Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones closed on Friday,September 18 above 9800--- a pretty good week !
LaJolla, CA-based MDA Data Quick ran the an article headed:
Bay Area August home sales and median price fall
saying that although Bay Area sales fell August compared to July, they were still 4% higher than in August of 2008, a trend they noted has now continued for 12 consecutive months. Blaming the drop on "a thinner inventory of distressed properties for sale, (and) fewer 'bargains' ", the article went on to quote MDA Data Quick President, John Walsh---- "people are still concerned about job security, and about how many foreclosures might yet hit the market. " "There are ongoing reports of mortgage delinquencies rising, yet the number of homes being foreclosed on has trended down lately. It’s bred a lot of uncertainty among the pundits and the public about how many more foreclosures are coming, when they’ll hit, and what impact they’ll have on prices.”
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090917.aspx
Here in Marin County, inventories of both single family homes (SFR) and condo's increased modestly.
Numbers of newly-listed SFR's were up considerably from last report at 140 vs. 98, while "sold" listings dropped from 89 to 51, most likely reflecting the pause from the Labor Day holiday, its anticipation and aftermath. Contingent listings doing reasonably well at 95 compared to 105 at last report. Inventory of SFR's overall at 1199 compared to last report's 1156 with percentage in contract up again to 27.69% overall and up to a very strong 40.13% for properties under $1million. In fact, the percentage in contract of every SFR price point increased with the exception of the over-$3million segment which declined from 6.31% to 4.5% on the strength of only a two listing change. Translation--- sample size too small to be statistically significant. Year-to-date (YTD) SFR units sold at 1048 compared to the same time last year when they were at 1181. Difference -11.3%, a bit more negative than last report's -10.46% figure.
Condominiums new listings at 27 compared to 32 at last report, a slight drop. Sold listings holding steady for the period at 19, pendings also at 19, and contingent's dropping from 39 to 21 perhaps reflecting the "thinner inventory of distressed properties" discussed above. Total condo listings dropped slightly from 331 to 324 and percentage in contract also dropping a bit from 42.9% to 40.43% overall and from 44.65% to 42.39% in the under-$1million segment. Still putting forth a pretty good showing.
Number of condo's sold YTD down again and now at -2% compared to a year ago at 320 vs. 327 in '08 at this time--- this after several months at the beginning of the year with a large sales lead. Condo market which was the epicenter of the REO market has cooled from its earlier frenzied pace.
Lots of talk in the real estate community of multiple offers, but with a big difference from previous markets. Even with multiples, many properties not going much (if at all) over asking price. Of course there are always exceptions for prime properties. One story had a multi-million dollar home selling at a substantial profit after only a relatively brief period of ownership. Most owners will do well not to count on this kind of "bounce" but to carefully price, prepare and present their properties using the advice of an experienced local real estate professional familiar with their market.
More next time. (also, watch for the monthly city-by-city report)
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
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