for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Whew, Feel the Heat!
City-by-City Report shows Novato at 43% in contract for single family residences (SFR) and condo's currently listed on MLS. Greenbrae follows at 35.14%, and San Rafael just a nose behind at 34.8%. Corte Madera also doing well at 30.48% in contract. Kentfield and Belvedere almost tied for last place with 7.89% and 8.93% (respectively) of listed homes in contract as of May 4.
County-wide, there are 1203 SFR's listed on MLS as of May 6, with 297, or 24.69% in contract, tantalizingly close to a "balanced" market. The under-$1million range hot at 37.58% in contract while upper-end homes still feeling the chill of restricted availability of "jumbo" mortgage money. Still time to get a piece of this cake before the heat melts the frosting---a golden opportunity that most likely will not last! $1-2million range at 13.7%, $2-3 million range at 10.74% and $3million and above at only 4.33% in contract! Average list price of SFR's sold YTD $1,017,204. Average sold price $960,035. Average Days on Market 112. YTD units sold 356, or 21% fewer than this time last year. Compares favorably with -25% at last report.
Condo's overall at 34.59% in contract, just short of a point higher than last month, but according to NRT Market Quest, accepted offers on condo's running at 107% of new listings in the month of April. Condo's that are selling are largely lower-end, with an average (YTD) list price of $350,127 and an average sold price of $338,037. Average days on market are 110. As of May 6, 138 condo's had sold YTD vs. 118 at the same time last year-- still ahead by 14% but losing a bit of steam compared to last month's +17.39%.
Dow Jones still volatile but trending up. Closed out the week on May 8 above 8500 and with a 164 point gain. People feeling hopeful again. So when the flow of jumbo mortgage money is turned back on, and it will---- bets are that the upper end will turn around.
More next time-----
Until then, Happy Mothers' Day and best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.14.2009
for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www/fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones ended the week above 8100 with a rally on Friday, 4/17, but market seems to keep coming back to test for new lows. All this has investors cautious and average people in a save-don't-spend frame of mind. Psychological factors nearly as significant as the "actual" facts because people do not feel they have certainty about the value of their investments or their future earning power. Here in Marin County, the IJ reports unemployment above 7%. These official figures almost always under-count by leaving out the underemployed as well as discouraged workers who have run out of umemployment benefits and given up looking. Interesting article in money.cnn.com titled Tracking the Bear:How Bad Could it Get? definitely worth reading. See it at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/magazines/fortune/bear_market_experts.fortune/index.htm
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending 4/14/09, inventory up with 1099 SFR's on the market and 22.38% of them in contract. This up from 20.17% two weeks ago. Still technically a buyers' market overall but the under-$1million segment continues to heat up with 184 of 568 listed homes in contract, or 32.39%. With the exception of the $2million to $3million price range, (down a point but insignificant to to small sample size) all other SFR price ranges increased percentage in contract. Number of SFR units sold year-to-date (YTD) at 259 vs. 339 last year at this time last year or -25.6%. This an improvement over the -27% figure at last report. Prices of homes sold continue to be much lower than last year due to more lower-end homes selling. Reason is larger "jumbo" loans to finance more expensive homes now much more difficult to get and many would-be sellers of more expensive homes simply waiting out the market. Great time to bargain for that formerly out-of-reach dream home.
Condominiums
Condo's continue to increase percentage in contract their with 109 out of 322 (or 33.85%) of Condo's on the MLS in Marin County in escrow as of April 14. YTD units sold at 108 vs. 92 at this time last year, or up 17.39%---losing a bit of momentum compared to the +25% figure at last report. Condo pricing very favorable right now, especially in northern areas of the County where there is a lot of REO (bank-owned properties) activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.31.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Friday, April 3, an exuberant Dow closes above 8,000 for the 1st time since February 9.
April 3 Wall Street Journal says "The Dow Industrials are up 20% in the past four calendar weeks--------------- the strongest four-week gain since 1938". Other sources note this is the 1st time the market has gained in 4 straight weeks since Sept./Oct., 2007.
CNNMoney.com, in an article titled "Signs of life in California real estate" says
"-------there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking."
