Hello Everyone,
An October 14th article by DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service features the headline: "Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago". Chart at the bottom of the article lists Marin County as having a 10.6% increase in unit sales, comparing Sept., 2010 to Sept., 2011 results, but a 10.5% decrease in the median sales price. Article notes that Bay Area foreclosure resales were down a couple of percentage points during September, compared to the year-ago figure--- 25.6% of homes sold during the month vs. 27.5% last year. However, short sales made up about 20.1% of resales last month, compared to15.4% in September, 2010 and 15.3% in September, 2009, the article went on to say. Full text of article available at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111014.aspx
Our own MLS statistics similar to those referenced in the article, showing Single Family Residences (SFR) up in unit sales, from 1431, YTD, as of 10/1, 2010 to1487 as of 10/1/2011---a 3.9% increase. Average YTD sold price for SFR's for the date are $1,002,406, compared to $1,049,919 a year ago. Percentages will not line up directly with the DataQuick numbers because they measure different areas by slightly different yardsticks. The important thing is that the trends are the same. SFR inventory down again, to 1033 units on 10/1. 306 of those, or 29.62% were in contract, about the same as last report. Homes under $1million, though, continue to be strong performers, with 39.38% in contract. Homes in the $1million to $2million range held steady, at a little over 19% in contract, while $2million-$3million homes notched up from 12.35% in contract at last report to 15.66% this time, the highest since July.
Condominiums actually forging ahead much more strongly on sales, with 426 sold, YTD, as of October 1, compared to 371 last year, a 14.8% increase. Prices on condo's also decreased, with the average sold price for the year at $365,319 on October 1, compared to $401,599 a year ago. Condo percentage in contract keeps going up, while inventory continues to head in the opposite direction. On July 26, there were 378 active condo listings in Marin, and 135 were in contract--- about 35.7%. On October 1, the figures were 337 active listings, of which 45.1% or 152 units were in contract. Just a reminder about sales prices for both SFR's and Condo's. It is estimated that only about half of the amount of price decreases is attributable to lower values--- the other half a result of changes in "market mix", meaning homes of lesser value were coming to market.
Stock market has just finished its 3rd positive week, removing some of the fear from the forefront of people's minds, but try to remember that the future of the Marin County real estate market is not directly related to the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market. What is more important is that prices are great, and interest rates are low. For those who need a place to live, this should provide a major incentive to take the plunge.
Marin County real estate market is active, with buyers looking for what they consider to be acceptable properties, then pouncing on them, often several at a time. One home last week was rumored to have over 16 offers. Many sellers still holding off listing their homes, trying to wait out the down market. May be missing an opportunity to sell at a good price now!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. To view spreadsheets, please visit my website:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, October 14, 2011
Monday, October 3, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate. 10.3.2011
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, September 18, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.18.2011
Hello Everyone,
"More Bay Area homes sold last month but the pace was still well below average as the market remained plagued by uncertainty – over the future of home prices, jobs, the economy and the nation’s political future. The median price paid for a home dropped below the year-ago level for the 11th consecutive month as distressed property sales claimed around half of the resale market" according to a September 16 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, a real estate news service. This pretty much sums up what we have been saying recently about our local Marin County real estate market. Buyers afraid to make long-term commitments when they don't know if they will have jobs or if their newly-purchased homes will maintain their value. Article goes on to state "Looking ahead, we'll be watching the mortgage default filings closely, given their surge last month from July. If that continues this fall, it could mean a lot more distressed properties on the market next year, which would put downward pressure on prices." Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110916.aspx
Here in Marin County, year-to-date (YTD) real estate sales vs. 2010 are up in units but down in price.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Approximately 47% of Main County SFR's sold YTD represented some type of distressed sale, resulting in continued price restraint. Unit sales as of September 13 were 1339 units, vs. 1290 at the same time last year, an increase of 3.8%. Average sold price, however, fell from $1,042,985 to $1,001,269. As we have noted previously, please keep in mind that we estimate at least half that price decline is attributable to market mix rather than price decline.
Condominiums
Condo's told a similar story. Approximately 61% of YTD Marin County condo sales were distressed. Condo unit sales as of September 13 were 384 units vs. 340 at the same time in 2010, an increase of 13%. Condo prices were down too, with the average sold price at $371,429 vs. the year-ago figure of $404,630.
