Hello Everyone,
Some concern this week about the ending, June 30th, of the Federal Reserve injection of cash into the financial system, known as Quantitative Easing. The Fed has supplied the financial markets with some $600 Billion in cash liquidity since the beginning of this (2nd) phase of the program in November, 2010. Stock market jittery. Many different opinions on what will happen next. Some analysts predicting the government will be forced to support the economy with a third round of Quantitative easing before too long.
Two weeks ago, in the cold and rain, we wondered if spring would ever come. Yes, there had been a few nice days, but always a return to the rain After over seven months of cold, windy, rainy weather, we had had enough. Now, suddenly it is summer and the weather is beautiful. And the real estate market seems just like that--- a few bright spots surrounded by pessimism and doubt. Meanwhile, investors continue to snap up a large portion of the available Bay Area residential real estate--- over 21% in May, according to the most recent DataQuick monthly report, dated June 15. http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110615.aspx These investors know a good deal when they see one. Home prices and mortgage rates continue at lows not seen in many years, and, like our recent extended winter, it may seem as if these bargains will go on forever. History tells us they will not. One day we will realize that the recovery has happened. In the interim, many people who formerly found themselves unable to achieve their dream of home ownership will reach out and grab it. Buyers are encouraged to take a serious look at the opportunities presented by this market! Don't wait 'till it's over!
Here in Marin County, sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) holding up pretty well. 29.33% of all SFR's listed on MLS in contract as of June 14, just slightly below the 30.56% when we reported 2 weeks ago. $0-$999K segment down 7/10ths of a point at 38.12%. We are calling this a Sellers' Market, but it is largely a Sellers' Market in name only. Homes that are attractively priced, prepared, and presented are selling, sometimes with multiple offers, but sellers ability to dictate price is still not there in most cases. Upper-end homes continue to be a huge bargain for buyers, and the more upper-end, the better the bargains. Homes over $3million considered a Very Strong Buyers' Market, with only 9.9% of listings in contract on June 14. YTD units sold on June 15 were 799 compared to 805 on the same date last year, down 7/10ths of a point. Up until May 31, this number had been in positive terrtory for the year. Let's watch this trend carefully in coming weeks and keep in mind that tax incentives artificially inflated sales figures in the first half of last year as buyers rushed to make their purchases before the credits expired .
Condominium percentage in contract actually increased across the board since our report two weeks ago. Overall market up from 34.92% in contract on May 31 to 36.71% on June 14.
$0-$999k price range up to 38.19% in contract from 36.58% two weeks ago, and even the upper-end condo's eked out a gain, with 14% in contract compared to the May 31 figure of 5.56% for condo's over $1million. YTD condo units sold on June 15 were 219, 1.3% less than the year-ago figure of 222 units. Two weeks ago, we were at -1%. This also bears watching, but so far, we believe there is a considerable amount of activity in the Marin County real estate market and are encouraged by the number of open escrows at local brokerages and positive agent reports about local market activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, June 20, 2011
Monday, May 23, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.22.11
Hello Everyone,
La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in its monthly report dated May 16, fretted over Bay-Area sales declines in both unit sales volume and median price. But the article also cited encouraging statistics regarding decreasing foreclosure sales, sales to investors, all-cash buyers sales, as well as increased availability of adjustable rate and "jumbo" mortgages. The really good news for Marin County homeowners came in a chart at the end of the article. That table showed Marin County sales volume for April down only 1.6% from April of 2010, only about half the Bay Area average. Also, according to the index, the Marin County median sales price actually inceased .2 percent compared to the 2.7 percent average Bay Area decline for the period putting Marin in top position of the nine-county area.
Read the full article at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110516.aspx
After a torrid two months, the Marin County real estate market paused to catch its breath for the last couple of weeks. Local offices caught up on their paperwork and wondered what was going to happen next. Conversations with local agents reveal that agents and their clients are working really hard to put deals together, with buyers often making several offers on prospective homes before being successful. Multiple offers still with us, but mostly in much less dramatic fashion than in the years when appraisers were rubber-stamping deals on a regular basis. Agents, Buyers, and Sellers all acutely aware that if a loan is involved in the purchase transaction, the home will have to appraise at contract value for the deal to go through. Lots of all-cash deals still around though and these are not subject to appraisal. A recent story about a listing in the mid-$1million range that had 7 offers and went more than $200 K over asking price is a case in point of what can happen with all-cash deals. Still, this is the exception rather than the rule, and sellers are advised, as always, to focus their attention on preparation, pricing, presentation, and good-faith negotiation. Best source of information and advice for this is still a local REALTOR who is experienced in your market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending May 17, SFR listings had increased slightly, from 1087 to 1118. 334 of these, or 30.77% were in contract on that date, just slightly more than the 30.45% recorded on May 3. The under-$1million price range had 646 available units county-wide, and 253 of them, or about 39% were in contract on May 17, just about the same as last time, indicating this price range is just a bit of a sellers' market. $1million-$2million and $2million-$3million price ranges holding their own at 21.79% and 23.33% in contract, respectively. Both solid buyers' markets, and both representing great opportunities for buyers shopping for value in upper-end homes. Year to date unit sales at 628 on May 17, compared to the year-ago figure of 599, or up 5%. This, in spite of the fact that last year's buyer tax incentives are no longer with us.
