The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.16.12

Hello Everyone,

As of April 10, the number of Single Family Residences (SFR) listed for sale on the Marin MLS actually decreased from 868 in our March 27 report, to 854. Number of homes in contract increased from 402 to 419. The net effect of this was that percentage in contract increased again, to 49.06%--- a Strong Sellers' Market by our current criteria. Homes under $1million really through the roof (clever, yes?), with listings down to 511 from 536 on March 27, and number of homes in contract increasing during the period, from 315 to 326. Doing the math on this tells us that an incredible 63.8% of MLS-listed SFR's were in contract on April 10. We are calling this a Very Strong Sellers' Market. Sellers take note. If you are thinking of selling your home in this price range, this could be the best opportunity in years! SFR's in upper price ranges somewhat more reasonable, but the clock is ticking. $1million-$2million range at 34.68% in contract, a balanced market. $2million-$3million at 29.58% in contract, still just barely in Buyers' Market territory, and headed north. Homes in the $3million and up category nearly doubled their percentage in contract during the period, from 8.96% to 17.65% in contract, vaulting out of Very Strong Buyers' into Strong Buyers' territory. Still opportunities here for the smart money, but perhaps not for long----time will tell.

 

As of April 10, YTD sales of SFR's in the County at 489 units, compared to 418 a year ago, or up 16.9%. Average days on market (DOM) down from 141 to 133. Average sales price up slightly, to $953,153 from the year-ago figure of $936,295.

 

Market temperature  definitely rising!

 

Condominium  inventory increased by one unit, to 250, and units in contract decreased by one unit, to 142. Percentage in contract at 56.8%-- still in Very Strong Sellers' market territory, even with a 6/10 of a point drop. 140 of 238 listed condo's under $1million in contract, or 58.82%- also remaining in Very Strong Sellers' Market territory, with a 6/10 point drop. As of April 10, 146 condo units had sold, YTD, compared to 140 at the same time in 2011, or up 4.3%. This is actually a slight drop, as it iwas up 8.9% at our last report. Average DOM for sold condo units at 157, compared to 177 last year at the same time. Average sold price down somewhat, from $393,675 in April of 2011, to $342,392 on April 10. A significant percentage of this drop (probably about 50%) most likely due to changes in market mix rather than price depreciation.

 

Hotsheet statistics show 157 properties went contingent between March 28 and April 10, and 117 units sold, while only 118 new listings came on the market.  Reality from ground-level is that buyers continue to compete for good new inventory, resulting in a substantial number of multiple offers over asking price. Rule of thumb for buyers is--if you see a property you like, make an offer---. Chances are it may not be available next week.

 

More next time. Until then---

 

Best wishes to all,

 

Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com

 

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.3.12

​Hello Everyone,

City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up in 9 of the 13 cities and towns we follow, and down in only 4. Two of the decreases (Mill Valley and Larkspur) were so small that we could call those markets stable. Fairfax's decrease was due to a significant influx in new listings, and the Greenbrae figures were influenced by a swing of only 3 listings. So really, the idea of decreasing percentage in contract does not seem to be a significant factor at this time. Always popular, Corte Madera is in the lead again this time, with 26 of 38 listed properties in contract, or 68.4%. Novato and San Rafael not far behind, with 59.7% and 56.45% respectively. All three of these markets qualify as Very Strong Sellers' markets under our guidelines.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

