Hello Everyone,
La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, in a November 16 report, stated:
"The Bay Area housing market logged another month of lackluster activity in October as some of the recent signs of incremental market improvement began to fade. High-end sales dropped markedly, likely the result of changes to “conforming loan” limits---". This is a reference to the limits for government-insured housing loans which, here in Marin County, were reduced from $729,750 to $625,500 on October 1. Most lenders had stopped taking applications for the higher limits substantially before that time. The House of Representatives voted Thursday (Nov 17) to reinstate the expired higher loan limits, and President Obama signed the bill into law on Friday. Many had predicted that decreasing the limits in a still-faltering economy would deprive the struggling housing market of much-needed liquidity and result in further price attrition. That prediction was not "rocket science". The article goes on to say that although Bay Area real estate unit sales for October, at 6,444 were up from 6,122 (5.5%) in October of 2010, they were down 4.5% from 6,749 in September of this year. The article notes that sales are usually "flat" from Sept. to Oct. so a decline was unexpected. “We’ve been watching the real estate market take itty bitty baby steps in the direction of normalcy, but that trend paused last month. ARM and jumbo loan usage went back down, cash and investor sales went back up as a portion of the market. This may well be a short-term pause while the market recalibrates changes in loan thresholds. We’ll know more in a few months,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. Fortunately, now that the increased limits have been reinstated, we will not have to wait a few months for a result that would have been almost a foregone conclusion. It may take a while to ramp the sales back up though, particularly as we are approaching the traditionally slow Holiday Season.
Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111116.aspx
I have written on a number of occasions about the benefits to Buyers and Sellers of staying in the market during the Holidays rather than taking time off. Fundamentally, it boils down to this:
Buyers---Less competition for the homes you want. Get them now!
Sellers-- The Buyers who are still out there during the Holidays are motivated. Make sure your property is available to them!
Marin County real estate inventory continues its seasonal decline, with percentage in contract increasing at every price point.
Single Family Residences
The hot segment here is still $0-999K, increasing again (Nov 15) to 42.37% in contract, from 40.26% on October 25. All other price points also increased percentage in contract. Overall market checking in at "Balanced", with 33.3% in contract, compared to 30.21% last time.
$1M-$1.99M segment at 22% vs. 18.8% on Oct. 25, and $2M-$2.99 going from 16.05% to 20% during the same period. The $3M and up segment increased slightly, from 4.6% to 5.06% during the period. YTD unit sales of SFR's at 1682 on Nov 15, up from 1611 at the same time last year, but average sales prices down from prior year to $1,000,731 from $1,037,976.
Condo's still smoking hot, with 47.08% in contract on November 15. For the under-$1M segment, it is even higher, at 48.81%. Compares to 45.51% and 46.54%, respectively, on our October 25 report. Condo YTD unit sales at 489, up 16.9% from 418 at the same time last year. Condo prices also down to $376,978 from $404,058 last year.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website,
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, November 18, 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.31.11
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report out this week. The only big surprise is Sausalito, roused from its somnolent state and sizzling at 40.28% in contract, now solidly in sellers’ market territory and up from where it languished as a buyers’ market for an extended period. Percentage in contract at last report was 28%. Remains to be seen if it is finally catching fire or if the sizzle will fizzle. Time will tell.
Market action reports for October show inventory for both single family residences (SFR) and Condo’s down substantially from last year’s levels. SFR’s, with only a 4.6 month supply of inventory (MSI), down 45% from Oct. of 2010. Condo MSI down 51% from the same time last year. Inventory continuing to tighten. Reluctant sellers, waiting for market values to recover, hold on to their property unless required to sell by some compelling circumstance. Basic economics teaches us that reduced supply eventually results in increasing prices which then attract a greater supply. Here in Marin County, this has yet to happen, with inventory continuing to go from low to lower. Attractive, well-priced, well-located properties often selling almost immediately, often with multiple offers, and frequently at a premium to list price. Most multiple-offer situations still not going wildly over list price because tight appraisal guidelines continue to hold prices in check, however cash buyers are obviously free to spend any amount they care to and often come out on the winning end of bidding contests, particularly in the lower end of the market. One agent was recently overheard telling clients that if they liked a particular newly-listed property, they should make an offer right away as it probably would not be around next week. The agent was right, it wasn’t. These are not hard-sell tactics--- this is just the reality of today’sMarinCountyreal estate market. There is a large pool of frustrated buyers ready to pounce on prime properties. Buyers in the higher price points may have the luxury of shopping around, but should take advantage of the opportunity while the party lasts! The only thing we know for sure is that everything changes.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Percentage in contract up for most pricing segments. Overall percentage in contract up slightly from 29.6% to 30.2% since last report. Still an overall buyers’ market, but first impressions prove deceptive when we take a closer look. Homes under $1million up another point, finally breaking the 40% barrier- a solid sellers’ market. $1million to $1.99 million range down just slightly but basically even at 18.3% in contract---continuing to be a strong buyers’ market and representing a great opportunity. $2 million to $2.99 million price point offering similar or even slightly better opportunity for buyers, at only 16.05% in contract, while the over $3million segment, at only 4.6% in contract offers enormous opportunities for those with buying and bargaining power. SFR unit sales at 1556 on Nov. 1, compared to 1499 at the same time last year, or up 3.8%. Prices are down a bit to an average of $1,008,371 compared to $1,033,918 on the same date last year.