Condo's
On May 17, there were 348 active condominium listings in the County, an increase of 22 units over the May 3 figure. 122 of these, or 35.06% were in contract, an increase from 32.52% at last report. 333 of the above units were priced under $1million. Of these, 36.04% were in contract, putting the category just into sellers' market territory. Just enough to make sellers feel good about their prospects, but not enough to be a pricing advantage. Condo pricing still very competitive. Buyers continue to shop for attractive deals, but they will buy when they perceive value. Condo YTD units sold at 179 on May 17, virtually unchanged from the year-ago figure of 178.
Everyone waiting to see what the next few weeks bring for Marin County real estate. Deals starting to come in again in the last few days, renewing optimism about the prospects for continued improvement during the second half of the year. We will know soon enough!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. see my website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in its monthly report dated May 16, fretted over Bay-Area sales declines in both unit sales volume and median price. But the article also cited encouraging statistics regarding decreasing foreclosure sales, sales to investors, all-cash buyers sales, as well as increased availability of adjustable rate and "jumbo" mortgages. The really good news for Marin County homeowners came in a chart at the end of the article. That table showed Marin County sales volume for April down only 1.6% from April of 2010, only about half the Bay Area average. Also, according to the index, the Marin County median sales price actually inceased .2 percent compared to the 2.7 percent average Bay Area decline for the period putting Marin in top position of the nine-county area.
Read the full article at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110516.aspx
After a torrid two months, the Marin County real estate market paused to catch its breath for the last couple of weeks. Local offices caught up on their paperwork and wondered what was going to happen next. Conversations with local agents reveal that agents and their clients are working really hard to put deals together, with buyers often making several offers on prospective homes before being successful. Multiple offers still with us, but mostly in much less dramatic fashion than in the years when appraisers were rubber-stamping deals on a regular basis. Agents, Buyers, and Sellers all acutely aware that if a loan is involved in the purchase transaction, the home will have to appraise at contract value for the deal to go through. Lots of all-cash deals still around though and these are not subject to appraisal. A recent story about a listing in the mid-$1million range that had 7 offers and went more than $200 K over asking price is a case in point of what can happen with all-cash deals. Still, this is the exception rather than the rule, and sellers are advised, as always, to focus their attention on preparation, pricing, presentation, and good-faith negotiation. Best source of information and advice for this is still a local REALTOR who is experienced in your market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending May 17, SFR listings had increased slightly, from 1087 to 1118. 334 of these, or 30.77% were in contract on that date, just slightly more than the 30.45% recorded on May 3. The under-$1million price range had 646 available units county-wide, and 253 of them, or about 39% were in contract on May 17, just about the same as last time, indicating this price range is just a bit of a sellers' market. $1million-$2million and $2million-$3million price ranges holding their own at 21.79% and 23.33% in contract, respectively. Both solid buyers' markets, and both representing great opportunities for buyers shopping for value in upper-end homes. Year to date unit sales at 628 on May 17, compared to the year-ago figure of 599, or up 5%. This, in spite of the fact that last year's buyer tax incentives are no longer with us.
Condo's
On May 17, there were 348 active condominium listings in the County, an increase of 22 units over the May 3 figure. 122 of these, or 35.06% were in contract, an increase from 32.52% at last report. 333 of the above units were priced under $1million. Of these, 36.04% were in contract, putting the category just into sellers' market territory. Just enough to make sellers feel good about their prospects, but not enough to be a pricing advantage. Condo pricing still very competitive. Buyers continue to shop for attractive deals, but they will buy when they perceive value. Condo YTD units sold at 179 on May 17, virtually unchanged from the year-ago figure of 178.
