For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com/
Hello Everyone,
Washington Mutual failed this week and the government struck a deal with JP Morgan/Chase to take it over. Stock market relatively calm, and relative to the major financial events of recent weeks, no huge new bad news revealed. People still feeling a bit wary and waiting for the other shoe to drop. Lots of articles stating or implying that the $700 billion Washington bail-out is just a band-aid don't help, and neither does the lack of agreement among the various branches of government involved. Still, all of this has been around for a week or more and nothing new to factor in, so we'll keep this week's report short--- as Sgt. Joe Friday used to say "Just the facts, ma'am".
Single Family Residences (SFR): YTD unit sales at 1203 vs. last year's 1583 at this time, or -24%. Still, about 31 SFR 's sold for the week compared to 24 in the same 7 days in '07. This represents continued week over week improvement, a trend for a number of weeks now. Inventory down slightly from1116 to1103 with 226 of those in contract, or only about 20.49%, a buyers' market. Under- $1million segment percentage in contract down again to 26.2%, technically a sellers' market, but very segmented and buyers continue to be skittish. My recommendation--know your market, utilize the services of an experienced local real estate professional, and don't push the pricing envelope. Upper end of the market (above $2million) actually bumped up a bit but still a buyers' market.
Condominiums: Continued to defy gravity and current events. Percentage in contract up again in all price ranges, giving condo sellers a long-overdue reason to celebrate. Marin County condo's overall at 37% in contract, technically a strong sellers' market. As we have discussed before, this came at the expense of substantial sales price reductions over the last year, largely driven by lenders sales of foreclosed units. Nonetheless, buyers back in the market. Historical data shows Marin real estate prices rarely decrease, making this a rare opportunity and a great time to buy. Not all condo complexes created equal so check with a local real estate professional about relative values. Their knowledge almost essential in markets like this. YTD condo units sold at 330 compared to 404 same time last year, or -18%. 10 units sold during the week compared to only 4 in 2007, continuing the gains of recent weeks which have helped the market to continue its recovery from much larger deficits earlier in the year.
more next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, September 26, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.16.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week! Dow Jones all over the map. Lehman Brothers fails. AIG teeters on the brink. FED puts together a rescue plan. White House seems to be more on top of this than Hurricane Katrina. Lots of criticism about bailing out the "fat cats", but govt. sees no real choice and is compelled to save them while backstopping the U.S. and world financial system. This action seems to calm the markets and Dow returns to sanity or a facismile thereof. Once all this is in place, options for next president will be significantly narrowed.
Here in Marin County, buyers and sellers understandably concerned about availability of mortgage money as well as price levels, with buyers wanting to wait until market reaches bottom and sellers nervous about whether to sell now or wait until value comes back up. Move-up buyers have a great opportunity to save money even if they get less for their present home. The savings on a more expensive home will outweigh any loss on the former property. Of course if it is possible to keep the old home and rent it out while waiting for further market appreciation, that would be an even better solution!
Condo's the star in this week's Marin real estate production! Condo market overall went to 35.37% in contract, with 133 of 376 listed properties in contract. This is technically a strong sellers' market. Nice to see some renewed strength in this segment, albeit at significantly lower prices than a year or two ago. Properties finally moving again but very price sensitive and buyers selective and skittish with a number of properties falling out of escrow. Market at -20% in YTD units sold, compared to this time last year. This is a major improvement from earlier this year and follows a trend that has been going on for quite a few weeks now. Average YTD sold price $520,729 vs last year's $641,225, and days on market (DOM) at 92 vs. '07's 76 at this time.
Single Family Residences (SFR) slipped again this week to 20.61% in contract, a buyers' market overall. Varies, of course, by city, town, neighborhood, condition, etc. Under $1 million "entry level" market still a sellers' market at 27.39% in contract, but just barely. Prices holding up better than condo's though with average YTD sold price at $1,314,021 vs. last year at this time $1,373,219 and DOM at 77 vs 07's 70 days at this same date. Word from local mortgage brokers is that loans are pretty much all "full doc" right now, with jumbo loans much scarcer than previously. This may improve a bit as more order returns to the national financial scene. In the meantime, buyers with cash are in a very good position.
More financial events playing out daily and it will probably be a while before we see the final result. One thing for sure though, if you need a place to live it is tough to beat Marin County, and over the long run, I'd bet on more price appreciation---
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week! Dow Jones all over the map. Lehman Brothers fails. AIG teeters on the brink. FED puts together a rescue plan. White House seems to be more on top of this than Hurricane Katrina. Lots of criticism about bailing out the "fat cats", but govt. sees no real choice and is compelled to save them while backstopping the U.S. and world financial system. This action seems to calm the markets and Dow returns to sanity or a facismile thereof. Once all this is in place, options for next president will be significantly narrowed.
Here in Marin County, buyers and sellers understandably concerned about availability of mortgage money as well as price levels, with buyers wanting to wait until market reaches bottom and sellers nervous about whether to sell now or wait until value comes back up. Move-up buyers have a great opportunity to save money even if they get less for their present home. The savings on a more expensive home will outweigh any loss on the former property. Of course if it is possible to keep the old home and rent it out while waiting for further market appreciation, that would be an even better solution!
