Hello Everyone,
We seem to be getting the lazy summer real estate market without the lazy summer weather! On Wednesday, according to one account, the weather in San Francisco was the coldest for that day since records have been kept, beginning in the late 1800's. And, reportedly, we are having the coolest summer weather in over 40 years! Nonetheless, people are still going on vacation (hopefully to warmer places) and many have placed their real estate searches or plans to sell on temporary "hold" while they are away. This is normal summer behavior. Our Marin County Market usually comes back to life in September when everyone returns to work or school, and stays fairly active until the holidays.
The Marin real estate market for the first four months of the year was incredibly hot, with buyers racing to beat the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credits, and total units sold were far ahead of 2009. As of July 20, YTD housing units sold were still substantially ahead of the same date in 2009, with condo unit sales up 10.2% (270 vs. 245) and Single Family unit sales up 34.2% (1024 vs. 763), but these percentages have been steadily eroding since the tax credits ended. A July 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, quoted their President, John Walsh, saying "The next few months should be very interesting. We're about to see how well the housing market can fly on its own. The tax credits no doubt stole some demand form the rest of this year, and soon we'll have a better sense of just how much." He went on to talk about the current lending environment and its effect on the market: "The Bay Area market is getting a boost from super-low mortgage rates and a slightly friendlier lending environment for high-end borrowers-------- But, barring new government stimulus, the housing market will be relying very heavily on improvements in the economy. A lot will depend on how many people find jobs, or stop worrying about losing the one they have."
See full text of article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100715.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR). Marin SFR inventory was just about unchanged at 1270 units vs. 1269 at last report. Overall percentage in contract continued to decline to 23.07%. At the beginning of May, it was 30.19%. The under-$1million market is still putting in the best performance at 31.23% in contract, a sellers' market, but still 2 points lower than last report and 8 points lower than the May 11 figure of 39.5%. Homes in the $1-$2million range up slightly from15.8% in contract on July 6 to 16.44% on July 20, but these were at 20.06% on May 11! Similarly, the $2-$3million range was at 9.73% in contract vs. 18.75% on May 11, and homes in the $3million-plus range at 8.18% on July 20 vs. 15.32% on May 11.
Average list price for SFR's for YTD homes sold as of July 20 was $1,108,584 vs. $1,043,949 last year, while average sold price of $1,058,324 compared to $988,149 at the same time in '09. Remember, in order for this to be an accurate gauge of the increase/decrease in home values, we would have to have sold the exact same mix of dwellings in both years, which is obviously not the case. Days on market for YTD sold properties dropped slightly from 98 in '09 to 87 as of July 20.
Condominium inventory up marginally, with 361 units listed for sale compared to 352 at last report. 29.92% of these were in contract, compared to the July 6 level of 32.10%. On May 11, 36.69% of listed condominium properties were in contract. Average list price of a Marin County Condo for YTD properties sold was $409,167 compared to $377,659 at the same time last year, and average sold price was $398,677 vs. 09's $363,577. Average Days on Market for sold properties were 106 as of July 20, compared to the year-ago figure of 101, a slight increase. Decreasing foreclosure activity a factor in year-over-year increases in selling prices for both SFR and Condo inventory, as less distressed property hits the market.
Pricing continues to be soft, except on the most desirable properties. This, combined with mortgage rates still holding at historic lows makes it a great opportunity for buyers. Buyers at the upper end of the market continue to have a rare opportunity to purchase property at very attractive rates. Sellers still not giving away Marin County real estate, but lower prices and bargain loan rates making homes affordable to many who formerly found themselves unable to buy a home here.
More next time.
Until then, enjoy the summer!
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Sunday, July 11, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.11.10
Hello Everyone,
Better minds than ours are struggling to understand what is going on with U.S. and global economic conditions and predict the future . Sometimes feels a bit like financial fortune-telling!
On June 27, Princeton Professor of economics, Nobel prize-winner, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman penned an article titled "The Third Depression" in which he speculated that we are currently entering an extended economic trough. This, he says, is due in part to misguided attempts by legislators and officials to begin to balance budgets to avoid accumulating more debt. According to Krugman, they should instead be pursuing a much more expansive economic policy to avoid further economic contraction he says is an inevitable destination on their current course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
On July 10, Nelson Schwartz, another New York Times Columnist, wrote a column for the paper titled "Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery". According to the article, major Wall Street brokerages have added about 2,000 jobs since February in anticipation of a coming economic recovery. Schwartz postulates that the recent financial successes of banks will lead the U.S. out of recession/depression and into recovery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?th&emc=th
Reality is probably that the economy is at a tipping point and can go either way depending on events and policies in the next few months. It would seem that taking money out of the system to reduce deficits may not necessarily be beneficial at this particular point in time. We will see.
