Tuesday, April 21, 2009

The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.14.2009

for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www/fredanlyan.com

Hello Everyone,

Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm

Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.

Condominiums

Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.

More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred

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