Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up, since our report last month, in 10 of the 13 cities and towns we follow. Fairfax leads the pack, with an amazing 68.75% (*) (11 of 16) of MLS-listed homes in contract as of March 1. Novato is next, at 57.55%, with San Rafael and Greenbrae nearly tied at 55+-% each. Kentfield with the lowest numbers this month, showing only 1 of 19 listed homes in contract, a little over 5%. Belvedere next, with 2 of 21 listed homes (9%) in contract.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Coldwell Banker Market Action Report(+) shows available inventory of SFR's on February 29 at 436 units, less than half of the February inventory for the past two years. It was 858 in 2011, and 881 in 2010. February new listings at only 205 units, vs 270 in February of 2011, and 247 in 2010. Price per square foot at $424, up from $381 in 2011 but slightly less than 2010's $435. Days on Market (DOM) at 140--- an improvement from 155 last February but more than 133 days in February of 2010. 225 SFR units sold (YTD, MLS) as of 28 Feb, up about 10.3% from 2011's YTD sales of 204 units on the same date. This actually reflects a slight deceleration from our last report, when the numbers were up 27%------- a trend? or just normal fluctuation---? We will have to wait and see.
Condominiums
Condo Market Action Report (+) shows inventory at 118 units on February 29, compared to 318 last February, and 310 in 2010. Days on Market at 157, up from last year's 149, and 2010's 133. Price per square foot has been dropping and currently at $254, compared to $275 a year ago, and $331 two years back. Only 58 new condo listings came on the market in February, compared to 87 in February of 2011, and 81 in 2010. YTD sales of condo's in the County at 76 on 28 February (MLS), vs. 84 last year at the same time, a reduction of 9.5%---but, actually representing a gain since last report, when this number was down 17.5%.
Unit sales of SFR's up, but losing momentum in February, while condo unit sales were down, but gaining momentum. Not clear if this is a developing trend, but definitely worth watching. Condo buyers and sellers may want to take note.
Local REALTORS starting to speak more and more confidently about prospects for the Marin housing market. Still lots of reports of multiple offers on attractive new listings, with frustrated buyers pouncing, often with all-cash and short closes. Makes it more challenging for even well-qualified buyers who need loans-- especially if they are FHA or VA loans, although many of these buyers eventually achieve success if they are realistic and persistent. Sometimes takes several offers before getting into contract.
A couple of articles received via email this week, courtesy of Fred Nelson at the CB Greenbrae Castle, report growing confidence in the national real estate market. The International Business Times article quotes Warren Buffet as saying that single family homes are now cheap and attractive investments. Read the article at:
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/306749/20120229/real-estate-forecast-2012-warren-buffett.htm
The second article, from Bloomberg News, titled: "U.S. Housing Lays Foundation for Recovery as Buyers Coaxed Back" also paints an optimistic picture of the national real estate market. Read the full text at:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02/housing-in-u-s-lays-foundation-for-recovery-as-economy-coaxes-buyers-back.html
There seems to be more optimism among agents, analysts, and investors, than there has been in quite some time. The Bloomberg article also notes that banks are beginning, gradually, to come back on line with mortgage lending. It appears that 2012 may be a pivotal year for real estate, and the beginning of recovery.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
• * MLS statistics
• + CB MarketQuest statistics
• MLS and MarketQuest differ in the way they count listings that are in contract, so they are not directly comparable, but are consistent with other numbers in their own database.
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Thursday, February 16, 2012
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.16.12
Hello Everyone,
A February 16 article from DataQuick, the San Diego, CA-based real estate information service states: "The median price for a (Bay Area) home fell year-over-year for the 16th consecutive month, as "distressed" sales rose to the highest level since early last year---". Statistics in the article showMarin County bucked this trend, with a 4.6% increase in prices over last January's results, and sales unit volume up 9.8%. Our own MLS year-to-date (YTD) statistics show these figures may be a bit deceiving. YTD single family 14, while unit sales increased about 27%, from 132 to 168. Condominium sales, on the other hand, are down from 2011's YTD figure of 63 units, to only 52 as of 2/14, off about 17%. This number actually represents a slight improvement from our last report , when condo unit sales were off 20%. Condo year-over-year prices also down, with average sold price at $320,237 vs. 2011's average YTD sales price of $349,992. Regarding the current statistics, article quotes DataQuick President, John Walsh as saying "This is also the time of year we caution people not to try to read too much into the statistics. The winter numbers are based on a smaller pool of buyers and they haven't proved very predictive." That may be, but the reality is that right now, Marin County SFR prices and sales are up, and condo sales and prices are down--- an important distinction and essential information for buyers and sellers. Current Marin County housing inventory continues to be extremely low. Percentage in contract on under-$1million SFR's and condo's is nearing 50%. Good new listings going into contract quickly, often in their 1st week on the market and, not infrequently, for over asking price. Lots of all-cash deals making it tougher for buyers who need loans, especially FHA or VA buyers, to land the properties they want. Advice of an experienced local REALTOR who knows your neighborhood is invaluable in this market.
Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's down from last February's 142 days to 133, while condo's about the same as last year at this time at 153 days vs. last year's 154. Sellers take note: Stale, overpriced properties that sit on the market while fresh, new, well-price listings zoom out the door skew these numbers to the high side.
Activity in local real estate offices is brisk and agents more optimistic than in quite some time, many thinking that 2012 will be the year the market starts to emerge from its slump.
Time will tell!
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
full text of DataQuick article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120216.aspx
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
A February 16 article from DataQuick, the San Diego, CA-based real estate information service states: "The median price for a (Bay Area) home fell year-over-year for the 16th consecutive month, as "distressed" sales rose to the highest level since early last year---". Statistics in the article showMarin County bucked this trend, with a 4.6% increase in prices over last January's results, and sales unit volume up 9.8%. Our own MLS year-to-date (YTD) statistics show these figures may be a bit deceiving. YTD single family 14, while unit sales increased about 27%, from 132 to 168. Condominium sales, on the other hand, are down from 2011's YTD figure of 63 units, to only 52 as of 2/14, off about 17%. This number actually represents a slight improvement from our last report , when condo unit sales were off 20%. Condo year-over-year prices also down, with average sold price at $320,237 vs. 2011's average YTD sales price of $349,992. Regarding the current statistics, article quotes DataQuick President, John Walsh as saying "This is also the time of year we caution people not to try to read too much into the statistics. The winter numbers are based on a smaller pool of buyers and they haven't proved very predictive." That may be, but the reality is that right now, Marin County SFR prices and sales are up, and condo sales and prices are down--- an important distinction and essential information for buyers and sellers. Current Marin County housing inventory continues to be extremely low. Percentage in contract on under-$1million SFR's and condo's is nearing 50%. Good new listings going into contract quickly, often in their 1st week on the market and, not infrequently, for over asking price. Lots of all-cash deals making it tougher for buyers who need loans, especially FHA or VA buyers, to land the properties they want. Advice of an experienced local REALTOR who knows your neighborhood is invaluable in this market.
Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's down from last February's 142 days to 133, while condo's about the same as last year at this time at 153 days vs. last year's 154. Sellers take note: Stale, overpriced properties that sit on the market while fresh, new, well-price listings zoom out the door skew these numbers to the high side.
Activity in local real estate offices is brisk and agents more optimistic than in quite some time, many thinking that 2012 will be the year the market starts to emerge from its slump.
Time will tell!
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
full text of DataQuick article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120216.aspx
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Monday, February 6, 2012
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.5.12
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract was up in 9 of the 13 towns and cities we follow. Novato in the lead, showing 53.42% of MLS-listed homes and condo's in contract as of February 1---a strong sellers' market. Fairfax, Larkspur, and San Anselmo in a very tight race for 2nd place, all with over 46% in contract, and San Rafael not far behind, at 44.4%. Belvedere percentage in contract still in the basement, even though almost double that in our last report at 9.09%.
CB Market Action report shows continued dramatically low housing inventory in the County. (remember, these figures are lower than MLS figures becuase they do not include listings that are in contract). Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) at 431 as of Jan 31. Last year at the same time, there were 781 available homes, and in Jan of 2010, the number was 823. For Condo's, Jan 31 inventory was 123, compared to 267 last year, and 155 in Jan of 2010. Low inventory continues to frustrate buyers, who pounce upon good new inventory, making it disappear quickly, often the first week on the market. Lots of stories from real estate colleagues about listings with multiple offers selling over asking price and all-cash offers with quick closes. One gated, 1950's, Southern Marin hilltop property in original condition recently sold in the mid-$2million dollar range, all-cash, with a short close, even before it hit the MLS.