Condo's the star in this week's Marin real estate production! Condo market overall went to 35.37% in contract, with 133 of 376 listed properties in contract. This is technically a strong sellers' market. Nice to see some renewed strength in this segment, albeit at significantly lower prices than a year or two ago. Properties finally moving again but very price sensitive and buyers selective and skittish with a number of properties falling out of escrow. Market at -20% in YTD units sold, compared to this time last year. This is a major improvement from earlier this year and follows a trend that has been going on for quite a few weeks now. Average YTD sold price $520,729 vs last year's $641,225, and days on market (DOM) at 92 vs. '07's 76 at this time.
Single Family Residences (SFR) slipped again this week to 20.61% in contract, a buyers' market overall. Varies, of course, by city, town, neighborhood, condition, etc. Under $1 million "entry level" market still a sellers' market at 27.39% in contract, but just barely. Prices holding up better than condo's though with average YTD sold price at $1,314,021 vs. last year at this time $1,373,219 and DOM at 77 vs 07's 70 days at this same date. Word from local mortgage brokers is that loans are pretty much all "full doc" right now, with jumbo loans much scarcer than previously. This may improve a bit as more order returns to the national financial scene. In the meantime, buyers with cash are in a very good position.
More financial events playing out daily and it will probably be a while before we see the final result. One thing for sure though, if you need a place to live it is tough to beat Marin County, and over the long run, I'd bet on more price appreciation---
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, September 12, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.09.2008
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
An extremely interesting--one might even say historic--- week in the real estate industry. The Federal Government moved to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two mortgage finance giants which, together, are estimated to own or guarantee over half of the estimated $5 trillion or so of home mortgages in the US. The immediate effect was to stabilize mortgage rates, which dropped up to half a percentage point upon news of the action. Some expect further reductions of as much as another half a point. Investors in the stock of the two financial giants were in a position to suffer due to the now-diluted value of their holdings. The wider, long-term effects of the unprecedented action are unknown and the subject of much speculation, but is widely believed that the resultant calming of the financial markets bodes well for the continued availability of mortgage funds to homebuyers---some fear at great expense to taxpayers. For the full story, there are many artciles available by "Googling" "Fannie and Freddie takeover. What does it mean to you?" This reference courtesy of Andrew Grossman and Andy Kristen at Princeton Capital 415-464-3322.
Best of these articles is probably the Sep 7 New York Times piece, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/08/business/08consumer.html
Business Week also had a good article on September 8 http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/what_does_the_f.html
Marin County housing inventory up slightly in the week ending Sep 9, with 82 new Single Family Residence (SFR) and 24 new Condo listings. Percentage in contract up again from the week before, now 32.72% overall for condo's, a welcome turnaround for owners from the lows of just a few months ago. At this point, condo's are approaching the 35% in contract level at which the market would be considered a "strong sellers'" market. This was achieved through the pain of substantial price reductions, but it is, nonetheless, heartening to see some renewed strength in the market. SFR's percentage in contract held roughly steady at 21.79%, a buyers' market, with the upper end lagging, but the under-$1million segment still relatively hot at 29.7% in contract---technically a sellers' market. Varies considerably by city, town, and even neighborhood, so be sure to check with a knowledgeable local real estate professional. Sellers--- please remember, overpricing the one key mistake to avoid!
Savvy buyers still looking for bargains and overpriced listings still sitting.
Year-to-date unit sales continue to make progress vs. this time last year, with condo's @ -22.2% and SFR's at -25.2%. Last week's figures were -23.5% and -25.9% respectively. The last several weeks have seen continuing steady progress in narrowing these gaps. Look for continued activity and progress in the weeks between now and the start of the Holidays.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
An extremely interesting--one might even say historic--- week in the real estate industry. The Federal Government moved to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two mortgage finance giants which, together, are estimated to own or guarantee over half of the estimated $5 trillion or so of home mortgages in the US. The immediate effect was to stabilize mortgage rates, which dropped up to half a percentage point upon news of the action. Some expect further reductions of as much as another half a point. Investors in the stock of the two financial giants were in a position to suffer due to the now-diluted value of their holdings. The wider, long-term effects of the unprecedented action are unknown and the subject of much speculation, but is widely believed that the resultant calming of the financial markets bodes well for the continued availability of mortgage funds to homebuyers---some fear at great expense to taxpayers. For the full story, there are many artciles available by "Googling" "Fannie and Freddie takeover. What does it mean to you?" This reference courtesy of Andrew Grossman and Andy Kristen at Princeton Capital 415-464-3322.
Best of these articles is probably the Sep 7 New York Times piece, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/08/business/08consumer.html
Business Week also had a good article on September 8 http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/what_does_the_f.html
Marin County housing inventory up slightly in the week ending Sep 9, with 82 new Single Family Residence (SFR) and 24 new Condo listings. Percentage in contract up again from the week before, now 32.72% overall for condo's, a welcome turnaround for owners from the lows of just a few months ago. At this point, condo's are approaching the 35% in contract level at which the market would be considered a "strong sellers'" market. This was achieved through the pain of substantial price reductions, but it is, nonetheless, heartening to see some renewed strength in the market. SFR's percentage in contract held roughly steady at 21.79%, a buyers' market, with the upper end lagging, but the under-$1million segment still relatively hot at 29.7% in contract---technically a sellers' market. Varies considerably by city, town, and even neighborhood, so be sure to check with a knowledgeable local real estate professional. Sellers--- please remember, overpricing the one key mistake to avoid!