Full text available at:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm
Here in Marin, San Rafael and Novato continue to lead the County in units sold, both increasing their percentages in contract ( to 28.9% and 37.3%, respectively) since last month's report. Greenbrae, which was on the bottom rung of the sales ladder last month now has 7 of 32 listed properties, or 21.8%, in contract. Ross now taking its turn, playing catch-up with 0 of 19 listed properties in contract as of March 31. A great opportunity for qualified buyers to get into the sought-after Ross market. Kentfield and Tiburon, both around 8% in contract also represent attractive opportunities for buyers. Lack of activity a result of difficuty in getting Jumbo loans. The money is out there, but there are plenty of lender "hoops" to jump through first. A wide-ranging March 19 article by LaJolla-based Data Quick explains -----
"The difficulties potential high-end buyers have had in obtaining jumbo loans helps explain why sales of existing single-family houses fell to record-low or near-record-low levels for a February in some higher-end communities. They included Orinda, Walnut Creek, San Rafael, San Francisco, Burlingame, San Mateo, Los Gatos, and Los Altos.
'A lot of Bay Area activity is basically on hold, waiting for the jumbo mortgage spigot to reopen. That could start to happen during the second quarter, although slowly. Yesterday’s move by the Federal Reserve to buy more mortgage securities could be a turning point,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.' "
Full text of the DQ article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory and percentage in contract numbers up in all price points. In spite of this, homes from $1million to $3-plus million continue as "Strong Buyers'" markets with between 5.8% and 13.25% in contract as of March 31. Year-to-date SFR units sold at 220 on March 31 vs. 281 in '08, a decrease of 27%. This an improvement from -30% at our last report. Days on market (DOM) at 114 vs. last year's 98 at the same time. The average selling price of $951,153 does not compare directly to last year's 1st quarter average of $1,321,868 since the market inventory that is selling is on the lower end of the price scale.
Condominium inventory up slightly and percentage in contract about the same as on March 17. YTD units sold a smoking 25% ahead of this time last year, or 94 units vs. 08's 1st Qtr. tally of 75. Days on market at 106, up slightly from last year's comparable figure of 98. Average sold price for condo's sold in the first quarter at $325,636 against the '08 figure of $592,999, representing at least as much influence of "market mix" as of depreciating value.
Positive signs in the Marin County real estate market . Well-attended open houses. Homes receiving offers and going into contract. Upbeat mood of agents and buyers. Best bet for buyers and sellers right now------an experienced local real estate professional who knows the market. Agents are out on the street every week, viewing and comparing homes, talking to each other, exchanging information, and making deals. Let their experience work for you!
More next time------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, March 22, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 3.20.2009
for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
3.20.2009
Hello Everyone,
Better economic news this week:
From CNNMoney.com,
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks managed gains for the second week in a row despite tumbling Friday, as investors pulled back after the recent run.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 122 points or 1.7%. However, it also managed slim gains for the week, rising for the second week in a row for the first time since last May. Full story at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
March 20 Wall Street Journal headline Informs "Under 5% Mortgages Are Likely At the Bottom", saying "The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed."
Here in the Marin County housing market, both inventory and activity are up, with exuberance of spring buoying spirits and tempting both buyers and sellers.
Single Family Residences (SFR): Inventory at 956 homes, 193 in contract, or 20.19, about a 1 point increase over two weeks ago. Still a "buyers' " market overall but mostly due to continued sluggishness in the upper end. Listings above $1million at between 5% and 12% in contract continue to be attractive buying opportunities for those flush with cash or with excellent credit and sufficient down payment. Properties under $1million at 28.7% in contract on a county-wide basis with 149 of 519 listings in contract as of March 17. Typically this would qualify as a sellers' market but sellers are cautioned that buyers continue to be particularly price and value sensitive and may wish to exercise restraint in pricing and negotiations. YTD SFR sales at 163 compared to 234 at this time last year. Average selling price at $910,508 vs last year's $1,365,544. Not necessarily an indication that housing values have declined to this extent. Market mix of homes selling comprised of more entry-level homes due to relative ease of obtaining "conforming mortgages" (up to $729,750) vs. "jumbo's". Between 3/4 and 3/17, there were 153 new listings of SFR's and125 price reductions. 73 listings went contingent, 41 pending, and 31 were sold. 26 Listings expired and 41 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's continuing their excellent run with 101 of 308 listings in contract overall, or 32.79%. In the $0-999K range, 97 of 293 listings are in contract, or 33.11%. Even the $1million-$1.99 million range has 4 of 15 units in contract, or 26.67%. Prices for sold units at $297,680 vs. last year's $584,103, or just about half. This reflecting the large numbers of REO (bank-owned) properties selling at deep discounts, particularly in Novato. Again, not necessarily an indication that condo's in the county have lost this kind of value. For an accurate assessment of market value, contact an experienced local real estate professional. Year-to-date units sold at 74 vs. 60 at this time last year, or an increase of 23.3%. For the period from 3/4/09 to 2/17/09, there were 33 new condo listings and 46 price reductions. 36 listings went contingent, 11 pending, and 15 were sold. 10 listings expired and 11 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
3.20.2009
Hello Everyone,
Better economic news this week:
From CNNMoney.com,
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks managed gains for the second week in a row despite tumbling Friday, as investors pulled back after the recent run.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 122 points or 1.7%. However, it also managed slim gains for the week, rising for the second week in a row for the first time since last May. Full story at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
March 20 Wall Street Journal headline Informs "Under 5% Mortgages Are Likely At the Bottom", saying "The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed."