Meanwhile, Wall Street had a pretty good week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best week since July of 2009, climbing about 5%. Still a long way from its former peak, but slowly heading in the right direction though still volatile and changing directions regularly. Mortgage rates still at historical lows but buyers must be well-qualified with good income, assets, and credit scores.
"But what actually happened here in Marin County?" you may be asking, drumming your fingers on the counter. So, Ok, the local facts as we see them---------
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage-in-contract of 5 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows was up, and 6 down as of July 1. Greenbrae showed no change at slightly over 31% in contract. Corte Madera, at 35.29%, still the leader even though down substantially from last month's stellar performance of 47.73% in contract. Belvedere holding the low spot on the totem pole at only 5% in contract. Remember, many of these markets are relatively small, and a swing of a few units can have a dramatic impact on the percentage in contract number.
Single Family Homes (SFR) inventory down from 1308 to 1269 since last report. Percentage in contract down just slightly from 25.08% to 24.35% overall. Homes under $1million at 33.58% in contract, down less than half a point from last report. Homes in the $1million and up segments all showing reductions as follows:
$1million-$1.999 million down from 16.02% to 15.18%
$2million-$2.999 million down from 19,83% to 17.36%
$3million and up down from 8.40% to 7.76%
This in spite of anecdotes about high-end properties starting to move. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens next!
Average sold price of SFR's YTD at $1,054,594 vs $972,521 last year at this time. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93 vs. last year's 108 at the same time. 935 SFR's had sold as of July 6, 34% more than the 697 sold as of the same date in 2009. This percentage increase has been decelerating for a number of weeks now, since the Federal mortgage tax credits ended.
Good new is that according to CB MarketQuest, SFR accepted offers in June were 30.1% of inventory, the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. The June ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 91.8%, exceeded only (in 24 months) by December's figure of 116.3%.
Marin County Condominium inventory down slightly to 352 from 368 at last report. Overall percentage in contract also down from 33.42% to 32.10%, while condo's under $1million (all but 19 of the listings) also down from 35.16% to 33.63%. Average sold price YTD at $400,476 vs $365,807 this time last year, and DOM up slightly from 114 to 117 since June of '09. YTD condo units sold as of July 6 at 252 vs. '09 figure of 231, or up 9.1%. This also shows continued deceleration from the rushing-to-get-the-tax-break peak. Condo accepted offers as a percentage of inventory at 29.5% at the end of June, the highest in the 24 month period covered by the CB MarketQuest report. Accepted offers as a percentage of new listings, at 89% were 3rd highest in the 24 month period, behind November and December of '09. Important to remember that increasing sales prices may be an indication of the specific units sold as much as of overall price levels---- a phenomenon called "market mix".
Local offices still busy, with good numbers of open escrows, even though many buyers and sellers are taking their a summer vacation break. Traditionally, the local real estate business cools off a bit this time of year, then gets another bounce after Labor Day. Anyone's guess what will happen this year-----
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Better minds than ours are struggling to understand what is going on with U.S. and global economic conditions and predict the future . Sometimes feels a bit like financial fortune-telling!
On June 27, Princeton Professor of economics, Nobel prize-winner, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman penned an article titled "The Third Depression" in which he speculated that we are currently entering an extended economic trough. This, he says, is due in part to misguided attempts by legislators and officials to begin to balance budgets to avoid accumulating more debt. According to Krugman, they should instead be pursuing a much more expansive economic policy to avoid further economic contraction he says is an inevitable destination on their current course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
On July 10, Nelson Schwartz, another New York Times Columnist, wrote a column for the paper titled "Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery". According to the article, major Wall Street brokerages have added about 2,000 jobs since February in anticipation of a coming economic recovery. Schwartz postulates that the recent financial successes of banks will lead the U.S. out of recession/depression and into recovery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?th&emc=th
Reality is probably that the economy is at a tipping point and can go either way depending on events and policies in the next few months. It would seem that taking money out of the system to reduce deficits may not necessarily be beneficial at this particular point in time. We will see.
Meanwhile, Wall Street had a pretty good week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best week since July of 2009, climbing about 5%. Still a long way from its former peak, but slowly heading in the right direction though still volatile and changing directions regularly. Mortgage rates still at historical lows but buyers must be well-qualified with good income, assets, and credit scores.