Inventory* at 454 homes as of March 31. Compares to 954 last March 31, 1082 in 2010, and 1250 in 2009. Sellers with outdated ideas about the favorability of the market may want to take a quick look at current reality and take advantage of the unusual conditions with buyers out in droves, snapping up good inventory quickly. 171 SFR's sold in March, same as last year, and about 30 more units than the previous two years (2010 and 2009). Average sales price was down just a bit from the $1,040,000 in March of 2011, at $908K, but remember, at least half of this is attributable to market mix rather than price declines. What we are actually seeing is a lot of multiple-offer activity. Still quite a few all-cash and quick-close offers being presented, frustrating well-qualified would-be buyers who need loans. 46.31% of all MLS-listed SFR's were in contract as of March 27-- about the same percentage as at last report. Homes under $1million also held steady at 58.77% in contract, a high figure by historical standards. This indicates a Very Strong Sellers' Market by our guidelines. $1million to $1.99 million segment also holding steady at just under 32%, and we are calling it a balanced market. $2-$2.99million segment up 4 points to 27.94%, still a buyers' market, but not by much and probably not for long. Homes in the over-$3million range still waiting for the fuse to be lit and settling back a bit at 8.96% in contract, a very strong buyers' market. Buyers of high-end homes take note--- there is still an opportunity here! As of 3/27, 380 SFR's had sold, YTD compared to 350 at the same time in 2011, an 8.6% increase. At last report, this figure was up 5.7%, so continuing to increase.

Condominiums

Condo Inventory* very low, at only 106 units on 3/31-- compares to 293 in 2011 at the same time, 178 in 2010, and 176 in 2009 51 condominium units sold in March vs. 43 at the same time last year, 39 in 2010, and 42 in 2009. Average sales price down to $380,000, compared to $446K at the same time last year, $411k in 2010, and $427k in 2009. (see sales-price notes above under single family residences) 57.43% of all MLS-listed Condo's, were in contract as of March 27-- up about a point and a half from our last report. Condo's under $1million (all but 10) also increased their percentage in contract slightly to 59.41% from 57.785 last time. This qualifies as a very strong sellers' market. Those shopping for over-$1million condo's may still be in luck, as only 1 unit out of the 10 listed properties was in contract on March 27. As of 3/27, 122 condominium units had sold, YTD, compared to 112 at the same time in 2011, an 8.9% increase. Compares to 1% at last report, so a strong increase for the two-week period.

Marin County real estate market active and buyer activity high. Buyers continue to experience frustration due to lack of quality inventory. This creates a significant opportunity for sellers to enter the market. It appears that the market either has, or is just about to "turn the corner", depending on one's particular point of view. Mortgage rates still good and mortgage money now much more available than in the recent past. How the year turns out will depend on whether sellers finally decide it is time to place their homes back on the market. We will find out!

Until the next time, best wishes to all,


Fred





* Inventory figures differ between MLS and CB MarketQuest because of the way each counts listings that are in contract

​

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 3.18.12

Hello Everyone,

According to a March 15 report by San Diego, California-based DataQuick, a real estate information service, Marin County bucked  the Bay Area sales trend in February. Although sales unit volume was generally up in the nine county area (average 14.2%, Marin County 15.3%), prices were down approximately 3.6%, according to the report. The report went on to say that February was the 17th consecutive month of median sales price decreases for the 9-County region. Marin County, however, showed a median price increase of 7.6% compared to February of 2011. Only San Francisco joined Marin with an increase (5.9%).  All of the other seven counties experienced declining median prices compared to year-ago figures.  

Read the full article at:
 http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120315.aspx

According to our MLS figures, inventory continues to increase very very slowly, while percentage in contract shows consistent advances in almost every price segment.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

As of March 13, there were 830 SFR's on the MLS in the County, with 46.5% of them in contract. This compares to 42.88% at last report, two weeks ago. According to our guidelines, this segment now qualifies as a strong sellers'market. But most sellers appear not to be aware of this market shift, or just plain don't believe it. Lots of frustrated buyers out there just waiting to pounce on good-quality new inventory---- resulting in substantial numbers of multiple-offer situations. Not only that, but lots of all-cash deals where there is not a bank appraiser setting limits on purchase prices. The under-$1million price segment red hot at 58.3% in contract (302 of 518). We are calling this a very strong sellers' market. $1million to $1.99 million segment at 32.6% in contract, crossing the line from "buyers'" to "balanced" market during the last two weeks. $2million to $2.99 million segment declined very slightly, from 24.49% to 23.73% in contract-- not enough to even call a decline. Let's call it "holding steady" and recognize it as a possibly endangered species of current Marin housing bargains. Still a buyers' market, but may not stay that way for long. $3million and up segment still a bargaining opportunity in many cases, but, at 12.7% in contract, has advanced from only 9.09% at last report--- out of "very strong buyers" territory and now qualifying as "strong buyers". Buyers please take note! Year to date (YTD) SFR unit sales at 296 compared to 280 at the same time last year. This represents an increase of 5.7%. At our last report, the increase was 10.3%. This may be just a small blip in sales activity rather than a trend. At this time of year, when the numbers are still small, it does not take much to affect them one way or another.  YTD average list and sales prices also show increases. 2011 YTD average SFR list price as of March 13 was $939,697 and the average sales price was $885,096. The current figures (still March 13) are $1,042,142 and $985,873. And average days on market (DOM) declined slightly from 145 to 140. Lots of positive signs!   

