Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
SFR market coming in last week with a pleasant surprise---inventory down slightly to 1167 from 1171 the previous week. Percentage in contract up in all SFR price points except the high end- over $3 million which decreased based on a change of only 3 additional listings and 2 fewer properties in contract. Big news in Marin County SFR's last week was that the $0-$999K price point went into "balanced market" territory from "buyers", and the $2 million to $3 million segment made the jump from buyers' to sellers' market territory with an increase from 23.7% to 27%. Whether this represents a true market turning point or is a result of fewer than normal new listings in the "pre-holiday" period remains to be seen. Based on open escrows though, it appears the the SFR market is ticking along nicely. YTD SFR units sold at 547 vs 838 at this time last year, or down 34.7% nearly even with last week's statistic of -34.2%.
Condo inventory increased during the week, but not by much--2 units, to be exact. And units in contract increased enough to bring overall condo percentage in contract up to 23.5. The under $1million range, representing all but 18 of listed condo's fared even better, increasing to 24.48% in contract, with its chest against the tape, ready to break through into the "balanced market" range for the first time in a long time. Condo YTD sold units at 140 vs. last year's 218 at the same time. Still lower, but continuing to narrow the gap which now sits at -35.7% vs. -37% last week.
La Jolla-based Data Quick, the real estate statistics source used by many media outlets, came around this week after "draping crepe" for quite some time now. A May 20 article stated:
"Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability is improving and that an increasing number of fence sitters have decided they like today's lower prices, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area in April. That was up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 for April 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The month-to-month jump was the strongest for any March/April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. "
This reference courtesy of CB SF Bay President Larry Klapow. Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080520.aspx
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 30, 2008
Saturday, May 24, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.20.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com )
The Marin County real estate market continues to perk along, albeit at a lower level than the last two years, but within that framework it is holding its own. Several newspaper articles in the past week, from the national level on down to our own Marin IJ ran articles referencing improving conditions in real estate. Some excerpts from the IJ article (May 21):
"You are starting to see people move into the market, attracted by the low prices"--- "We are as close to a buyer's market as we are likely to be"- Corina Rollins, College of Marin Real Estate Instructor
"Marin remains 'a unique market that doesn't seem to be too concerned with the ups and downs of mainstream meat and potatoes real estate in the state of California' "--- "The issues that seem to concern Marin homeowners are not the issues that concern 97 percent of homeowners"- DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, who was also quoted as saying that Marin was the first county in the state to exceed a million-dollar median price one year ago "And Marin is going to be the first to re-cross it".
So, in the press, gloom and doom are no longer the order of the day, and since the media normally lag these trends by several months, it is probably safe to say that our recovery is underway. That being said, the local market took a breather last week from its recent steady improvement. Inventory increased slightly, and percentage in contract was mixed, with some up, some down, but only fractionally, so for all intents and purposes it was a pretty level week. Accepted offers so far this month are 189 for SFR, vs. 236 for the entire month of May last year, and Condo's 49, month to date vs. 07's 54 total for the month. My guess is we'll get there or we'll get very close. YTD units sold for both SFR (-34%) and Condo (-37%) remained even on the boards, compared to last week's figures.
Local real estate offices enjoying an influx of new open escrows, and many agents upbeat about the state of the market. Long Holiday weekend probably puts a slight damper on sales activity for the next week, but is actually a great time for serious buyers to hang in there and beat the crowds----an opportunity to sidestep some of the potential competition.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com )
The Marin County real estate market continues to perk along, albeit at a lower level than the last two years, but within that framework it is holding its own. Several newspaper articles in the past week, from the national level on down to our own Marin IJ ran articles referencing improving conditions in real estate. Some excerpts from the IJ article (May 21):
"You are starting to see people move into the market, attracted by the low prices"--- "We are as close to a buyer's market as we are likely to be"- Corina Rollins, College of Marin Real Estate Instructor
"Marin remains 'a unique market that doesn't seem to be too concerned with the ups and downs of mainstream meat and potatoes real estate in the state of California' "--- "The issues that seem to concern Marin homeowners are not the issues that concern 97 percent of homeowners"- DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, who was also quoted as saying that Marin was the first county in the state to exceed a million-dollar median price one year ago "And Marin is going to be the first to re-cross it".