"But what actually happened here in Marin County?" you may be asking, drumming your fingers on the counter. So, Ok, the local facts as we see them---------
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage-in-contract of 5 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows was up, and 6 down as of July 1. Greenbrae showed no change at slightly over 31% in contract. Corte Madera, at 35.29%, still the leader even though down substantially from last month's stellar performance of 47.73% in contract. Belvedere holding the low spot on the totem pole at only 5% in contract. Remember, many of these markets are relatively small, and a swing of a few units can have a dramatic impact on the percentage in contract number.
Single Family Homes (SFR) inventory down from 1308 to 1269 since last report. Percentage in contract down just slightly from 25.08% to 24.35% overall. Homes under $1million at 33.58% in contract, down less than half a point from last report. Homes in the $1million and up segments all showing reductions as follows:
$1million-$1.999 million down from 16.02% to 15.18%
$2million-$2.999 million down from 19,83% to 17.36%
$3million and up down from 8.40% to 7.76%
This in spite of anecdotes about high-end properties starting to move. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens next!
Average sold price of SFR's YTD at $1,054,594 vs $972,521 last year at this time. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93 vs. last year's 108 at the same time. 935 SFR's had sold as of July 6, 34% more than the 697 sold as of the same date in 2009. This percentage increase has been decelerating for a number of weeks now, since the Federal mortgage tax credits ended.
Good new is that according to CB MarketQuest, SFR accepted offers in June were 30.1% of inventory, the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. The June ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 91.8%, exceeded only (in 24 months) by December's figure of 116.3%.
Marin County Condominium inventory down slightly to 352 from 368 at last report. Overall percentage in contract also down from 33.42% to 32.10%, while condo's under $1million (all but 19 of the listings) also down from 35.16% to 33.63%. Average sold price YTD at $400,476 vs $365,807 this time last year, and DOM up slightly from 114 to 117 since June of '09. YTD condo units sold as of July 6 at 252 vs. '09 figure of 231, or up 9.1%. This also shows continued deceleration from the rushing-to-get-the-tax-break peak. Condo accepted offers as a percentage of inventory at 29.5% at the end of June, the highest in the 24 month period covered by the CB MarketQuest report. Accepted offers as a percentage of new listings, at 89% were 3rd highest in the 24 month period, behind November and December of '09. Important to remember that increasing sales prices may be an indication of the specific units sold as much as of overall price levels---- a phenomenon called "market mix".
Local offices still busy, with good numbers of open escrows, even though many buyers and sellers are taking their a summer vacation break. Traditionally, the local real estate business cools off a bit this time of year, then gets another bounce after Labor Day. Anyone's guess what will happen this year-----
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, June 28, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 6.25.10
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones down just under 3% for the week on continuing investor jitters about jobs, the economy, the Euro---- and now another concern has surfaced. Seems that "M3", a measure of the money supply that inclues a broad range of bank accounts, cash, and other assets, has been shrinking at a rate not seen since the Depression years, raising fears of deflation. Read the full article at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html
San Diego-based real estate reporting firm MDA DataQuick, in a report dated June 17 made the following observations about the Northern California real estate market:
* Bay Area housing units sold up 11% in May compared to the same period last year.
* Units sold in May up 18% from April. This compares to a historical April/May increase of 6.9%
* Sales of higher-priced homes increasing and the low end slowing, most likely due to tax credits and greater availability of jumbo loans helping the upper end and reduced pace of foreclosures moderating lower-priced sales activity
full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100617.aspx
Here in Marin, sales activity continues to be mixed. Agents reporting some open houses extremely well-attended, while others have few visitors. Varies by town, neighborhood, price range, and specific homes. Local offices busy, with lots of new open escrows, but many deals at significant discounts from listing prices. Multiple offers more common on well-priced homes but even so, sales prices not going very far, if at all over list price in most cases. Buyers' and Sellers' best asset in this market is a professional REALTOR experienced in their specific market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Active inventory up very slightly but mostly stable at 1308 units compared to 1294 at last report. Percentage in contract down at 25.08% overall, a balanced market. The under-$1million segment also down at 33.97%--- was 40% five weeks ago. $1-2million segment down as well, while the $2-3million and $3million and up segments both show modest increases. Year-to-date (YTD) units sold (June 22) still up, with 845 SFR's sold compared to 602, up 40.3% from the same period time last year--- deceleration of recent weeks continues with this drop from last report's 42%. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93, an improvement from 110 last year at this time.
Marin County Condo's active inventory at 368 and percentage in contract at 33.42%. Both figures relatively stable with small increases from the June 8 level of 365 units and 32.88% in contract. Average DOM at 117, up 3 days from last year's 114 at this time. YTD units sold at 229, up 11.17% from the 206 units sold by this time in '09 and down from last report's 13%.