Everyone waiting to see what the next few weeks bring for Marin County real estate. Deals starting to come in again in the last few days, renewing optimism about the prospects for continued improvement during the second half of the year. We will know soon enough!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. see my website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.8.2011
Hello Everyone,
Well, it sure seems as if 2011 is streaking by us with the throttle stuck on "afterburner". Hard to believe it is May already, but the sunny weather is certainly welcome, and the buyers are out in droves. Agents report open houses well-attended, and local offices seeing large numbers of open escrows. At some locations, admins having trouble keeping up with all the open files--- not a bad problem to have after going through the last couple of years!
Coldwell Banker MarketQuest report for April shows accepted offers for April at 291 for Single Family Residences (SFR) and 86 for Condo's. This compares to April, 2010's 170/44 and 2009's 141/47, so there is significantly more activity in this year's market. The April ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 107% and for Condo's, it was 89.6%. For SFR's, this represents the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. For condo's, it is the highest since December of '09, which came in at 102%. We expect these kinds of numbers more during the Holidays, when folks are taking their homes off the market as much as they are putting new ones on, but in the spring, with growing inventory, it is a very favorable sign! As we have reported these numbers have been favorable and growing in recent months.
Mortgage rates, which had been rising, have trended down in the past few weeks, extending the opportunity for potential buyers chance to purchase their dream home at a price they could only dream of until recently! MarketQuest, confirming what we have read in recent articles shows the average price of homes sold in April down from March levels, for both SFR' s and Condo's. This a bit confusing, since the same report shows 3 month $/sq ft. prices up for both categories. SFR April level at $429/SF vs. March's $415. For Condo's, the April number was $309/SF vs. March's $297. Upon further investigation through Marin County MLS listing history, the average Condo or SFR sold in April was smaller than in March! The average size of an SFR sold in April was 2,155 SF compared to 2,302 in March, while the average size of a Condo sold in April was 1,294 SF compared to 1,324 in March. This certainly helps explain the decrease in selling prices from March to April.
City-by-City Report out this week shows that of the 13 towns and cities covered, 4 increased their percentage in contract, 6 decreased, and 3 remained essentially unchanged. Fairfax at the top of the heap, with 40% in contract. Novato next at 39+%. Corte Madera close behind at 38%. Larkspur and Greenbrae both hanging in nicely at about 35% and San Rafael just above 34%. Belvedere back down to 6%, with only 2 of 33 listed properties in contract as of May 3. A great opportunity for high-end buyers!
Wishing all Mothers the very best of everything on this beautiful Mothers' Day!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Well, it sure seems as if 2011 is streaking by us with the throttle stuck on "afterburner". Hard to believe it is May already, but the sunny weather is certainly welcome, and the buyers are out in droves. Agents report open houses well-attended, and local offices seeing large numbers of open escrows. At some locations, admins having trouble keeping up with all the open files--- not a bad problem to have after going through the last couple of years!
Coldwell Banker MarketQuest report for April shows accepted offers for April at 291 for Single Family Residences (SFR) and 86 for Condo's. This compares to April, 2010's 170/44 and 2009's 141/47, so there is significantly more activity in this year's market. The April ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 107% and for Condo's, it was 89.6%. For SFR's, this represents the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. For condo's, it is the highest since December of '09, which came in at 102%. We expect these kinds of numbers more during the Holidays, when folks are taking their homes off the market as much as they are putting new ones on, but in the spring, with growing inventory, it is a very favorable sign! As we have reported these numbers have been favorable and growing in recent months.
Mortgage rates, which had been rising, have trended down in the past few weeks, extending the opportunity for potential buyers chance to purchase their dream home at a price they could only dream of until recently! MarketQuest, confirming what we have read in recent articles shows the average price of homes sold in April down from March levels, for both SFR' s and Condo's. This a bit confusing, since the same report shows 3 month $/sq ft. prices up for both categories. SFR April level at $429/SF vs. March's $415. For Condo's, the April number was $309/SF vs. March's $297. Upon further investigation through Marin County MLS listing history, the average Condo or SFR sold in April was smaller than in March! The average size of an SFR sold in April was 2,155 SF compared to 2,302 in March, while the average size of a Condo sold in April was 1,294 SF compared to 1,324 in March. This certainly helps explain the decrease in selling prices from March to April.
City-by-City Report out this week shows that of the 13 towns and cities covered, 4 increased their percentage in contract, 6 decreased, and 3 remained essentially unchanged. Fairfax at the top of the heap, with 40% in contract. Novato next at 39+%. Corte Madera close behind at 38%. Larkspur and Greenbrae both hanging in nicely at about 35% and San Rafael just above 34%. Belvedere back down to 6%, with only 2 of 33 listed properties in contract as of May 3. A great opportunity for high-end buyers!