While it may be true, as the DataQuick article suggests, that there is more downside risk in this market, it appears that if we are not at the bottom of the market, we are certainly near it. Population will continue to increase, there is a limited supply of Bay Area housing, and Marin County has very little room to build more. In real estate, as in the stock market, just about everyone agrees it is extremely difficult to identify the absolute bottom of a market. Usually what happens is that by the time people realize that the market has turned positive again, significant gains have already been made. So the question becomes whether or not any money lost on a small post-purchase price decline would be less than the extra money paid by delaying the purchase until prices are already on their way back up. At that point, more properties will be receiving multiple offers and competition with other buyers will be driving prices up--- probably not the way they went up in 2006-2007, but significantly, nonetheless. In addition, mortgage rates will probably increase due to an increased demand for funds. Is it better to buy now, with less competition, lower price, lower rate mortgage--- or wait until everyone else decides to jump in the market? A $500,000 mortgage with an increase of 1% in the lending rate would add on about $416 to the monthly payment. As we have said before, buying Marin County real estate now seems like a no-brainer. The DataQuick article notes that, in August, 21.3% of homes sold in the County were purchased by "absentee buyers-mostly investors", up from 17.8% a year ago. Do they know something the rest of us don't?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
"More Bay Area homes sold last month but the pace was still well below average as the market remained plagued by uncertainty – over the future of home prices, jobs, the economy and the nation’s political future. The median price paid for a home dropped below the year-ago level for the 11th consecutive month as distressed property sales claimed around half of the resale market" according to a September 16 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, a real estate news service. This pretty much sums up what we have been saying recently about our local Marin County real estate market. Buyers afraid to make long-term commitments when they don't know if they will have jobs or if their newly-purchased homes will maintain their value. Article goes on to state "Looking ahead, we'll be watching the mortgage default filings closely, given their surge last month from July. If that continues this fall, it could mean a lot more distressed properties on the market next year, which would put downward pressure on prices." Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110916.aspx
Here in Marin County, year-to-date (YTD) real estate sales vs. 2010 are up in units but down in price.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Approximately 47% of Main County SFR's sold YTD represented some type of distressed sale, resulting in continued price restraint. Unit sales as of September 13 were 1339 units, vs. 1290 at the same time last year, an increase of 3.8%. Average sold price, however, fell from $1,042,985 to $1,001,269. As we have noted previously, please keep in mind that we estimate at least half that price decline is attributable to market mix rather than price decline.
Condominiums
Condo's told a similar story. Approximately 61% of YTD Marin County condo sales were distressed. Condo unit sales as of September 13 were 384 units vs. 340 at the same time in 2010, an increase of 13%. Condo prices were down too, with the average sold price at $371,429 vs. the year-ago figure of $404,630.
While it may be true, as the DataQuick article suggests, that there is more downside risk in this market, it appears that if we are not at the bottom of the market, we are certainly near it. Population will continue to increase, there is a limited supply of Bay Area housing, and Marin County has very little room to build more. In real estate, as in the stock market, just about everyone agrees it is extremely difficult to identify the absolute bottom of a market. Usually what happens is that by the time people realize that the market has turned positive again, significant gains have already been made. So the question becomes whether or not any money lost on a small post-purchase price decline would be less than the extra money paid by delaying the purchase until prices are already on their way back up. At that point, more properties will be receiving multiple offers and competition with other buyers will be driving prices up--- probably not the way they went up in 2006-2007, but significantly, nonetheless. In addition, mortgage rates will probably increase due to an increased demand for funds. Is it better to buy now, with less competition, lower price, lower rate mortgage--- or wait until everyone else decides to jump in the market? A $500,000 mortgage with an increase of 1% in the lending rate would add on about $416 to the monthly payment. As we have said before, buying Marin County real estate now seems like a no-brainer. The DataQuick article notes that, in August, 21.3% of homes sold in the County were purchased by "absentee buyers-mostly investors", up from 17.8% a year ago. Do they know something the rest of us don't?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, September 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.4.11
Hello Everyone,
The summer seemed to pass us by really quickly, and here we are-- already at the end of another Labor Day Weekend!