Local real estate recovery definitely seems to be in progress but still sensitive to volatility of broader economic conditions. Buyers continue to be careful, looking for value. Sellers and their agents need to be realistic, sharp, and ready to respond to the demands of the market. Pricing, preparation, presentation, market awareness, marketing ability, and willingness to respond to local market conditions are keys to success.
more next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Dow Jones down just under 3% for the week on continuing investor jitters about jobs, the economy, the Euro---- and now another concern has surfaced. Seems that "M3", a measure of the money supply that inclues a broad range of bank accounts, cash, and other assets, has been shrinking at a rate not seen since the Depression years, raising fears of deflation. Read the full article at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html
San Diego-based real estate reporting firm MDA DataQuick, in a report dated June 17 made the following observations about the Northern California real estate market:
* Bay Area housing units sold up 11% in May compared to the same period last year.
* Units sold in May up 18% from April. This compares to a historical April/May increase of 6.9%
* Sales of higher-priced homes increasing and the low end slowing, most likely due to tax credits and greater availability of jumbo loans helping the upper end and reduced pace of foreclosures moderating lower-priced sales activity
full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100617.aspx
Here in Marin, sales activity continues to be mixed. Agents reporting some open houses extremely well-attended, while others have few visitors. Varies by town, neighborhood, price range, and specific homes. Local offices busy, with lots of new open escrows, but many deals at significant discounts from listing prices. Multiple offers more common on well-priced homes but even so, sales prices not going very far, if at all over list price in most cases. Buyers' and Sellers' best asset in this market is a professional REALTOR experienced in their specific market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Active inventory up very slightly but mostly stable at 1308 units compared to 1294 at last report. Percentage in contract down at 25.08% overall, a balanced market. The under-$1million segment also down at 33.97%--- was 40% five weeks ago. $1-2million segment down as well, while the $2-3million and $3million and up segments both show modest increases. Year-to-date (YTD) units sold (June 22) still up, with 845 SFR's sold compared to 602, up 40.3% from the same period time last year--- deceleration of recent weeks continues with this drop from last report's 42%. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93, an improvement from 110 last year at this time.
Marin County Condo's active inventory at 368 and percentage in contract at 33.42%. Both figures relatively stable with small increases from the June 8 level of 365 units and 32.88% in contract. Average DOM at 117, up 3 days from last year's 114 at this time. YTD units sold at 229, up 11.17% from the 206 units sold by this time in '09 and down from last report's 13%.
Local real estate recovery definitely seems to be in progress but still sensitive to volatility of broader economic conditions. Buyers continue to be careful, looking for value. Sellers and their agents need to be realistic, sharp, and ready to respond to the demands of the market. Pricing, preparation, presentation, market awareness, marketing ability, and willingness to respond to local market conditions are keys to success.
more next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, June 12, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 6.12.10
Hello Everyone,
Bumpy week for the U.S. economy. Jobs report showed only 41,000 new real jobs
after subtracting temporary hirings of Census Workers. Stock market reacted with extreme volatility to this and continuing concerns over the possibility that troubles with the Euro may spread to other countries. In the background, the BP disaster acting as a drag on people's spirits as they wonder how bad it will get before it is under control and what it will take to clean it up.
Included in this week's report are the recently added monthly Condo and Single Family Market Action Reports. If you haven't seen them yet, take a look. Also, the monthly City-by-City report showing the percentage in contract down in ten of thirteen listed Marin County cities and towns, up in two, and one, San Rafael with no change.
Marin real estate market sending mixed signals
Single Family Residences (SFR) percentage in contract down in all categories except for a very slight increase (about half a percentage point) in the $2-$3million dollar segment. Market segment under $1million still doing well at 35% in contract but continues to be quite price sensitive. One Central Marin home last week received 3 offers and still did not get to list price. Buyers looking for value. Average sold price up a bit from this time last year at $1,059,749 vs. $948,599, and days on market (DOM) at 94, down from111 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 757 as of June 8, vs. last year's 531, an increase of 42%. Keep in mind, the figure was 46% two weeks ago, so actually represents a slight decline. Having said that, CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 100% of new listings for May. Report also shows a 5.6 month supply of inventory for SFR's, the lowest since December, when many sellers typically take their homes off the market for the Holidays. Active SFR inventory at 1,053 units at the end of May vs. last year's 1,267.