Here in the Marin County housing market, both inventory and activity are up, with exuberance of spring buoying spirits and tempting both buyers and sellers.
Single Family Residences (SFR): Inventory at 956 homes, 193 in contract, or 20.19, about a 1 point increase over two weeks ago. Still a "buyers' " market overall but mostly due to continued sluggishness in the upper end. Listings above $1million at between 5% and 12% in contract continue to be attractive buying opportunities for those flush with cash or with excellent credit and sufficient down payment. Properties under $1million at 28.7% in contract on a county-wide basis with 149 of 519 listings in contract as of March 17. Typically this would qualify as a sellers' market but sellers are cautioned that buyers continue to be particularly price and value sensitive and may wish to exercise restraint in pricing and negotiations. YTD SFR sales at 163 compared to 234 at this time last year. Average selling price at $910,508 vs last year's $1,365,544. Not necessarily an indication that housing values have declined to this extent. Market mix of homes selling comprised of more entry-level homes due to relative ease of obtaining "conforming mortgages" (up to $729,750) vs. "jumbo's". Between 3/4 and 3/17, there were 153 new listings of SFR's and125 price reductions. 73 listings went contingent, 41 pending, and 31 were sold. 26 Listings expired and 41 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
Condo's continuing their excellent run with 101 of 308 listings in contract overall, or 32.79%. In the $0-999K range, 97 of 293 listings are in contract, or 33.11%. Even the $1million-$1.99 million range has 4 of 15 units in contract, or 26.67%. Prices for sold units at $297,680 vs. last year's $584,103, or just about half. This reflecting the large numbers of REO (bank-owned) properties selling at deep discounts, particularly in Novato. Again, not necessarily an indication that condo's in the county have lost this kind of value. For an accurate assessment of market value, contact an experienced local real estate professional. Year-to-date units sold at 74 vs. 60 at this time last year, or an increase of 23.3%. For the period from 3/4/09 to 2/17/09, there were 33 new condo listings and 46 price reductions. 36 listings went contingent, 11 pending, and 15 were sold. 10 listings expired and 11 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, March 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.06.2009
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Economy and stock market continue to rock and roll, with the Dow finishing the week in the 6700 range, lowest since 1997. Much of this on fears about Citibank and GM. According to the March 6 Wall Street Journal, GM now openly talking about the possibility of a "pre-packaged" bankruptcy while their auditors say they may not be able to continue operations under the current conditions----something unthinkable only months ago.
Marin City by City Analysis out this week shows Novato and San Rafael out in front of the pack at 34.2% and 27.1%, respectively, of MLS listings in-contract as of March 3. As we have discussed before, this primarily due to REO activity and resultant lower prices. Out of 13 towns and cities covered by the report, 7 showed increased percentage in contract, 5 decreased and San Anselmo remained essentially unchanged at 16%. Greenbrae at the bottom of the ladder with 0 of 20 listings in contract as of March 3.
Single Family Residences down to 19.22% in contract overall. This, primarily due to lagging sales in the over- $1million listings, which range from 6.9% to 12.55% in contract- solid buyers markets with big opportunities for those well qualified for loans or with cash to spend. Conversely, the under-$1million market at 26.15% in contract, down a bit from last month's 30.6%, but still respectable. Year to date (YTD) units sold at 133 to March 3 vs. 177 last year, a drop of 24.8% but actually a slight improvement over -27% in last month's report. Average sale price of units sold YTD is at $838,372 vs. $1,398,972 last year at the same time. This due in large part to less expensive homes selling (the under-$1million segment mentioned above), and not an indication that home prices have plummeted 40%. Days on Market (DOM) for sold listings at 116 vs. 109 a year ago. In February, there were 225 new SFR listings, 56 sales, 148 accepted offers and 121 listings expired or were cancelled (MarketQuest).
