For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Economic news upbeat this week with the Wednesday (7/29) Wall Street Journal featuring a front page headline "Home Prices Rise Across U.S.", going on to say "Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years----" The Saturday (8/1) WSJ front page flashed a headline "U.S. Economy Pulls Out of Tailspin" above an article that begins "The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing-----" Also front page news in the "Money and Investing" section of that same edition was an article titled "Dow's Month Was the Best Since 2002" referring to the July performance of the widely-followed index. The piece began "Stocks closed out a blistering month------"
Bottom line is media are starting to pick up on the same themes we have been observing and reporting for months. Our opinion is that recovery will still take a while with more ups and downs, but the worst is probably over.
Monthly City-by-City report still shows plenty of buyers' opportunities here in Marin County, especially in higher-priced homes. Jumbo mortgages still challenging. One such sale closed last week after four months in escrow while buyer jumped through lender hoops. For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers still not giving away property but there are great deals available. Corte Madera, San Rafael and Novato have the highest percentage in contract as of 7/31, with 30.4%, 35.18%, and 48.97% in contract, respectively. Holding down the bottom rungs of the ladder are Belvedere, at 10% in contract, Tiburon at 11.7% and Mill Valley at 17.02%. These are very popular places to live and represent great opportunities.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory down 3 units from last report at 1207. Overall percentage in contract is 26.35%, which I am still calling "balanced". The under-$900k market, however, is hot, hot, hot at 37.52% in contract. Above $1million, opportunity increases in direct proportion to price with $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.1%, $2million to $2.9million at 10.57%, and above $3million at only 3.7%. According to NRT MarketQuest, figures for the month of July (as of the 29th) showed the ratio of accepted offers to new listings at over 110% meaning that homes are selling faster than new listings become available. Year to date units sold at 791 as of 7/28 vs. 923 at the same time last year, or a decrease in YTD units sold of 14.3%. This is actually an improvement over the last report when the number was -14.7%. Basic idea: Sales are still behind last year but interest seems to be increasing substantially!
Condo's in the County cooling just a bit from their earlier torrid pace with overall percentage in contract down a notch from 38% at last report to 37% on July 28. $0-$999k price range (all but 14 units) at 38.66% in contract compared to 39.62% at last report. YTD units sold at 247 as of 7/28 compared to 233 a year ago at this time or up 5.66%. This represents a continued decrease and compares to a +11.9% at last report. Condo sales, which were red-hot for the first half of the year seem to be taking a bit of a break, but remember, 38% in contract is still a strong market. Sellers need to be cautious, however, since pricing is still critical and over-priced listings will sit.
Hotsheet for the period 7/15 to 7/28 showed the flip-side of current market activity with 60 SFR and 15 Condo listings withdrawn or temporarily off the market during the period. Best recipe for success--- an experienced local REALTOR, a realistic attitude regarding current market pricing, excellent preparation and presentation and skillful marketing.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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