10.4.09
Hello Everyone,
Unemployment up, Dow Jones down. October 2 Wall Street Journal runs a headline on the "Marketplace" front page: "Cruel September for Car Makers" citing sales drops of of 45% for GM and 42% for Chrysler following the termination of the "Clunker" rebate program. An article in the "Money and Investing" section of the same paper announces "Tax Free Bonds Reach a 40-Year Low", goes on to cite high demand and limited supply and predicts the trend won't end anytime soon. Just below that, another article titled "Mortgage Rates Below 5%"--- the lowest since last May 28, according to the article. Fed Open Market Committee on Sep 23 announces its decision to hold interest rates at historic lows but concerns about inflation spark speculation that this party won't last forever. Everyone hedging their bets, not knowing for sure what will happen next.
What we know for sure is that there will be an economic recovery. What we don't know is the timing. Lots of talk among buyers and sellers and even among real estate professionals about a possible next wave of bank-owned property hitting the market and about whether the housing crisis that began in the sub-prime markets will bleed over into the upper end. Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity. Many investors jumping in to the real estate market along with those just looking for a home they can afford. Some still waiting on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. This may or may not materialize. As a friend of mine is fond of saying "better is the enemy of good"!
What went up and what went down:
Marin County "City-by-City" report shows out of 13 communities monitored, 8 increased their percentage in contract since last month, 4 declined, and 1 remained about the same. Sausalito, Belvedere and Tiburon offering the best opportunities right now with 14.1%,12.8%, and 11.1%, respectively, in contract.
Marin County Single Family Residences showing fairly stable percentages in contract across all price ranges with only minor changes. Inventory up slightly from 1199 at last report to 1213 units on Sept 28. With the exception of certain very desirable properties, homes in the $2million-plus range continue to offer major opportunities to well-heeled buyers. Overall YTD units sold at 1119 on Sept 29 vs. 1253 on the same date last year, or -10.62%---- another increase from last report's -11.3%, so headed in an encouraging direction.
Condo's inventory down 1 unit from 324 to 323 while 4 additional units in contract lifted the overall percentage in contract modestly from 40.43% to 41.8%. Average Days on Market for Marin Condo's at 116 and average sales price at $375,522 compared to 105 and $504,385 last year at the same time. Much of the price disparity a product of market-mix, with lots of lower-priced bank-owned properties populating the lower end of the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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