall SFR percentage in contract is 24.14%, still technically in buyers' market territory, but just a gnat's breath away from the "balanced" level of 25%. The $0-999K SFR segment at 26.89% and the $1M-$1.99M segment at26.21% have finally made it into sellers' market territory after a number of weeks of steady increases. The $2M-$2.99M SFR segment still a buyers' opportunity, but at 19.4% in contract, more than a 2 point improvement over last week and headed into positive territory. The $3M+ segment at 7.58% in contract, down from last week, but remember, this is a relatively small market segment and it does not take too many properties to produce a significant swing in the figures. Still, I believe there is an opportunity here for upper-end buyers with $ to spend. Year to date sales of SFR's, compared to this time last year are down about 35%. This gap has been narrowing for the past several weeks, but lost a couple of points this week. This may just be an anomaly. Let's wait to see what happens in the coming week. Buyers may be well advised to take advantage of this market before it warms any further. Sellers can be encouraged by these trends and may want to consult with their real estate professionals to see if this is a good time to list their home.
The Condominium market here in Marin still overall a buyers market, but percentage in contract moving up here too. Listings up at 317 this week vs 296 last week, continuing the normal seasonal trend. Overall condo market in buyers' territory at 19.87% in contract, up from 19.2% last week. $0-$999K segment at 19.67% in contract vs. 18.9% last week, continuing several weeks of a move-up trend. The $1M-$1.99M segment back in buyers' territory at 23.53% in contract vs. 25% last week, but this swing was due to only one unit in an exceedingly small market segment, and probably not too significant. YTD condo sales in the County down 47% from this time last year, however this figure represents about a 4 point improvement from last week and continues the upward trend we have seen in previous weeks. As this buyers' market heads toward balanced, there is opportunity for both buyers and sellers who are well-informed and willing to negotiate realistically. Consult an experienced local real estate professional for the most up to date information on your market.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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