12.19.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Wishing everyone a wonderful and safe Holiday Season and a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year.
In the new year, reports will be twice a month, at the beginning and in the middle of the month. This will be the last report in 2008.
In financial news for the week, President Bush announced a bailout plan for Detroit. Lots of opposition to this from folks who contend that automakers have mis-managed their business for many years now, relying on the "cash cow" sales from SUV's instead of looking towards the future and developing sustainable products and strategies. Argument is that they have had the opportunity to improve their products and their management since the first energy crisis in the early 70's. As usual, there are two sides to this story. In a normal economy, having one automaker declare bankruptcy might be an option. Feeling is that in the current economy, already in a major recession, the ripple effect on unemployment, investments, and other segments of the economy from having 2 or more automakers in bankruptcy is just too great to ignore. Stock market yawned at the news, actually losing 25 points on the Dow by the end of the day Friday, Dec 19. Meltdown probably avoided by Bush's action though. Remains to be seen what Obama administration will do starting in January and where this will all take us in 2009 and beyond. At least the new administration will now have a chance to work on a solution from a place of relative stability rather than chaos.
Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve reduced the rate at which it loans money to member banks to a range of 0-.25%, a historic low. Stocks rallied on that news.
San Francisco Chronicle headline for December 19 blares: "Rush To Refinance" "As mortgage rates plunge to lows not seen in decades, lenders brace for surge of homeowners taking advantage--but many troubled borrowers will be left out in the cold".
La Jolla-based DataQuick Real Estate News, in an article dated December 18, proclaimed:
Bay Area median home price sinks to 8-year low; sales up over '07 again
In part, the article stated:
"Bay Area home sales decelerated in November but beat the year-ago mark for the third consecutive month. The allure of discounted foreclosures continued to drive sales in affordable inland markets, which helped push the median sale price down to its lowest point since former President Bill Clinton was in the White House."
Article goes on to state how sales of bank-owned real estate are diluting the various Bay Area markets.
Full text of article available at
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081218.aspx
Only thing we can say for certain is that 2009 will be an action-packed year, and a year of great transition and great opportunity. Stay tuned for more excitement!
Marin County Real Estate:
Inventory was down again across the board. Some prospective sellers deferred action over the holidays in favor of waiting until January while a number of sellers with homes on the market withdrew them temporarily for the holidays.
Single Family Residences total active inventory down to 783 as of December 16 compared to 871 the previous week. Percentage in contract up slightly to 19.11% from 18.6% the week before--- still a buyers' market. Homes under $1million slipped slightly to 26.73% in contract, still technically a sellers' market. Some notable sales over asking price with multiple offers, but in general a very price-sensitive market with buyers choosy and skittish. Properties over $1million still a strong buyers' market-- great opportunity for buyers with cash to spend. More properties than usual dropping out of escrow during the contingency period. Important for sellers to pick buyers carefully and to be willing to negotiate in good faith. Services of an experienced local real estate professional invaluable in this market.
Condominium inventory down just four units from last week at 268. Percentage in contract up 2 points to 35%. 485 units sold year-to-date, compared to 494 at the same time last year. Anyone care to guess whether we will end the year even, ahead, or behind 2007? In any case, REO sales have driven average price down to $480,515 from last year's $647,376. Keep in mind that only part of this is price reduction, with part due to more lower-end homes being sold.
More in 2009.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Friday, December 19, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 12.12.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Christmas now less than two weeks away. Marin housing market generally slower as folks get ready for the Holidays. Inventory down again in almost all segments Quite a bit of activity underlying the calm market facade. A "cottage" industry going on with off-market listings. Seems sellers leery of the current market are telling their agents to sell off the MLS, thinking this will keep their property from getting "stale" if it does not garner any offers. Problem is less exposure to agents and to the market. Less certainty of correct pricing for both buyer and seller. Economic theory supports the proposition that perfect markets require perfect information. Logically, the less perfect the information, the less perfect the market so off-market sales-----------.
REO's (bank-owned real estate) active in the County with some attracting multiple offers over asking price and some failing to meet the banks' minimum price points and being held over for continued market exposure. An REO in San Anselmo this week received over 10 offers.
Interest rates excellent, presenting no problem for the well-qualified, save the extra energy required to jump through multiple lender hoops. Some buyers qualifying for a bit less in terms of loan value due to increased down-payment requirements. Resurgence of interest in Private Mortgage Insurance for those with less than 20% down. Mortgage interest rates dropped again during the period ending December 12, with available options currently at multi-year lows according to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital in Greenbrae.
Single Family Residences
As of December 9, there were 871 SFR's listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service, down from 889 the week before. 162 of these, or 18.6% were in contract making it a buyers' market overall. Of the homes listed, 458 were priced under $1million and 27.29% of those were in contract, technically a sellers' market (over 25% in contract). Notwithstanding this, market in general continues to be very sensitive to price. Location, condition, staging also critical in this market. Experienced local real estate professionals invaluable in assessing market values. Upper end of the market continues to lag with $1million to $2million at 10% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.33% in contract, and over-$3million at only 5.8% in contract. Great opportunity for cash-heavy buyers to score big bargains. Move-up buyers note this is a very rare opportunity to benefit from big savings on your trade.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 29 new listings, 50 price reductions.
20 Listings went contingent and 24 went pending. 16 homes sold, 10 listings expired, and 51 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to burn up the road with late-season sales gains. 481 year-to-date condo sales in the County compare to 484 at the same time last year. Prices significantly lower with average sale price of $479,937 vs. $648,437 last year at the same time. Days on market longer at 106 vs 83 in '07.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 11 new listings, 20 price reductions.
