Hello Everyone,
A December 16 article by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, quoted their president,John Walsh, who, predicting recovery, but hedging his bets on timing, said:
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” (See full text at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101216.aspx )
Here in Marin County the market is mixed, with some areas doing much better than others. Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows Greenbrae, which topped the charts last month at 46.15% in contract has extended its lead to an astonishing 60.87% in contract, representing 14 of 23 homes on the market in that area. Nothing else in the County even comes close. Novato in 2nd place at 39.76%, down just slightly from last month, a very popular market with lots of attractively priced homes as a result of REO's and short sales. Ross next at 33%, followed by San Anselmo at 29.8%. Belvedere, with its high-end homes still at the bottom of the sales heap with only 7.4% of listed homes in contract-- a fertile hunting ground for value-minded high-end home hunters.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
2010 ended with a total of 1836 sold SFR units in the County, compared to 1668 for the year 2009, hanging on to a year-over-year gain of just over 10% despite a constant erosion since last summer after the end of the buyer tax credits. Active inventory at 622 units, and months supply of inventory at 4.1 as of December 31. New listings in December were down to 110, all figures the lowest in over 24 months. There were 212 accepted offers on SFR's in December, bringing the ratio of accepted offers to existing inventory to 34.1%, and accepted offers to new listings to 192.7%, all three representing the greatest numbers in over 24 months. SFR percentage in contract down slightly overall from 28.17% to 27.14%, with the under-$1million segment down about 1.25 percentage points and the $1million to $2million segment down about 3 percentage points. Big news, though, is that the $2million-$3million segment up substantially from 7.25% in contract at the beginning of December to 17.39% on January 6. This due more to the decrease in listed homes from 69 units to 46 than to the increase of homes in contract from 5 to 8 units. Sold SFR units for December at 151. This compares to 180 in December of 2009 and only 91 in December of 2008. Inventory down, accepted offers up, months supply of inventory down.
Condo statistics reveal a similar story with months supply of inventory at 5.4, the lowest since December of '09 when it stood at 5.2. Since then, it has been as high at 10.6 (in July). The ratio of accepted offers to inventory for December was 32.8%, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings 178.4%, both the highest in over 24 months. Active inventory at 201 condo units on Dec 31. This compares to 251 in December of '09 and 272 in '08. Number of condo units sold at the end of 2010 was 477, about 5.9% less than the 505 units sold in 2009.
A number of real estate agents in the County were unusually busy during the traditionally sleepy period between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. What this means is not clear at this time. Lots of discussion and conjecture among even experienced agents, but the truth is it will probably be about 6 weeks before a trend is established and we get a better idea of how 2011 may look for real estate. As in previous recoveries, we will probably not recognize the market bottom until after we have passed it and prices are on the way up. One thing we do know is that there are plenty of good real estate bargains out there right now. Picking a market bottom is extremely difficult and those who accomplish it often owe it to luck more than to skill. For the rest of us it may just be that waiting for a better deal later could deprive us of a very good deal now.
More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http/www.fredanlyan.com
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