The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.16.12

Hello Everyone,

As of April 10, the number of Single Family Residences (SFR) listed for sale on the Marin MLS actually decreased from 868 in our March 27 report, to 854. Number of homes in contract increased from 402 to 419. The net effect of this was that percentage in contract increased again, to 49.06%--- a Strong Sellers' Market by our current criteria. Homes under $1million really through the roof (clever, yes?), with listings down to 511 from 536 on March 27, and number of homes in contract increasing during the period, from 315 to 326. Doing the math on this tells us that an incredible 63.8% of MLS-listed SFR's were in contract on April 10. We are calling this a Very Strong Sellers' Market. Sellers take note. If you are thinking of selling your home in this price range, this could be the best opportunity in years! SFR's in upper price ranges somewhat more reasonable, but the clock is ticking. $1million-$2million range at 34.68% in contract, a balanced market. $2million-$3million at 29.58% in contract, still just barely in Buyers' Market territory, and headed north. Homes in the $3million and up category nearly doubled their percentage in contract during the period, from 8.96% to 17.65% in contract, vaulting out of Very Strong Buyers' into Strong Buyers' territory. Still opportunities here for the smart money, but perhaps not for long----time will tell.

 

As of April 10, YTD sales of SFR's in the County at 489 units, compared to 418 a year ago, or up 16.9%. Average days on market (DOM) down from 141 to 133. Average sales price up slightly, to $953,153 from the year-ago figure of $936,295.

 

Market temperature  definitely rising!

 

Condominium  inventory increased by one unit, to 250, and units in contract decreased by one unit, to 142. Percentage in contract at 56.8%-- still in Very Strong Sellers' market territory, even with a 6/10 of a point drop. 140 of 238 listed condo's under $1million in contract, or 58.82%- also remaining in Very Strong Sellers' Market territory, with a 6/10 point drop. As of April 10, 146 condo units had sold, YTD, compared to 140 at the same time in 2011, or up 4.3%. This is actually a slight drop, as it iwas up 8.9% at our last report. Average DOM for sold condo units at 157, compared to 177 last year at the same time. Average sold price down somewhat, from $393,675 in April of 2011, to $342,392 on April 10. A significant percentage of this drop (probably about 50%) most likely due to changes in market mix rather than price depreciation.

 

Hotsheet statistics show 157 properties went contingent between March 28 and April 10, and 117 units sold, while only 118 new listings came on the market.  Reality from ground-level is that buyers continue to compete for good new inventory, resulting in a substantial number of multiple offers over asking price. Rule of thumb for buyers is--if you see a property you like, make an offer---. Chances are it may not be available next week.

 

More next time. Until then---

 

Best wishes to all,

 

Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com

 

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.3.12

​Hello Everyone,

City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up in 9 of the 13 cities and towns we follow, and down in only 4. Two of the decreases (Mill Valley and Larkspur) were so small that we could call those markets stable. Fairfax's decrease was due to a significant influx in new listings, and the Greenbrae figures were influenced by a swing of only 3 listings. So really, the idea of decreasing percentage in contract does not seem to be a significant factor at this time. Always popular, Corte Madera is in the lead again this time, with 26 of 38 listed properties in contract, or 68.4%. Novato and San Rafael not far behind, with 59.7% and 56.45% respectively. All three of these markets qualify as Very Strong Sellers' markets under our guidelines.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

Inventory* at 454 homes as of March 31. Compares to 954 last March 31, 1082 in 2010, and 1250 in 2009. Sellers with outdated ideas about the favorability of the market may want to take a quick look at current reality and take advantage of the unusual conditions with buyers out in droves, snapping up good inventory quickly. 171 SFR's sold in March, same as last year, and about 30 more units than the previous two years (2010 and 2009). Average sales price was down just a bit from the $1,040,000 in March of 2011, at $908K, but remember, at least half of this is attributable to market mix rather than price declines. What we are actually seeing is a lot of multiple-offer activity. Still quite a few all-cash and quick-close offers being presented, frustrating well-qualified would-be buyers who need loans. 46.31% of all MLS-listed SFR's were in contract as of March 27-- about the same percentage as at last report. Homes under $1million also held steady at 58.77% in contract, a high figure by historical standards. This indicates a Very Strong Sellers' Market by our guidelines. $1million to $1.99 million segment also holding steady at just under 32%, and we are calling it a balanced market. $2-$2.99million segment up 4 points to 27.94%, still a buyers' market, but not by much and probably not for long. Homes in the over-$3million range still waiting for the fuse to be lit and settling back a bit at 8.96% in contract, a very strong buyers' market. Buyers of high-end homes take note--- there is still an opportunity here! As of 3/27, 380 SFR's had sold, YTD compared to 350 at the same time in 2011, an 8.6% increase. At last report, this figure was up 5.7%, so continuing to increase.

Condominiums

Condo Inventory* very low, at only 106 units on 3/31-- compares to 293 in 2011 at the same time, 178 in 2010, and 176 in 2009 51 condominium units sold in March vs. 43 at the same time last year, 39 in 2010, and 42 in 2009. Average sales price down to $380,000, compared to $446K at the same time last year, $411k in 2010, and $427k in 2009. (see sales-price notes above under single family residences) 57.43% of all MLS-listed Condo's, were in contract as of March 27-- up about a point and a half from our last report. Condo's under $1million (all but 10) also increased their percentage in contract slightly to 59.41% from 57.785 last time. This qualifies as a very strong sellers' market. Those shopping for over-$1million condo's may still be in luck, as only 1 unit out of the 10 listed properties was in contract on March 27. As of 3/27, 122 condominium units had sold, YTD, compared to 112 at the same time in 2011, an 8.9% increase. Compares to 1% at last report, so a strong increase for the two-week period.

Marin County real estate market active and buyer activity high. Buyers continue to experience frustration due to lack of quality inventory. This creates a significant opportunity for sellers to enter the market. It appears that the market either has, or is just about to "turn the corner", depending on one's particular point of view. Mortgage rates still good and mortgage money now much more available than in the recent past. How the year turns out will depend on whether sellers finally decide it is time to place their homes back on the market. We will find out!

Until the next time, best wishes to all,


Fred





* Inventory figures differ between MLS and CB MarketQuest because of the way each counts listings that are in contract

​