Percentage in contract for SFR's in the $1-2 million range has been moving up in recent weeks, currently a "Balanced" market at 31.17% in contract, while homes priced at $2-3 million at 20.45%---- was as low as 11% at the beginning of January. Market for homes above $3million, still very tepid, at only 9% in contract. Sales of SFR's YTD, at 117 on Jan 31, up from 91 units at the same time last year, a 28% increase. Condo's moving in the opposite direction. After ripping up the market in 2011, condo unit sales started off the year with January sales down about 20% from last year, at 35 units compared to Jan, 2011's 44 units. Average sold prices on both SFR's and condo's up, but too soon to indicate a trend due to low numbers and may just be due to specific units sold being a different "market mix". We will know more as the selling season unfolds.
A lot of talk about the upcoming Facebook Initial Public Offering of stock, and the fact that it will create hundreds of "instant millionaires". Much of this money expected to find its way into the SouthBay real estate market, making an already tight market even more competitive and expensive. Question is how much, if any, spillover will find its way to the Marin real estate market. There certainly are enough high-priced bargains from which to choose! Would be interesting! Time will tell.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract was up in 9 of the 13 towns and cities we follow. Novato in the lead, showing 53.42% of MLS-listed homes and condo's in contract as of February 1---a strong sellers' market. Fairfax, Larkspur, and San Anselmo in a very tight race for 2nd place, all with over 46% in contract, and San Rafael not far behind, at 44.4%. Belvedere percentage in contract still in the basement, even though almost double that in our last report at 9.09%.
CB Market Action report shows continued dramatically low housing inventory in the County. (remember, these figures are lower than MLS figures becuase they do not include listings that are in contract). Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) at 431 as of Jan 31. Last year at the same time, there were 781 available homes, and in Jan of 2010, the number was 823. For Condo's, Jan 31 inventory was 123, compared to 267 last year, and 155 in Jan of 2010. Low inventory continues to frustrate buyers, who pounce upon good new inventory, making it disappear quickly, often the first week on the market. Lots of stories from real estate colleagues about listings with multiple offers selling over asking price and all-cash offers with quick closes. One gated, 1950's, Southern Marin hilltop property in original condition recently sold in the mid-$2million dollar range, all-cash, with a short close, even before it hit the MLS.
Percentage in contract for SFR's in the $1-2 million range has been moving up in recent weeks, currently a "Balanced" market at 31.17% in contract, while homes priced at $2-3 million at 20.45%---- was as low as 11% at the beginning of January. Market for homes above $3million, still very tepid, at only 9% in contract. Sales of SFR's YTD, at 117 on Jan 31, up from 91 units at the same time last year, a 28% increase. Condo's moving in the opposite direction. After ripping up the market in 2011, condo unit sales started off the year with January sales down about 20% from last year, at 35 units compared to Jan, 2011's 44 units. Average sold prices on both SFR's and condo's up, but too soon to indicate a trend due to low numbers and may just be due to specific units sold being a different "market mix". We will know more as the selling season unfolds.
A lot of talk about the upcoming Facebook Initial Public Offering of stock, and the fact that it will create hundreds of "instant millionaires". Much of this money expected to find its way into the SouthBay real estate market, making an already tight market even more competitive and expensive. Question is how much, if any, spillover will find its way to the Marin real estate market. There certainly are enough high-priced bargains from which to choose! Would be interesting! Time will tell.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Monday, January 23, 2012
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.22.2012
Hello Everyone,
Attached to this week's report is the Annual Marin Sales Comparison, with sales by town/city from 1965 through 2011. Average sales price decline across the County was 6.49%, however , Larkspur, San Anselmo, and Kentfield actually bucked the trend, with price increases of 1.9%, 3.16%, and 11.6%. Towns where sales prices declined ranged from a high -18.59% in Belvedere to a low of -3.05% in Ross. A separate category called "Miscellaneous Marin" showed an average decline of 19.8%.
Attached percentage-in-contract reports show inventory and percentage in contract at most price points slowly beginning to build for both Single Family Residences and Condo's--- normal for this time of year, but inventory still at very low levels.