So, in the press, gloom and doom are no longer the order of the day, and since the media normally lag these trends by several months, it is probably safe to say that our recovery is underway. That being said, the local market took a breather last week from its recent steady improvement. Inventory increased slightly, and percentage in contract was mixed, with some up, some down, but only fractionally, so for all intents and purposes it was a pretty level week. Accepted offers so far this month are 189 for SFR, vs. 236 for the entire month of May last year, and Condo's 49, month to date vs. 07's 54 total for the month. My guess is we'll get there or we'll get very close. YTD units sold for both SFR (-34%) and Condo (-37%) remained even on the boards, compared to last week's figures.
Local real estate offices enjoying an influx of new open escrows, and many agents upbeat about the state of the market. Long Holiday weekend probably puts a slight damper on sales activity for the next week, but is actually a great time for serious buyers to hang in there and beat the crowds----an opportunity to sidestep some of the potential competition.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 16, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.13.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Open houses well-attended. Lots of new open escrows. A number of multiple offers, some over asking price. Some properties selling quickly too. Still quite a bit of buyer/seller negotiation going on though, especially homes that have been on the market for a while.
Inventory up again this week in all categories and percentage in contract up too, in most, but not all price points. Exceptions are: SFR's from $1M to $1.99M, dropping less than half a point, SFR's over $3m, down 1.5 points; Condo's overall, down one tenth of a point, largely due to the over $1M segment with very very small segment size, and on the strength of only a 1 unit change. Condo's in the $0-$999K range actually picking up 2 tenths of a point, ending at 23.6% in contract. Seems that buyers are quietly recognizing the value of condo's at present prices in this market and buying now.
YTD unit sales continue to be off significantly from last year, but going in the right direction. SFR's narrowed the gap from -35.5% to -34.2% and Condo's showing improvement from -39% to -37% from May 6-13.
Hotsheet shows 74 new SFR listings during the week, and 66 contingent, with most of the new listings being absorbed. 32 new condo listings and 19 contingent. Days on market for SFR's =82, compared to 75 at this time last year. Condo's, 94 vs. 77 at this time in 2007.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Open houses well-attended. Lots of new open escrows. A number of multiple offers, some over asking price. Some properties selling quickly too. Still quite a bit of buyer/seller negotiation going on though, especially homes that have been on the market for a while.
Inventory up again this week in all categories and percentage in contract up too, in most, but not all price points. Exceptions are: SFR's from $1M to $1.99M, dropping less than half a point, SFR's over $3m, down 1.5 points; Condo's overall, down one tenth of a point, largely due to the over $1M segment with very very small segment size, and on the strength of only a 1 unit change. Condo's in the $0-$999K range actually picking up 2 tenths of a point, ending at 23.6% in contract. Seems that buyers are quietly recognizing the value of condo's at present prices in this market and buying now.
YTD unit sales continue to be off significantly from last year, but going in the right direction. SFR's narrowed the gap from -35.5% to -34.2% and Condo's showing improvement from -39% to -37% from May 6-13.
Hotsheet shows 74 new SFR listings during the week, and 66 contingent, with most of the new listings being absorbed. 32 new condo listings and 19 contingent. Days on market for SFR's =82, compared to 75 at this time last year. Condo's, 94 vs. 77 at this time in 2007.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.06.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows a number of changes. Keep in mind that many of these towns and cities represent small markets, so a few new listings or a few extra homes sold can cause swings that don't necessarily represent the direction of the market. Items of note: Greenbrae, last month a (very)strong buyers' market with 0 of 18 properties in contract now buyers' with 5 of 26 properties, or 19.2% in contract. Kentfield, moved from strong sellers' with 38% in contract (12 of 31) to buyers' at 17.65% (6 of 34), and Ross, which was a strong buyers' market at 8.33% (1 of 12) now a balanced market with 5 of 20 properties in contract, or 25%. San Rafael, continuing its improvement, moved up again from 21.5% in contract to 22.49%---still a buyers' market, but not by much. This in spite of 63 additional listings since the last report. Buyers looking at San Rafael still in a good position, but probably will not benefit from further waiting if "sitting on the fence". Novato, with 37 more listings than the last report, took a slight pause from its recent gains, but percentage in contract, currently 19.7%, lost only about 3/4 of a point. Corte Madera, a perennial favorite, enjoyed a tremendous rebound, moving from buyers' at 24% in contract to sellers' at 32.6% in contract--- this in spite of a large increase in listings (from 29 to 49).
