Hello Everyone,
DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service, in an article dated January 20, featured the headline
Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
(full text available at) http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110120.aspx
This wasn't exactly true in Marin County as there were a combined total of 195 SFR's and Condo's sold here during the month of December. While this represented about 14% fewer home sales than the comparable period in 2009, Days on Market (DOM) actually dropped a couple of days (from 118 to 116) and a number of local REALTORS closed out the year with a welcome but unexpected flurry of last minute sales. Now that the Holidays have ended and the New Year has arrived, we have begun to see more homes added to the available inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's. Some of these are fresh listings and some are "recycled" listings that were taken off the market at the end of 2010 and are now coming back on after a 30 day or more "rest" with the DOM counter reset to zero. As we approach the late winter and spring selling seasons, we normally expect the local housing inventory to continue to increase. This should be a welcome event for many frustrated wannabee home buyers who have been looking and looking but not finding and who are unwilling to "settle" for something that really doesn't meet their needs. While it is still too soon to tell what kind of market we will have this year, many local agents are optimistic and looking forward to at least a modest improvement in home sales for 2011.
Here's what we have seen so far:
Single Family Residence (SFR)
Overall inventory increased from 740 on January 6 to 770 on January 19 and percentage in contract increased from 27.8% to 29.8%. Homes under $1 million did even better with an increase from33.96% in contract to 36.49% while number of listed homes in that price range increased from 480 to 496. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range relatively stable at 21.38% in contract while listed units did increase by 11, to 159. Upper-end homes doing somewhat better than previously, with 9 of 44 listed units in contract as of Jan 19, or 20.45%. This compares to 17.39% at last report. Homes over $3 million also enjoying greater sales activity, with 6 of 71 homes on the market in contract (8.45% compared to 4.55% on January 6). YTD sales of SFR's as of January 19 were 38 units, compared to 51 in 2010, or down 25%, and DOM for homes sold during that period were 112, compared to the year-ago figure of 97. Average sold price at $885,616 compared to $1,233,119 in the same period a year ago. This appears to be an inauspicious start to the year but the number of sales is still very low so a "market mix" of lower-priced or less desirable homes can have an unbalancing effect on early-in-the-year statistics. In addition, we will have to remember during the first half of this year that we are comparing to 2010's skewed 1st and 2nd quarter sales resulting from the homebuyer tax credits.
Condo's
Overall inventory increased from 266 on January 6 to 271 on January 19, but the number of units in contract remained static at 94, pulling the percentage in contract down slightly from 35.34% to 34.69%. There was only one condo over $1million in contract of the 10 units on the market on January 19, or 10%, matching the level on January 6 when we last reported. YTD sales of condo's as of January 19 were 16 units, compared to 20 in 2010, or down 20%, and DOM for condo's sold during that period were 126, compared to the year-ago figure of 114. Average sold price at $321,006 compared to $334,841 in the same period a year ago. Please see remarks above under SFR's regarding these statistics which one would hope are not a harbinger of the year ahead!
Stay tuned for new developments as the year rolls out ahead of us.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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