A January 18 article from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service summed up the Bay Area real estate market for 2011, saying, in part, "The Bay Area’s housing market rounded out 2011 much the way it started it: with constricted and atypical sales activity, lots of bottom feeding, and a largely dormant mid- to move-up market. Sales were up slightly last month, while prices dropped". The article went on to quote DQ's President, John Walsh who noted that most people had put "discretionary buying and selling on hold, except at the very top of the market". Mr. Walsh was also quoted as saying that the "spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, (were) largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage". According to the article, distressed sales (REO's and short sales) in the Bay Area represented over 49%
of the Bay Area resale market in December, an increase over November, as well as the previous December. Read the full text of the article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx
Many local REALTORS as well as other writers and analysts seem to feel that 2012 will be a bit more upbeat than 2011, but caution that there will still be quite a bit of foreclosure and short sale activity to hold prices in check. Lending standards will continue to be tight, but for those who qualify, interest rates are expected to remain low. Price increases, if any are expected to remain low. A great time to buy for those who can qualify. Because of continued low inventory of homes for sale, also a great time for sellers to check back in if they have a realistic attitude about prices and marketing. Key factors are flexibility and a knowledgable local REALTOR who can provide reliable information about the state of the market in your specific neighborhood. Buyers are snapping up attractive, well-located, well-priced homes--- often in the first week they are listed.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website, http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Attached to this week's report is the Annual Marin Sales Comparison, with sales by town/city from 1965 through 2011. Average sales price decline across the County was 6.49%, however , Larkspur, San Anselmo, and Kentfield actually bucked the trend, with price increases of 1.9%, 3.16%, and 11.6%. Towns where sales prices declined ranged from a high -18.59% in Belvedere to a low of -3.05% in Ross. A separate category called "Miscellaneous Marin" showed an average decline of 19.8%.
Attached percentage-in-contract reports show inventory and percentage in contract at most price points slowly beginning to build for both Single Family Residences and Condo's--- normal for this time of year, but inventory still at very low levels.
A January 18 article from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service summed up the Bay Area real estate market for 2011, saying, in part, "The Bay Area’s housing market rounded out 2011 much the way it started it: with constricted and atypical sales activity, lots of bottom feeding, and a largely dormant mid- to move-up market. Sales were up slightly last month, while prices dropped". The article went on to quote DQ's President, John Walsh who noted that most people had put "discretionary buying and selling on hold, except at the very top of the market". Mr. Walsh was also quoted as saying that the "spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, (were) largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage". According to the article, distressed sales (REO's and short sales) in the Bay Area represented over 49%
of the Bay Area resale market in December, an increase over November, as well as the previous December. Read the full text of the article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx
Many local REALTORS as well as other writers and analysts seem to feel that 2012 will be a bit more upbeat than 2011, but caution that there will still be quite a bit of foreclosure and short sale activity to hold prices in check. Lending standards will continue to be tight, but for those who qualify, interest rates are expected to remain low. Price increases, if any are expected to remain low. A great time to buy for those who can qualify. Because of continued low inventory of homes for sale, also a great time for sellers to check back in if they have a realistic attitude about prices and marketing. Key factors are flexibility and a knowledgable local REALTOR who can provide reliable information about the state of the market in your specific neighborhood. Buyers are snapping up attractive, well-located, well-priced homes--- often in the first week they are listed.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website, http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.8.12
Hello Everyone,
Welcome to a brand new year! May it be the best one yet, but only the first of many great ones to come!
Attached Market Action Reports show Marin County housing inventory closed out 2011 at the lowest levels in the entire 36 month period covered, creating continued competition among buyers for desirable new listings. Single Family Residences (SFR) at 412 units and a 3.1 month supply of inventory (MSI) at the end of December. This compares to 760 units and 5 month MSI last December, and 810 units and 4.7 month MSI in Dec 2009. The Condo Market Action Report reveals a similar story, closing out 2011 with only 138 units and a 2.2 month MSI, compared to 287 units and an MSI of 6.7 in 2010, and 259 units with 4.8 MSI in Dec 2009. New listings also lowest in 36 months, with SFR's at 70 and condo's at only 34. (Market Action Report numbers for inventory do not include current listings that are in contract, so differ from MLS statistics, where they are included).
Sales of SFR's closed out the year at 1912 units, with an average price of $991,907, compared to the year-ago figure of 1844 units and sale price of $1,034,191. Unit sales up 3.6%, and average sales price down 4.7%. Condo sales at 583 units vs. 479 in 2010, up 21.7% with average sales price at $370,298 vs. $400,313 in 2010, down 7.7%. Remember, most analysts attribute about half of average price decline to loss of value, with the other half attributable to market mix.