Condominiums

YTD unit sales of condo's at 99, compared to the year-ago figure of 98. We have been waiting for this number to go "positive". It was -9.5% at last report, so the current figure of +1% is a very positive sign! There were 236 condominium units on the market in Marin County as of March 13. 132 of them, or 55.93% were in contract, a number that is roughly the same as our last report, but representing a strong sellers' market. In the under- $1million condo market (all but about 10 units), 57.78% of listed units are in contract, making it a very strong sellers' market. Prices of condo units not as encouraging as SFR's, with the YTD average list price at $335,000 on March 13, and the average sales price at $324,321. Compares to the year-ago figures of $370,482 and $360,331. Average DOM have come down though, from last year's (March 13) figure of 167 to the current 156. Looks to be headed in the right direction.

Marin County real estate market appears to be headed in a positive direction as we prepare to enter the second calendar quarter, and the traditionally hot spring sales period.

We do need some more sellers to get on board and list their homes so that we will have something to sell.

More next time.

Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred 

p.s. for charts and graphs please visit my website:

http://www.fredanlyan.com

  

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 3.4.2012

Hello Everyone,

City-by-City report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up, since our report last month, in 10 of the 13 cities and towns we follow. Fairfax leads the pack, with an amazing 68.75% (*) (11 of 16) of MLS-listed homes in contract as of March 1. Novato is next, at 57.55%, with San Rafael and Greenbrae nearly tied at 55+-% each. Kentfield with the lowest numbers this month, showing only 1 of 19 listed homes in contract, a little over 5%. Belvedere next, with 2 of 21 listed homes (9%) in contract.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

Coldwell Banker Market Action Report(+) shows available inventory of SFR's on February 29 at 436 units, less than half of the February inventory for the past two years. It was 858 in 2011, and 881 in 2010. February new listings at only 205 units, vs 270 in February of 2011, and 247 in 2010. Price per square foot at $424, up from $381 in 2011 but slightly less than 2010's $435. Days on Market (DOM) at 140--- an improvement from 155 last February but more than 133 days in February of 2010. 225 SFR units sold (YTD, MLS) as of 28 Feb, up about 10.3% from 2011's YTD sales of 204 units on the same date. This actually reflects a slight deceleration from our last report, when the numbers were up 27%------- a trend? or just normal fluctuation---? We will have to wait and see.

Condominiums

Condo Market Action Report (+) shows inventory at 118 units on February 29, compared to 318 last February, and 310 in 2010. Days on Market at 157, up from last year's 149, and 2010's 133. Price per square foot has been dropping and currently at $254, compared to $275 a year ago, and $331 two years back. Only 58 new condo listings came on the market in February, compared to 87 in February of 2011, and 81 in 2010. YTD sales of condo's in the County at 76 on 28 February (MLS), vs. 84 last year at the same time, a reduction of 9.5%---but, actually representing a gain since last report, when this number was down 17.5%.

Unit sales of SFR's up, but losing momentum in February, while condo unit sales were down, but gaining momentum. Not clear if this is a developing trend, but definitely worth watching. Condo buyers and sellers may want to take note.