Wishing all Mothers the very best of everything on this beautiful Mothers' Day!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, April 25, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.24.11
San Diego-based DataQuick Information Systems, in an article dated April 14 noted:
Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off-------"
However, the chart at the bottom of the page shows Marin County leading the entire Bay Area in both numbers of sales (up 10.7% for March, year over year) and appreciation in the median selling price (+4.4% for March compared to the year-ago figure).
(Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110414.aspx )
The Wall Street Journal, in an April 21 article titled Mortgage Rates Fall; 30-Year Fixed at 4.8% remarked
"Mortgage rates fell in the latest week for the first time in more than a month, with the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages falling to 4.8%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of mortgage rates. ", adding " 'Low inflation is keeping mortgage rates at bay', said Freddie Chief Economist Frank Nothaft",
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703983704576277083168337572.html
So there is some happy news for buyers and sellers, and, theoretically, some incentive for buyers sitting on the proverbial fence to finally take advantage of a great opportunity while it lasts!
Marin County percentage in contract just a shade lower in all categories of both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums with the notable exception of the SFR $2million to $2.99 million price range, which went up, from 17.11% in contract at last report to 21.43% on April 19. Percentage in contract of all other price ranges for both SFR and Condo's down slightly, probably at least partially attributable to a recent increase in listings that had not yet been absorbed.
Local real estate offices very busy, with many deals going into contract. Significant numbers of multiple offers--- though still not going very far over asking price in most cases. Many agents cautiously upbeat about the prospects for the rest of the year, but aware that adverse news events and financial bumps in the road on the national and international scene can still trigger exaggerated effects on local real estate because they affect buyers' sense of security and willingness to make long-term financial commitments.
Banks still imposing strict standards on borrowers and not infrequently adding additional hoops for buyers to jump through as transactions progress. Not usually a problem for well-qualified borrowers. Buyers advised not to do anything to change their financial status during the escrow period--- includes making large credit card purchases, buying cars, boats, other big ticket items---- even furniture. If in doubt, check in with lender or mortgage broker beforehand!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off-------"
However, the chart at the bottom of the page shows Marin County leading the entire Bay Area in both numbers of sales (up 10.7% for March, year over year) and appreciation in the median selling price (+4.4% for March compared to the year-ago figure).
(Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110414.aspx )
The Wall Street Journal, in an April 21 article titled Mortgage Rates Fall; 30-Year Fixed at 4.8% remarked
"Mortgage rates fell in the latest week for the first time in more than a month, with the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages falling to 4.8%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of mortgage rates. ", adding " 'Low inflation is keeping mortgage rates at bay', said Freddie Chief Economist Frank Nothaft",
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703983704576277083168337572.html
So there is some happy news for buyers and sellers, and, theoretically, some incentive for buyers sitting on the proverbial fence to finally take advantage of a great opportunity while it lasts!
Marin County percentage in contract just a shade lower in all categories of both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums with the notable exception of the SFR $2million to $2.99 million price range, which went up, from 17.11% in contract at last report to 21.43% on April 19. Percentage in contract of all other price ranges for both SFR and Condo's down slightly, probably at least partially attributable to a recent increase in listings that had not yet been absorbed.
Local real estate offices very busy, with many deals going into contract. Significant numbers of multiple offers--- though still not going very far over asking price in most cases. Many agents cautiously upbeat about the prospects for the rest of the year, but aware that adverse news events and financial bumps in the road on the national and international scene can still trigger exaggerated effects on local real estate because they affect buyers' sense of security and willingness to make long-term financial commitments.
Banks still imposing strict standards on borrowers and not infrequently adding additional hoops for buyers to jump through as transactions progress. Not usually a problem for well-qualified borrowers. Buyers advised not to do anything to change their financial status during the escrow period--- includes making large credit card purchases, buying cars, boats, other big ticket items---- even furniture. If in doubt, check in with lender or mortgage broker beforehand!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.10.11
Hello Everyone,
CNN.Money.com staff writer Les Christie (and a lot of other people too) has been talking about a "double dip" housing recession. In a March 29 article "Home prices near a double dip", he wrote, "I think prices will drop another 5% to 10%.--------The double dip will hit in the next couple of months." (read the full article)
http://cnnmoney.mobi/primary/_T0o1le-iJAAuzZYl4
Mr. Christie is referring to the national housing market, an animal that barely exists, since it is composed of averages of thousands of individual markets which vary greatly from each other in their performance at any given point in time. And with regard to the national averages, Mr. Christie may or may not be right---- but he obviously hasn't been to Marin County recently!
Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest report for the period ending March 31 shows the following extremely encouraging statistics:
Single Family Residences:
Active inventory 647*. This is down from February's 754. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 1,078
Sold listings for March 168. An increase from February's 108. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 144.
Accepted offers for March, 307. In February it was 159. Last year in March it was 157.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 112%. February, 62.8%. Last March, 35.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 47.4%. February, 21.1%. Last March, 14.6% (yes, even with the stimulus program!)
Months supply of inventory 3.9. February, 7.0. Last March 7.5
Condominiums:
Active inventory 238*. This is down from February's 280. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 335.
Sold listings for March 52. An increase from February's 42. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 43.
Accepted offers for March 90. In February, it was 59. Last year in March, it was 57.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 109.8%. February, 67%. Last March 53.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 37.8%. February, 21.1%. Last March 17%.
Months supply of inventory 4.6. February, 6.7. Last March 7.8.
New "open" transaction files are being welcomed into Marin County real estate brokerages at an increasingly and encouragingly fast pace. Multiple offer situations becoming more common although not going wildly over asking prices as in the past, due to much stricter appraisals and lender standards as well as buyer reluctance. Lots of distressed property sales still working their way through the system also holding prices down and for the moment, mortgage rates are still excellent. This tremendous opportunity for Buyers Won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
CNN.Money.com staff writer Les Christie (and a lot of other people too) has been talking about a "double dip" housing recession. In a March 29 article "Home prices near a double dip", he wrote, "I think prices will drop another 5% to 10%.--------The double dip will hit in the next couple of months." (read the full article)
http://cnnmoney.mobi/primary/_T0o1le-iJAAuzZYl4
Mr. Christie is referring to the national housing market, an animal that barely exists, since it is composed of averages of thousands of individual markets which vary greatly from each other in their performance at any given point in time. And with regard to the national averages, Mr. Christie may or may not be right---- but he obviously hasn't been to Marin County recently!
Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest report for the period ending March 31 shows the following extremely encouraging statistics:
Single Family Residences:
Active inventory 647*. This is down from February's 754. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 1,078
Sold listings for March 168. An increase from February's 108. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 144.
Accepted offers for March, 307. In February it was 159. Last year in March it was 157.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 112%. February, 62.8%. Last March, 35.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 47.4%. February, 21.1%. Last March, 14.6% (yes, even with the stimulus program!)
Months supply of inventory 3.9. February, 7.0. Last March 7.5
Condominiums:
Active inventory 238*. This is down from February's 280. In March of 2010, the comparable number was 335.
Sold listings for March 52. An increase from February's 42. In March of 2010, even with the Housing Stimulus Program, the number was 43.
Accepted offers for March 90. In February, it was 59. Last year in March, it was 57.
Ratio of accepted offers to new listings 109.8%. February, 67%. Last March 53.8%.
Ratio of accepted offers to inventory 37.8%. February, 21.1%. Last March 17%.
Months supply of inventory 4.6. February, 6.7. Last March 7.8.
New "open" transaction files are being welcomed into Marin County real estate brokerages at an increasingly and encouragingly fast pace. Multiple offer situations becoming more common although not going wildly over asking prices as in the past, due to much stricter appraisals and lender standards as well as buyer reluctance. Lots of distressed property sales still working their way through the system also holding prices down and for the moment, mortgage rates are still excellent. This tremendous opportunity for Buyers Won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, March 21, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 03.13.11
Hello Everyone,
This is not the first time we have mentioned the quote about statistics attributed to Mark Twain, but the subject of this week's article compels us to make use of it again. The following excerpt from Wikipedia describes and encapsulates Twain's use of the phrase "Lies, damned lies, and statistics", though it reports that the origin of the quotation is disputed. See the full Wikipedia citation for an interesting read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed. The most plausible, given current evidence, is Englishman Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843–1911).
Whatever the origin of the idea that statistics can be manipulated to support multiple positions, it is certainly a concept that is germane to the subject of this week's report.
