for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
7.5.2009
Hello Everyone,
A short trading week with the Dow Jones Index down over 200 points on Thursday as government reports that unemployment hit a 26 year high took a bite out of investors' confidence and put the brakes on the recent rally in equity prices. This uncertainty typically carries over into the housing market where a lack of confidence in the economy keeps many buyers in the wings. May be a good situation for contrarians with the confidence to vote their convictions with their wallets.
City-by-City report out this week shows 8 of 13 cities and towns percentage in contract down, and 5 up. Novato still leading the pack with an amazing 50.73% of MLS listings (Condo's and Single Family combined) in contract as of June 29. San Anselmo in 2nd place at 34.62%, and San Rafael a solid 3rd at 33.33%. A point of interest--- of 341 active listings in Novato, 101 were condo's, and 64 of those were in contract on June 29, a sizzling 63%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory in Marin County dropped to 1236 from 1256 at last report. Overall percentage in contract stayed about the same at 26.7%. $0-$999k price range doing best at 39.06% in contract due to relative availability of mortgage money in this segment. $1million to $1.99million homes at 16.53% in contract while $2million to $2.99million at 10.16% and $3million and up at only 7.21%--- reflecting the difficulty of getting "Jumbo" financing at this point in time. There is money out there but lenders are skittish, many requiring two independent appraisals as well as Full documentation. Lending process backed up at institutions doing these loans and taking substantially longer than was formerly the case. Individuals with cash or with large down payments in good negotiating position on higher-end homes with sellers now paying careful attention to which buyer is most likely to be successful in obtaining financing. During the month of June accepted offers on SFR's in Marin amounted to 27.7% of existing inventory and 105% of new listings (source NRT MarketQuest) , the highest in the past 24 months.
Condo's overall at 38.63% in contract on a county-wide basis with 124 of 321 MLS- listed properties in contract on June 30. There were 239 new condo listings and 88 accepted offers, or 111.4%, the highest in the past 24 months. Accepted condo offers amounted to 36.8% of total existing MLS-listed condo inventory, also a 24 month high as home buyers and investors snapped up properties at prices unheard of a year or 2 ago.
Hoping that everyone had a happy and safe 4th!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Sunday, June 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.16.2009
(for spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, June 7, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.5.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, May 23, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.19.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Hello Everyone,
Marin County Single Family Residencees as a group crossed over into what has been traditionally known as "sellers' market" territory for the first time in quite a while at 27.1% in contract. This largely on the strength of the under- $1million market which is incredibly hot at 40.25% in contract, led by Novato and San Rafael. The Marin IJ front page today (5/22) trumpeted "Marin Home Sales Increase", also noting that median price went from $935,000 last year to $743,500 in April of this year (this author did not verify these statistics). Article went on to quote "analysts" as saying "a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics", something we have been saying for months. Home sales in the higher end continue to languish while buyers and even real estate agents question when the supply of "jumbo" mortgage money will be turned back on. Conversations with loan brokers indicate that this supply is slowly coming back but is tightly controlled. Word is that jumbo money is becoming available for adjustable loans, but that 30 year fixed money is still expensive and difficult to obtain. Guidelines and ratios for loans being strictly observed by lenders. Unknown factor affecting home sales is a possible "bulge in the python" of new foreclosures after several months of moratorium recently observed by lenders. Large new supply of inventory could depress prices. Many buyers with cash in search of high-end properties getting extraordinary deals. Smart investors in a buying mode. SFR days on market to May 19, 108 vs. 87 at this time last year. 408 units sold so far this year compared to 520 in '08, or -21.5%. 1247 SFR's listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of May 19, 338 of them in contract.
326 Condo's Listed on the Marin MLS on May 19. 117, or 35.85% in contract. Traditionally regarded as a "sellers" market, just on the borderline of "strong sellers' "---- with one major difference------ sellers do not have the ability to dictate pricing. 156 Condo units sold YTD vs. 135 at this time last year, a 15.5% increase. DOM for YTD sales at 117 vs. last year's 95. Median price $363,808 vs. $574,547 last year, held down by the preponderance of low-end bank-owned properties on the market. End of foreclosure moratorium brings up same questions/concerns as with SFR's, but invoestors reportedly snapping up multiple properties as they look at what they consider to be bargain pricing.
More will be revealed---
In the meantime, a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Holiday to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Marin County Single Family Residencees as a group crossed over into what has been traditionally known as "sellers' market" territory for the first time in quite a while at 27.1% in contract. This largely on the strength of the under- $1million market which is incredibly hot at 40.25% in contract, led by Novato and San Rafael. The Marin IJ front page today (5/22) trumpeted "Marin Home Sales Increase", also noting that median price went from $935,000 last year to $743,500 in April of this year (this author did not verify these statistics). Article went on to quote "analysts" as saying "a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics", something we have been saying for months. Home sales in the higher end continue to languish while buyers and even real estate agents question when the supply of "jumbo" mortgage money will be turned back on. Conversations with loan brokers indicate that this supply is slowly coming back but is tightly controlled. Word is that jumbo money is becoming available for adjustable loans, but that 30 year fixed money is still expensive and difficult to obtain. Guidelines and ratios for loans being strictly observed by lenders. Unknown factor affecting home sales is a possible "bulge in the python" of new foreclosures after several months of moratorium recently observed by lenders. Large new supply of inventory could depress prices. Many buyers with cash in search of high-end properties getting extraordinary deals. Smart investors in a buying mode. SFR days on market to May 19, 108 vs. 87 at this time last year. 408 units sold so far this year compared to 520 in '08, or -21.5%. 1247 SFR's listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of May 19, 338 of them in contract.