11 Listings went contingent and 3 went pending. 13 units sold, 5 listings expired, and 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Hello Everyone,
Christmas now less than two weeks away. Marin housing market generally slower as folks get ready for the Holidays. Inventory down again in almost all segments Quite a bit of activity underlying the calm market facade. A "cottage" industry going on with off-market listings. Seems sellers leery of the current market are telling their agents to sell off the MLS, thinking this will keep their property from getting "stale" if it does not garner any offers. Problem is less exposure to agents and to the market. Less certainty of correct pricing for both buyer and seller. Economic theory supports the proposition that perfect markets require perfect information. Logically, the less perfect the information, the less perfect the market so off-market sales-----------.
REO's (bank-owned real estate) active in the County with some attracting multiple offers over asking price and some failing to meet the banks' minimum price points and being held over for continued market exposure. An REO in San Anselmo this week received over 10 offers.
Interest rates excellent, presenting no problem for the well-qualified, save the extra energy required to jump through multiple lender hoops. Some buyers qualifying for a bit less in terms of loan value due to increased down-payment requirements. Resurgence of interest in Private Mortgage Insurance for those with less than 20% down. Mortgage interest rates dropped again during the period ending December 12, with available options currently at multi-year lows according to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital in Greenbrae.
Single Family Residences
As of December 9, there were 871 SFR's listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service, down from 889 the week before. 162 of these, or 18.6% were in contract making it a buyers' market overall. Of the homes listed, 458 were priced under $1million and 27.29% of those were in contract, technically a sellers' market (over 25% in contract). Notwithstanding this, market in general continues to be very sensitive to price. Location, condition, staging also critical in this market. Experienced local real estate professionals invaluable in assessing market values. Upper end of the market continues to lag with $1million to $2million at 10% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.33% in contract, and over-$3million at only 5.8% in contract. Great opportunity for cash-heavy buyers to score big bargains. Move-up buyers note this is a very rare opportunity to benefit from big savings on your trade.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 29 new listings, 50 price reductions.
20 Listings went contingent and 24 went pending. 16 homes sold, 10 listings expired, and 51 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to burn up the road with late-season sales gains. 481 year-to-date condo sales in the County compare to 484 at the same time last year. Prices significantly lower with average sale price of $479,937 vs. $648,437 last year at the same time. Days on market longer at 106 vs 83 in '07.
During the 7 days ended on 12/9/2008, there were 11 new listings, 20 price reductions.
11 Listings went contingent and 3 went pending. 13 units sold, 5 listings expired, and 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 12.06.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Another volatile week in the stock market. All over the map on adverse job reports, lack of a bailout plan for the "big 3" auto-makers and other news. Will probably stay jumpy for a while. Ended the week down only about 190 points on the Dow after making up for some much larger losses earlier in the week.
City by City report out this week shows Novato and San Rafael continue to be strong performers, pushed along (particularly in Novato) by REO (bank owned property) sales at bargain prices. Novato at 34.7% in contract for single family homes and condo sales combined. Normally we would characterize this as being within a breath of a "strong sellers' market" which we think of as 35% or more in contract. This market much more sensitive to price so sellers should be aware to dress up their homes and price them for the market. Greenbrae turned in the only other solid performance, but on such light volume that one unit more or less could have swung the statistics another way. Everything else in central/southern Marin in buyers' or strong buyers' territory.
SFR (single family residence) total listings down to 889. Everything a buyers' or strong buyers' market on a county-wide basis except the $1million and under "entry-level" market which is at 26.9% in contract, just into sellers' market territory. Sellers be aware this is a bit of a misnomer as sales very sensitive to price, presentation, and buyer perception. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 40 new listings and 32 price reductions. 28 listings went contingent, 9 pending, 20 sold, 41 expired, and 33 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's lost just a bit of ground from last week, but the under -$1million segment (all but 8 units) still at 34.18% in contract, a very strong showing and close to the 35% "strong sellers' market" threshold. Inventory down to 283 from last week's 306. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 10 new listings and 17 price reductions. 7 Units went contingent, 9 went pending, 13 were sold, 18 expired, and 14 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Another volatile week in the stock market. All over the map on adverse job reports, lack of a bailout plan for the "big 3" auto-makers and other news. Will probably stay jumpy for a while. Ended the week down only about 190 points on the Dow after making up for some much larger losses earlier in the week.
City by City report out this week shows Novato and San Rafael continue to be strong performers, pushed along (particularly in Novato) by REO (bank owned property) sales at bargain prices. Novato at 34.7% in contract for single family homes and condo sales combined. Normally we would characterize this as being within a breath of a "strong sellers' market" which we think of as 35% or more in contract. This market much more sensitive to price so sellers should be aware to dress up their homes and price them for the market. Greenbrae turned in the only other solid performance, but on such light volume that one unit more or less could have swung the statistics another way. Everything else in central/southern Marin in buyers' or strong buyers' territory.
SFR (single family residence) total listings down to 889. Everything a buyers' or strong buyers' market on a county-wide basis except the $1million and under "entry-level" market which is at 26.9% in contract, just into sellers' market territory. Sellers be aware this is a bit of a misnomer as sales very sensitive to price, presentation, and buyer perception. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 40 new listings and 32 price reductions. 28 listings went contingent, 9 pending, 20 sold, 41 expired, and 33 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's lost just a bit of ground from last week, but the under -$1million segment (all but 8 units) still at 34.18% in contract, a very strong showing and close to the 35% "strong sellers' market" threshold. Inventory down to 283 from last week's 306. For the 7 days ended on Dec 2, there were 10 new listings and 17 price reductions. 7 Units went contingent, 9 went pending, 13 were sold, 18 expired, and 14 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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