Condominiums percentage in contract down in all categories too. The under- $1million segment, representing all but a handfull of units listed for sale, hanging in there at 34.59% in contract. Little if any room for sellers to push price in this market either. Average sold price also up a bit from this time last year at $405,528 vs. $364,733. Days on market (DOM) at 117, up just a bit from 114 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 214 as of June 8, vs. last year's 189, an increase of 13%. This also represents a slight decline from the 13.3% figure in our last report so market may be losing a bit of momentum here too. CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 91.4 of new listings for May and a 5.7 month supply of inventory for Condo's, again, the best figures since December. Active Condo inventory at 285 units at the end of May vs. last year's 328.
(Note: discrepancy between figures from MLS and MarketQuest due to the difference in the way the two organizations count active listings. Figures consistent within reports)
Local real estate offices quite active with a steady stream of new open escrows. Agents and managers optimistic. In spite of all the ups and downs, the market seems to be improving. Most deals still being negotiated carefully between buyers and sellers. Buyers not throwing money at deals even in multiple offer situations. They are not inclined to do so, and the banks won't let them. Appraisal guidelines continue to be strict. Buyers are buying but again, they are buying value. Buyers and sellers alike benefit from the experience and market knowledge of local REALTORS, familiar with their specific market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Bumpy week for the U.S. economy. Jobs report showed only 41,000 new real jobs
after subtracting temporary hirings of Census Workers. Stock market reacted with extreme volatility to this and continuing concerns over the possibility that troubles with the Euro may spread to other countries. In the background, the BP disaster acting as a drag on people's spirits as they wonder how bad it will get before it is under control and what it will take to clean it up.
Included in this week's report are the recently added monthly Condo and Single Family Market Action Reports. If you haven't seen them yet, take a look. Also, the monthly City-by-City report showing the percentage in contract down in ten of thirteen listed Marin County cities and towns, up in two, and one, San Rafael with no change.
Marin real estate market sending mixed signals
Single Family Residences (SFR) percentage in contract down in all categories except for a very slight increase (about half a percentage point) in the $2-$3million dollar segment. Market segment under $1million still doing well at 35% in contract but continues to be quite price sensitive. One Central Marin home last week received 3 offers and still did not get to list price. Buyers looking for value. Average sold price up a bit from this time last year at $1,059,749 vs. $948,599, and days on market (DOM) at 94, down from111 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 757 as of June 8, vs. last year's 531, an increase of 42%. Keep in mind, the figure was 46% two weeks ago, so actually represents a slight decline. Having said that, CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 100% of new listings for May. Report also shows a 5.6 month supply of inventory for SFR's, the lowest since December, when many sellers typically take their homes off the market for the Holidays. Active SFR inventory at 1,053 units at the end of May vs. last year's 1,267.
Condominiums percentage in contract down in all categories too. The under- $1million segment, representing all but a handfull of units listed for sale, hanging in there at 34.59% in contract. Little if any room for sellers to push price in this market either. Average sold price also up a bit from this time last year at $405,528 vs. $364,733. Days on market (DOM) at 117, up just a bit from 114 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 214 as of June 8, vs. last year's 189, an increase of 13%. This also represents a slight decline from the 13.3% figure in our last report so market may be losing a bit of momentum here too. CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 91.4 of new listings for May and a 5.7 month supply of inventory for Condo's, again, the best figures since December. Active Condo inventory at 285 units at the end of May vs. last year's 328.
(Note: discrepancy between figures from MLS and MarketQuest due to the difference in the way the two organizations count active listings. Figures consistent within reports)
Local real estate offices quite active with a steady stream of new open escrows. Agents and managers optimistic. In spite of all the ups and downs, the market seems to be improving. Most deals still being negotiated carefully between buyers and sellers. Buyers not throwing money at deals even in multiple offer situations. They are not inclined to do so, and the banks won't let them. Appraisal guidelines continue to be strict. Buyers are buying but again, they are buying value. Buyers and sellers alike benefit from the experience and market knowledge of local REALTORS, familiar with their specific market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, May 30, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.28.2010
Hello Everyone,
Another rough week on Wall Street, with the Dow closing below 10,000 at one point for the first time in several months and fluctuating several hundred points during daytime trading. Investors wary of more trouble with the Euro. More talk about a possible double-dip housing recession. MSNBC, in a May 25 article, quotes Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst: "It looks like a double-dip already----- There is a very real possibility of some more decline". Read the full article at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37333160/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/
Also, read the Robert Shiller interview at
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_15/b4173013214814.htm
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in an article dated May 20 notes that Bay Area real estate sales (units sold) were about 1.9% lower in April than in the corresponding period last year but questions whether some of the decline might be attributable to sales that were pushed into May or June by tax credits. Article goes on to say "For months we've seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area." The article also notes an almost 22 percent median Bay Area home price increase from April of 2009 which the authors attribute to more high-end activity, better (but still not good) availability of "jumbo" financing, and a decline in foreclosure activity. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100520.aspx
Here in Marin County, real estate agents I have spoken with are still upbeat about the local housing market. Interest rates remain favorable. Jumbo availability has eased up a bit. Inventory is increasing slightly, following seasonal trends and showing seller willingness to participate in the current market. Buyers are out and about and making offers on desirable, well-priced homes. Local real estate offices experiencing an increase in business which may be tax stimulus induced, but we will have to wait and see. More desirable properties attracting multiple offers but pricing not racing out of control. Even multiple offers often not that far over asking price, if at all. Buyers very prudent and lenders backstopping them with stringent appraisals. Lender requests for appraisal reviews or even second appraisals not uncommon.