City-by-City analysis, out this week shows 6 of 13 listed cities and towns' percentage in contract up, and 7 down, most of them only incremental. Three notable exceptions to this are:
1. Belvedere, with 29 homes on the market as of 9/4, and none of them in contract 2.Mill Valley, where inventory decreased from 173 last month, to 159, and percentage in contract increased from 24.86% to 29.56% 3. Novato, with a decrease from 334 to 313 listed housing units and percentage in contract increasing from 38% to 43.45%.
Overall, housing inventory very low for this time of year, compared to prior years. Results in a lot of activity for attractive, well-priced new listings, which are often gone in the first 1 or 2 weeks, not infrequently with multiple offers. Most of them not going far over listing price, but a few are. Proper pricing still a major key to success, as overpriced homes tend to sit on the market while buyers wait for prices to get into line with reality. Many buyers making offers substantially below listing price, hoping to negotiate something in between their offer and the advertised price. Many of them successful!
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory, at 710 units (CB Market action report. Figures do not include properties in-contract, accounting for the difference between this number and the SFR and Condo reports, which do include those properties). To put this in perspective, in August of 2010, there were 1,237 SFR units listed, and in August of '09, 1,212. In December of '10, the low point for the year, there were 753 SFR units on MLS. In Dec. of '09, it was 809, and in '08, it was 805. On 8/30, the months' supply of inventory (MSI) for SFR's (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, less than half of last August's 9 month supply. In the County, 1264 SFR units sold YTD as of 8/30, compared to 1222 at the same time last year, a 3.7% increase, so even with less inventory from which to choose, buyers somehow managed to find and purchase more property this year than last. Judging from the number of open escrows we are seeing, we are looking for that trend to continue through the fall. The big question is-- when will sellers start to turn the supply of homes back on??
Condominiums following a pattern similar to SFR's. Inventory severely constrained, with only 247 units available (CB Market Action Report) as of 8/30. Compares to 381 last August, and 344 in Aug of '09. The December figures for the last 3 years are: Dec, 2010----291; Dec 2009-- 260'; and Dec 2008----287. YTD condo units sold as of 8/30 were 358, up 11.5% from last August's 321. MSI for condo's as of 8/30 (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, again less than half of last August's 10 month supply!
There seems to be a lot of pent-up buyer demand in the market. Normally, this would result in higher prices which, in turn, would pull more inventory into the market. Strict underwriting and appraisal standards are holding this in check to a large extent, so sellers are giving the contracts to the "gold plated" buyers--- the ones they think have the best chance of closing escrow. All-cash buyers, or those with a major portion of the purchase price in cash have a very significant advantage in this market, especially in sales involving new listings. Homes priced above $2million (mostly SFR's) declined to 9.86% in contract from last month's 17.72%. Previous 3 months had been in the 13% to 16% range. Unclear if this is a trend, but looks like a further opportunity for high-end buyers. Individuals thinking about moving up to larger homes would do well to focus more attention on the huge potential savings on a new upper-end home purchase as it will more than likely significantly outweigh any potential loss on the sale of the lower-priced current home. When opportunity knocks-------!
More next time.
Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous autumn season,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
The summer seemed to pass us by really quickly, and here we are-- already at the end of another Labor Day Weekend!
City-by-City analysis, out this week shows 6 of 13 listed cities and towns' percentage in contract up, and 7 down, most of them only incremental. Three notable exceptions to this are:
1. Belvedere, with 29 homes on the market as of 9/4, and none of them in contract 2.Mill Valley, where inventory decreased from 173 last month, to 159, and percentage in contract increased from 24.86% to 29.56% 3. Novato, with a decrease from 334 to 313 listed housing units and percentage in contract increasing from 38% to 43.45%.
Overall, housing inventory very low for this time of year, compared to prior years. Results in a lot of activity for attractive, well-priced new listings, which are often gone in the first 1 or 2 weeks, not infrequently with multiple offers. Most of them not going far over listing price, but a few are. Proper pricing still a major key to success, as overpriced homes tend to sit on the market while buyers wait for prices to get into line with reality. Many buyers making offers substantially below listing price, hoping to negotiate something in between their offer and the advertised price. Many of them successful!