Condominiums
Condo percentage in contract increased slightly overall, with 45.51%, of listed units in contract on October 25—just on the verge of becoming a strong sellers’ market. The under $1million condo market already there, at 46.54% in contract. YTD condo units sold at 449, up 14% from the 386 units sold last year at the same time. Average sold price for condo’s also down to $369,368 vs. last year’s $399,432. Average days on market were 147 vs 132 last year. Decreases in sales prices for Condo’s and SFR’s not entirely attributable to market price attrition. Many analysts assign about 50% of decline in average sales price to changes in market mix and other factors.
Holiday Season once again almost upon us. Many Buyers and Sellers traditionally take a break from real estate during this time. Could be a mistake for both sides as sellers can benefit from buyers who are still in the market and tend to be much more motivated, and buyers also benefit when the competition takes a break.
Bottom line: Interest rates are great; prices are low; people are buying homes!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report out this week. The only big surprise is Sausalito, roused from its somnolent state and sizzling at 40.28% in contract, now solidly in sellers’ market territory and up from where it languished as a buyers’ market for an extended period. Percentage in contract at last report was 28%. Remains to be seen if it is finally catching fire or if the sizzle will fizzle. Time will tell.
Market action reports for October show inventory for both single family residences (SFR) and Condo’s down substantially from last year’s levels. SFR’s, with only a 4.6 month supply of inventory (MSI), down 45% from Oct. of 2010. Condo MSI down 51% from the same time last year. Inventory continuing to tighten. Reluctant sellers, waiting for market values to recover, hold on to their property unless required to sell by some compelling circumstance. Basic economics teaches us that reduced supply eventually results in increasing prices which then attract a greater supply. Here in Marin County, this has yet to happen, with inventory continuing to go from low to lower. Attractive, well-priced, well-located properties often selling almost immediately, often with multiple offers, and frequently at a premium to list price. Most multiple-offer situations still not going wildly over list price because tight appraisal guidelines continue to hold prices in check, however cash buyers are obviously free to spend any amount they care to and often come out on the winning end of bidding contests, particularly in the lower end of the market. One agent was recently overheard telling clients that if they liked a particular newly-listed property, they should make an offer right away as it probably would not be around next week. The agent was right, it wasn’t. These are not hard-sell tactics--- this is just the reality of today’sMarinCountyreal estate market. There is a large pool of frustrated buyers ready to pounce on prime properties. Buyers in the higher price points may have the luxury of shopping around, but should take advantage of the opportunity while the party lasts! The only thing we know for sure is that everything changes.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Percentage in contract up for most pricing segments. Overall percentage in contract up slightly from 29.6% to 30.2% since last report. Still an overall buyers’ market, but first impressions prove deceptive when we take a closer look. Homes under $1million up another point, finally breaking the 40% barrier- a solid sellers’ market. $1million to $1.99 million range down just slightly but basically even at 18.3% in contract---continuing to be a strong buyers’ market and representing a great opportunity. $2 million to $2.99 million price point offering similar or even slightly better opportunity for buyers, at only 16.05% in contract, while the over $3million segment, at only 4.6% in contract offers enormous opportunities for those with buying and bargaining power. SFR unit sales at 1556 on Nov. 1, compared to 1499 at the same time last year, or up 3.8%. Prices are down a bit to an average of $1,008,371 compared to $1,033,918 on the same date last year.
Condominiums
Condo percentage in contract increased slightly overall, with 45.51%, of listed units in contract on October 25—just on the verge of becoming a strong sellers’ market. The under $1million condo market already there, at 46.54% in contract. YTD condo units sold at 449, up 14% from the 386 units sold last year at the same time. Average sold price for condo’s also down to $369,368 vs. last year’s $399,432. Average days on market were 147 vs 132 last year. Decreases in sales prices for Condo’s and SFR’s not entirely attributable to market price attrition. Many analysts assign about 50% of decline in average sales price to changes in market mix and other factors.
Holiday Season once again almost upon us. Many Buyers and Sellers traditionally take a break from real estate during this time. Could be a mistake for both sides as sellers can benefit from buyers who are still in the market and tend to be much more motivated, and buyers also benefit when the competition takes a break.
Bottom line: Interest rates are great; prices are low; people are buying homes!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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