Overall, Marin County market conditions seem much improved from a year ago. Single Family YTD units sold at 639 as of 5.25.10, compared to 440 on the same date last year--- represents a 45% increase. Average YTD SFR list price at $1,112,706 and average sold at $1,057,652 compared to $1,010,384 and $948,226 for the same period last year. SFR days on market on a YTD basis improved from 110 in May of '09 to 96 as of 5.25.10.
Condo's up too but much less dramatic at 187 units sold by May 25 compared to last year's 165, a 13% increase. Average YTD condo prices as of 5.25.10 at $415,311 list price vs. $406,558 sold price. Compares to $372,936 list price and $359,709 sold price during the same period last year. Days on market for Condo's up slightly from 115 to 122.
Marin County housing market still extremely price-sensitive, with attractively priced and presented homes in desirable locations getting lots of action. Overpriced,poorly-presented homes often sitting for extended periods with multiple price reductions. Local professional REALTORS who know your neighborhood an invaluable source of information in the current environment.
More next time-------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
htto://www.fredanlyan.com
Another rough week on Wall Street, with the Dow closing below 10,000 at one point for the first time in several months and fluctuating several hundred points during daytime trading. Investors wary of more trouble with the Euro. More talk about a possible double-dip housing recession. MSNBC, in a May 25 article, quotes Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst: "It looks like a double-dip already----- There is a very real possibility of some more decline". Read the full article at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37333160/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/
Also, read the Robert Shiller interview at
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_15/b4173013214814.htm
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in an article dated May 20 notes that Bay Area real estate sales (units sold) were about 1.9% lower in April than in the corresponding period last year but questions whether some of the decline might be attributable to sales that were pushed into May or June by tax credits. Article goes on to say "For months we've seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area." The article also notes an almost 22 percent median Bay Area home price increase from April of 2009 which the authors attribute to more high-end activity, better (but still not good) availability of "jumbo" financing, and a decline in foreclosure activity. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100520.aspx
Here in Marin County, real estate agents I have spoken with are still upbeat about the local housing market. Interest rates remain favorable. Jumbo availability has eased up a bit. Inventory is increasing slightly, following seasonal trends and showing seller willingness to participate in the current market. Buyers are out and about and making offers on desirable, well-priced homes. Local real estate offices experiencing an increase in business which may be tax stimulus induced, but we will have to wait and see. More desirable properties attracting multiple offers but pricing not racing out of control. Even multiple offers often not that far over asking price, if at all. Buyers very prudent and lenders backstopping them with stringent appraisals. Lender requests for appraisal reviews or even second appraisals not uncommon.
Overall, Marin County market conditions seem much improved from a year ago. Single Family YTD units sold at 639 as of 5.25.10, compared to 440 on the same date last year--- represents a 45% increase. Average YTD SFR list price at $1,112,706 and average sold at $1,057,652 compared to $1,010,384 and $948,226 for the same period last year. SFR days on market on a YTD basis improved from 110 in May of '09 to 96 as of 5.25.10.
Condo's up too but much less dramatic at 187 units sold by May 25 compared to last year's 165, a 13% increase. Average YTD condo prices as of 5.25.10 at $415,311 list price vs. $406,558 sold price. Compares to $372,936 list price and $359,709 sold price during the same period last year. Days on market for Condo's up slightly from 115 to 122.
Marin County housing market still extremely price-sensitive, with attractively priced and presented homes in desirable locations getting lots of action. Overpriced,poorly-presented homes often sitting for extended periods with multiple price reductions. Local professional REALTORS who know your neighborhood an invaluable source of information in the current environment.