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory, at 710 units (CB Market action report. Figures do not include properties in-contract, accounting for the difference between this number and the SFR and Condo reports, which do include those properties). To put this in perspective, in August of 2010, there were 1,237 SFR units listed, and in August of '09, 1,212. In December of '10, the low point for the year, there were 753 SFR units on MLS. In Dec. of '09, it was 809, and in '08, it was 805. On 8/30, the months' supply of inventory (MSI) for SFR's (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, less than half of last August's 9 month supply. In the County, 1264 SFR units sold YTD as of 8/30, compared to 1222 at the same time last year, a 3.7% increase, so even with less inventory from which to choose, buyers somehow managed to find and purchase more property this year than last. Judging from the number of open escrows we are seeing, we are looking for that trend to continue through the fall. The big question is-- when will sellers start to turn the supply of homes back on??
Condominiums following a pattern similar to SFR's. Inventory severely constrained, with only 247 units available (CB Market Action Report) as of 8/30. Compares to 381 last August, and 344 in Aug of '09. The December figures for the last 3 years are: Dec, 2010----291; Dec 2009-- 260'; and Dec 2008----287. YTD condo units sold as of 8/30 were 358, up 11.5% from last August's 321. MSI for condo's as of 8/30 (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, again less than half of last August's 10 month supply!
There seems to be a lot of pent-up buyer demand in the market. Normally, this would result in higher prices which, in turn, would pull more inventory into the market. Strict underwriting and appraisal standards are holding this in check to a large extent, so sellers are giving the contracts to the "gold plated" buyers--- the ones they think have the best chance of closing escrow. All-cash buyers, or those with a major portion of the purchase price in cash have a very significant advantage in this market, especially in sales involving new listings. Homes priced above $2million (mostly SFR's) declined to 9.86% in contract from last month's 17.72%. Previous 3 months had been in the 13% to 16% range. Unclear if this is a trend, but looks like a further opportunity for high-end buyers. Individuals thinking about moving up to larger homes would do well to focus more attention on the huge potential savings on a new upper-end home purchase as it will more than likely significantly outweigh any potential loss on the sale of the lower-priced current home. When opportunity knocks-------!
More next time.
Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous autumn season,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, August 21, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.21.11
Hello Everyone,
I love the following quote from John Walsh, president of La Jolla-based Data Quick, a real estate information service. The article in which it appeared was dated August 16. Full text available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110816.aspx
Speaking of the Bay Area housing market, Mr. Walsh stated:
"We’re still looking at a dysfunctional market. Distribution curves are lopsided, bottom-feeding is still prevalent and the lending market is just plain weird. We’re off bottom by all metrics, but far from anything resembling normal,"
Normally, the local real estate market takes a bit of a vacation, along with everyone else, in July and August. But this year, it took a bit more of a vacation than usual, with Bay-Area home unit sales decreasing 13.9 percent from June, compared to a historical average of 6.8 percent since 1988. (from DQ statistics)
With all the financial drama from the debt cap debacle and the constantly publicized continuing concern over the stability of the Euro and certain countries' solvency all being reflected in Wall Street swoops and dives, it is nearly impossible to tell whether we are climbing out of a familiar hole or falling into a new one! The media hype tends to engender fear and paralysis and many people find it difficult to make a large financial commitment in the face of such uncertainty.
Meanwhile, people who need homes and have faith in the economy are buying and they are getting great deals on two fronts. First, prices are more attractive than they have been in years, and second, interest rates are at historic lows. Buying property now, especially in Marin County, seems like a complete no-brainer. Many buyers who take time to do the math find that with the tax benefits and the low prices and loan rates , they can buy more cheaply than they can rent---and they won't lose their security deposit for hanging pictures on the walls! The truth is that while housing prices have been falling, rental rates have often increased.
Sellers wondering what's in it for them in this market can look to the low current levels of housing inventory for sale in Marin County. According to Coldwell Banker MarketQuest, inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at the end of July was down 19.3% from June, and 38.8% from July of 2010. Similarly, Condominium inventory was down 11.8% from June, and down 22.2% from July of 2010. These reduced levels of inventory create more demand and more competition for the properties that are on the market and more opportunities for sellers.