Local REALTORS starting to speak more and more confidently about prospects for the Marin housing market. Still lots of reports of multiple offers on attractive new listings, with frustrated buyers pouncing, often with all-cash and short closes. Makes it more challenging for even well-qualified buyers who need loans-- especially if they are FHA or VA loans, although many of these buyers eventually achieve success if they are realistic and persistent. Sometimes takes several offers before getting into contract.

A couple of articles received via email this week, courtesy of Fred Nelson at the CB Greenbrae Castle, report growing confidence in the national real estate market. The International Business Times article quotes Warren Buffet as saying that single family homes are now cheap and attractive investments. Read the article at:

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/306749/20120229/real-estate-forecast-2012-warren-buffett.htm

The second article, from Bloomberg News, titled: "U.S. Housing Lays Foundation for Recovery as Buyers Coaxed Back" also paints an optimistic picture of the national real estate market. Read the full text at:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02/housing-in-u-s-lays-foundation-for-recovery-as-economy-coaxes-buyers-back.html

There seems to be more optimism among agents, analysts, and investors, than there has been in quite some time. The Bloomberg article also notes that banks are beginning, gradually, to come back on line with mortgage lending. It appears that 2012 may be a pivotal year for real estate, and the beginning of recovery.


More next time. Until then,

Best wishes to all,

Fred

• * MLS statistics

• + CB MarketQuest statistics

• MLS and MarketQuest differ in the way they count listings that are in contract, so they are not directly comparable, but are consistent with other numbers in their own database.


p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.16.12

Hello Everyone,

A February 16 article from DataQuick, the San Diego, CA-based real estate information service states: "The median price for a (Bay Area) home fell year-over-year for the 16th consecutive month, as "distressed" sales rose to the highest level since early last year---". Statistics in the article showMarin County bucked this trend, with a 4.6% increase in prices over last January's results, and sales unit volume up 9.8%. Our own  MLS year-to-date (YTD) statistics show these figures may be a bit deceiving. YTD single family 14, while unit sales increased about 27%, from 132 to 168. Condominium sales, on the other hand, are down from 2011's YTD figure of 63 units, to only 52 as of 2/14, off about 17%. This number actually represents a slight improvement from our last report , when condo unit sales were off 20%. Condo year-over-year prices also down, with average sold price at $320,237 vs. 2011's average YTD sales price of $349,992. Regarding the current statistics, article quotes DataQuick President, John Walsh as saying "This is also the time of year we caution people not to try to read too much into the statistics. The winter numbers are based on a smaller pool of buyers and they haven't proved very predictive." That may be, but the reality is that right now, Marin County SFR prices and sales are up, and condo sales and prices are down--- an important distinction and essential information for buyers and sellers. Current Marin County housing inventory continues to be extremely low. Percentage in contract on under-$1million SFR's and condo's is nearing 50%. Good new listings going into contract quickly, often in their 1st week on the market and, not infrequently, for over asking price. Lots of all-cash deals making it tougher for buyers who need loans, especially FHA or VA buyers, to land the properties they want. Advice of an experienced local REALTOR who knows your neighborhood is invaluable in this market.

Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's down from last February's 142 days to 133, while condo's about the same as last year at this time at 153 days vs. last year's 154. Sellers take note: Stale, overpriced properties that sit on the market while fresh, new, well-price listings zoom out the door skew these numbers to the high side.

Activity in local real estate offices is brisk and agents more optimistic than in quite some time, many thinking that 2012 will be the year the market starts to emerge from its slump.

Time will tell!

More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred

full text of DataQuick article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120216.aspx

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.5.12

Hello Everyone,


City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract was up in 9 of the 13 towns and cities we follow. Novato in the lead, showing 53.42% of MLS-listed homes and condo's in contract as of February 1---a strong sellers' market. Fairfax, Larkspur, and San Anselmo in a very tight race for 2nd place, all with over 46% in contract, and San Rafael not far behind, at 44.4%. Belvedere percentage in contract still in the basement, even though almost double that in our last report at 9.09%.

