Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones closed on Friday,September 18 above 9800--- a pretty good week !
LaJolla, CA-based MDA Data Quick ran the an article headed:
Bay Area August home sales and median price fall
saying that although Bay Area sales fell August compared to July, they were still 4% higher than in August of 2008, a trend they noted has now continued for 12 consecutive months. Blaming the drop on "a thinner inventory of distressed properties for sale, (and) fewer 'bargains' ", the article went on to quote MDA Data Quick President, John Walsh---- "people are still concerned about job security, and about how many foreclosures might yet hit the market. " "There are ongoing reports of mortgage delinquencies rising, yet the number of homes being foreclosed on has trended down lately. It’s bred a lot of uncertainty among the pundits and the public about how many more foreclosures are coming, when they’ll hit, and what impact they’ll have on prices.”
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090917.aspx
Here in Marin County, inventories of both single family homes (SFR) and condo's increased modestly.
Numbers of newly-listed SFR's were up considerably from last report at 140 vs. 98, while "sold" listings dropped from 89 to 51, most likely reflecting the pause from the Labor Day holiday, its anticipation and aftermath. Contingent listings doing reasonably well at 95 compared to 105 at last report. Inventory of SFR's overall at 1199 compared to last report's 1156 with percentage in contract up again to 27.69% overall and up to a very strong 40.13% for properties under $1million. In fact, the percentage in contract of every SFR price point increased with the exception of the over-$3million segment which declined from 6.31% to 4.5% on the strength of only a two listing change. Translation--- sample size too small to be statistically significant. Year-to-date (YTD) SFR units sold at 1048 compared to the same time last year when they were at 1181. Difference -11.3%, a bit more negative than last report's -10.46% figure.
Condominiums new listings at 27 compared to 32 at last report, a slight drop. Sold listings holding steady for the period at 19, pendings also at 19, and contingent's dropping from 39 to 21 perhaps reflecting the "thinner inventory of distressed properties" discussed above. Total condo listings dropped slightly from 331 to 324 and percentage in contract also dropping a bit from 42.9% to 40.43% overall and from 44.65% to 42.39% in the under-$1million segment. Still putting forth a pretty good showing.
Number of condo's sold YTD down again and now at -2% compared to a year ago at 320 vs. 327 in '08 at this time--- this after several months at the beginning of the year with a large sales lead. Condo market which was the epicenter of the REO market has cooled from its earlier frenzied pace.
Lots of talk in the real estate community of multiple offers, but with a big difference from previous markets. Even with multiples, many properties not going much (if at all) over asking price. Of course there are always exceptions for prime properties. One story had a multi-million dollar home selling at a substantial profit after only a relatively brief period of ownership. Most owners will do well not to count on this kind of "bounce" but to carefully price, prepare and present their properties using the advice of an experienced local real estate professional familiar with their market.
More next time. (also, watch for the monthly city-by-city report)
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Sunday, September 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 09.01.2009
Hello Everyone,
Hard to believe it is almost fall. Where did the summer go?
Dow Jones ended the week down just a bit over 1% after losing over 180 points on Monday and gaining back about half of that on Friday. Investors cautiously dipping their toes back into the market but watching the economic news carefully.
Here in Marin County, the City by City report, out this week shows most cities and towns trading in essentially the same range in August as they did in July. San Anselmo slipped a bit to 17.35% in contract vs. July's 23.4% while Fairfax roared ahead, accelerating from 26.67% all the way to 36.96% in contract. San Rafael and Novato still lead the County in percentage in contract with 34.44% and 49.56% respectively. Yes that is correct, nearly half the listings in Novato were in contract as of September 1!