YTD unit sales of SFR's in Marin County were 1186 as of August 16, compared to the year-ago figure of 1161, up 2.2%. Average sold price was down about 4.6%, from $1,051,462 as of 8.16.10 to $1,006,672 on the same date this year, and days on the market (DOM) for YTD sold properties was 106 this year vs. 87 a year ago. The figures for condo's were: YTD unit sales as of 8.16.11--334, compared to 304 on 8.16.10, an increase of 9.2%. Average YTD condo sold price down 6.4% from $396,364 in Aug of 2010 to $370,939 on 8.16.2011, or -6.4%. As we have mentioned a number of times previously, unit price declines are not entirely attributable to declines in value but also have to do with "market mix", meaning less expensive homes are selling in greater numbers, skewing the averages. Percentage in contract for SFR's under $1million at 37.98%, down only slightly from 39.79% at last report, still considered a sellers' market. Higher-priced SFR's in the $1million to $2million and $2million to $3million ranges went up by 1 to 2 percentage points, but still in 'Strong Buyers' territory. Properties over $3million dropped from 11% to only 6% in contract over the last two weeks. Higher-end SFR's continue to represent a trememdous opportunity for buyers with money to spend. Percentage in contract for condo's under $1million (all but 15 of them) also down slightly from 37.12% at last report to 35.67% on August 16, hanging in to sellers' market territory by a gnat's breath.
Business at local brokerages brisk over the past couple of weeks. Lots of talk about listings with multiple offers. This is still not the rule, by any means, but attractive, well-priced and well-located homes often become the object of buyer competition. Investors continue to snap up properties. According to the DataQuick, article, "absentee buyers---mostly investors--purchased 21.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold (in July), up from 20% in June, and 17.4% a year ago". The article goes on to state that all-cash buyers "accounted for 26.3% of sales in July, up from 26.0% in June, and up from 25.1% a year ago.------ the monthly average is 11.9% since 1988". All things considered, the local real estate market seems very much alive. More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
I love the following quote from John Walsh, president of La Jolla-based Data Quick, a real estate information service. The article in which it appeared was dated August 16. Full text available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110816.aspx
Speaking of the Bay Area housing market, Mr. Walsh stated:
"We’re still looking at a dysfunctional market. Distribution curves are lopsided, bottom-feeding is still prevalent and the lending market is just plain weird. We’re off bottom by all metrics, but far from anything resembling normal,"
Normally, the local real estate market takes a bit of a vacation, along with everyone else, in July and August. But this year, it took a bit more of a vacation than usual, with Bay-Area home unit sales decreasing 13.9 percent from June, compared to a historical average of 6.8 percent since 1988. (from DQ statistics)
With all the financial drama from the debt cap debacle and the constantly publicized continuing concern over the stability of the Euro and certain countries' solvency all being reflected in Wall Street swoops and dives, it is nearly impossible to tell whether we are climbing out of a familiar hole or falling into a new one! The media hype tends to engender fear and paralysis and many people find it difficult to make a large financial commitment in the face of such uncertainty.
Meanwhile, people who need homes and have faith in the economy are buying and they are getting great deals on two fronts. First, prices are more attractive than they have been in years, and second, interest rates are at historic lows. Buying property now, especially in Marin County, seems like a complete no-brainer. Many buyers who take time to do the math find that with the tax benefits and the low prices and loan rates , they can buy more cheaply than they can rent---and they won't lose their security deposit for hanging pictures on the walls! The truth is that while housing prices have been falling, rental rates have often increased.
Sellers wondering what's in it for them in this market can look to the low current levels of housing inventory for sale in Marin County. According to Coldwell Banker MarketQuest, inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at the end of July was down 19.3% from June, and 38.8% from July of 2010. Similarly, Condominium inventory was down 11.8% from June, and down 22.2% from July of 2010. These reduced levels of inventory create more demand and more competition for the properties that are on the market and more opportunities for sellers.
YTD unit sales of SFR's in Marin County were 1186 as of August 16, compared to the year-ago figure of 1161, up 2.2%. Average sold price was down about 4.6%, from $1,051,462 as of 8.16.10 to $1,006,672 on the same date this year, and days on the market (DOM) for YTD sold properties was 106 this year vs. 87 a year ago. The figures for condo's were: YTD unit sales as of 8.16.11--334, compared to 304 on 8.16.10, an increase of 9.2%. Average YTD condo sold price down 6.4% from $396,364 in Aug of 2010 to $370,939 on 8.16.2011, or -6.4%. As we have mentioned a number of times previously, unit price declines are not entirely attributable to declines in value but also have to do with "market mix", meaning less expensive homes are selling in greater numbers, skewing the averages. Percentage in contract for SFR's under $1million at 37.98%, down only slightly from 39.79% at last report, still considered a sellers' market. Higher-priced SFR's in the $1million to $2million and $2million to $3million ranges went up by 1 to 2 percentage points, but still in 'Strong Buyers' territory. Properties over $3million dropped from 11% to only 6% in contract over the last two weeks. Higher-end SFR's continue to represent a trememdous opportunity for buyers with money to spend. Percentage in contract for condo's under $1million (all but 15 of them) also down slightly from 37.12% at last report to 35.67% on August 16, hanging in to sellers' market territory by a gnat's breath.