Condominium and Single Family Residence Inventory both up again. Levels marginally higher than this time the last couple of years, but YTD unit sales improved again last week to -36%Condo and -35.5% SFR (compared to this time in 2007).
Office activity brisk, with lots of new open files, and many closing too! Much talk among agents of quick sales and multiple offers, which are back again, but still not the rule by any means. Many indicators point to an active and improving spring market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows a number of changes. Keep in mind that many of these towns and cities represent small markets, so a few new listings or a few extra homes sold can cause swings that don't necessarily represent the direction of the market. Items of note: Greenbrae, last month a (very)strong buyers' market with 0 of 18 properties in contract now buyers' with 5 of 26 properties, or 19.2% in contract. Kentfield, moved from strong sellers' with 38% in contract (12 of 31) to buyers' at 17.65% (6 of 34), and Ross, which was a strong buyers' market at 8.33% (1 of 12) now a balanced market with 5 of 20 properties in contract, or 25%. San Rafael, continuing its improvement, moved up again from 21.5% in contract to 22.49%---still a buyers' market, but not by much. This in spite of 63 additional listings since the last report. Buyers looking at San Rafael still in a good position, but probably will not benefit from further waiting if "sitting on the fence". Novato, with 37 more listings than the last report, took a slight pause from its recent gains, but percentage in contract, currently 19.7%, lost only about 3/4 of a point. Corte Madera, a perennial favorite, enjoyed a tremendous rebound, moving from buyers' at 24% in contract to sellers' at 32.6% in contract--- this in spite of a large increase in listings (from 29 to 49).
Condominium and Single Family Residence Inventory both up again. Levels marginally higher than this time the last couple of years, but YTD unit sales improved again last week to -36%Condo and -35.5% SFR (compared to this time in 2007).
Office activity brisk, with lots of new open files, and many closing too! Much talk among agents of quick sales and multiple offers, which are back again, but still not the rule by any means. Many indicators point to an active and improving spring market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 2, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.29.2008
Hello Everyone,
Percentage in contract of both SFR's and Condo's continued to increase last week, following the recent trend. Two exceptions to this were: SFR's in the $1M to $1.99M range, falling less than 1%, but enough to move from "balanced" to "buyers' " (In my opinion not enough of a move to be significant); Condo's in the $1M to $1.99M range, losing 5%, but due to the small size of that market, representing only 1 unit, again, not significant. SFR's over $3M still "strong buyers' " with 13 of 93 properties on the market in contract. A great opportunity for high-end buyers to negotiate.
There were 244 accepted offers on Single Family residences in April. This was the greatest number of accepted offers in the 23 months that my (MarketQuest) report showed, and represented 27% of inventory, and 79% of new listings. In April of last year, there were 216 accepted offers representing 24% of inventory. There were 66 accepted offers on condo's, representing 21% of inventory and 88% of new listings. Again, this number was the highest in the last 23 months, and compared to 54 accepted offers (18% of inventory) in April of 2007.
The Marin County real estate market does appear to be improving, with many market segments approaching "balanced", or even venturing into or close to "sellers' " territory. Reduced YTD unit sales (-36.6% SFR and 39%Condo vs. 2007) make this a time to be careful about pricing, preparation, presentation and thorough with marketing. But not a time to test the market with high prices. Properties that warrant more than the asking price usually attract multiple offers, while overpriced properties often sit on the market, ultimately selling for less than if they had been properly priced at the outset. Market in general is active, with attractive, well-priced properties going into contract quickly. Buyers and sellers have good opportunity here.
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Percentage in contract of both SFR's and Condo's continued to increase last week, following the recent trend. Two exceptions to this were: SFR's in the $1M to $1.99M range, falling less than 1%, but enough to move from "balanced" to "buyers' " (In my opinion not enough of a move to be significant); Condo's in the $1M to $1.99M range, losing 5%, but due to the small size of that market, representing only 1 unit, again, not significant. SFR's over $3M still "strong buyers' " with 13 of 93 properties on the market in contract. A great opportunity for high-end buyers to negotiate.
