Sunday, March 18, 2012

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 3.18.12

Hello Everyone,
According to a March 15 report by San Diego, California-based DataQuick, a real estate information service, Marin County bucked  the Bay Area sales trend in February. Although sales unit volume was generally up in the nine county area (average 14.2%, Marin County 15.3%), prices were down approximately 3.6%, according to the report. The report went on to say that February was the 17th consecutive month of median sales price decreases for the 9-County region. Marin County, however, showed a median price increase of 7.6% compared to February of 2011. Only San Francisco joined Marin with an increase (5.9%).  All of the other seven counties experienced declining median prices compared to year-ago figures.  
According to our MLS figures, inventory continues to increase very very slowly, while percentage in contract shows consistent advances in almost every price segment.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
As of March 13, there were 830 SFR's on the MLS in the County, with 46.5% of them in contract. This compares to 42.88% at last report, two weeks ago. According to our guidelines, this segment now qualifies as a strong sellers'market. But most sellers appear not to be aware of this market shift, or just plain don't believe it. Lots of frustrated buyers out there just waiting to pounce on good-quality new inventory---- resulting in substantial numbers of multiple-offer situations. Not only that, but lots of all-cash deals where there is not a bank appraiser setting limits on purchase prices. The under-$1million price segment red hot at 58.3% in contract (302 of 518). We are calling this a very strong sellers' market. $1million to $1.99 million segment at 32.6% in contract, crossing the line from "buyers'" to "balanced" market during the last two weeks. $2million to $2.99 million segment declined very slightly, from 24.49% to 23.73% in contract-- not enough to even call a decline. Let's call it "holding steady" and recognize it as a possibly endangered species of current Marin housing bargains. Still a buyers' market, but may not stay that way for long. $3million and up segment still a bargaining opportunity in many cases, but, at 12.7% in contract, has advanced from only 9.09% at last report--- out of "very strong buyers" territory and now qualifying as "strong buyers". Buyers please take note! Year to date (YTD) SFR unit sales at 296 compared to 280 at the same time last year. This represents an increase of 5.7%. At our last report, the increase was 10.3%. This may be just a small blip in sales activity rather than a trend. At this time of year, when the numbers are still small, it does not take much to affect them one way or another.  YTD average list and sales prices also show increases. 2011 YTD average SFR list price as of March 13 was $939,697 and the average sales price was $885,096. The current figures (still March 13) are $1,042,142 and $985,873. And average days on market (DOM) declined slightly from 145 to 140. Lots of positive signs!   
Condominiums
YTD unit sales of condo's at 99, compared to the year-ago figure of 98. We have been waiting for this number to go "positive". It was -9.5% at last report, so the current figure of +1% is a very positive sign! There were 236 condominium units on the market in Marin County as of March 13. 132 of them, or 55.93% were in contract, a number that is roughly the same as our last report, but representing a strong sellers' market. In the under- $1million condo market (all but about 10 units), 57.78% of listed units are in contract, making it a very strong sellers' market. Prices of condo units not as encouraging as SFR's, with the YTD average list price at $335,000 on March 13, and the average sales price at $324,321. Compares to the year-ago figures of $370,482 and $360,331. Average DOM have come down though, from last year's (March 13) figure of 167 to the current 156. Looks to be headed in the right direction.
Marin County real estate market appears to be headed in a positive direction as we prepare to enter the second calendar quarter, and the traditionally hot spring sales period.
We do need some more sellers to get on board and list their homes so that we will have something to sell.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred 
p.s. for charts and graphs please visit my website:
  

Saturday, March 3, 2012

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 3.4.2012

Hello Everyone,

City-by-City report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up, since our report last month, in 10 of the 13 cities and towns we follow. Fairfax leads the pack, with an amazing 68.75% (*) (11 of 16) of MLS-listed homes in contract as of March 1. Novato is next, at 57.55%, with San Rafael and Greenbrae nearly tied at 55+-% each. Kentfield with the lowest numbers this month, showing only 1 of 19 listed homes in contract, a little over 5%. Belvedere next, with 2 of 21 listed homes (9%) in contract.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

Coldwell Banker Market Action Report(+) shows available inventory of SFR's on February 29 at 436 units, less than half of the February inventory for the past two years. It was 858 in 2011, and 881 in 2010. February new listings at only 205 units, vs 270 in February of 2011, and 247 in 2010. Price per square foot at $424, up from $381 in 2011 but slightly less than 2010's $435. Days on Market (DOM) at 140--- an improvement from 155 last February but more than 133 days in February of 2010. 225 SFR units sold (YTD, MLS) as of 28 Feb, up about 10.3% from 2011's YTD sales of 204 units on the same date. This actually reflects a slight deceleration from our last report, when the numbers were up 27%------- a trend? or just normal fluctuation---? We will have to wait and see.

Condominiums

Condo Market Action Report (+) shows inventory at 118 units on February 29, compared to 318 last February, and 310 in 2010. Days on Market at 157, up from last year's 149, and 2010's 133. Price per square foot has been dropping and currently at $254, compared to $275 a year ago, and $331 two years back. Only 58 new condo listings came on the market in February, compared to 87 in February of 2011, and 81 in 2010. YTD sales of condo's in the County at 76 on 28 February (MLS), vs. 84 last year at the same time, a reduction of 9.5%---but, actually representing a gain since last report, when this number was down 17.5%.

Unit sales of SFR's up, but losing momentum in February, while condo unit sales were down, but gaining momentum. Not clear if this is a developing trend, but definitely worth watching. Condo buyers and sellers may want to take note.

Local REALTORS starting to speak more and more confidently about prospects for the Marin housing market. Still lots of reports of multiple offers on attractive new listings, with frustrated buyers pouncing, often with all-cash and short closes. Makes it more challenging for even well-qualified buyers who need loans-- especially if they are FHA or VA loans, although many of these buyers eventually achieve success if they are realistic and persistent. Sometimes takes several offers before getting into contract.

A couple of articles received via email this week, courtesy of Fred Nelson at the CB Greenbrae Castle, report growing confidence in the national real estate market. The International Business Times article quotes Warren Buffet as saying that single family homes are now cheap and attractive investments. Read the article at:

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/306749/20120229/real-estate-forecast-2012-warren-buffett.htm

The second article, from Bloomberg News, titled: "U.S. Housing Lays Foundation for Recovery as Buyers Coaxed Back" also paints an optimistic picture of the national real estate market. Read the full text at:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02/housing-in-u-s-lays-foundation-for-recovery-as-economy-coaxes-buyers-back.html

There seems to be more optimism among agents, analysts, and investors, than there has been in quite some time. The Bloomberg article also notes that banks are beginning, gradually, to come back on line with mortgage lending. It appears that 2012 may be a pivotal year for real estate, and the beginning of recovery.


More next time. Until then,

Best wishes to all,

Fred

• * MLS statistics

• + CB MarketQuest statistics

• MLS and MarketQuest differ in the way they count listings that are in contract, so they are not directly comparable, but are consistent with other numbers in their own database.


p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/