Condo's doing quite nicely at 31.2% in contract overall and 59 units sold YTD as of March 3 vs. 43 units last year at the same time, an increase of 37%. Again, average prices for units sold at $306,400 vs. last year's $600,887 a result of lower-end units selling and not an indication of a 50% collapse in value, though condominium values, particularly in northern Marin have suffered due to REO sales. DOM at117 vs. 95 at this time in 08. In February there were 75 new condo listings, 22 sales, 68 accepted offers and 46 listings expired or were cancelled (Market Quest).
Current market offers great opportunity with excellent prices. Good ability to negotiate. Great loan rates. Not likely we will see a confluence of these events again for many years. Wise buyers and sellers benefit from the experience and market knowledge of experienced local real estate professionals and loan officers/mortgage brokers-- invaluable in this kind of environment.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Economy and stock market continue to rock and roll, with the Dow finishing the week in the 6700 range, lowest since 1997. Much of this on fears about Citibank and GM. According to the March 6 Wall Street Journal, GM now openly talking about the possibility of a "pre-packaged" bankruptcy while their auditors say they may not be able to continue operations under the current conditions----something unthinkable only months ago.
Marin City by City Analysis out this week shows Novato and San Rafael out in front of the pack at 34.2% and 27.1%, respectively, of MLS listings in-contract as of March 3. As we have discussed before, this primarily due to REO activity and resultant lower prices. Out of 13 towns and cities covered by the report, 7 showed increased percentage in contract, 5 decreased and San Anselmo remained essentially unchanged at 16%. Greenbrae at the bottom of the ladder with 0 of 20 listings in contract as of March 3.
Single Family Residences down to 19.22% in contract overall. This, primarily due to lagging sales in the over- $1million listings, which range from 6.9% to 12.55% in contract- solid buyers markets with big opportunities for those well qualified for loans or with cash to spend. Conversely, the under-$1million market at 26.15% in contract, down a bit from last month's 30.6%, but still respectable. Year to date (YTD) units sold at 133 to March 3 vs. 177 last year, a drop of 24.8% but actually a slight improvement over -27% in last month's report. Average sale price of units sold YTD is at $838,372 vs. $1,398,972 last year at the same time. This due in large part to less expensive homes selling (the under-$1million segment mentioned above), and not an indication that home prices have plummeted 40%. Days on Market (DOM) for sold listings at 116 vs. 109 a year ago. In February, there were 225 new SFR listings, 56 sales, 148 accepted offers and 121 listings expired or were cancelled (MarketQuest).
Condo's doing quite nicely at 31.2% in contract overall and 59 units sold YTD as of March 3 vs. 43 units last year at the same time, an increase of 37%. Again, average prices for units sold at $306,400 vs. last year's $600,887 a result of lower-end units selling and not an indication of a 50% collapse in value, though condominium values, particularly in northern Marin have suffered due to REO sales. DOM at117 vs. 95 at this time in 08. In February there were 75 new condo listings, 22 sales, 68 accepted offers and 46 listings expired or were cancelled (Market Quest).
Current market offers great opportunity with excellent prices. Good ability to negotiate. Great loan rates. Not likely we will see a confluence of these events again for many years. Wise buyers and sellers benefit from the experience and market knowledge of experienced local real estate professionals and loan officers/mortgage brokers-- invaluable in this kind of environment.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, February 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.21.2009
Hello Everyone,
Today, Friday, February 20, The Marin IJ front page screamed "HOME PRICES IN MARIN DROP 24% IN A YEAR".
Data Quick Information Services, the La Jolla-based real estate information company, was quoted in the article as a major information source. The Data Quick website
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090219.aspx
features an article with some of the quoted information. It says, in part:
"The median has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 14 consecutive months. Its dramatic plunge is partially the result of the regional decline in home values. But the decline also reflects a shift toward more sales in the less-expensive inland markets; slower high-end sales; and buyers' preference for lower-priced foreclosures" (emphasis added). In other words, more low-end homes are selling, affecting the market mix and thus the average and median prices so that not all of the drop in prices is attributable to a loss of value.
