Friday, November 28, 2008

The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 11.28.2008

for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com

Hello Everyone,

A short business week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock market news on money.cnn.com headline says:
"Dow, S&P 500 in 5-day win streak"
after stocks rose again Friday, 11/28 for a fifth consecutive session of gains. Market responding to new guarantees and new infusions of cash from the federal government. Article references recent news with positive market effects--- Citigroup bailout, announcement of president-elect Obama's choice of Federal Reserve Bank president, Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and of Paul Volcker to head the economic advisory board. Article goes on to quote Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors, as saying that markets are currently very fickle to news and could sour further upon consideration of market fundamentals.
full article available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

Mortgage rates were affected favorably by the week's events. The combination of low rates and negotiable housing prices presenting a great opportunity for qualified buyers.

Single Family Residences (SFR).
The number was presented correctly in the analysis, however. Apologies for the error, which has been corrected on the current spreadsheet. Listings declined slightly from 970 to 934. 18.5% of those were in contract, making it a buyers' market overall. Listings of homes in the under-$1million range declined from 483 to 467, but the number in contract increased 1 unit, sending the percentage in contract up to 29.12%, technically a sellers' market. The upper end of the market continued to lose steam, with the $1-2 million dollar range at 8.65% in contract, $2million to $3million at 8.82%, and over $3million at 3.95% with only 3 of 76 listings in contract as of the end of the day on November 25--- huge opportunity for buyers in this range with cash to spend.

Year to date (YTD) units sold at 1457 vs 1847 at this time last year, or minus 21.1%. Average YTD list price $1,391,317, average sold price $1,287,499, average days on market 87. Last year's numbers for the similar period were: average list $1,445,172; average sold $1,364,451; average days on market 74.

Condominiums:
Condo's continue to close the YTD unit sales gap, now at 453 vs last year's figure of 467 at this time, or minus 2.99%. 11 units sold during the 7 day period ending on 11/25 vs. 6 units in the similar time frame in 2007. Average list price is $527,187, average sales price $486,255, and average DOM 106 vs. last year's average list $674,167, average sold $650,902, and average DOM 82 at this time. There were 306 active condo listings, of which 107, or 34.97 percent were in contract, making it about as close to a strong sellers' market (35% and up) as it can get without actually going over the line. Units under $1million, the preponderance of the market did actually make it into "strong sellers' " territory at 36.17% in contract. Of 10 condo units listed between $1million and $2million, none were in contract as of 11/25.

Let's watch and see what happens during the upcoming week.
Until then best wishes to all,
Fred

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