Business at local brokerages brisk over the past couple of weeks. Lots of talk about listings with multiple offers. This is still not the rule, by any means, but attractive, well-priced and well-located homes often become the object of buyer competition. Investors continue to snap up properties. According to the DataQuick, article, "absentee buyers---mostly investors--purchased 21.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold (in July), up from 20% in June, and 17.4% a year ago". The article goes on to state that all-cash buyers "accounted for 26.3% of sales in July, up from 26.0% in June, and up from 25.1% a year ago.------ the monthly average is 11.9% since 1988". All things considered, the local real estate market seems very much alive. More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, August 1, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.1.2011
Hello Everyone,
About four times every year, the calendar gets out of synch with our twice-per-month reporting format, and we have to wait for it to "catch up". The current period is one of those times. While we are waiting for the end-of-month data to be compiled by the reporting services we use, the writer has provided the monthly reports that are available for your use via his website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
The City-by-City Report, out this week, shows the percentage in contract of only 3 of the covered Marin County cities and towns decreased. It increased, even if only slightly, in the other 10! Single Family YTD home sales as of July 26 were 1058, compared to 1055 last year at the same time, or up 1/3 of 1%! This is great news, since we had the federal and state tax incentives last year and none this year! SFR inventory down slightly from 1141 at last report to 1115 on July 26, with percentage in contract holding pretty steady, and even increasing in the $0-$999K range (from 36.8% to 39.8%). Condo's putting forth a creditable effort too, with 292 YTD units sold as of July 26, compared to the year-ago figure of 275, or up 6%. This, a significant increase from the 2.7% year-over-year increase reported last time. Condo percentages in contract holding or increasing slightly as well.
The writer wishes all a safe and enjoyable summer season.
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
About four times every year, the calendar gets out of synch with our twice-per-month reporting format, and we have to wait for it to "catch up". The current period is one of those times. While we are waiting for the end-of-month data to be compiled by the reporting services we use, the writer has provided the monthly reports that are available for your use via his website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
The City-by-City Report, out this week, shows the percentage in contract of only 3 of the covered Marin County cities and towns decreased. It increased, even if only slightly, in the other 10! Single Family YTD home sales as of July 26 were 1058, compared to 1055 last year at the same time, or up 1/3 of 1%! This is great news, since we had the federal and state tax incentives last year and none this year! SFR inventory down slightly from 1141 at last report to 1115 on July 26, with percentage in contract holding pretty steady, and even increasing in the $0-$999K range (from 36.8% to 39.8%). Condo's putting forth a creditable effort too, with 292 YTD units sold as of July 26, compared to the year-ago figure of 275, or up 6%. This, a significant increase from the 2.7% year-over-year increase reported last time. Condo percentages in contract holding or increasing slightly as well.
The writer wishes all a safe and enjoyable summer season.
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, July 17, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.17.2011
Hello Everyone,
Marin County year-to-date (YTD) sales of single family residences (SFR) continuing to put in a good effort, holding roughly even with last year's sales at 978 units as of July 12, vs. the year-ago figure of 980, representing a decrease of just 2/10ths of a percent. Condominium sales hanging in there too, with 270 YTD units sold on July 12 vs. last year's 263, a 2.6% increase! This all the more notable since last year's sales in the 1st half of the year were artificially supported by the now-expired federal tax credits. Average home prices in the County are down a bit, and days on market (DOM) up: The average selling price of a Marin County SFR as of 7.12.11, was $1,001,582, compared to $1,041,200 at the same time in 2010. Average DOM were 105, compared to the 2010 figure of 88 on the same date. The 2011 YTD average sale price for condo's to July 12 was $370,371 and average DOM were 134. This compares to $396,802 and 104 DOM on the same date in 2010. As we have remarked before, probably only about half of the price attrition is attributable to declining home values, with the remainder due to sales of lower-priced foreclosures that are often in poor condition. Home prices vary widely by city, town, neighborhood, street, and individual residence. The best source of information about the value of your home is a REALTOR experienced in your specific market.