More next time-------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
htto://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, May 14, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.14.10
Hello Everyone,
Global stock and currency markets continue to be skittish over fears about Greek debt and the future of the Euro. Oil prices down, stock market down, dollar up. Situation could and does change minute by minute but in the long run, the trend has been positive and seems likely to continue in a positive direction.
Marin County Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory increased slightly to 1252 as of May 11, about 50 more units than at last report and in the same general ballpark as the last two years at this time. Percentage of SFR's in contract up just about a percentage point each at 30.19% overall, 39.5% for homes under $1million, and 20.06% for homes between $1million and $2million. Homes between $2million and $3million dropped about 3/4 of a point to 18.75%, while homes above $3million dropped about 1.8 points to 15.32% in contract. YTD SFR sales at 555 units vs 380 at the same time last year, or up 46%. This compares to an increase of 55% at last report indicating momentum has slowed. Whether this is temporary or a trend resulting from the end of the government homebuyer tax credits remains to be seen. Average SFR list price $1,101,894 compared to $1,009,791 at the same time last year. Average sold price $1,045,650 compared to $953,292. This is not necessarily an indication that housing prices have increased because figures represent "market mix" as well as price levels. Average days on market 100 vs. 112 in May of '09, a slight improvement.
Condominium inventory actually down slightly at 357 units vs.367 at last report. Compares to 328 in April of '09 and 412 in '08 (CB MarketQuest). YTD units sold as of 5.11.10 at 168 vs. 145 at the same time last year, an increase of 15.86%. This is up from the 10% increase indicated at our last report and may or may not signal a trend. More information on this in coming weeks. Average condo list price at $424,938 vs. $356,147 at the same time last year, while average sold price at $415,675 compared to '09's $343,811 (same "market mix" comments apply as for SFR's above). Average DOM at 124 compared to 112 in May of '09.
Marin real estate market continues to offer opportunity for buyers, with excellent prices and mortgages still available at attractive rates. Rules for qualifying stricter than in the past but those with good credit and income taking advantage of this rare opportunity to buy a Marin County home at a more affordable price than in the recent past. Local professional REALTORS familiar with buyers' area(s) of interest still the best source of information on price, location, condition, financing, etc. They see a lot of homes every week. Agents I have spoken with still feeling positive about market activity and direction in the County and see significant improvement over last year. Local market seems poised for continued gradual improvement in the coming months. Lots of excellent deals still available on upper-end properties, especially for cash buyers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Global stock and currency markets continue to be skittish over fears about Greek debt and the future of the Euro. Oil prices down, stock market down, dollar up. Situation could and does change minute by minute but in the long run, the trend has been positive and seems likely to continue in a positive direction.
Marin County Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory increased slightly to 1252 as of May 11, about 50 more units than at last report and in the same general ballpark as the last two years at this time. Percentage of SFR's in contract up just about a percentage point each at 30.19% overall, 39.5% for homes under $1million, and 20.06% for homes between $1million and $2million. Homes between $2million and $3million dropped about 3/4 of a point to 18.75%, while homes above $3million dropped about 1.8 points to 15.32% in contract. YTD SFR sales at 555 units vs 380 at the same time last year, or up 46%. This compares to an increase of 55% at last report indicating momentum has slowed. Whether this is temporary or a trend resulting from the end of the government homebuyer tax credits remains to be seen. Average SFR list price $1,101,894 compared to $1,009,791 at the same time last year. Average sold price $1,045,650 compared to $953,292. This is not necessarily an indication that housing prices have increased because figures represent "market mix" as well as price levels. Average days on market 100 vs. 112 in May of '09, a slight improvement.
Condominium inventory actually down slightly at 357 units vs.367 at last report. Compares to 328 in April of '09 and 412 in '08 (CB MarketQuest). YTD units sold as of 5.11.10 at 168 vs. 145 at the same time last year, an increase of 15.86%. This is up from the 10% increase indicated at our last report and may or may not signal a trend. More information on this in coming weeks. Average condo list price at $424,938 vs. $356,147 at the same time last year, while average sold price at $415,675 compared to '09's $343,811 (same "market mix" comments apply as for SFR's above). Average DOM at 124 compared to 112 in May of '09.
