The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 3.4.2012

Hello Everyone,

City-by-City report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up, since our report last month, in 10 of the 13 cities and towns we follow. Fairfax leads the pack, with an amazing 68.75% (*) (11 of 16) of MLS-listed homes in contract as of March 1. Novato is next, at 57.55%, with San Rafael and Greenbrae nearly tied at 55+-% each. Kentfield with the lowest numbers this month, showing only 1 of 19 listed homes in contract, a little over 5%. Belvedere next, with 2 of 21 listed homes (9%) in contract.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

Coldwell Banker Market Action Report(+) shows available inventory of SFR's on February 29 at 436 units, less than half of the February inventory for the past two years. It was 858 in 2011, and 881 in 2010. February new listings at only 205 units, vs 270 in February of 2011, and 247 in 2010. Price per square foot at $424, up from $381 in 2011 but slightly less than 2010's $435. Days on Market (DOM) at 140--- an improvement from 155 last February but more than 133 days in February of 2010. 225 SFR units sold (YTD, MLS) as of 28 Feb, up about 10.3% from 2011's YTD sales of 204 units on the same date. This actually reflects a slight deceleration from our last report, when the numbers were up 27%------- a trend? or just normal fluctuation---? We will have to wait and see.

Condominiums

Condo Market Action Report (+) shows inventory at 118 units on February 29, compared to 318 last February, and 310 in 2010. Days on Market at 157, up from last year's 149, and 2010's 133. Price per square foot has been dropping and currently at $254, compared to $275 a year ago, and $331 two years back. Only 58 new condo listings came on the market in February, compared to 87 in February of 2011, and 81 in 2010. YTD sales of condo's in the County at 76 on 28 February (MLS), vs. 84 last year at the same time, a reduction of 9.5%---but, actually representing a gain since last report, when this number was down 17.5%.

Unit sales of SFR's up, but losing momentum in February, while condo unit sales were down, but gaining momentum. Not clear if this is a developing trend, but definitely worth watching. Condo buyers and sellers may want to take note.

Local REALTORS starting to speak more and more confidently about prospects for the Marin housing market. Still lots of reports of multiple offers on attractive new listings, with frustrated buyers pouncing, often with all-cash and short closes. Makes it more challenging for even well-qualified buyers who need loans-- especially if they are FHA or VA loans, although many of these buyers eventually achieve success if they are realistic and persistent. Sometimes takes several offers before getting into contract.

A couple of articles received via email this week, courtesy of Fred Nelson at the CB Greenbrae Castle, report growing confidence in the national real estate market. The International Business Times article quotes Warren Buffet as saying that single family homes are now cheap and attractive investments. Read the article at:

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/306749/20120229/real-estate-forecast-2012-warren-buffett.htm

The second article, from Bloomberg News, titled: "U.S. Housing Lays Foundation for Recovery as Buyers Coaxed Back" also paints an optimistic picture of the national real estate market. Read the full text at:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02/housing-in-u-s-lays-foundation-for-recovery-as-economy-coaxes-buyers-back.html

There seems to be more optimism among agents, analysts, and investors, than there has been in quite some time. The Bloomberg article also notes that banks are beginning, gradually, to come back on line with mortgage lending. It appears that 2012 may be a pivotal year for real estate, and the beginning of recovery.


More next time. Until then,

Best wishes to all,

Fred

• * MLS statistics

• + CB MarketQuest statistics

• MLS and MarketQuest differ in the way they count listings that are in contract, so they are not directly comparable, but are consistent with other numbers in their own database.


p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/