San Diego-based DataQuick, in a July 14 article noted that Marin County home sales were up 8.3% in June, with 313 total units (SFR and condo) selling during the period, compared to 289 the prior year (June, 2010), but median prices were down an average of 6.9% for the same period (follow link to see chart on p.2 of their article). The article also noted a 14.5% increase in units sold from May, 2011 to June, 2011 for the entire Bay Area. Full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110714.aspx
Percentage in contract and inventory of both SFR's and Condo's remaining roughly stable over the last two weeks, with 28.5% of SFR's in contract, representing 325 of 1141 listed properties. This figure a bit deceptive since properties under $1million actually doing significantly better, with 244 of 663 listed properties in that price range in contract, or 36.8%. Homes above $1million at between 11.7% and 19.% in contract depending upon price range, with percentage in contract decreasing as market price increases. This reflects continued challenges of obtaining "jumbo" financing--- easier than at the low point of the market, but still not easy. In spite of these challenges, upper-end home sales holding fairly steady, but continuing to present a major opportunity for buyers who either have cash or can qualify for financing.
Agents, buyers, and sellers in the know warily eyeing the scheduled reduction in the temporarily increased FHA loan limits, currently $729,750 in Marin County. If not renewed, the loan limit would drop on October 1, to $625,500, a reduction of $104,250. Concern is that the reduction has the potential for significant adverse effect on loan rates, home prices, and sales. Congress scheduled next week to consider whether to extend the higher limits. More on this later. Wall St. Journal recently published an informative article on the subject. See full text at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576450511770761504.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Marin County year-to-date (YTD) sales of single family residences (SFR) continuing to put in a good effort, holding roughly even with last year's sales at 978 units as of July 12, vs. the year-ago figure of 980, representing a decrease of just 2/10ths of a percent. Condominium sales hanging in there too, with 270 YTD units sold on July 12 vs. last year's 263, a 2.6% increase! This all the more notable since last year's sales in the 1st half of the year were artificially supported by the now-expired federal tax credits. Average home prices in the County are down a bit, and days on market (DOM) up: The average selling price of a Marin County SFR as of 7.12.11, was $1,001,582, compared to $1,041,200 at the same time in 2010. Average DOM were 105, compared to the 2010 figure of 88 on the same date. The 2011 YTD average sale price for condo's to July 12 was $370,371 and average DOM were 134. This compares to $396,802 and 104 DOM on the same date in 2010. As we have remarked before, probably only about half of the price attrition is attributable to declining home values, with the remainder due to sales of lower-priced foreclosures that are often in poor condition. Home prices vary widely by city, town, neighborhood, street, and individual residence. The best source of information about the value of your home is a REALTOR experienced in your specific market.
San Diego-based DataQuick, in a July 14 article noted that Marin County home sales were up 8.3% in June, with 313 total units (SFR and condo) selling during the period, compared to 289 the prior year (June, 2010), but median prices were down an average of 6.9% for the same period (follow link to see chart on p.2 of their article). The article also noted a 14.5% increase in units sold from May, 2011 to June, 2011 for the entire Bay Area. Full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110714.aspx
Percentage in contract and inventory of both SFR's and Condo's remaining roughly stable over the last two weeks, with 28.5% of SFR's in contract, representing 325 of 1141 listed properties. This figure a bit deceptive since properties under $1million actually doing significantly better, with 244 of 663 listed properties in that price range in contract, or 36.8%. Homes above $1million at between 11.7% and 19.% in contract depending upon price range, with percentage in contract decreasing as market price increases. This reflects continued challenges of obtaining "jumbo" financing--- easier than at the low point of the market, but still not easy. In spite of these challenges, upper-end home sales holding fairly steady, but continuing to present a major opportunity for buyers who either have cash or can qualify for financing.
Agents, buyers, and sellers in the know warily eyeing the scheduled reduction in the temporarily increased FHA loan limits, currently $729,750 in Marin County. If not renewed, the loan limit would drop on October 1, to $625,500, a reduction of $104,250. Concern is that the reduction has the potential for significant adverse effect on loan rates, home prices, and sales. Congress scheduled next week to consider whether to extend the higher limits. More on this later. Wall St. Journal recently published an informative article on the subject. See full text at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576450511770761504.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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