Inventory has been building slowly but consistently for the last several weeks, for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's, and sales have been gaining momentum, particularly in Condo's and SFR's priced under $1million. 40.47% of MLS-listed SFR's under $1million were in contract as of March 15 even though overall SFR percentage in contract decreased about one and a half points, from 33.49% to 31.99%, largely on soft sales in the $1-3 million range. Sales of homes over $3million defied the trend, and actually increased from 7.59% in contract to 10.87% in contract. Overall days on market (DOM) for YTD sold SFR properties at 128 as of March 15. YTD SFR units sold as of 3.15.10 were 279, up 4.9% from the same period last year. This, all the more significant because of the artificial bump that sales received from the buyer tax incentives in the first half of 2010. Condo sales showing a similar, but even more pronounced trend, with percentage in contract of units under $1million at 35.25% and overall YTD condo unit sales of 96 up 14.3% from the 84 units sold in the same period last year.
We have mentioned a number of times in previous reports that in spite of percentages in contract that have historically been recognized as sellers' markets, sellers currently experience very limited ability to push the price envelope in this market climate. We have recognized for some time that the characterization of the market as "Buyers", "Sellers", etc. might bear some adjustment due to changes brought about by the large percentage of distressed sales in the Marin County real estate market, and we will try to explain why we feel that way. (Thank you, Mr. Twain)
During the period from January 1 to March 15, there were approximately 374 unit sales of SFR's and Condo's. The average sales price was $756,637, DOM were 134, and the average ratio of sales price to list price was 94.5%. Out of this total, approximately 147 units were what we would call "normal sales". Their combined average sales price was $981,132, DOM were 103, and the ratio of sales price to list price was about 93%. REO's, (real estate owned, or repossessions) accounted for approximately 65 units of the total. The average sales price of those units was $481,218, DOM were only 89, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 98.4%. Short sales accounted for approximately 36 units of the total. The average DOM were 243. Average sales price was $519,102, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 97%. There are several other sales segments that are not included here, so the examples listed do not add up to total YTD sales. But, from the examples it is easy to see that a characterization of the overall market does not necessarily represent a marketing prediction for any particular segment or specific home. What the overall view does do, if it is applied consistently over time, is show market movement and market trends. Consistency is normally considered a virtue, however, when conditions change, it is sometimes necessary to make adjustments. We believe that the abnormally long sale and escrow process for some types of distressed sales sales is inflating the percentage in contract to a significant degree. To characterize the market more accurately, we plan to adjust the percentages in contract that we use to describe the various kinds of markets. We will do this beginning with our next report, which marks the start of a new calendar quarter.
However we label the various segments, current market activity seems quite brisk, the atmosphere is upbeat, and the year ahead looks hopeful. We look forward to being able to continue to report to you on this positive note.
Until next time, wishing you all the best,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
This is not the first time we have mentioned the quote about statistics attributed to Mark Twain, but the subject of this week's article compels us to make use of it again. The following excerpt from Wikipedia describes and encapsulates Twain's use of the phrase "Lies, damned lies, and statistics", though it reports that the origin of the quotation is disputed. See the full Wikipedia citation for an interesting read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed. The most plausible, given current evidence, is Englishman Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843–1911).
Whatever the origin of the idea that statistics can be manipulated to support multiple positions, it is certainly a concept that is germane to the subject of this week's report.
Inventory has been building slowly but consistently for the last several weeks, for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's, and sales have been gaining momentum, particularly in Condo's and SFR's priced under $1million. 40.47% of MLS-listed SFR's under $1million were in contract as of March 15 even though overall SFR percentage in contract decreased about one and a half points, from 33.49% to 31.99%, largely on soft sales in the $1-3 million range. Sales of homes over $3million defied the trend, and actually increased from 7.59% in contract to 10.87% in contract. Overall days on market (DOM) for YTD sold SFR properties at 128 as of March 15. YTD SFR units sold as of 3.15.10 were 279, up 4.9% from the same period last year. This, all the more significant because of the artificial bump that sales received from the buyer tax incentives in the first half of 2010. Condo sales showing a similar, but even more pronounced trend, with percentage in contract of units under $1million at 35.25% and overall YTD condo unit sales of 96 up 14.3% from the 84 units sold in the same period last year.