There were 244 accepted offers on Single Family residences in April. This was the greatest number of accepted offers in the 23 months that my (MarketQuest) report showed, and represented 27% of inventory, and 79% of new listings. In April of last year, there were 216 accepted offers representing 24% of inventory. There were 66 accepted offers on condo's, representing 21% of inventory and 88% of new listings. Again, this number was the highest in the last 23 months, and compared to 54 accepted offers (18% of inventory) in April of 2007.
The Marin County real estate market does appear to be improving, with many market segments approaching "balanced", or even venturing into or close to "sellers' " territory. Reduced YTD unit sales (-36.6% SFR and 39%Condo vs. 2007) make this a time to be careful about pricing, preparation, presentation and thorough with marketing. But not a time to test the market with high prices. Properties that warrant more than the asking price usually attract multiple offers, while overpriced properties often sit on the market, ultimately selling for less than if they had been properly priced at the outset. Market in general is active, with attractive, well-priced properties going into contract quickly. Buyers and sellers have good opportunity here.
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monday, April 28, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.22.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
It is good to be back in Marin, where I have spent the week talking with agents and lenders about their opinions on the current state of the local real estate market. "Make sure you tell them about the multiple offers" excalimed one prominent agent referring to the three offers and quick close on a recent listing. A leading Marin County mortgage broker assured me that they have never failed to to obtain a loan for a well-qualified client. The lenders are just making them jump through a few more hoops now. Agents tell me the market is active, and the REO's are selling as lenders do what is necessary to get these non-performing "assets" off their books. But they also tell me many buyers are circling, waiting to get the perfect deal, or waiting for the market to go lower. From the point of view of an agent, it is surprising that every bit of inventory is not flying off the shelf. So rarely is it that prices in Marin go down, that this seems an opportunity not to be missed. But last week, the gap in YTD unit sales between 2007 and 2008 increased again for both condo's and SFR's (both down 37%). YTD average sold prices on condo's are down about 6.8% vs this time in 2007, and average ytd sold prices for SFR's down about 1.9%. My economics professor told me that the market is always right, and I can't argue with that. But there is such a thing as waiting too long. We will not recognize the bottom of the market until we have passed it. Smart buyers and investors try to find good deals rather than market bottoms, and there are certainly many good deals out there now. Many sellers of homes on the market over 30 days have not reduced their asking prices but would be willing to negotiate on reasonable offers from qualified buyers.
Inventory is up again for both SFR's and condo's, and percentage in contract continues to advance as well. SFR's in the $1million to $1.99 million range finally made it to "balanced" this week, at slightly over 25% in contract. SFR percentages in contract all increased, with the exception of the $2million to $2.99 million range, which dropped less than 1 point. Condominium percentage in contract also up, except in the $1million to $1.99 million range, and that reduction hinged on the sale of only one unit.
Tremendous opportunity in this market. Ask your real estate professional for the city by city average sold prices back to 1965, and see for yourself!
More next week.
Until then, good luck and best wishes,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
It is good to be back in Marin, where I have spent the week talking with agents and lenders about their opinions on the current state of the local real estate market. "Make sure you tell them about the multiple offers" excalimed one prominent agent referring to the three offers and quick close on a recent listing. A leading Marin County mortgage broker assured me that they have never failed to to obtain a loan for a well-qualified client. The lenders are just making them jump through a few more hoops now. Agents tell me the market is active, and the REO's are selling as lenders do what is necessary to get these non-performing "assets" off their books. But they also tell me many buyers are circling, waiting to get the perfect deal, or waiting for the market to go lower. From the point of view of an agent, it is surprising that every bit of inventory is not flying off the shelf. So rarely is it that prices in Marin go down, that this seems an opportunity not to be missed. But last week, the gap in YTD unit sales between 2007 and 2008 increased again for both condo's and SFR's (both down 37%). YTD average sold prices on condo's are down about 6.8% vs this time in 2007, and average ytd sold prices for SFR's down about 1.9%. My economics professor told me that the market is always right, and I can't argue with that. But there is such a thing as waiting too long. We will not recognize the bottom of the market until we have passed it. Smart buyers and investors try to find good deals rather than market bottoms, and there are certainly many good deals out there now. Many sellers of homes on the market over 30 days have not reduced their asking prices but would be willing to negotiate on reasonable offers from qualified buyers.
