for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
3.20.2009
Hello Everyone,
Better economic news this week:
From CNNMoney.com,
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks managed gains for the second week in a row despite tumbling Friday, as investors pulled back after the recent run.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 122 points or 1.7%. However, it also managed slim gains for the week, rising for the second week in a row for the first time since last May. Full story at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
March 20 Wall Street Journal headline Informs "Under 5% Mortgages Are Likely At the Bottom", saying "The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed."
Here in the Marin County housing market, both inventory and activity are up, with exuberance of spring buoying spirits and tempting both buyers and sellers.
Single Family Residences (SFR): Inventory at 956 homes, 193 in contract, or 20.19, about a 1 point increase over two weeks ago. Still a "buyers' " market overall but mostly due to continued sluggishness in the upper end. Listings above $1million at between 5% and 12% in contract continue to be attractive buying opportunities for those flush with cash or with excellent credit and sufficient down payment. Properties under $1million at 28.7% in contract on a county-wide basis with 149 of 519 listings in contract as of March 17. Typically this would qualify as a sellers' market but sellers are cautioned that buyers continue to be particularly price and value sensitive and may wish to exercise restraint in pricing and negotiations. YTD SFR sales at 163 compared to 234 at this time last year. Average selling price at $910,508 vs last year's $1,365,544. Not necessarily an indication that housing values have declined to this extent. Market mix of homes selling comprised of more entry-level homes due to relative ease of obtaining "conforming mortgages" (up to $729,750) vs. "jumbo's". Between 3/4 and 3/17, there were 153 new listings of SFR's and125 price reductions. 73 listings went contingent, 41 pending, and 31 were sold. 26 Listings expired and 41 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's continuing their excellent run with 101 of 308 listings in contract overall, or 32.79%. In the $0-999K range, 97 of 293 listings are in contract, or 33.11%. Even the $1million-$1.99 million range has 4 of 15 units in contract, or 26.67%. Prices for sold units at $297,680 vs. last year's $584,103, or just about half. This reflecting the large numbers of REO (bank-owned) properties selling at deep discounts, particularly in Novato. Again, not necessarily an indication that condo's in the county have lost this kind of value. For an accurate assessment of market value, contact an experienced local real estate professional. Year-to-date units sold at 74 vs. 60 at this time last year, or an increase of 23.3%. For the period from 3/4/09 to 2/17/09, there were 33 new condo listings and 46 price reductions. 36 listings went contingent, 11 pending, and 15 were sold. 10 listings expired and 11 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Friday, March 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.06.2009
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Economy and stock market continue to rock and roll, with the Dow finishing the week in the 6700 range, lowest since 1997. Much of this on fears about Citibank and GM. According to the March 6 Wall Street Journal, GM now openly talking about the possibility of a "pre-packaged" bankruptcy while their auditors say they may not be able to continue operations under the current conditions----something unthinkable only months ago.
Marin City by City Analysis out this week shows Novato and San Rafael out in front of the pack at 34.2% and 27.1%, respectively, of MLS listings in-contract as of March 3. As we have discussed before, this primarily due to REO activity and resultant lower prices. Out of 13 towns and cities covered by the report, 7 showed increased percentage in contract, 5 decreased and San Anselmo remained essentially unchanged at 16%. Greenbrae at the bottom of the ladder with 0 of 20 listings in contract as of March 3.
Single Family Residences down to 19.22% in contract overall. This, primarily due to lagging sales in the over- $1million listings, which range from 6.9% to 12.55% in contract- solid buyers markets with big opportunities for those well qualified for loans or with cash to spend. Conversely, the under-$1million market at 26.15% in contract, down a bit from last month's 30.6%, but still respectable. Year to date (YTD) units sold at 133 to March 3 vs. 177 last year, a drop of 24.8% but actually a slight improvement over -27% in last month's report. Average sale price of units sold YTD is at $838,372 vs. $1,398,972 last year at the same time. This due in large part to less expensive homes selling (the under-$1million segment mentioned above), and not an indication that home prices have plummeted 40%. Days on Market (DOM) for sold listings at 116 vs. 109 a year ago. In February, there were 225 new SFR listings, 56 sales, 148 accepted offers and 121 listings expired or were cancelled (MarketQuest).
Condo's doing quite nicely at 31.2% in contract overall and 59 units sold YTD as of March 3 vs. 43 units last year at the same time, an increase of 37%. Again, average prices for units sold at $306,400 vs. last year's $600,887 a result of lower-end units selling and not an indication of a 50% collapse in value, though condominium values, particularly in northern Marin have suffered due to REO sales. DOM at117 vs. 95 at this time in 08. In February there were 75 new condo listings, 22 sales, 68 accepted offers and 46 listings expired or were cancelled (Market Quest).
Current market offers great opportunity with excellent prices. Good ability to negotiate. Great loan rates. Not likely we will see a confluence of these events again for many years. Wise buyers and sellers benefit from the experience and market knowledge of experienced local real estate professionals and loan officers/mortgage brokers-- invaluable in this kind of environment.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Economy and stock market continue to rock and roll, with the Dow finishing the week in the 6700 range, lowest since 1997. Much of this on fears about Citibank and GM. According to the March 6 Wall Street Journal, GM now openly talking about the possibility of a "pre-packaged" bankruptcy while their auditors say they may not be able to continue operations under the current conditions----something unthinkable only months ago.
Marin City by City Analysis out this week shows Novato and San Rafael out in front of the pack at 34.2% and 27.1%, respectively, of MLS listings in-contract as of March 3. As we have discussed before, this primarily due to REO activity and resultant lower prices. Out of 13 towns and cities covered by the report, 7 showed increased percentage in contract, 5 decreased and San Anselmo remained essentially unchanged at 16%. Greenbrae at the bottom of the ladder with 0 of 20 listings in contract as of March 3.
Single Family Residences down to 19.22% in contract overall. This, primarily due to lagging sales in the over- $1million listings, which range from 6.9% to 12.55% in contract- solid buyers markets with big opportunities for those well qualified for loans or with cash to spend. Conversely, the under-$1million market at 26.15% in contract, down a bit from last month's 30.6%, but still respectable. Year to date (YTD) units sold at 133 to March 3 vs. 177 last year, a drop of 24.8% but actually a slight improvement over -27% in last month's report. Average sale price of units sold YTD is at $838,372 vs. $1,398,972 last year at the same time. This due in large part to less expensive homes selling (the under-$1million segment mentioned above), and not an indication that home prices have plummeted 40%. Days on Market (DOM) for sold listings at 116 vs. 109 a year ago. In February, there were 225 new SFR listings, 56 sales, 148 accepted offers and 121 listings expired or were cancelled (MarketQuest).
Condo's doing quite nicely at 31.2% in contract overall and 59 units sold YTD as of March 3 vs. 43 units last year at the same time, an increase of 37%. Again, average prices for units sold at $306,400 vs. last year's $600,887 a result of lower-end units selling and not an indication of a 50% collapse in value, though condominium values, particularly in northern Marin have suffered due to REO sales. DOM at117 vs. 95 at this time in 08. In February there were 75 new condo listings, 22 sales, 68 accepted offers and 46 listings expired or were cancelled (Market Quest).
Current market offers great opportunity with excellent prices. Good ability to negotiate. Great loan rates. Not likely we will see a confluence of these events again for many years. Wise buyers and sellers benefit from the experience and market knowledge of experienced local real estate professionals and loan officers/mortgage brokers-- invaluable in this kind of environment.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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