We have mentioned a number of times in previous reports that in spite of percentages in contract that have historically been recognized as sellers' markets, sellers currently experience very limited ability to push the price envelope in this market climate. We have recognized for some time that the characterization of the market as "Buyers", "Sellers", etc. might bear some adjustment due to changes brought about by the large percentage of distressed sales in the Marin County real estate market, and we will try to explain why we feel that way. (Thank you, Mr. Twain)
During the period from January 1 to March 15, there were approximately 374 unit sales of SFR's and Condo's. The average sales price was $756,637, DOM were 134, and the average ratio of sales price to list price was 94.5%. Out of this total, approximately 147 units were what we would call "normal sales". Their combined average sales price was $981,132, DOM were 103, and the ratio of sales price to list price was about 93%. REO's, (real estate owned, or repossessions) accounted for approximately 65 units of the total. The average sales price of those units was $481,218, DOM were only 89, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 98.4%. Short sales accounted for approximately 36 units of the total. The average DOM were 243. Average sales price was $519,102, and the ratio of sales price to list price was 97%. There are several other sales segments that are not included here, so the examples listed do not add up to total YTD sales. But, from the examples it is easy to see that a characterization of the overall market does not necessarily represent a marketing prediction for any particular segment or specific home. What the overall view does do, if it is applied consistently over time, is show market movement and market trends. Consistency is normally considered a virtue, however, when conditions change, it is sometimes necessary to make adjustments. We believe that the abnormally long sale and escrow process for some types of distressed sales sales is inflating the percentage in contract to a significant degree. To characterize the market more accurately, we plan to adjust the percentages in contract that we use to describe the various kinds of markets. We will do this beginning with our next report, which marks the start of a new calendar quarter.
However we label the various segments, current market activity seems quite brisk, the atmosphere is upbeat, and the year ahead looks hopeful. We look forward to being able to continue to report to you on this positive note.
Until next time, wishing you all the best,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, March 7, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 03.06.11
Hello Everyone,
Events in the Middle East had just about everyone guessing and the financial markets rocking and rolling this week. Gasoline again up around $4 a gallon. Dow Jones managed to eke out a small gain for the week after a dramatic drop on Tuesday, a big recovery on Thursday, and an unstable market on Friday with a triple-digit drop that was erased by the end of the day, leaving a .3% gain for the week. See Wall St Journal online:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703300904576178612184267474.html
Freddie Mac, in a March 3 report, showed a current aveage rate for a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage (in the western region) of 4.83%, noting that this was the third week of improving mortgage rates. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/release.html
HSH.com, a financial publishing service, notes, in a February 25 article "That improvement is largely related to a flight-to-safety buy of Treasury bonds. Yields on ten-year US Treasuries (which influence fixed mortgage rates) have dropped by perhaps 20 basis points or so over that time, dragging mortgage rates in the same direction, if to a lesser degree." The article, referring to investors' reaction to the continued instability in the Middle East, goes on to say: "As long as the US remains the place to stash cash when these global events occur, at least some benefit will accrue to American mortgage seekers. However, these events and any benefits are of unpredictable duration, so folks actively engaged in the mortgage process would do well to move quickly to lock in rates and secure transactions." http://www.hsh.com/trends.html
Here in Marin County, there is quite a bit of encouraging real estate activity. One bit of news that looks disappointing at first but, upon further examination appears much more hopeful, is the spike in Days on Market (DOM) for sold properties. According to CB MarketQuest, average DOM for YTD sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) spiked from 117 in January to 160 in February. The numbers for Condo's were similar, 108 average DOM in January, jumping to 140 in February. In both cases, these numbers appear to represent the sale of properties that had been on the market for extended periods of time, significantly raising the average sales time when included with other recently sold properties. To understand this, we need to look at inventory levels, which remain persistently low due to many sellers' reluctance to place their properties on the market to compete with distressed sales that hold average prices down. In addition, the traditional spring sales period is still a few weeks in the future. According to MarketQuest, active inventory at the end of February was 552 units for SFR's and 212 for Condo's (differs from MLS figures due to how properties in contract are counted). For SFR's, this figure compares to 877 units in February of '10 and 935 in '09. For Condo's, the February '10 figure was 310 units and in '09, it was 329.
There has been a surge in buyer activity, with 244 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's in February, both figures representing the largest numbers in over 2 years. This, according to MarketQuest's statistics, has resulted in a very low months supply of inventory (MSI) --- 5.5 for SFR's and 5.3 for Condo's. This attrition of inventory helps to explain the dramatically increased figures for DOM, as buyers with limited choices dig deep into the pool of older, unslold properties, and sellers with enhanced market awareness born of long experience make deals to put their properties in escrow. Please see attached SFR and Condo Market Action Reports for more numbers and details on the local market.
The popular City-by-City Analysis out this week shows 6 of 13 towns and cities covered as strong or very strong sellers' markets, with in excess of 35% of listed properties in contract.