Inventory is up again for both SFR's and condo's, and percentage in contract continues to advance as well. SFR's in the $1million to $1.99 million range finally made it to "balanced" this week, at slightly over 25% in contract. SFR percentages in contract all increased, with the exception of the $2million to $2.99 million range, which dropped less than 1 point. Condominium percentage in contract also up, except in the $1million to $1.99 million range, and that reduction hinged on the sale of only one unit.
Tremendous opportunity in this market. Ask your real estate professional for the city by city average sold prices back to 1965, and see for yourself!
More next week.
Until then, good luck and best wishes,
Fred
Saturday, April 19, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.15.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The writer continues to travel on the east coast, and will return to California on Monday. Beautiful spring weather here, and large, newer homes in good areas sell for $300-500K. Some of these homes would go for up to $3,000,000 in selected areas of Marin County.
Spring sellers of Single Family Residences and Condominiums in Marin County continue to drive normal seasonal increase in inventory again this week. Listings up in all price ranges again, and percentage in contract up in nearly all categories as well. The only exception is SFR's over $3million--- still a strong buyers' market. Everything else a buyers' market and steadily moving towards balanced. Condo's continue to narrow the gap between this year's ytd unit sales and last, now down 33.8% vs. last week's -37%. Days on market 94 now vs. 79 last year, average list price $601,897 vs 2007's $639,519, and average sold price currently $587,409 compared to $630,520 a year ago. SFR's still sluggish compared to last year, with ytd unit sales down 34.9%. There was a typo on last week's report showing -39%. The figure should have been -34.3%, so this week's number reprents a slight additional slippage. Average SFR list price is currently $1,396,228 vs $1,366,502 last year and average sold $ are $1,340,273 vs. $1,335,321 in 2007 so, although unit sales are down, prices are up slightly. Days on market are 85 vs 82 at this time last year. Marin housing market still active, but very sensitive to value and price, so pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical. Evidencing this is the fact there were 53 price reductions on SFR's and 23 on condo's in the April 2-8 period.
Lots of stories in the news about well qualified buyers having trouble getting loans, and how this impedes the real estate market. It is critical for buyers to establish a relationship with a reputable, experienced lender or broker very early on in the process of buying a home. Buyers should be pre-approved, meaning that their application has been approved by an underwriter and is subject only to specific items such as appraisal, etc., per the lender's specifications. Sellers and their agents should include a careful consideration of the potential buyer's financial/loan/lender status in their evaluation of offers on their properties. This will help transactions to proceed smoothly and speedily.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The writer continues to travel on the east coast, and will return to California on Monday. Beautiful spring weather here, and large, newer homes in good areas sell for $300-500K. Some of these homes would go for up to $3,000,000 in selected areas of Marin County.
Spring sellers of Single Family Residences and Condominiums in Marin County continue to drive normal seasonal increase in inventory again this week. Listings up in all price ranges again, and percentage in contract up in nearly all categories as well. The only exception is SFR's over $3million--- still a strong buyers' market. Everything else a buyers' market and steadily moving towards balanced. Condo's continue to narrow the gap between this year's ytd unit sales and last, now down 33.8% vs. last week's -37%. Days on market 94 now vs. 79 last year, average list price $601,897 vs 2007's $639,519, and average sold price currently $587,409 compared to $630,520 a year ago. SFR's still sluggish compared to last year, with ytd unit sales down 34.9%. There was a typo on last week's report showing -39%. The figure should have been -34.3%, so this week's number reprents a slight additional slippage. Average SFR list price is currently $1,396,228 vs $1,366,502 last year and average sold $ are $1,340,273 vs. $1,335,321 in 2007 so, although unit sales are down, prices are up slightly. Days on market are 85 vs 82 at this time last year. Marin housing market still active, but very sensitive to value and price, so pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical. Evidencing this is the fact there were 53 price reductions on SFR's and 23 on condo's in the April 2-8 period.
Lots of stories in the news about well qualified buyers having trouble getting loans, and how this impedes the real estate market. It is critical for buyers to establish a relationship with a reputable, experienced lender or broker very early on in the process of buying a home. Buyers should be pre-approved, meaning that their application has been approved by an underwriter and is subject only to specific items such as appraisal, etc., per the lender's specifications. Sellers and their agents should include a careful consideration of the potential buyer's financial/loan/lender status in their evaluation of offers on their properties. This will help transactions to proceed smoothly and speedily.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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