Hello Everyone,
October 16, 2009, Dow Jones closes at 9995, pulling back slightly from Thursday's 1-year high close of 10,062. Marin IJ pours cold water on the nascent flames with front page headline "Tough month for Marin real estate". The article compares September's real estate sales to those of August. A more appropriate comparison would be to September of 2008. That comparison would show activity up considerably while prices are admittedly down due to sales of bank-owned property and the sluggishness of the upper end of the market. IJ article notes "---Marin bucked an upward trend in home sales elsewhere in the Bay area". According to an October 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick information services, the average sales volume decline in the Bay Area comparing Sept 08 to Sept. 09 is 8.4%, while Marin County declined only 3.5%. The article states that the median price decline for the area was -8.8% while Marin declined only 6.5%. Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091015.aspx
NRT MarketQuest reveals the following statistics:
Single Family Residences: Accepted offers in Sept '08=143, in August '09, 207, and in Sept '09, 244. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 49% while Sept '09 at 80.8%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 149 units to this September's 143 units.
Condo's: Accepted offers in Sept '08=58, in August '09, 70, and in Sept '09, 89. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 55.2% while Sept '09 at 106%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 55 units to this September's 50 units. Sold median price of condo's at $395K in September of '09 actually up over both August '09 at $375K and Sept '08 at $325K.
These facts do not seem to warrant front page doom and gloom. Under- $1million sector of the market at a very robust 41.25% in contract for Single Family Residences and 43.71% in contract for condo's. The big question is when sales in the upper end of the market will re-ignite. This segment is mostly SFR's, as very few condo's in this price range, usually fewer than 20 units at any given time. Answer revolves around availability of "Jumbo" loans which have been scarce since the financial meltdown last year. Major opportunity still exists for all-cash buyers of high-end homes as well as those with large down-payments and exemplary credit/earnings.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see: http://www.fredanlyan.com
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