Single Family Residences overall at 25.61% in contract, down a couple of points since the last report-- basically a balanced market. Homes in the $0-$999K price range at 37% in contract overall, much of this reflected in the previously mentioned Novato and San Rafael markets which weight the averages. Homes over $2million still an attractive opportunity for buyers at 10.92% in contract for $2-$3million homes and 6.31% for homes over $3 million. Accepted offers on SFR's at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- shows a much more active market. YTD units sold show continued improvement with 1002 units sold as of Sept. 1 vs. 1119 at the same time last year, or -10.46%. This an increase from -12.5% at last report. Let's see if this continues.
Condo's overall at 42.9% in contract, up over 4 percentage points since the last report. Condo's under $999 K (all but 13 of active listings) doing even better at 44.65%--- either way a strong sellers' market. Multiple offers back but often don't go over listing price or if so not much over. Average sold price of condo's in the County at $369,887 YTD vs $529,076 last year at the same time. As of August 31, accepted offers at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- also shows accelerating market activity. But YTD units sold still continuing to lose steam with 300 units sold as of Sept 1 vs. 301 last year, or essentially even. This after having had a substantial lead for most of the prior months.
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, in an article dated August 21 noted the local real estate market's improved prospects with the headline:
"Bay Area home sales hit 4-year high; median price up again"
The article quotes DataQuick president John Walsh, saying "----we continue to see the market moving gradually back toward a more normal balance of sales across all price ranges. The high end of the market finally has a pulse and that has led to a swift rise in the median sale price. It's the opposite of what we saw two years ago, when the credit crunch slammed the brakes on jumbo lending and sales of more expensive homes screeched to a halt.-------"
Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090821.aspx
More next time-----
Until then, have a happy and safe Labor Day Weekend.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hard to believe it is almost fall. Where did the summer go?
Dow Jones ended the week down just a bit over 1% after losing over 180 points on Monday and gaining back about half of that on Friday. Investors cautiously dipping their toes back into the market but watching the economic news carefully.
Here in Marin County, the City by City report, out this week shows most cities and towns trading in essentially the same range in August as they did in July. San Anselmo slipped a bit to 17.35% in contract vs. July's 23.4% while Fairfax roared ahead, accelerating from 26.67% all the way to 36.96% in contract. San Rafael and Novato still lead the County in percentage in contract with 34.44% and 49.56% respectively. Yes that is correct, nearly half the listings in Novato were in contract as of September 1!
Single Family Residences overall at 25.61% in contract, down a couple of points since the last report-- basically a balanced market. Homes in the $0-$999K price range at 37% in contract overall, much of this reflected in the previously mentioned Novato and San Rafael markets which weight the averages. Homes over $2million still an attractive opportunity for buyers at 10.92% in contract for $2-$3million homes and 6.31% for homes over $3 million. Accepted offers on SFR's at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- shows a much more active market. YTD units sold show continued improvement with 1002 units sold as of Sept. 1 vs. 1119 at the same time last year, or -10.46%. This an increase from -12.5% at last report. Let's see if this continues.
Condo's overall at 42.9% in contract, up over 4 percentage points since the last report. Condo's under $999 K (all but 13 of active listings) doing even better at 44.65%--- either way a strong sellers' market. Multiple offers back but often don't go over listing price or if so not much over. Average sold price of condo's in the County at $369,887 YTD vs $529,076 last year at the same time. As of August 31, accepted offers at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- also shows accelerating market activity. But YTD units sold still continuing to lose steam with 300 units sold as of Sept 1 vs. 301 last year, or essentially even. This after having had a substantial lead for most of the prior months.
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, in an article dated August 21 noted the local real estate market's improved prospects with the headline:
"Bay Area home sales hit 4-year high; median price up again"
The article quotes DataQuick president John Walsh, saying "----we continue to see the market moving gradually back toward a more normal balance of sales across all price ranges. The high end of the market finally has a pulse and that has led to a swift rise in the median sale price. It's the opposite of what we saw two years ago, when the credit crunch slammed the brakes on jumbo lending and sales of more expensive homes screeched to a halt.-------"
Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090821.aspx
More next time-----
Until then, have a happy and safe Labor Day Weekend.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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