Marin real estate market continues to offer opportunity for buyers, with excellent prices and mortgages still available at attractive rates. Rules for qualifying stricter than in the past but those with good credit and income taking advantage of this rare opportunity to buy a Marin County home at a more affordable price than in the recent past. Local professional REALTORS familiar with buyers' area(s) of interest still the best source of information on price, location, condition, financing, etc. They see a lot of homes every week. Agents I have spoken with still feeling positive about market activity and direction in the County and see significant improvement over last year. Local market seems poised for continued gradual improvement in the coming months. Lots of excellent deals still available on upper-end properties, especially for cash buyers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.2.10
Hello Everyone,
Mood on the street and around town is upbeat. Most REALTORS I have spoken with believe that the Marin County real estate market is picking up. Sellers are better educated about current values and know that they have to price for the market if they want to sell. Plenty of qualified buyers competing for a limited amount of inventory make it their business to know the market and refuse to overpay. Lenders backing them up with strict appraisal guidelines, appraisal reviews, and requests for multiple appraisals so prices have to be real. Interest rates still excellent. Stock Market and consumer confidence recovering and the FED holding the line on interest rates last week with a statement that they intend to continue to do so for an extended period. "Jumbo" loans still difficult to obtain with lots of hoops for buyers to jump, vault, or squeeze themselves through. Well-qualified buyers with good income, credit, assets, reserves can qualify but the process is time-consuming. Upper end of the market continues to be sluggish as a result. Cash is king, with all-cash offers holding a decided edge over buyers who need to obtain loans, particularly on higher-priced homes.
City by City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 listed Marin cities and towns with percentage in contract up, and 6 down. No dramatic moves. Novato in first place, gaining since last month and now at 45.8% in contract. Novato real estate still very sensitive to price in spite of this due to continued REO and short-sale activity. Sausalito still at the bottom of the heap with only 17.89% in contract, but significantly better than last month's 10.2%.
Momentum in YTD units sold seems to be slowing, with SFR's still up about 55% from this period last year at 479 vs. 308. Condo YTD units sold at 143 vs. 130 last year at the same time, or up 10%. With the expiration of the Federal tax credit, remains to be seen whether the market is still strong enough (assisted by the California state tax credit) to continue on its upward course.
Signs of strength in the market include the high ratio of accepted offers to new listings in both the SFR and Condo market------ 88.5% and 95.1% respectively.
CB MarketQuest Market Action Report for April (attached) just out shows SFR's in a strong position with prices up, Days on Market down. Condo's a bit more challenging. See reports for full information.
Opportunities abound, particularly in the upper end of the market where qualified buyers continue to get great deals. Good prices and good rates will probably continue for a while, but not forever. Now is a great time to buy. Check with a professional REALTOR experienced in the specific area of interest.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Mood on the street and around town is upbeat. Most REALTORS I have spoken with believe that the Marin County real estate market is picking up. Sellers are better educated about current values and know that they have to price for the market if they want to sell. Plenty of qualified buyers competing for a limited amount of inventory make it their business to know the market and refuse to overpay. Lenders backing them up with strict appraisal guidelines, appraisal reviews, and requests for multiple appraisals so prices have to be real. Interest rates still excellent. Stock Market and consumer confidence recovering and the FED holding the line on interest rates last week with a statement that they intend to continue to do so for an extended period. "Jumbo" loans still difficult to obtain with lots of hoops for buyers to jump, vault, or squeeze themselves through. Well-qualified buyers with good income, credit, assets, reserves can qualify but the process is time-consuming. Upper end of the market continues to be sluggish as a result. Cash is king, with all-cash offers holding a decided edge over buyers who need to obtain loans, particularly on higher-priced homes.
City by City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 listed Marin cities and towns with percentage in contract up, and 6 down. No dramatic moves. Novato in first place, gaining since last month and now at 45.8% in contract. Novato real estate still very sensitive to price in spite of this due to continued REO and short-sale activity. Sausalito still at the bottom of the heap with only 17.89% in contract, but significantly better than last month's 10.2%.
Momentum in YTD units sold seems to be slowing, with SFR's still up about 55% from this period last year at 479 vs. 308. Condo YTD units sold at 143 vs. 130 last year at the same time, or up 10%. With the expiration of the Federal tax credit, remains to be seen whether the market is still strong enough (assisted by the California state tax credit) to continue on its upward course.
Signs of strength in the market include the high ratio of accepted offers to new listings in both the SFR and Condo market------ 88.5% and 95.1% respectively.
CB MarketQuest Market Action Report for April (attached) just out shows SFR's in a strong position with prices up, Days on Market down. Condo's a bit more challenging. See reports for full information.
Opportunities abound, particularly in the upper end of the market where qualified buyers continue to get great deals. Good prices and good rates will probably continue for a while, but not forever. Now is a great time to buy. Check with a professional REALTOR experienced in the specific area of interest.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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