CB Market Action report shows continued dramatically low housing inventory in the County. (remember, these figures are lower than MLS figures becuase they do not include listings that are in contract). Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) at 431 as of Jan 31. Last year at the same time, there were 781 available homes, and in Jan of 2010, the number was 823. For Condo's, Jan 31 inventory was 123, compared to 267 last year, and 155 in Jan of 2010. Low inventory continues to frustrate buyers, who pounce upon good new inventory, making it disappear quickly, often the first week on the market. Lots of stories from real estate colleagues about listings with multiple offers selling over asking price and all-cash offers with quick closes. One gated, 1950's, Southern Marin hilltop property in original condition recently sold in the mid-$2million dollar range, all-cash, with a short close, even before it hit the MLS.

Percentage in contract for SFR's in the $1-2 million range has been moving up in recent weeks, currently a "Balanced" market at 31.17% in contract, while homes priced at $2-3 million at 20.45%---- was as low as 11% at the beginning of January. Market for homes above $3million, still very tepid, at only 9% in contract. Sales of SFR's YTD, at 117 on Jan 31, up from 91 units at the same time last year, a 28% increase. Condo's moving in the opposite direction. After ripping up the market in 2011, condo unit sales started off the year with January sales down about 20% from last year, at 35 units compared to Jan, 2011's 44 units. Average sold prices on both SFR's and condo's up, but too soon to indicate a trend due to low numbers and may just be due to specific units sold being a different "market mix". We will know more as the selling season unfolds.

A lot of talk about the upcoming Facebook Initial Public Offering of stock, and the fact that it will create hundreds of "instant millionaires". Much of this money expected to find its way into the SouthBay real estate market, making an already tight market even more competitive and expensive. Question is how much, if any, spillover will find its way to the Marin real estate market. There certainly are enough high-priced bargains from which to choose! Would be interesting! Time will tell.

More next time.

Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.22.2012

Hello Everyone,


Attached to this week's report is the Annual Marin Sales Comparison, with sales by town/city from 1965 through 2011. Average sales price decline across the County was 6.49%, however , Larkspur, San Anselmo, and Kentfield actually bucked the trend, with price increases of 1.9%, 3.16%, and 11.6%. Towns where sales prices declined ranged from a high -18.59% in Belvedere to a low of -3.05% in Ross. A separate category called "Miscellaneous Marin" showed an average decline of 19.8%.

Attached percentage-in-contract reports show inventory and percentage in contract at most price points slowly beginning to build for both Single Family Residences and Condo's--- normal for this time of year, but inventory still at very low levels.


A January 18 article from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service summed up the Bay Area real estate market for 2011, saying, in part, "The Bay Area’s housing market rounded out 2011 much the way it started it: with constricted and atypical sales activity, lots of bottom feeding, and a largely dormant mid- to move-up market. Sales were up slightly last month, while prices dropped". The article went on to quote DQ's President, John Walsh who noted that most people had put "discretionary buying and selling on hold, except at the very top of the market". Mr. Walsh was also quoted as saying that the "spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, (were) largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage". According to the article, distressed sales (REO's and short sales) in the Bay Area represented over 49%

of the Bay Area resale market in December, an increase over November, as well as the previous December. Read the full text of the article at:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx


Many local REALTORS as well as other writers and analysts seem to feel that 2012 will be a bit more upbeat than 2011, but caution that there will still be quite a bit of foreclosure and short sale activity to hold prices in check. Lending standards will continue to be tight, but for those who qualify, interest rates are expected to remain low. Price increases, if any are expected to remain low. A great time to buy for those who can qualify. Because of continued low inventory of homes for sale, also a great time for sellers to check back in if they have a realistic attitude about prices and marketing. Key factors are flexibility and a knowledgable local REALTOR who can provide reliable information about the state of the market in your specific neighborhood. Buyers are snapping up attractive, well-located, well-priced homes--- often in the first week they are listed.

More next time.


Until then, best wishes to all,



Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website, http://www.fredanlyan.com/