for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
According to the July 18 Wall Street Journal "The Dow ended the week up 7.3% at 8743.94, taking just five days to recover almost all the 7.4% decline of the previous four weeks-----." The article went on to say this was the strongest weekly gain for the Dow since March. Look for more volatility in stocks in the coming weeks and months, but outlook overall appears hopeful.
Here in Marin County, single family residences (SFR) gained back a bit of ground compared to 2008, with 89 homes sold between June 30 and July 14 vs. only 74 in the same period a year ago. This brought YTD unit sales up to 724 compared to 849 last year at this time or -14.7%. In our report two weeks ago the figure was -18.06% so almost a 20% improvement over the two week period. In spite of this, percentage in contract figures for SFR's slipped slightly in all except the over $3million price range with that increase due to changes in only 3 units so probably not significant. Overall SFR percentage in contract slipped from 26.7% to 25.12%, losing its toehold on "sellers' market" status and drifting back into "balanced" territory. The hot under-$1million segment also cooled just a bit from 39.06% in contract to 37.26%, still technically a strong sellers' market but with not much power behind pricing, sellers still advised to pay careful attention to recent comparable sales, stage well, and go with the flow. Inventory overall down slightly to 1210 units from 1236 at last report.
Condo inventory in the County up 5 units from 321 to 326 since the June 30 report. Condo market still red hot with 38.03% of MLS-listed units in contract as of July 14. In the under-$1million segment, a scorching 40% in contract on that date. YTD units sold slipped again for the second reporting period, but still 11.9% ahead of this time last year with 234 YTD units sold vs. '08's 206 Average price of YTD sold units at $369,173 vs. $538,912 last year at this time. Part of this of course due to price deterioration, but quite a bit of it the result of "market mix", meaning a large percentage of the units on the market are lower-end properties, many of them bank-owned foreclosures. Multiple offers not uncommon in this segment. With more foreclosure activity still to come, opportunity for interested buyers should continue for a while but won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Sunday, July 5, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.30.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
7.5.2009
Hello Everyone,
A short trading week with the Dow Jones Index down over 200 points on Thursday as government reports that unemployment hit a 26 year high took a bite out of investors' confidence and put the brakes on the recent rally in equity prices. This uncertainty typically carries over into the housing market where a lack of confidence in the economy keeps many buyers in the wings. May be a good situation for contrarians with the confidence to vote their convictions with their wallets.
City-by-City report out this week shows 8 of 13 cities and towns percentage in contract down, and 5 up. Novato still leading the pack with an amazing 50.73% of MLS listings (Condo's and Single Family combined) in contract as of June 29. San Anselmo in 2nd place at 34.62%, and San Rafael a solid 3rd at 33.33%. A point of interest--- of 341 active listings in Novato, 101 were condo's, and 64 of those were in contract on June 29, a sizzling 63%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory in Marin County dropped to 1236 from 1256 at last report. Overall percentage in contract stayed about the same at 26.7%. $0-$999k price range doing best at 39.06% in contract due to relative availability of mortgage money in this segment. $1million to $1.99million homes at 16.53% in contract while $2million to $2.99million at 10.16% and $3million and up at only 7.21%--- reflecting the difficulty of getting "Jumbo" financing at this point in time. There is money out there but lenders are skittish, many requiring two independent appraisals as well as Full documentation. Lending process backed up at institutions doing these loans and taking substantially longer than was formerly the case. Individuals with cash or with large down payments in good negotiating position on higher-end homes with sellers now paying careful attention to which buyer is most likely to be successful in obtaining financing. During the month of June accepted offers on SFR's in Marin amounted to 27.7% of existing inventory and 105% of new listings (source NRT MarketQuest) , the highest in the past 24 months.
Condo's overall at 38.63% in contract on a county-wide basis with 124 of 321 MLS- listed properties in contract on June 30. There were 239 new condo listings and 88 accepted offers, or 111.4%, the highest in the past 24 months. Accepted condo offers amounted to 36.8% of total existing MLS-listed condo inventory, also a 24 month high as home buyers and investors snapped up properties at prices unheard of a year or 2 ago.
Hoping that everyone had a happy and safe 4th!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
7.5.2009
Hello Everyone,
A short trading week with the Dow Jones Index down over 200 points on Thursday as government reports that unemployment hit a 26 year high took a bite out of investors' confidence and put the brakes on the recent rally in equity prices. This uncertainty typically carries over into the housing market where a lack of confidence in the economy keeps many buyers in the wings. May be a good situation for contrarians with the confidence to vote their convictions with their wallets.
City-by-City report out this week shows 8 of 13 cities and towns percentage in contract down, and 5 up. Novato still leading the pack with an amazing 50.73% of MLS listings (Condo's and Single Family combined) in contract as of June 29. San Anselmo in 2nd place at 34.62%, and San Rafael a solid 3rd at 33.33%. A point of interest--- of 341 active listings in Novato, 101 were condo's, and 64 of those were in contract on June 29, a sizzling 63%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory in Marin County dropped to 1236 from 1256 at last report. Overall percentage in contract stayed about the same at 26.7%. $0-$999k price range doing best at 39.06% in contract due to relative availability of mortgage money in this segment. $1million to $1.99million homes at 16.53% in contract while $2million to $2.99million at 10.16% and $3million and up at only 7.21%--- reflecting the difficulty of getting "Jumbo" financing at this point in time. There is money out there but lenders are skittish, many requiring two independent appraisals as well as Full documentation. Lending process backed up at institutions doing these loans and taking substantially longer than was formerly the case. Individuals with cash or with large down payments in good negotiating position on higher-end homes with sellers now paying careful attention to which buyer is most likely to be successful in obtaining financing. During the month of June accepted offers on SFR's in Marin amounted to 27.7% of existing inventory and 105% of new listings (source NRT MarketQuest) , the highest in the past 24 months.
Condo's overall at 38.63% in contract on a county-wide basis with 124 of 321 MLS- listed properties in contract on June 30. There were 239 new condo listings and 88 accepted offers, or 111.4%, the highest in the past 24 months. Accepted condo offers amounted to 36.8% of total existing MLS-listed condo inventory, also a 24 month high as home buyers and investors snapped up properties at prices unheard of a year or 2 ago.
Hoping that everyone had a happy and safe 4th!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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