Savvy buyers still looking for bargains and overpriced listings still sitting.
Year-to-date unit sales continue to make progress vs. this time last year, with condo's @ -22.2% and SFR's at -25.2%. Last week's figures were -23.5% and -25.9% respectively. The last several weeks have seen continuing steady progress in narrowing these gaps. Look for continued activity and progress in the weeks between now and the start of the Holidays.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, September 7, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.02.2008
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/ )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows substantial changes and interesting, or even compelling opportunities. Sausalito with 4 out of 49 properties, or 8.16% in contract, Mill Valley with 26 out of 157, or 16.5% and San Anselmo, with 11 out of 81 listed properties (13.5%) in contract all present unusual buyer opportunities. Does this mean the bottom has fallen out of these markets? I don't think so. Does it mean the markets will go down further? Could be, but I wouldn't bet on it. Does it mean that every home in these markets will go out at a bargain basement price? No! It does mean that buyers who have felt locked out of these areas due to competition from other buyers and rising prices have a rare window of opportunity. It does mean that buyers who are qualified, shop around, and are flexible, can find suitable properties at prices they could have only dreamed of a year or two ago.
Novato and San Rafael continuing their sales renaissance with 31% and 28%, respectively, of listed homes in contract, another increase in the recent string of welcome good news for these two cities.
Overall, out of 13 listed towns and cities, 7 down from last month, 5 up, and one unchanged.
Single Family Residences (SFR) up overall to 28.9% in contract and in all categories between $0 and $1.99M, but down on the upper end with the $2M to $2.99M price point down to 16.16% in contract, and the over $3M segment at 10.5%. Again, more opportunity for upper-end buyers with cash on hand. A fair number of luxury properties are selling quietly, off the market, so do not show up in these statistics.
Year-to-date unit volume at 1110 vs. 1498 at this time last year, or-25.9%, another improvement conforming to the recent trend.
Condo's continue their amazing rebound at 31.27% in contract overall, a "Seller's"
market. Condo's from 0-$999K doing even better at 32.39% in contract, but luxury condo's between $1M and $1.99M down again to only 11.11% in contract. Year-to-date condo unit volume at 296 vs. 387 at this time last year, or -23.5%. This continued improvement in closing the gap follows the recent trend. Last week's caveat bears repeating yet again-----. This is not the seller's market we remember from a couple of years ago. The market is competitive and price-sensitive. Buyers are market-savvy and negotiate hard, but they are out there and they are buying property. Keys to the sale? Pricing, preparation, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate---the fundamentals.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows substantial changes and interesting, or even compelling opportunities. Sausalito with 4 out of 49 properties, or 8.16% in contract, Mill Valley with 26 out of 157, or 16.5% and San Anselmo, with 11 out of 81 listed properties (13.5%) in contract all present unusual buyer opportunities. Does this mean the bottom has fallen out of these markets? I don't think so. Does it mean the markets will go down further? Could be, but I wouldn't bet on it. Does it mean that every home in these markets will go out at a bargain basement price? No! It does mean that buyers who have felt locked out of these areas due to competition from other buyers and rising prices have a rare window of opportunity. It does mean that buyers who are qualified, shop around, and are flexible, can find suitable properties at prices they could have only dreamed of a year or two ago.
Novato and San Rafael continuing their sales renaissance with 31% and 28%, respectively, of listed homes in contract, another increase in the recent string of welcome good news for these two cities.
Overall, out of 13 listed towns and cities, 7 down from last month, 5 up, and one unchanged.
Single Family Residences (SFR) up overall to 28.9% in contract and in all categories between $0 and $1.99M, but down on the upper end with the $2M to $2.99M price point down to 16.16% in contract, and the over $3M segment at 10.5%. Again, more opportunity for upper-end buyers with cash on hand. A fair number of luxury properties are selling quietly, off the market, so do not show up in these statistics.
Year-to-date unit volume at 1110 vs. 1498 at this time last year, or-25.9%, another improvement conforming to the recent trend.
Condo's continue their amazing rebound at 31.27% in contract overall, a "Seller's"
market. Condo's from 0-$999K doing even better at 32.39% in contract, but luxury condo's between $1M and $1.99M down again to only 11.11% in contract. Year-to-date condo unit volume at 296 vs. 387 at this time last year, or -23.5%. This continued improvement in closing the gap follows the recent trend. Last week's caveat bears repeating yet again-----. This is not the seller's market we remember from a couple of years ago. The market is competitive and price-sensitive. Buyers are market-savvy and negotiate hard, but they are out there and they are buying property. Keys to the sale? Pricing, preparation, presentation, and the willingness to negotiate---the fundamentals.
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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