Local real estate market normally starts to perk up in February and March. With the national and local economies appearing to be on a positive trend , we are looking for continuing improvement. Price increases expected to be limited by continuing supply of distressed properties --- short sales and REO's, as well as cautious buyers, lenders, and appraisers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Welcome to a brand new year! May it be the best one yet, but only the first of many great ones to come!
Attached Market Action Reports show Marin County housing inventory closed out 2011 at the lowest levels in the entire 36 month period covered, creating continued competition among buyers for desirable new listings. Single Family Residences (SFR) at 412 units and a 3.1 month supply of inventory (MSI) at the end of December. This compares to 760 units and 5 month MSI last December, and 810 units and 4.7 month MSI in Dec 2009. The Condo Market Action Report reveals a similar story, closing out 2011 with only 138 units and a 2.2 month MSI, compared to 287 units and an MSI of 6.7 in 2010, and 259 units with 4.8 MSI in Dec 2009. New listings also lowest in 36 months, with SFR's at 70 and condo's at only 34. (Market Action Report numbers for inventory do not include current listings that are in contract, so differ from MLS statistics, where they are included).
Sales of SFR's closed out the year at 1912 units, with an average price of $991,907, compared to the year-ago figure of 1844 units and sale price of $1,034,191. Unit sales up 3.6%, and average sales price down 4.7%. Condo sales at 583 units vs. 479 in 2010, up 21.7% with average sales price at $370,298 vs. $400,313 in 2010, down 7.7%. Remember, most analysts attribute about half of average price decline to loss of value, with the other half attributable to market mix.
Local real estate market normally starts to perk up in February and March. With the national and local economies appearing to be on a positive trend , we are looking for continuing improvement. Price increases expected to be limited by continuing supply of distressed properties --- short sales and REO's, as well as cautious buyers, lenders, and appraisers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Monday, December 19, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.18.11
Hello Everyone,
We are still in a very active real estate market, even though we have entered the traditionally slower holiday season. A snapshot of our current market might read something like this: "Inventory low; percentage in contract, relatively high; prices down from the same time last year, but up slightly from October. Frustrated buyers snapping up good new listings as soon as they come on the market."
A December 14 report from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service confirms the above characterization of the market, and adds that distressed properties continued to make up about 47% of all home sales in the Bay Area in November, a number it says is up slightly from 45.2% in October, and 46.7% a year ago. According to the article, investors purchased over 22% of Bay Area real estate in November, and over 27% of all sales appeared to have been for cash. For some time, we have been noting this trend among investors and we think it is worth repeating. Read the full text of the article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111214.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending December 13, there were 795 single family homes listed on the Marin MLS. 303 of them, or 38.11% were in contract. In the under-$1million range, it was 48.25%;
$1million to $2million, 26.32%; $2million to $3million, 14%; and $3million-up at 9.52%. Of these, only the $2-3million range constituted a drop---- it was 17.86% at last report. But with only 50 listings in the segment, 2 or 3 homes can make this kind of difference so probably not statistically significant. What is significant is that homes in the over-$2million range still represent an incredible value for those who want and can afford them. YTD SFR's sold as of 12.13.11 at 1816 vs. 1744 the same time last year, an increase of 4.1%. Days on Market (DOM) at 114 vs. 111 last year, and average sold price at $996,650 compared to $1,031,860 at the same time in 2010.
Condo's
On December 13, there were 266 condominiums listed on MLS in Marin County, and 123 of them, or 46.24% were in contract. Even though that represents a 3 point drop from last report, it is an impressively high number. In the under-$1million segment (all but 9 units), the percentage in contract was 47.47%. For condo's over 1 million, only 1 of 9 listed units was in contract, or 11%. YTD condo sales as of 12.13 were 547, compared to the year-ago figure of 454, representing an increase of 20%. DOM were up from 138 last year at this time, to 145, and average sold price was $374, 475, down from the comparable 2010 figure of $396,894. Some buyers have been getting very good deals on condo's that they would not have been able to afford just a few years ago. They are taking advantage of this window of opportunity to get a foothold in the Marin County real estate market. Some of these units are in attractive developments and require only cosmetic repairs. Rewards in this market are going to those who recognize value and are willing to act.
