Hello Everyone,
A February 16 article from DataQuick, the San Diego, CA-based real estate information service states: "The median price for a (Bay Area) home fell year-over-year for the 16th consecutive month, as "distressed" sales rose to the highest level since early last year---". Statistics in the article showMarin County bucked this trend, with a 4.6% increase in prices over last January's results, and sales unit volume up 9.8%. Our own MLS year-to-date (YTD) statistics show these figures may be a bit deceiving. YTD single family 14, while unit sales increased about 27%, from 132 to 168. Condominium sales, on the other hand, are down from 2011's YTD figure of 63 units, to only 52 as of 2/14, off about 17%. This number actually represents a slight improvement from our last report , when condo unit sales were off 20%. Condo year-over-year prices also down, with average sold price at $320,237 vs. 2011's average YTD sales price of $349,992. Regarding the current statistics, article quotes DataQuick President, John Walsh as saying "This is also the time of year we caution people not to try to read too much into the statistics. The winter numbers are based on a smaller pool of buyers and they haven't proved very predictive." That may be, but the reality is that right now, Marin County SFR prices and sales are up, and condo sales and prices are down--- an important distinction and essential information for buyers and sellers. Current Marin County housing inventory continues to be extremely low. Percentage in contract on under-$1million SFR's and condo's is nearing 50%. Good new listings going into contract quickly, often in their 1st week on the market and, not infrequently, for over asking price. Lots of all-cash deals making it tougher for buyers who need loans, especially FHA or VA buyers, to land the properties they want. Advice of an experienced local REALTOR who knows your neighborhood is invaluable in this market.
Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's down from last February's 142 days to 133, while condo's about the same as last year at this time at 153 days vs. last year's 154. Sellers take note: Stale, overpriced properties that sit on the market while fresh, new, well-price listings zoom out the door skew these numbers to the high side.
Activity in local real estate offices is brisk and agents more optimistic than in quite some time, many thinking that 2012 will be the year the market starts to emerge from its slump.
Time will tell!
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
full text of DataQuick article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120216.aspx
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Monday, February 6, 2012
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.5.12
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract was up in 9 of the 13 towns and cities we follow. Novato in the lead, showing 53.42% of MLS-listed homes and condo's in contract as of February 1---a strong sellers' market. Fairfax, Larkspur, and San Anselmo in a very tight race for 2nd place, all with over 46% in contract, and San Rafael not far behind, at 44.4%. Belvedere percentage in contract still in the basement, even though almost double that in our last report at 9.09%.
CB Market Action report shows continued dramatically low housing inventory in the County. (remember, these figures are lower than MLS figures becuase they do not include listings that are in contract). Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) at 431 as of Jan 31. Last year at the same time, there were 781 available homes, and in Jan of 2010, the number was 823. For Condo's, Jan 31 inventory was 123, compared to 267 last year, and 155 in Jan of 2010. Low inventory continues to frustrate buyers, who pounce upon good new inventory, making it disappear quickly, often the first week on the market. Lots of stories from real estate colleagues about listings with multiple offers selling over asking price and all-cash offers with quick closes. One gated, 1950's, Southern Marin hilltop property in original condition recently sold in the mid-$2million dollar range, all-cash, with a short close, even before it hit the MLS.
Percentage in contract for SFR's in the $1-2 million range has been moving up in recent weeks, currently a "Balanced" market at 31.17% in contract, while homes priced at $2-3 million at 20.45%---- was as low as 11% at the beginning of January. Market for homes above $3million, still very tepid, at only 9% in contract. Sales of SFR's YTD, at 117 on Jan 31, up from 91 units at the same time last year, a 28% increase. Condo's moving in the opposite direction. After ripping up the market in 2011, condo unit sales started off the year with January sales down about 20% from last year, at 35 units compared to Jan, 2011's 44 units. Average sold prices on both SFR's and condo's up, but too soon to indicate a trend due to low numbers and may just be due to specific units sold being a different "market mix". We will know more as the selling season unfolds.
A lot of talk about the upcoming Facebook Initial Public Offering of stock, and the fact that it will create hundreds of "instant millionaires". Much of this money expected to find its way into the SouthBay real estate market, making an already tight market even more competitive and expensive. Question is how much, if any, spillover will find its way to the Marin real estate market. There certainly are enough high-priced bargains from which to choose! Would be interesting! Time will tell.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract was up in 9 of the 13 towns and cities we follow. Novato in the lead, showing 53.42% of MLS-listed homes and condo's in contract as of February 1---a strong sellers' market. Fairfax, Larkspur, and San Anselmo in a very tight race for 2nd place, all with over 46% in contract, and San Rafael not far behind, at 44.4%. Belvedere percentage in contract still in the basement, even though almost double that in our last report at 9.09%.
CB Market Action report shows continued dramatically low housing inventory in the County. (remember, these figures are lower than MLS figures becuase they do not include listings that are in contract). Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) at 431 as of Jan 31. Last year at the same time, there were 781 available homes, and in Jan of 2010, the number was 823. For Condo's, Jan 31 inventory was 123, compared to 267 last year, and 155 in Jan of 2010. Low inventory continues to frustrate buyers, who pounce upon good new inventory, making it disappear quickly, often the first week on the market. Lots of stories from real estate colleagues about listings with multiple offers selling over asking price and all-cash offers with quick closes. One gated, 1950's, Southern Marin hilltop property in original condition recently sold in the mid-$2million dollar range, all-cash, with a short close, even before it hit the MLS.
Percentage in contract for SFR's in the $1-2 million range has been moving up in recent weeks, currently a "Balanced" market at 31.17% in contract, while homes priced at $2-3 million at 20.45%---- was as low as 11% at the beginning of January. Market for homes above $3million, still very tepid, at only 9% in contract. Sales of SFR's YTD, at 117 on Jan 31, up from 91 units at the same time last year, a 28% increase. Condo's moving in the opposite direction. After ripping up the market in 2011, condo unit sales started off the year with January sales down about 20% from last year, at 35 units compared to Jan, 2011's 44 units. Average sold prices on both SFR's and condo's up, but too soon to indicate a trend due to low numbers and may just be due to specific units sold being a different "market mix". We will know more as the selling season unfolds.
A lot of talk about the upcoming Facebook Initial Public Offering of stock, and the fact that it will create hundreds of "instant millionaires". Much of this money expected to find its way into the SouthBay real estate market, making an already tight market even more competitive and expensive. Question is how much, if any, spillover will find its way to the Marin real estate market. There certainly are enough high-priced bargains from which to choose! Would be interesting! Time will tell.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
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