(for spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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