More next time. Until then, wishing you all the best for the Holidays and the New Year ahead,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
The next report will be in January
We are still in a very active real estate market, even though we have entered the traditionally slower holiday season. A snapshot of our current market might read something like this: "Inventory low; percentage in contract, relatively high; prices down from the same time last year, but up slightly from October. Frustrated buyers snapping up good new listings as soon as they come on the market."
A December 14 report from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service confirms the above characterization of the market, and adds that distressed properties continued to make up about 47% of all home sales in the Bay Area in November, a number it says is up slightly from 45.2% in October, and 46.7% a year ago. According to the article, investors purchased over 22% of Bay Area real estate in November, and over 27% of all sales appeared to have been for cash. For some time, we have been noting this trend among investors and we think it is worth repeating. Read the full text of the article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111214.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending December 13, there were 795 single family homes listed on the Marin MLS. 303 of them, or 38.11% were in contract. In the under-$1million range, it was 48.25%;
$1million to $2million, 26.32%; $2million to $3million, 14%; and $3million-up at 9.52%. Of these, only the $2-3million range constituted a drop---- it was 17.86% at last report. But with only 50 listings in the segment, 2 or 3 homes can make this kind of difference so probably not statistically significant. What is significant is that homes in the over-$2million range still represent an incredible value for those who want and can afford them. YTD SFR's sold as of 12.13.11 at 1816 vs. 1744 the same time last year, an increase of 4.1%. Days on Market (DOM) at 114 vs. 111 last year, and average sold price at $996,650 compared to $1,031,860 at the same time in 2010.
Condo's
On December 13, there were 266 condominiums listed on MLS in Marin County, and 123 of them, or 46.24% were in contract. Even though that represents a 3 point drop from last report, it is an impressively high number. In the under-$1million segment (all but 9 units), the percentage in contract was 47.47%. For condo's over 1 million, only 1 of 9 listed units was in contract, or 11%. YTD condo sales as of 12.13 were 547, compared to the year-ago figure of 454, representing an increase of 20%. DOM were up from 138 last year at this time, to 145, and average sold price was $374, 475, down from the comparable 2010 figure of $396,894. Some buyers have been getting very good deals on condo's that they would not have been able to afford just a few years ago. They are taking advantage of this window of opportunity to get a foothold in the Marin County real estate market. Some of these units are in attractive developments and require only cosmetic repairs. Rewards in this market are going to those who recognize value and are willing to act.
More next time. Until then, wishing you all the best for the Holidays and the New Year ahead,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
The next report will be in January
Monday, December 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.4.11
Hello Everyone,
Something is afoot! Or is it? Hard to tell anymore. Here's the evidence. You can decide for yourselves!
Tons of open escrows. Tons of closed escrows too. Low inventory of homes for sale. Much lower than last November or November of 2009.
City-by-City Report, out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 towns and cities covered increased, 2 remained virtually unchanged, and 3 decreased. Novato on top again, extending its lead, with 51.98% of listed units in contract on December 1. San Anselmo close behind at 50%, and Greenbrae third at 45%. Belvedere holding down the floor, with only 1 of 27 listed homes in contract, or 3.7%. Buyers with cash and a desire to live in Belvedere might do well to grab a local REALTOR and go shopping.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
SFR's overall at 36% in contract, up from 33% at last report. Homes under $1million up again, at 44.7% in contract compared to 42.4% last time. Homes in the $1million-$2million range also showed gains, going from 22% to 26.3% in contract over the two week period. $2million-$3million dollar range still struggling, and down over 2 points at 17.8% from last report's 20%. Still an improvement from several weeks ago when it was in the 12-16% range. Homes in the $3million and up range at 8.22% in contract, up modestly from 5.06% at last report. Units sold, YTD, at 1752, up 5.1% from this time last year (1667), but average SFR sold price at $997,404 compared to $1,039,445 a year ago. About half of that estimated to be price attrition, with the other half attributable to market mix. Average Days on Market for sold listings at 114, only slightly more than the year-ago figure of 111. Market Action Report, also out this week shows SFR Months Supply of Inventory in the County at 3.5 months- a very low number that compares to a bit over 6 months in each of the last two years. Inventory of homes for sale at 521 on 11.30.11 (vs. over 900 in November of 2010 per CB MarketQuest) also the lowest in over 24 months covered by the charts (inventory numbers on attached reports don't always directly compare to each other due to different methods of classifying homes in varying stages of the sales process).