According to Wikipedia, Mark Twain, quoting Benjamin Disraeli said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.", a reference to "the persuasive power of numbers , the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments----------"
The headline, while not technically untrue, presents an incomplete, limited, and misleading picture of the Marin County real estate market. Later, the body of the article backtracks, stating "January's decline was predominately due to the 40 condo sales with a median price of $246,000".
First, one month does not necessarily characterize the market. Second, the County does not consist of one uniform real estate market. The real estate market in each town or city has its own unique characteristics. Novato and San Rafael have experienced significant declines, particularly in the condominium market, while other towns and cities have fared significantly better. For combined Single Family and Condo results by city 1965 through 2008 email Fred at fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for free report.
As of February 17, there were 850 Single Family Residences listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. 121 of those, or slightly over 21%, were in contract. Homes under $1million doing much better, with 144 of 470 listed homes, or over 30% in contract. High-end homes, $1million and up at between 5.8% and 11.8% in contract, depending on price range making them a great target for well-heeled buyers looking for bargains. 96 SFR's sold YTD vs. 132 at the same time last year, down 27%. And yes, the average sold price is down from 08's $1,373,497 to $852,692, but remember, market-mix is a very significant portion of this drop. It does not mean last year's $1.4million home is this year's $850k home.
Condo's unit sales volume up about 70% YTD over last year at 48 vs. 08's tally of 20. And for the specific units that sold, the average sales price was $287,450 vs. last year's $641,345. Are condo's worth less than half of what they were worth last year? In a word, "no". And out of the 274 condo's currently on the Marin MLS for under $1million, 88 of them, or almost 32%, are in contract.
Have we reached a market bottom in Marin? The crystal ball is hazy. Ask again later, and more will be revealed. Investors are actively in the market, and some properties garner multiple offers, over asking price. Folks who need a place to live are still buying homes and getting great interest rates. First-time buyers are doing well with low prices and advantageous loans, especially the low-down-payment FHA loans.
Let's watch and see what happens.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Today, Friday, February 20, The Marin IJ front page screamed "HOME PRICES IN MARIN DROP 24% IN A YEAR".
Data Quick Information Services, the La Jolla-based real estate information company, was quoted in the article as a major information source. The Data Quick website
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090219.aspx
features an article with some of the quoted information. It says, in part:
"The median has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 14 consecutive months. Its dramatic plunge is partially the result of the regional decline in home values. But the decline also reflects a shift toward more sales in the less-expensive inland markets; slower high-end sales; and buyers' preference for lower-priced foreclosures" (emphasis added). In other words, more low-end homes are selling, affecting the market mix and thus the average and median prices so that not all of the drop in prices is attributable to a loss of value.
According to Wikipedia, Mark Twain, quoting Benjamin Disraeli said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.", a reference to "the persuasive power of numbers , the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments----------"
The headline, while not technically untrue, presents an incomplete, limited, and misleading picture of the Marin County real estate market. Later, the body of the article backtracks, stating "January's decline was predominately due to the 40 condo sales with a median price of $246,000".
First, one month does not necessarily characterize the market. Second, the County does not consist of one uniform real estate market. The real estate market in each town or city has its own unique characteristics. Novato and San Rafael have experienced significant declines, particularly in the condominium market, while other towns and cities have fared significantly better. For combined Single Family and Condo results by city 1965 through 2008 email Fred at fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for free report.
As of February 17, there were 850 Single Family Residences listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. 121 of those, or slightly over 21%, were in contract. Homes under $1million doing much better, with 144 of 470 listed homes, or over 30% in contract. High-end homes, $1million and up at between 5.8% and 11.8% in contract, depending on price range making them a great target for well-heeled buyers looking for bargains. 96 SFR's sold YTD vs. 132 at the same time last year, down 27%. And yes, the average sold price is down from 08's $1,373,497 to $852,692, but remember, market-mix is a very significant portion of this drop. It does not mean last year's $1.4million home is this year's $850k home.
Condo's unit sales volume up about 70% YTD over last year at 48 vs. 08's tally of 20. And for the specific units that sold, the average sales price was $287,450 vs. last year's $641,345. Are condo's worth less than half of what they were worth last year? In a word, "no". And out of the 274 condo's currently on the Marin MLS for under $1million, 88 of them, or almost 32%, are in contract.