326 Condo's Listed on the Marin MLS on May 19. 117, or 35.85% in contract. Traditionally regarded as a "sellers" market, just on the borderline of "strong sellers' "---- with one major difference------ sellers do not have the ability to dictate pricing. 156 Condo units sold YTD vs. 135 at this time last year, a 15.5% increase. DOM for YTD sales at 117 vs. last year's 95. Median price $363,808 vs. $574,547 last year, held down by the preponderance of low-end bank-owned properties on the market. End of foreclosure moratorium brings up same questions/concerns as with SFR's, but invoestors reportedly snapping up multiple properties as they look at what they consider to be bargain pricing.
More will be revealed---
In the meantime, a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Holiday to all,
Fred
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.9.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Whew, Feel the Heat!
City-by-City Report shows Novato at 43% in contract for single family residences (SFR) and condo's currently listed on MLS. Greenbrae follows at 35.14%, and San Rafael just a nose behind at 34.8%. Corte Madera also doing well at 30.48% in contract. Kentfield and Belvedere almost tied for last place with 7.89% and 8.93% (respectively) of listed homes in contract as of May 4.
County-wide, there are 1203 SFR's listed on MLS as of May 6, with 297, or 24.69% in contract, tantalizingly close to a "balanced" market. The under-$1million range hot at 37.58% in contract while upper-end homes still feeling the chill of restricted availability of "jumbo" mortgage money. Still time to get a piece of this cake before the heat melts the frosting---a golden opportunity that most likely will not last! $1-2million range at 13.7%, $2-3 million range at 10.74% and $3million and above at only 4.33% in contract! Average list price of SFR's sold YTD $1,017,204. Average sold price $960,035. Average Days on Market 112. YTD units sold 356, or 21% fewer than this time last year. Compares favorably with -25% at last report.
Condo's overall at 34.59% in contract, just short of a point higher than last month, but according to NRT Market Quest, accepted offers on condo's running at 107% of new listings in the month of April. Condo's that are selling are largely lower-end, with an average (YTD) list price of $350,127 and an average sold price of $338,037. Average days on market are 110. As of May 6, 138 condo's had sold YTD vs. 118 at the same time last year-- still ahead by 14% but losing a bit of steam compared to last month's +17.39%.
Dow Jones still volatile but trending up. Closed out the week on May 8 above 8500 and with a 164 point gain. People feeling hopeful again. So when the flow of jumbo mortgage money is turned back on, and it will---- bets are that the upper end will turn around.
More next time-----
Until then, Happy Mothers' Day and best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Whew, Feel the Heat!
City-by-City Report shows Novato at 43% in contract for single family residences (SFR) and condo's currently listed on MLS. Greenbrae follows at 35.14%, and San Rafael just a nose behind at 34.8%. Corte Madera also doing well at 30.48% in contract. Kentfield and Belvedere almost tied for last place with 7.89% and 8.93% (respectively) of listed homes in contract as of May 4.
County-wide, there are 1203 SFR's listed on MLS as of May 6, with 297, or 24.69% in contract, tantalizingly close to a "balanced" market. The under-$1million range hot at 37.58% in contract while upper-end homes still feeling the chill of restricted availability of "jumbo" mortgage money. Still time to get a piece of this cake before the heat melts the frosting---a golden opportunity that most likely will not last! $1-2million range at 13.7%, $2-3 million range at 10.74% and $3million and above at only 4.33% in contract! Average list price of SFR's sold YTD $1,017,204. Average sold price $960,035. Average Days on Market 112. YTD units sold 356, or 21% fewer than this time last year. Compares favorably with -25% at last report.
Condo's overall at 34.59% in contract, just short of a point higher than last month, but according to NRT Market Quest, accepted offers on condo's running at 107% of new listings in the month of April. Condo's that are selling are largely lower-end, with an average (YTD) list price of $350,127 and an average sold price of $338,037. Average days on market are 110. As of May 6, 138 condo's had sold YTD vs. 118 at the same time last year-- still ahead by 14% but losing a bit of steam compared to last month's +17.39%.
Dow Jones still volatile but trending up. Closed out the week on May 8 above 8500 and with a 164 point gain. People feeling hopeful again. So when the flow of jumbo mortgage money is turned back on, and it will---- bets are that the upper end will turn around.
More next time-----
Until then, Happy Mothers' Day and best wishes to all,
Fred
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.14.2009
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www/fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.31.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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