Kentfield leading the pack, with an astonishing 47% in contract. Novato next in line with 41.73%, or 111 of 266 properties, and Corte Madera close behind, with 41.18%. Belvedere still at the bottom of the heap, but with a big improvement at 14.29% in contract compared to last month's 3.33%. Overall, 33.49% of SFR's and 32.6% of Condo's listed for sale on March 1 were in contract. (These figures from Marin County MLS). Sellers should be encouraged by these results but need to remain aware that this market is price sensitive and finely-balanced. Competition from distressed sales keeps a lid on prices, with, of course, exceptions for certain very special or unique properties. Lenders' appraisals continue to be very rigorous too. Not that unusual to see purchase prices adjusted downward following lender appraisal.
Locally, lots of agents looking forward to the spring market with anticipation. Professional REALTORS who know your market still the best source of information on your specific neighborhood.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Events in the Middle East had just about everyone guessing and the financial markets rocking and rolling this week. Gasoline again up around $4 a gallon. Dow Jones managed to eke out a small gain for the week after a dramatic drop on Tuesday, a big recovery on Thursday, and an unstable market on Friday with a triple-digit drop that was erased by the end of the day, leaving a .3% gain for the week. See Wall St Journal online:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703300904576178612184267474.html
Freddie Mac, in a March 3 report, showed a current aveage rate for a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage (in the western region) of 4.83%, noting that this was the third week of improving mortgage rates. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/release.html
HSH.com, a financial publishing service, notes, in a February 25 article "That improvement is largely related to a flight-to-safety buy of Treasury bonds. Yields on ten-year US Treasuries (which influence fixed mortgage rates) have dropped by perhaps 20 basis points or so over that time, dragging mortgage rates in the same direction, if to a lesser degree." The article, referring to investors' reaction to the continued instability in the Middle East, goes on to say: "As long as the US remains the place to stash cash when these global events occur, at least some benefit will accrue to American mortgage seekers. However, these events and any benefits are of unpredictable duration, so folks actively engaged in the mortgage process would do well to move quickly to lock in rates and secure transactions." http://www.hsh.com/trends.html
Here in Marin County, there is quite a bit of encouraging real estate activity. One bit of news that looks disappointing at first but, upon further examination appears much more hopeful, is the spike in Days on Market (DOM) for sold properties. According to CB MarketQuest, average DOM for YTD sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) spiked from 117 in January to 160 in February. The numbers for Condo's were similar, 108 average DOM in January, jumping to 140 in February. In both cases, these numbers appear to represent the sale of properties that had been on the market for extended periods of time, significantly raising the average sales time when included with other recently sold properties. To understand this, we need to look at inventory levels, which remain persistently low due to many sellers' reluctance to place their properties on the market to compete with distressed sales that hold average prices down. In addition, the traditional spring sales period is still a few weeks in the future. According to MarketQuest, active inventory at the end of February was 552 units for SFR's and 212 for Condo's (differs from MLS figures due to how properties in contract are counted). For SFR's, this figure compares to 877 units in February of '10 and 935 in '09. For Condo's, the February '10 figure was 310 units and in '09, it was 329.
There has been a surge in buyer activity, with 244 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's in February, both figures representing the largest numbers in over 2 years. This, according to MarketQuest's statistics, has resulted in a very low months supply of inventory (MSI) --- 5.5 for SFR's and 5.3 for Condo's. This attrition of inventory helps to explain the dramatically increased figures for DOM, as buyers with limited choices dig deep into the pool of older, unslold properties, and sellers with enhanced market awareness born of long experience make deals to put their properties in escrow. Please see attached SFR and Condo Market Action Reports for more numbers and details on the local market.
The popular City-by-City Analysis out this week shows 6 of 13 towns and cities covered as strong or very strong sellers' markets, with in excess of 35% of listed properties in contract.
Kentfield leading the pack, with an astonishing 47% in contract. Novato next in line with 41.73%, or 111 of 266 properties, and Corte Madera close behind, with 41.18%. Belvedere still at the bottom of the heap, but with a big improvement at 14.29% in contract compared to last month's 3.33%. Overall, 33.49% of SFR's and 32.6% of Condo's listed for sale on March 1 were in contract. (These figures from Marin County MLS). Sellers should be encouraged by these results but need to remain aware that this market is price sensitive and finely-balanced. Competition from distressed sales keeps a lid on prices, with, of course, exceptions for certain very special or unique properties. Lenders' appraisals continue to be very rigorous too. Not that unusual to see purchase prices adjusted downward following lender appraisal.
Locally, lots of agents looking forward to the spring market with anticipation. Professional REALTORS who know your market still the best source of information on your specific neighborhood.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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