Condominiums
Condo's overall at 49.66% in contract as of November 29, with condo's priced at under $1million hitting 50.53%. Year-to-date, 509 Condo units had sold as of Nov 29, compared to 437 a year ago, representing a 16.5% increase. Average sold price of $375,462 compares to the 2010 YTD figure of $400,231, while average DOM for sold listings was at 146 on Nov 29, compared to 136 at the same time last year. MSI for condo's even lower than for SFR's, at a 3.1 months. Compares to 7.1 last November, and 6.1 in Nov of 2009. (Please see notes above, under Single Family Residences, as they also apply to condo statistics)
Global economic turmoil continues to keep buyers on edge. Dramatic stock market fluctuations follow daily news of Euro crisis. One day's euphoria and market run-up quickly displaced by dysphoric programmed selling a day or so later. Fortunately the effect on our real estate market is largely peripheral. Regular folks are buying homes to live in and are getting great deals. A lot of people seem to be tired of living in the shadow of what might happen to the economy and are getting on with their lives. Quality homes placed on the market at reasonable prices are selling quickly and not infrequently with multiple offers. Want to know what your home is worth? Call a local REALTOR who knows your market.
More next time.
Until then, best Holiday wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Something is afoot! Or is it? Hard to tell anymore. Here's the evidence. You can decide for yourselves!
Tons of open escrows. Tons of closed escrows too. Low inventory of homes for sale. Much lower than last November or November of 2009.
City-by-City Report, out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 towns and cities covered increased, 2 remained virtually unchanged, and 3 decreased. Novato on top again, extending its lead, with 51.98% of listed units in contract on December 1. San Anselmo close behind at 50%, and Greenbrae third at 45%. Belvedere holding down the floor, with only 1 of 27 listed homes in contract, or 3.7%. Buyers with cash and a desire to live in Belvedere might do well to grab a local REALTOR and go shopping.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
SFR's overall at 36% in contract, up from 33% at last report. Homes under $1million up again, at 44.7% in contract compared to 42.4% last time. Homes in the $1million-$2million range also showed gains, going from 22% to 26.3% in contract over the two week period. $2million-$3million dollar range still struggling, and down over 2 points at 17.8% from last report's 20%. Still an improvement from several weeks ago when it was in the 12-16% range. Homes in the $3million and up range at 8.22% in contract, up modestly from 5.06% at last report. Units sold, YTD, at 1752, up 5.1% from this time last year (1667), but average SFR sold price at $997,404 compared to $1,039,445 a year ago. About half of that estimated to be price attrition, with the other half attributable to market mix. Average Days on Market for sold listings at 114, only slightly more than the year-ago figure of 111. Market Action Report, also out this week shows SFR Months Supply of Inventory in the County at 3.5 months- a very low number that compares to a bit over 6 months in each of the last two years. Inventory of homes for sale at 521 on 11.30.11 (vs. over 900 in November of 2010 per CB MarketQuest) also the lowest in over 24 months covered by the charts (inventory numbers on attached reports don't always directly compare to each other due to different methods of classifying homes in varying stages of the sales process).
Condominiums
Condo's overall at 49.66% in contract as of November 29, with condo's priced at under $1million hitting 50.53%. Year-to-date, 509 Condo units had sold as of Nov 29, compared to 437 a year ago, representing a 16.5% increase. Average sold price of $375,462 compares to the 2010 YTD figure of $400,231, while average DOM for sold listings was at 146 on Nov 29, compared to 136 at the same time last year. MSI for condo's even lower than for SFR's, at a 3.1 months. Compares to 7.1 last November, and 6.1 in Nov of 2009. (Please see notes above, under Single Family Residences, as they also apply to condo statistics)
Global economic turmoil continues to keep buyers on edge. Dramatic stock market fluctuations follow daily news of Euro crisis. One day's euphoria and market run-up quickly displaced by dysphoric programmed selling a day or so later. Fortunately the effect on our real estate market is largely peripheral. Regular folks are buying homes to live in and are getting great deals. A lot of people seem to be tired of living in the shadow of what might happen to the economy and are getting on with their lives. Quality homes placed on the market at reasonable prices are selling quickly and not infrequently with multiple offers. Want to know what your home is worth? Call a local REALTOR who knows your market.
More next time.
Until then, best Holiday wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/
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