Have we reached a market bottom in Marin? The crystal ball is hazy. Ask again later, and more will be revealed. Investors are actively in the market, and some properties garner multiple offers, over asking price. Folks who need a place to live are still buying homes and getting great interest rates. First-time buyers are doing well with low prices and advantageous loans, especially the low-down-payment FHA loans.
Let's watch and see what happens.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, February 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.06.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows most Marin County towns and cities percentage in contract down since last month's report. Sausalito at the bottom with only 2 of 39 listed properties in contract as of February 2, or 5.13%. Exceptions include San Rafael and Novato at the top of the list with 28 and 32 percent of properties in contract, respectively. Kentfield, San Anselmo and Fairfax also posted modest increases. Inventory of Single Family Residences up from 754 to 791. 153, or 19.34% of those in contract. In the under-$1million market, 122 of 433 homes in contract, or 28%. Homes above $1million a more difficult market due to new underwriting and appraisal standards. $1million to $2million range at 11.3% in contract but $2-$3million segment at only 3.75% in contract. Of 66 homes currently listed at $3million and above, only 4 in contract on February 2, or 6%. High-end buyers with cash in a great position to make deals while many high-end would-be sellers choosing to wait out an improvement in the market. Real estate analyst Carol Rodoni, in a presentation this week to Marin County Coldwell Banker agents, said that current market conditions in California may continue through 2009 and into 2010 or even 2011 in some areas. Year to date units sold at 68 vs. 89 at this time last year, down 23%. Average sold price at $882,069 vs. $1,395,098 in '08 at the same time (price decrease a function of market mix as well as declines in value). Days on market for YTD sold properties now 123, up 19 from last year's comparable figure.
Marin County Condo market continued to show strong sales with 27.8% of all currently listed condo's in contract. The under-$1million condo market at 29.32% in contract while the over $1million segment sits with 14 listed properties and none in contract. YTD condo sales at 32 units to February 2 vs. 19 units at the same time last year. Average sale price $276,769 vs. $688,863 last year. This reduction a combination of decline in value as well as market mix, meaning that lower-end properties are selling. Average Days on market for YTD sold properties at 112 vs. 90 for the same time in '08.
Current U.S. economy still awaits an injection of confidence while new administration wrangles with Congress over what form the stimulus package will take. Stocks rallied today (Feb 6) on hopes the program would take shape soon and be voted into law.
More next time----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows most Marin County towns and cities percentage in contract down since last month's report. Sausalito at the bottom with only 2 of 39 listed properties in contract as of February 2, or 5.13%. Exceptions include San Rafael and Novato at the top of the list with 28 and 32 percent of properties in contract, respectively. Kentfield, San Anselmo and Fairfax also posted modest increases. Inventory of Single Family Residences up from 754 to 791. 153, or 19.34% of those in contract. In the under-$1million market, 122 of 433 homes in contract, or 28%. Homes above $1million a more difficult market due to new underwriting and appraisal standards. $1million to $2million range at 11.3% in contract but $2-$3million segment at only 3.75% in contract. Of 66 homes currently listed at $3million and above, only 4 in contract on February 2, or 6%. High-end buyers with cash in a great position to make deals while many high-end would-be sellers choosing to wait out an improvement in the market. Real estate analyst Carol Rodoni, in a presentation this week to Marin County Coldwell Banker agents, said that current market conditions in California may continue through 2009 and into 2010 or even 2011 in some areas. Year to date units sold at 68 vs. 89 at this time last year, down 23%. Average sold price at $882,069 vs. $1,395,098 in '08 at the same time (price decrease a function of market mix as well as declines in value). Days on market for YTD sold properties now 123, up 19 from last year's comparable figure.
Marin County Condo market continued to show strong sales with 27.8% of all currently listed condo's in contract. The under-$1million condo market at 29.32% in contract while the over $1million segment sits with 14 listed properties and none in contract. YTD condo sales at 32 units to February 2 vs. 19 units at the same time last year. Average sale price $276,769 vs. $688,863 last year. This reduction a combination of decline in value as well as market mix, meaning that lower-end properties are selling. Average Days on market for YTD sold properties at 112 vs. 90 for the same time in '08.
Current U.S. economy still awaits an injection of confidence while new administration wrangles with Congress over what form the stimulus package will take. Stocks rallied today (Feb 6) on hopes the program would take shape soon and be voted into law.
More next time----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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